Consequences of the cold air outbreak. First snow of the winter now in Lahti, Finland 🌨️

Published today in Earth System Science Data: The Global Carbon Budget 2025 essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...

The ensemble mean from today's IFS subseasonal run almost predicts the earliest major sudden stratospheric warming on record 😮 Will be interesting to see if this signal progresses as it is just on the cusp of typical SSW prediction lead-times – daily runs of 101 members can still vary a fair bit

📢Global Carbon Budget 2025📢 Fossil CO2 emissions continue to rise in 2025 while the terrestrial carbon sink recovers to pre-El Niño strength. The key findings are covered in two reports this year: * ESSDD (preprint): essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es... * Nature: www.nature.com/articles/s41... 1/

Looking for a PhD in climate science? Great opportunity to help modernise one of the iconic climate time series - Central England Temperature. Led by @timosbornclim.bsky.social, with myself and Met Office collaborators: www.uea.ac.uk/course/phd-d...

Syksy on ollut lähes koko maassa ja myös koko maan keskiarvoa tarkastellessa ennätyksellisen lämmin. Lämmin suursäätyyppi muuttuu kuitenkin tällä viikolla. suomenluonto.fi/ennatyslammi... @suomenluonto.bsky.social

Came across what appears to be the 1st peer-reviewed paper against the world record temperature of 56.7 °C (134 °F) in Death Valley in 1913: journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal... They present evidence that the reading should be in reality 7.8 °C lower, 48.9 °C (120 °F).

Elämäni ensimmäinen akatemiatutkijan hakemus Suomen Akatemialle jätetty! Ja jopa päivä ennen takarajaa. Olihan siinä hommaa paketoida päässä oleva idea äärisäätutkimuksesta 12 sivun tutkimussuunnitelmaksi, mutta lopulta olin tyytyväinen lopputulokseen. Toivotaan että se näkyy arvioitsijoille 🤞

Vierailin tänään Ari-Juhani Punkan vieraana myrskyvaroitus-videoblogissa. Juteltiin kesäkaudesta, pitkistä ennusteista ja tulevasta polaaripyörteen heikkenemisestä. Käy kuuntelemassa: youtu.be/kVnWPLge81I?...

Latest ECMWF subseasonal forecast shows ensemble mean zonal wind of about 5 m/s at 10 hPa in late November, with roughly 20–30 % of ensemble members indicating a reversal to easterlies (i.e. going < 0 m/s). This suggests a non-zero probabilty for a major SSW event!

The first week of November (1.-7.11.) was record-warm in Helsinki, Finland. The average temperature was 9.3 °C. Records have been kept since 1882.

Vuodesta 2025 on tulossa maailmanlaajuisesti mittaushistorian toiseksi tai kolmanneksi lämpimin vuosi, selviää WMO:n State of the Global Climate Update 2025 -raportista. Seuraukset ovat näkyneet vuoden aikana esimerkiksi sään ääri-ilmiöinä. www.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/tiedote/3O5H...

Lämpötilamittari näytti tänään ip Tohmajärven Kemiessä 11,5, mutta Hammaslahdessa 12,5 C! Kiteen Päätyeenlahdella oli liki tuhat vesilintua, mm. 141 uiveloa ja 4 harmaasorsaa. Ei ole normaalia marraskuuta. @mikarantane.bsky.social #BirdLifeFinland #Kitee

Unprecedentedly warm November day in eastern Finland, especially in North Karelia. Multiple monthly heat records, including Tohmajärvi Kemie 11.8 °C Liperi Joensuu airport 11.1 °C Juuka Niemelä 11.2 °C Lieksa Lampela 10.9 °C Nurmes Valtimo 10.8 °C (shown with magenta in the map)

Exceptionally mild airflow over central Finland today. Liperi Joensuu airport just set a new November heat record with a temperature of 10.8 °C. The reading is provisional and may still rise during the day.

Incredible Arctic heat in October. Highest average temperature on record for land and seas north of 60ºN. In Canada, Yukon Territory and Nunavut second warmest, Northwest Territories third warmest. Alaska and Svalbard fourth warmest. Data courtesy ERA5. #akwx #Arctic #Canada #Climate

Interesting new paper states that forced changes in variability may lead to more extreme heatwaves in northern Europe this century. So far, heatwaves in W-Europe have become disproportionately more intense compared to other Europe but this seems to change. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

☀️🌧️ Extreme weather events are increasing 🌀🌤 Our new paper discusses the range of extreme weather attribution methods available and how we should be combining them to improve confidence in our attribution statements with co-authors: @marylouathanase.bsky.social & Shirin Ermis doi.org/10.1002/wea....

Year-to-date temperatures in Sodankylä Tähtelä (northern Fennoscandia) are currently tracking record-high and exceeding the long-standing 1938 record. The best chance so far to beat the 1938 annual temperature record but it would still require anomalously warm end to the year.

So, I hate to be this guy, but as the director of Yale’s new program on attribution science (!?), uh, most of the commentary on Bluesky about Hurricane Melissa and climate change has been… not quite right

Multi-panel view of the last few days of Hurricane Melissa: ↖️ GOES-19 infrared brightness temp ↗️ GOES-19 visible satellite ↙️ Hurricane hunter planes & flight paths ↘️ Recon-derived flight level wind swath ⬇️ Estimated minimum pressure from recon dropsondes

"Aiemmissa tutkimuksissa on havaittu, että ilmastonmuutos lisää hurrikaanien tuulien voimakkuutta noin 5–10 metriä sekunnissa. Ilmastonmuutoksesta johtuva merivesien lämpeneminen teki Melissasta siis entistä tuhoisamman" www.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/tiedote/3lWQ...

Hurricanes feed off of warm water. Watch how quickly the eye of #Melissa collapsed as it moved onto land and over the mountainous terrain of Jamaica, and how quickly it is reforming now that it has moved back over water! I will be adding this radar loop to my earth science lectures.

Insane. This is Hurricane #Melissa seen right near landfall by the Copernicus / @esa.int Sentinel-2C satellite. It looks so beautiful, and it's hard to comprehend how much destruction a hurricane like this can cause. Best wishes to everyone in Jamaica.

We have official LANDFALL near New Hope, Jamaica #Melissa officially ties the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane as the most intense Atlantic hurricane landfall on record Min pressure 892mb Max sustained winds 185mph

It's hard to get a more symmetric and well-defined hurricane structure than the latest satellite images of Melissa. One of the most intense storms the Atlantic has ever seen and unfortunately, just at the landfall.

Simply incredible imagery of Hurricane Melissa this morning as it approaches Jamaica.

#Melissa unfortunately is still intensifying. A 9am EDT Tropical Cyclone Update indicates that winds are up to 180 mph, with an estimated minimum pressure of 896 mb. You can see how GLM lightning has 📈 in the past hour, encircling the eye, with eye WV temp still increasing!

Oikeastaan pahin mahdollinen skenaario näyttäisi toteutuvan. Hurrikaani Melissa on jatkanut voimistumistaan juuri ennen rantautumistaan Jamakaille. Maksimikeskituulet puhaltavat nyt 80 m/s, ja pintapaine on laskenut 896 hPa:iin. Yksi kaikkien aikojen voimakkaimmista myrskyistä Atlantilla.

Those physically realistic models predict subpolar gyre tipping around 2040-2050. This would lead to a local cooling of 1-2 degrees in 10 to 20 years. The Nordic seas would warm, the jet stream shift northward and in summer high pressure over Scandinavia could lead to more (intense) heat waves.

Lue alta uutinen uudesta hankkeestamme jossa saan olla mukana tutkimassa äärimmäisiä mutta mahdollisia helleaaltoja Uudenmaan alueella. ☀️ 👇

What we're witnessing with #Melissa is ultra rare in the history of known hurricanes in the Atlantic. This level of sustained intensity and feasting on every joule of ocean heat content without any real disruption is incredible. Not hyperbole: Jamaica is facing a generational catastrophic event.

An extraordinary view of Hurricane Melissa this evening. An incredibly powerful storm in the Caribbean Sea.

👻🎃 It's that time of year again, time to start thinking about #EGU26! 🔥🌧️🌀 Our session on Future Changes in Weather and Climate Hazards is now open for abstract submissions 🔥🌧️🌀 meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/sessio... @tamarahappe.bsky.social @yinglintian.bsky.social @kornhuber.bsky.social

Nordic Tipping Week in Helsinki. @rahmstorf.bsky.social gave a nice overview on the state of latest research on the risk of AMOC change.

What’s the latest on North Atlantic Ocean circulation and its potential impacts on the Nordics? Join us at Tiedekulma, Helsinki, or online for a review & panel on the AMOC tipping point. 🗓 Wed 22 Oct, 17:00–18:15 EEST 🌍 Intro in FI, panel in EN 🎥 Live stream: lnkd.in/d7AfA3Zj #AMOC #TippingPoint

First snow of the season in Finland has fallen today morning in Enontekiö, Lapland. This year, the first snow was about three weeks late. Usually the first measurable snow is registered somewhere in the country in late September.

Very interesting debate: www.nature.com/articles/s43...

Wow, autumn-to-date mean temperature in Sodankylä, Lapland is currently a full two degrees (!) higher than the previous record. In Sodankylä, records have been kept since 1908.

The @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social climate monitoring application #Climate Pulse has been updated. Same climate monitoring data with new features and better layout. 🌏🌊⚒️🧪 User feedback always welcome so let us know what you would like to see updated in the next version: pulse.climate.copernicus.eu

🌊The unprecedented June 2023 marine heatwave in north-western Europe had a 10% annual likelihood, with climate change accelerating the risk of similar events. 👉Read more here: www.nature.com/articles/s43...

As far as I can tell, the "more frequent and intense" refers here to simulations without sea level rise. The simulations are run with constant CO₂ levels, so they do not take into account the warming climate. (as pointed out also by one reviewer)

Ovatko sään ääri-ilmiöt haitanneet elämääsi? Vastaa kyselyyn! Keräämme tietoa sään ääri-ilmiöiden koetuista haittavaikutuksista ja selvitämme, minkälaista tietoa tarvittaisiin niihin varautumiseksi. Kyselyyn pääset tästä linkistä 🔽 link.webropolsurveys.com/Participatio... 📸 Jukka Salmi / Plugi.

Storm Amy has been record breaking ⚠️ An air pressure of 947.9 hPa was recorded at Baltasound, Shetland, provisionally setting a new UK lowest pressure record for October. Northern Ireland provisionally recorded its strongest October wind gust on record, with a gust of 92 mph at Magilligan.

🚨New paper 🚨@natgeosci.nature.com Greenlandification of Antarctica - comment by me + colleagues @dmidk.bsky.social @eo4cryo.bsky.social + @universityofleeds.bsky.social showing how Antarctica increasingly resembles Greenland- drawing on a mass of work from @esaclimate.bsky.social rdcu.be/eJiqJ

Storm Amy is litterally giving Norway the finger, according to this weekend's forecast. 🌬️

The rapid deepening of Storm Amy has begun. Over the next hours, the storm will travel across the jet stream and move to the left exit region of the jet stream where the most explosive deepening will take place.

Future atmospheric and ocean warming over the 21st century might be larger than previously expected based on a new study by @linusvogt.bsky.social Linus & I developed the idea during Linus research visit with me at @whoi.edu and turned it then into this paper: esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...

Published today: our new paper showing a 44-year trend of increasing global wildfire disasters (fatalities and economic losses) due to climate change-induced extreme weather. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Finland's regionally averaged temperature in September was the 3rd highest on record, but here you can see how Septembers 2023–2025 surpass all previous years since 1900.