Be sure to check out the short explainer from SPC on what conditional intensity is, and what it means for our outlooks!

The NWS Storm Prediction Center's severe weather outlooks will be changing slightly next week. Meteorologists Evan Bentley and Liz Leitman, our experts at SPC, provide an update about the new conditional intensity outlook.

SHARPlib 1.3.0 is available via PyPI, conda-forge, & source distributions. This update brings a fix to a longtime issue present since SHARPpy w/ how the dendritic growth zone is calculated. New features include PyroCB Firepower Threshold, PBL top detection, & more. github.com/keltonhalber...

Duck fat crispy potatoes Oven roasted baby carrots Rack of lamb with red wine and chimichurri sauces

SPC Conditional Intensity teaser video dropped on YouTube. We’ll have another explainer video (around 3 min length) coming soon! Outlook changes coming March 3rd. youtube.com/shorts/uWzMP...

Didn’t have arguing with another meteorologist about the validity of the virtual temperature correction on my bingo card for today.

Claude can have it

You can do what you want. But the logic for staying on Twitter is insane, some form of Gell-Mann Amnesia: Everyone else's posts are obviously besotted in apartheid-forward engagement bots, but MY posts are clearly unaffected, because they're beautiful and perfect. Again, do you, but I'm all set.

You don't have to stop posting but you do have to stop posting THERE. It is a uniquely, fundamentally detrimental website to you as a person. It incentivizes racism, violence and — the worst crime of all — vagueposting. You are living in a permanent teaser ad for the 11 o'clock news.

This timing graphic is atrocious

Every now and again I pop over to The Other Place™️ during tornado events to see what is going on. Good heavens, I regret it every time. The degeneracy, the drama, the being so confidently wrong in a gigantic echo chamber of inexperience. It’s literally insane.

One MCD issued focused on the supercell heading toward Bloomington, cooking up another right now for western portions of the watch area. Busy night on the forecast desk.

18Z AMA. Once again, **crispy**. PBL max wind of 65 kts, PBL mean of 47 kts. PBL min RH 15%, PBL mean 23% RH.

12 DDC sounding was **crispy** this morning. Already have a fire in the Oklahoma Panhandle, too.

Getting to present this to the IMETs today and seeing the positive feedback/response made spending last summer writing a BUFR decoder from scratch more than worth it. A little demo video demonstrating the interactive functionality working with full-resolution BUFR profile data. 1/2

I’m pretty excited about what I get to share with the IMETs during training next week. If you’ve followed along w/ my BUFR blogs, or seen the bits & pieces posted here, you know interactive visualization & interrogation of 1-s profile data has been a big push of mine. It’s all coming together.

Vim/Neovim supremacy

I stood. I started with MM5 & WRF. WRFhelp, WRF forum. All the online resources, presentations & documentation. i contributed back for years. It takes a village to build, maintain & help/contribute back. All possible bc of an institution dedicated to supporting our community & us supporting NCAR!

🗣️NEW: In collaboration with our SPC/CIWRO research scientists, the new Severe Hazards Data Viewer is available: spc.noaa.gov/climo/datavi.... On this webpage you can view a 30-yr record for severe storms, wildfires, and lightning in the dynamic and customizable data display.

🧵SPC will be introducing new information in Convective Outlooks starting in early March. The following thread will offer some basic information regarding these changes. The TL;DR: outlook categories are not changing! But there will be more info for peak hazard intensity.

This is our info page about the changes (which should also be linked in the SCN that Daryl linked)

I know folks will probably have plenty of both valid & invalid opinions on the change, particularly how conditional intensity is visualized, but this change to the SPC outlooks and the dropping of the 10% unconditional SIG line will enable robust downstream products & provide more forecaster freedom

Shameless plug: I expect to host a grad student through NOAA’s Lapenta program this summer to evaluate global or near-global storm-scale MPAS forecasts. Contact me for more details! And I’ll be speaking today at 4:30p CT in Rm. 362C on our regional model development efforts with MPAS! #ams2026

I was a student researcher working with NSSL on evaluating MPAS during the Spring Experiment circa 2015-2016. When NWS made the choice to use FV3 instead of MPAS, even then I felt it was a big mistake. Very glad to see it course corrected, even if a decade later.

The death of truth is the ultimate victory of evil.

Carson Beck is picked off. INDIANA IS GOING TO WIN THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP!

Carson Beck on the game winning play of the game winning drive, throwing a pick instead. Way to go Indiana, 16-0!!

The National Weather Service is now hiring for both entry-level and seasoned meteorologist positions. Apply by January 29! The entry-level positions are available in: ▪️ Houston, TX ▪️ Ft. Worth, TX ▪️ Hastings, NE ▪️ Great Falls, MT ▪️ Marquette, MI Apply: www.usajobs.gov/job/854675700

How do we feel about this approach to multi-day “at-glance” previews for extended outlooks?

Severe thunderstorm warnings, but no thunderstorm to speak of

Get to work the MesoA forecast desk the next two days. At least it won’t be completely quiet and boring!

It’s okay, it’s not like we need scientific journal access to do our jobs implementing the current state of the science to make better forecasts and tools 🙃

Well, that ended up being easier than I anticipated! Summary pages for both SPC Convective and Fire outlooks are up on my website. There may be some bugs with summary and preview graphic generation that will be solved as they come up. www.stormscale.io/spc/convective www.stormscale.io/spc/fire

It’s a work in progress. I still need to figure out a summary graphic for days 4-8, and still need to do fire outlooks. But, finally put together a summary page for navigating between connective outlooks on my site. Don’t have to manually enter the URLs anymore! www.stormscale.io/spc/convective

I promised myself that I would finish the BUFR blog series before the new year. Not cutting it quite as close as my university assignments, but still, pretty close. The code was done a while ago, the writeup, not so much! Join me in one last descent into madness? www.stormscale.io/blog/so-I-am...

Homemade fish and chips for this NYE. A from-scratch tartar sauce, Irish red ale battered cod, and triple fried pub chips. First time trying, solid 8/10.

I promised myself that I would finish the BUFR blog series before the new year. Not cutting it quite as close as my university assignments, but still, pretty close. The code was done a while ago, the writeup, not so much! Join me in one last descent into madness? www.stormscale.io/blog/so-I-am...

Merry Christmas. Or else.

Head to Nashville for Christmas and the house a few doors down goes up in flames 🙃

Thanks, I hate it

Sometimes the finer details of where the extremely critical and critical areas are can be hard to locate on these maps! So, feel free to use the zoomable page I have on my personal site: www.stormscale.io/spc/fire/day1

🚨 METEOROLOGICAL JOB ANNOUNCEMENT 🚨 In response to the deadly flooding event that occurred in the Texas Hill Country this past summer, TTU has received $24M from the state legislature to develop and implement a weather measurement and modeling system to serve the state.

ARC Surveyor spotted in Norman

Just so we’re clear, this would be very bad.

Oklahoma's Tate Sandell is recognized as the Lou Groza Award Winner for the nation's best kicker! #CFBPlayoff x #BoomerSooner

Just had Culver’s for the first time since moving from Wisconsin and I fell to my knees.

for no reason, here is an animation from a direct numerical simulation of a share-free atmospheric boundary layer. this is vertical velocity, with narrow bright areas being upward motion, and broad dark areas being downward motion. this is near-surface in the x-y plane (you're superman looking down)

GRIB is a stupid format indeed