Ewan Carr
@ewancarr.bsky.social
📤 176
📥 145
📝 12
Reader in Biostatistics, Biostatistics and Health Informatics, King’s College London. He/him.
reposted by
Ewan Carr
Joel Pick
9 days ago
Interested in simulating the kind of data that you might commonly find in evolutionary and ecological studies? Then we have the R package for you - squidSim!! Check our new preprint:
ecoevorxiv.org/repository/v...
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squidSim: a flexible R package for structured and reproducible simulations in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
https://ecoevorxiv.org/repository/view/10186/
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Ewan Carr
Thomas Lin Pedersen
13 days ago
I am beyond excited to announce that ggplot2 4.0.0 has just landed on CRAN. It's not every day we have a new major
#ggplot2
release but it is a fitting 18 year birthday present for the package. Get an overview of the release in this blog post and be on the lookout for more in-depth posts
#rstats
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ggplot2 4.0.0
A new major version of ggplot2 has been released on CRAN. Find out what is new here.
https://www.tidyverse.org/blog/2025/09/ggplot2-4-0-0/
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Ewan Carr
LMU Open Science Center
14 days ago
💡 Explore how practices from distributed, open-source software can make science more professional, open, and collaborative! Attend the “Science as amateur software development” lecture by Prof. Dr.
@rmcelreath.bsky.social
on Wed 17 Sept, 9:00. 👉 Register here:
www.pretix.osc.lmu.de/lmu-osc/OSSS...
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Ewan Carr
21 days ago
🎯 TARGET Guideline published 🎉 TARGET is a reporting guideline for observational studies of interventions that use the target trial framework. Over 3 years the @TARGETGuideline was rigorously developed and was co-published today in
@jama.com
&
@bmj.com
doi.org/10.1001/jama.2025.13350
#episky
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Ewan Carr
travis gerke
about 1 month ago
This is extremely cool. Picked it up and made this DAG in like 15 minutes. Obviously pros/cons versus other DAG tools (e.g. low/no code cstructure and R's ggdag, both of which offer d-separation details and more) but if you have rigid aesthetic requirements this is a great tool to have in your kit
add a skeleton here at some point
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Ewan Carr
Ian Hussey
about 1 month ago
{truffle} is an R package for teaching users to process data. Semi-realistic psychological datasets with predetermined effects (via `truffles_` functions) are then hidden in common data processing headaches (via `dirt_` functions) for students to clean and analyze.
mmmdata.io/posts/2025/0...
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Ewan Carr
Nan van Geloven
about 1 month ago
New paper in
@annalsofim.bsky.social
"50 ways to misinterpret clinical prediction models for treatment decisions” --> Published version:
www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/...
--> Open access version:
arxiv.org/pdf/2402.17366
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The Risks of Risk Assessment: Causal Blind Spots When Using Prediction Models for Treatment Decisions | Annals of Internal Medicine
Clinicians increasingly rely on prediction models to guide treatment choices. Most prediction models, however, are developed using observational data that include some patients who have already receiv...
https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/ANNALS-24-00279
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Running a workshop tomorrow on reproducible workflows in R at the King's Open Research Summer School. 📽️ Slides:
ewancarr.github.io/reproducible-r
👩💻 Practical:
ewancarr.github.io/reproducible-r/practical
Mildly terrified that Git on Windows will be my downfall—but we'll see. 😅
#rstats
#opensci
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Reproducible workflows in R
https://ewancarr.github.io/reproducible-r
2 months ago
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Ewan Carr
Frank Harrell
2 months ago
New blog article on Statistical Thinking: confidence limits for bootstrap overfitting-corrected predictive performance measures for regression models, useful for strong internal validations including confidence bands for debiased calibration curves:
fharrell.com/post/bootcal
#statistics
#StatsSky
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https://fharrell.com/post/bootcal
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Ewan Carr
Hetan Shah
2 months ago
We are offering up to £10k for researchers to upgrade their skills - e.g. in AI/machine learning; or a language; or something else! Think about it over the summer and apply by early October
www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/funding/tale...
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Talent Development Awards 2025-26
The Talent Development Awards are available to promote the acquisition and advancement of skills in relevant areas by UK-based researchers, promoting innovative research methods, be that through skill...
https://www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/funding/talent-development-awards/
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A helpful framework for evaluating software dependencies: Ubiquity Stability Depth Ergonomics Watertightness
add a skeleton here at some point
2 months ago
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Ewan Carr
RoSE Network
2 months ago
Do you teach statistics, or do you conduct research about teaching statistics? The RoSE e-Conference on July 31st has sessions for you! Join our Statistics Pedagogy special interest group talks by registering for free here:
bit.ly/roseconferen...
#StatsEd
#statistics
#conferences
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Ewan Carr
Richard McElreath 🐈⬛
3 months ago
How can we reform science? I have some ideas. But I am not sure you’ll like them, because they don’t promise much.
elevanth.org/blog/2025/07...
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Which Kind of Science Reform
What hope is there for science reform, if we can't agree on what to reform? Right now, principles are more important than practices.
https://elevanth.org/blog/2025/07/09/which-kind-of-science-reform/
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Ewan Carr
Charlie Gao
3 months ago
#tidyverse
purrr 1.1.0 is out - now with parallel processing! Scale your
#rstats
map operations reliably and efficiently across multiple cores and even distributed systems. Powered by the mirai framework, this unlocks new levels of performance. Read more at:
www.tidyverse.org/blog/2025/07...
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Parallel processing in purrr 1.1.0
The functional programming toolkit for R gains new capabilities for parallel processing and distributed computing using mirai.
https://www.tidyverse.org/blog/2025/07/purrr-1-1-0-parallel/
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Ewan Carr
Vincent Arel-Bundock
3 months ago
{tinytable} is a dead simple, ultra-flexible, and dependency-free
#Rstats
📦 to turn data frames into beautiful tables: html, word, pdf, latex, typst, markdown, etc. v0.10.0 has cool new features and important bug fixes. Check out the detailed tutorials at:
vincentarelbundock.github.io/tinytable/
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Ewan Carr
Julia Evans
3 months ago
delighted to announce that my new zine "The Secret Rules of the Terminal" is out today!! You can get it for $12 USD here:
wizardzines.com/zines/terminal
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Ewan Carr
Julia M. Rohrer
3 months ago
New blog post! Let's say you've measured two variables repeatedly and want to investigate how one affects the other over time. Here are some recommendations for how to do that well.
www.the100.ci/2025/06/25/r...
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Reviewer notes: So you’re interested in “lagged effects.”
In some fields, researchers who end up with time series of two variables of interest (X and Y) like to analyze (reciprocal) lagged effects between them. Does X affect Y at a later point in time, and d...
https://www.the100.ci/2025/06/25/reviewer-notes-so-youre-interested-in-lagged-effects/
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reposted by
Ewan Carr
Damien C-C
3 months ago
YYYY-MM-DD OR NOTHING AT ALL
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Ewan Carr
Charlie Gao
3 months ago
Bleeding edge update for the
#tidyverse
purrr package with even more seamless
#rstats
parallel maps. Introducing our shiniest new adverb: `in_parallel()`. Just wrap your function to take advantage of blazing fast parallel processing via mirai. pak::pak("tidyverse/purrr")
purrr.tidyverse.org/dev/
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Functional Programming Tools
A complete and consistent functional programming toolkit for R.
https://purrr.tidyverse.org/dev/
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Ewan Carr
Andrew Heiss
4 months ago
I'm on a podcast! I had a blast talking with
@lucystats.bsky.social
and
@epiellie.bsky.social
on
@casualinfer.bsky.social
! We cover all sorts of fun things: {marginaleffects}, defining estimands, fixed vs. random effects, & how to teach all this stats stuff in accessible ways
#databs
#EpiSky
#rstats
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Casual Inference: The Art of Clarity with Andrew Heiss | Season 6 Episode 6
Andrew Heiss is an assistant professor in the Department of Public Management and Policy at the Andrew Young School of Policy Studies at Georgia State University. Vincent’s “What is your estimand” s...
https://casualinfer.libsyn.com/the-art-of-clarity-with-andrew-heiss-season-6-episode-6
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reposted by
Ewan Carr
Richard Riley (R²)
7 months ago
Just published a couple of pre-prints for those interested in sample size calculations for precise and fair individual-level predictions ... (not the end of the story, but a useful contribution we hope): Binary outcomes:
arxiv.org/abs/2407.09293
Survival outcomes:
arxiv.org/abs/2501.14482
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A decomposition of Fisher's information to inform sample size for developing fair and precise clinical prediction models -- part 1: binary outcomes
When developing a clinical prediction model, the sample size of the development dataset is a key consideration. Small sample sizes lead to greater concerns of overfitting, instability, poor performanc...
https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.09293
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reposted by
Ewan Carr
Jonathan Bartlett
4 months ago
Join us on 10th June (online or in London
@lshtm-dash.bsky.social
) to hear from Matthew Sperrin talk about his work on 'Prediction under intervention: challenges and trade-offs'.More details at
www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/e...
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Prediction under intervention: challenges and trade-offs | LSHTM
Causality and prediction are often two separate activities. In particular, prediction can be done in a way that is agnostic to underlying knowledge, mechanism or causal structure. However, it is very
https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/events/prediction-under-intervention-challenges-and-trade-offs
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reposted by
Ewan Carr
Marion Campbell
5 months ago
This week saw the publication of SPIRIT 2025, a major update to the international SPIRIT Statement which provides guidance on what should be included in a trial protocol. 1/6
#MethodologyMonday
#117
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reposted by
Ewan Carr
Andrew Heiss
5 months ago
On the verge of declaring defeat with chatgpt in my asynchronous online dataviz class. Something changed this semester compared to past ones and SO MANY assignments are essentially 100% LLM output.
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Ewan Carr
Essex Summer School in Social Science Data Analysis
6 months ago
Multilevel Models: Practical Applications Curious about multilevel modelling but not sure where to start? Learn to recognise, build & interpret multilevel models using MLwiN or R, through real-world examples & hands-on practice. Find out more:
bit.ly/3Yj5I4f
#ESS2025
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reposted by
Ewan Carr
Casual Inference Podcast
5 months ago
🎙️ On this week’s episode
@vincentab.bsky.social
joins to chat with
@epiellie.bsky.social
&
@lucystats.bsky.social
about making statistical model output more meaningful via the {marginaleffects} package (and more!)
casualinfer.libsyn.com/site/from-mo...
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Casual Inference: From Model to Meaning with Vincent Arel-Bundock | Season 6 Episode 4
Vincent Arel-Bundock is a professor at the Université de Montréal, where he studies comparative and international political economy. Vincent's website: Vincent's book "Model to Meaning: How ...
https://casualinfer.libsyn.com/site/from-model-to-meaning-with-vincent-arel-bundock-season-6-episode-4
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reposted by
Ewan Carr
Maarten van Smeden
6 months ago
PROBAST+AI is out! A risk of bias tool for prediction models developed using any kind of analytical approach (stats/ml/ai/ds) Really proud of this collaboration with many prediction model experts around the world
www.bmj.com/content/388/...
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reposted by
Ewan Carr
Julia M. Rohrer
6 months ago
New blog post! In which I explain the issue with mediation analysis and sketch out one way to deal with the underlying causal inference problem -- in just a bit over 1,000 words! If you have never found the time to read up on this, now is your chance.
www.the100.ci/2025/03/20/r...
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Reviewer notes: That’s a very nice mediation analysis you have there. It would be a shame if something happened to it.
Mediation analysis has gotten a lot of flak, including classic titles such as “Yes, but what’s the mechanism? (Don’t expect an easy answer)” (Bullock et al., 2010), “What mediation analysis can (not) ...
https://www.the100.ci/2025/03/20/reviewer-notes-thats-a-very-nice-mediation-analysis-you-have-there-it-would-be-a-shame-if-something-happened-to-it/
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reposted by
Ewan Carr
Richard Riley (R²)
6 months ago
Delighted to announce the full MEMTAB programme is now available to view :
uobevents.eventsair.com/memtab-2025/...
Includes all the invited speakers & accepted oral contributions ... and the 3 short courses. It's going to be a great event! (FYI only 1-2 places remain available for registration)
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Programme - MEMTAB 2025
https://uobevents.eventsair.com/memtab-2025/programme
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reposted by
Ewan Carr
Ben Van Calster
7 months ago
We tried to look at ways to obtain flexible calibration plots in clustered (e.g. multicenter) validation studies. Work with
@lasaibarrenada.bsky.social
@laurewynants.bsky.social
@bavodccampo.bsky.social
arxiv.org/abs/2503.08389
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Clustered Flexible Calibration Plots For Binary Outcomes Using Random Effects Modeling
Evaluation of clinical prediction models across multiple clusters, whether centers or datasets, is becoming increasingly common. A comprehensive evaluation includes an assessment of the agreement betw...
https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.08389
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reposted by
Ewan Carr
ADHD Remote Technology (ART), King’s College London
7 months ago
Are you a 16-17-year-old with ADHD in the UK, or do you work with young people this age? We are recruiting for ART-transition, a project aiming to improve our understanding of the transition to adulthood in young people with
#ADHD
. If this interests you, get in contact at
[email protected]
.
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reposted by
Ewan Carr
Gaël Varoquaux
7 months ago
🔥🎉New library: boosting for survival analysis, including multiclass (competing risks) Survival = missing outcomes because limited observation window (common in medicine, marketting...)
soda-inria.github.io/hazardous
Gives very fast boosted-trees for survival
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reposted by
Ewan Carr
Max kuhn
7 months ago
Check out what's new in
#rstats
tidymodels in our Q1 digest post! If you use parallel processing a lot with tidymodels, please give this a look.
www.tidyverse.org/blog/2025/02...
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Q1 2025 tidymodels digest
A summary of the goings on for the tidymodels group in later 2024 and early 2025.
https://www.tidyverse.org/blog/2025/02/tidymodels-2025-q1/
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Interested in a career in statistical modelling and health informatics? Join the ASMHI MSc at King's College London! 🚀 Hands-on training in applied statistics, machine learning and AI using real-world data 🎯 Gain essential skills for research, healthcare and industry
www.kcl.ac.uk/study/postgr...
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Applied Statistical Modelling & Health Informatics
This course has been created to deliver a skill set and knowledge base in “multimodal” and “big data” analysis techniques.
https://www.kcl.ac.uk/study/postgraduate-taught/courses/applied-statistical-modelling-health-informatics
7 months ago
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🥳
add a skeleton here at some point
7 months ago
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Ewan Carr
Marion Campbell
7 months ago
This past month has seen the publication of a couple of new helpful papers providing further insights into the thorny issue of
#MultipleTesting
in trials 1/7
#MethodologyMonday
#112
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A new formatter for R code 😍
www.tidyverse.org/blog/2025/02...
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Air, an extremely fast R formatter
We are thrilled to announce Air, a new R formatter.
https://www.tidyverse.org/blog/2025/02/air/
7 months ago
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Ewan Carr
Nick Clark 💹
7 months ago
The latest release of the {mvgam}
#rstats
📦 has hit CRAN. Plenty of exciting new features including Joint Species Distribution Models, support for the full range of Gaussian Process kernels available in the {brms} 📦 and plenty more
nicholasjclark.github.io/mvgam/news/i...
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Ewan Carr
Richard Riley (R²)
7 months ago
**NEW BMJ PAPER** "Uncertainty of risk estimates from clinical prediction models: rationale, challenges, and approaches" - most models provide just a risk estimate - we argue for presenting associated uncertainty too - includes pros, cons, PPIE & methods Hope helpful!
www.bmj.com/content/388/...
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Uncertainty of risk estimates from clinical prediction models: rationale, challenges, and approaches
Clinical prediction models estimate an individual’s risk (probability) of a health related outcome to help guide patient counselling and clinical decision making. Most models provide a single point es...
https://www.bmj.com/content/388/bmj-2024-080749.full
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Ewan Carr
Gary Collins
8 months ago
NEW PAPER in
@bmj.com
"FUTURE-AI: international consensus guideline for trustworthy and deployable
#artificialintelligence
in healthcare" from design, development, validation to regulation, deployment & monitoring
www.bmj.com/content/388/...
#StatsSky
#MLSky
#MedSky
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Ewan Carr
Julia M. Rohrer
8 months ago
Go, shorty: New blog post! (How) should you interpret pre-post differences in a randomized study? In which we introduce a new format, "reviewer notes" -- points that occasionally need to be made during the peer-review process.
www.the100.ci/2025/01/22/r...
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Reviewer notes: In a randomized experiment, the pre-post differences are not effect estimates
Reviewer notes are a new short format with brief explanations of basic ideas that might come in handy during (for example) the peer-review process. They are a great way to keep Julia from writing 10,0...
https://www.the100.ci/2025/01/22/reviewer-notes-in-a-randomized-experiment-the-pre-post-differences-are-not-effect-estimates/
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Ewan Carr
Maarten van Smeden
9 months ago
Let us start 2025 in a positive mood: here are 10 methods things researchers can worry *less* about in 2025
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Ewan Carr
Laure Wynants
9 months ago
We have two vacancies for a postdoctoral and PhD researcher at Maastricht University. They will work on the development and application of value-of-information methods for the validation of clinical risk prediction models and medical AI. links below
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PhD in Epidemiology on value-of-information from validating clinical prediction models and AI
PhD in Epidemiology on value-of-information from validating clinical prediction models and AI
https://vacancies.maastrichtuniversity.nl/job/Maastricht-PhD-in-Epidemiology-on-value-of-information-from-validating-clinical-prediction-models-and-AI/810162102/
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reposted by
Ewan Carr
Ben Van Calster
9 months ago
New work in preprint! "Performance evaluation of predictive AI models to support medical decisions: Overview and guidance". Under the wings of the STRATOS initiative. But
@maartenvsmeden.bsky.social
said it better already 😜
arxiv.org/abs/2412.10288
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Performance evaluation of predictive AI models to support medical decisions: Overview and guidance
A myriad of measures to illustrate performance of predictive artificial intelligence (AI) models have been proposed in the literature. Selecting appropriate performance measures is essential for predi...
http://arxiv.org/abs/2412.10288
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Ewan Carr
Katie Corker
9 months ago
A book that I published a chapter in a couple of years back has been made fully OA, thanks to an anonymous donor. My chapter, "An Open Science Workflow for More Credible Rigorous Research" is here:
www.cambridge.org/core/books/p...
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An Open Science Workflow for More Credible, Rigorous Research (Chapter 11) - The Portable Mentor
The Portable Mentor - August 2022
https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/portable-mentor/an-open-science-workflow-for-more-credible-rigorous-research/37C6B693D20001E07683C61DC08ECEF0
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Ewan Carr
Kristoffer Magnusson
10 months ago
Introducing PowerLMM.js! A new tool for power analysis of longitudinal linear mixed-effects models (LMMs) – with support for missing data, plus non-inferiority and equivalence tests.
powerlmmjs.rpsychologist.com
Would really appreciate your feedback as I refine this app! Details below 🧵👇
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Ewan Carr
Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience
10 months ago
New IoPPN research is dedicated to the memory of co-author Professor Peter McGuffin. Led by Ewan Carr + Raquel Iniesta, the study explores how repeated symptom assessments can enhance predictions of antidepressant treatment response in patients with depression
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
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Optimizing the Prediction of Depression Remission: A Longitudinal Machine Learning Approach
Decisions about when to change antidepressant treatment are complex and benefit from accurate prediction of treatment outcome. Prognostic accuracy can be enhanced by incorporating repeated assessment...
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ajmg.b.33014
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This is an amazing list of references on individual prediction and decision making (including in the comments).
add a skeleton here at some point
10 months ago
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Ewan Carr
Julia M. Rohrer
10 months ago
New post on the 100% Christmas Interval -- after almost 8 years, it's time that we finally talk about CIs.
www.the100.ci/2024/12/05/w...
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Why you are not allowed to say that your 95% confidence interval contains the true parameter with a probability of 95%
A shibboleth is a custom, such as a choice of phrasing, that distinguishes one group of people from another. The term goes back to the Hebrew Bible, in which the inhabitants of Gilead identify members...
https://www.the100.ci/2024/12/05/why-you-are-not-allowed-to-say-that-your-95-confidence-interval-contains-the-true-parameter-with-a-probability-of-95/
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Ewan Carr
Jenny Bryan
10 months ago
Ah, "How to name files", a topic that is near and dear to my 💜 My most recent (and semi-polished) iteration on this stuff was a 5-minute lightning talk for NormConf 2022. Here's the video & the slides:
youtu.be/ES1LTlnpLMk?...
speakerdeck.com/jennybc/how-...
add a skeleton here at some point
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