remember those other branches of government

🚨New paper alert🚨 What happens when a polarized democracy bans a social media platform? New work with @cbarrie.bsky.social, Molly Roberts, Chris Schwarz, and @jatucker.bsky.social. We study Brazil's 2024 ban on X and find it created what we define as a "partisan sorting ratchet ." 1/

Very happy to share our new paper on “The Global Incumbency Advantage”! 👇👇 We provide the first estimates of the incumbency advantage at the national level for all elections worldwide since 1945. with Raphaël Descamps, Ben Marx and @vincent-rollet.bsky.social. Short 🧵 below (1/n).

Que manchete bizarra. "Tenho recebido muitos pedidos para esclarecimento embora já tenha publicado nota esclarecendo tudo"?

Essa manchete é engraçada porque subentende-se que o Congresso está apreensivo não porque há uma possível rede de corrupção, mas sim porque a rede de corrupção vai se tornar visível.

Analyslop is correct, and there are many like this memo. They all fantasize how AI will disrupt jobs, but they (and contrarians) never make up scenarios about how AI will create new human jobs (as all tech revolutions did) because maybe this time is indeed different?

Eu pedi pro Claude fazer o mesmo gráfico per capita (estimando mais ou menos os dados absolutos usando o gráfico da Ponte Jornalismo)

the poujahetine

Forbearance: revoked g1.globo.com/sp/sao-paulo...

This … is not good news www.nbclosangeles.com/investigatio...

The dissonance here between text and photo is fantastic

Artigo meu e do Anderson Frey publicado ontem na Folha: www1.folha.uol.com.br/opiniao/2025...

My first thought was that the “gentleman” was Bolsonaro, but on twitter, the Brazilian reporter asking the question is skeptical; thinks Trump was referring to someone else. She (Raquel Krähenbühl) followed up with Leavitt the next day, who said she wasn’t aware of any call btw the two.

We did it for you Dick Cheney

"Part of the footage from officers’ body cameras during the major operation may have been lost due to low battery, says Military Police secretary."

Gruesome details from the massive police operation yesterday in Rio continue to surface: “The [beheaded] body had their fist closed, holding grass.” www1.folha.uol.com.br/cotidiano/20...

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ah yes powell 2004

Word of caution: the push to win votes on the pervasive anti-corruption sentiment in Latin America did not go well. OC is different, but likely the Dems would end up carried away by the anti-establishment wave (the PSDB - major national player in Brazil since 1994 is all but gone)

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This is incredibly sloppy work. There is absolutely no evidence here that Kimmel's suspension enjoys widespread support: www.nytimes.com/2025/09/19/t...

What sic-fi dystopian movie had this on a news ticker headline? on.ft.com/3InqWsC AI-controlled drone swarms set to transform combat on battlefield

There is a dilemma at the WH right now. Carrying out the threat of retaliation or maintaining the current news cycle?

still puzzled

(2) "Media Manipulation in Young Democracies: Evidence From the 1989 Brazilian Presidential Election" by Alexsandros Cavgias, Raphael Corbi, Luis Meloni @luismeloni.bsky.social , and Lucas Novaes @lmnovaes.bsky.social journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

O resultado da pesquisa nesse pique:

In a just-accepted paper at the @thejop.bsky.social , @MelaniCammett, Guadalupe Tuñon, and I examine how campaign finance reforms have unanticipated effects: organized actors gain an edge. In our case, the Universal Kingdom of God Church in Brazil. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

I love how the federal police uncovered russian assets with the bread and butter of social science in Brazil: merging inconsistent datasets.

Why is Brazil's national squad so bad? Are we just better at retaining talent? (These are Libertadores champions.)

Herbert P. Kitschelt is the winner of the 2025 Johan Skytte Prize in Political Science. 🏆 He is awarded the prize for " having increased knowledge of the functioning of democratic party systems with exquisite theoretical acuity and impressive empirical breadth and depth."

guy who misses "old san francisco" before it "sold out" but is clearly just remembering the car chase sequence from The Rock

maybe i should had been a financial analyst after all bsky.app/profile/bert...

So from my uniquely weird perspective after living in the UK through Brexit, being in India during Modi's demonetization, and living in Brazil when the real tanked during the Bolsonaro administration, I can confidentally say that Americans do not and can not understand how bad this is going to be.

I am no financial analyst but when DJT sees this swing over a rumor, he will make the rumor true.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I am not sure if back in 1992 we were calling the autogolpe in Peru a “constitutional crisis” but I am sure this is not another example of American exceptionalism.

I think of this whenever some conservative finds some supposedly wacky research topic that government grants pay for

it reads like a parody.

Gift link. The actual story of the shackled people being deported without even being told where they were being taken — maybe to countries where they’d face torture or death — while their terrified children cried.😢 The White House posted that pic with “ASMR” tag. www.nytimes.com/2025/02/18/w...

de longe a coisa mais engraçada que eu li nos últimos 39 anos

Considering what is happening in the US, this is no small feat.

I have had previous issues with Polity about how they do their coding of the UK and the US and I’m afraid I’m similarly skeptical this time about the change. If they are coding the US as dropping to 1 out of 7 on constraints on the executive, on the basis of three weeks of unified govt, I’m dubious.

Today, I wrote about the Founders, about their faith, and about the history of the Episcopal Church in the USA. I posted it on Vichy Facebook, and it was immediately removed as spam. There is no free speech on any platform owned by an oligarch. tompepinsky.com/2025/01/22/w...

Fernanda torres will take the oscar (thank god for Condorcet cycles!)

Brasilzão