🌊 The ocean absorbs >90% of Earth’s excess heat, and our ability to track it depends on a fragile global network of floats, ships and sensors. New research warns that cuts to the Global Ocean Observing System could make climate signals indistinguishable from noise. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Sunday 5/24 at 10am PT on Climate Chat: Throwing Shade at Global Warming: Risks & Reality of Planetary Sunshades with Ross Centers. @leonsimons.com @bikingmzstacey.bsky.social @radsci.bsky.social #SRM #Climate #Geoengineering youtube.com/live/hlqBBRI...

🌊 1960–2023: +2.06 mm/year 🌊 2005–2023: +3.94 mm/year What’s driving it? 43% thermal expansion 27% glacier melt 15% Greenland ice loss 12% Antarctica ice loss The biggest shift? We’re moving from ocean warming → to massive ice-sheet melt in Greenland & Antarctica. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

How do different generations of emission scenarios look in terms of Radiative Forcing? @climateofgavin.bsky.social has you covered!

Why an immense marine heatwave off the US west coast has alarmed scientists What does a surge in ocean temperatures, compounded with El Niño, bode for the summer? www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...

Be carefull not to turn mainstream scenarious into religious texts, fat tails exist

Heard in politics: "We'll go clean tomorrow"

Learn more about the world’s best platform for climate solutions. Build on real science, with clear, excellent design. And it’s 100% free, and always will be.

"Effectively communicating worst-case projections of global future climate—hereinafter referred to as worst-case climate outcomes—is essential for risk assessment and developing robust adaptation strategies to global warming"

The thing w solar geoengineering, aside from its immediate side effects: you have to keep doing it forever, or else all the heating from any post-geoengineering emissions hit all at once, in what’s called a “termination shock” (a scarily apt pun, if you ask me). That’s why we can’t start it. 1/2

On a more serious note, using microplastics for geoengineering is absolute madness.Beyond the toxic fallout, it risks "Termination Shock." Masking warming traps latent heat. If we stop spraying, temps will spike instantly, collapsing ecosystems.

(1/3) Even optimistic climate scientists agree we are dangerously behind on phasing out fossil fuels. Those often labeled "alarmists" are simply highlighting the real risk of crossing critical tipping points and feedback loops.

)1/2( A problem with using climate models as a measuring stick for themselves: unexplained deviations are systematically attributed to natural variation — not potential shortcomings in the models.

Mann chose a measuring stick that can't settle the debate. Showing 2024 can fit within model predictions doesn't rule out additional forcing the models don't capture, or that ECS itself is underestimated. These are precisely the questions Hansen & Simons are actually asking.

"Climate change is the reason to freak out, and ideally, in a constructive way, by doing something about it."

*taps the sign*

Sådan håndterer dansk politi fredelige aktivister, med knipler i en voldsrus. Fandme trist at se på, lorte strissere! politiken.dk/danmark/art1...

(1/4) The position that growth economies can operate within planetary boundaries is treated as a neutral null hypothesis. It isn't. It's a strong positive claim — with remarkably thin empirical support.

One of the most important climate discussions: We can no longer meet +2ºC targets without massive amounts of carbon removal (CDR). Those that think CDR is a "moral hazard" are wrong. It's a moral hazard not to do CDR since that guarantees going over 2ºC! www.youtube.com/live/MYWokv0...

We’re now into the public safety portion of climate breakdown. The arguing online to “keep hope alive” ship sailed, hit a rock and sank a few years back. We need real time, actionable plans.

However, they do bring up an issue that we addressed on Climate Chat regarding how forest fire emissions are counted: CO2 Accounting Scam? with Dan Miller & @leonsimons.com youtube.com/live/Vcx6Wyj...

"Even with a lower emissions scenario you can still end up at with a forcing of RCP8.5 (~8.5 W/m² by 2100), only as a result of having "bad luck" on climate feedbacks" Listen to our conversation with @detlefvanvuuren.bsky.social about the new emission scenarios here: www.youtube.com/live/MYWokv0...

Latest El Nino forecast through October, including the C3S models that updated this morning:

Slightly increase a band: Two Feet+

Why should we care that Earth's Energy Imbalance has more than doubled? Because that's what drives the climate to change. It's really that simple!

Shell reported a 24% increase in adjusted profit to $6.92 billion for the first quarter of 2026, driven by the illegal US war on Iran. Cool.

1/ Tanker om prioritering/rationering: Siden 2. verdenskrig har vi ikke haft rationering i Danmark, om end der under oliekriserne i 70’erne var en snert af det (via fx forbud om kørsel om søndagen, undtaget visse formål). #dkpol

The Amazon’s tipping point may be much closer than expected. Just: 👉 1.5-1.9 °C warming, and 👉 22-28% deforestation could trigger a large-scale ecological transition across 62–77% of the Amazon forest. Why? Deforestation creates a self-reinforcing drying cycle… www.nature.com/articles/s41...

RONI better captures the ENSO signal by removing background warming. But ecosystems don't respond to anomalies — they respond to absolute temperatures. A forest doesn't care about the baseline. It cares if it's hot enough to shut down. That threshold moves closer every year.

You don't need high emission scenarios like RCP 8.5 for high risk scenarios to be very serious concerns. If the biosphere, starts becoming a source, and not a sink, because a treshold have been passed, then the concentraion of CO2 will keep climbing. Signs of that happening have already shown.

➡️Forcing causes change. 📈EEI is measured change as it happens and a result of forcings and feedbacks. 🌡️End result is temp change. 🔄At stabilized forcing, the forcing stays positive and EEI becomes zero when new equilibrium temperature is reached. Our paper: essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/...

1/3 What worries me most about near-term climate change isn't the headline disasters. A strong El Niño is likely emerging in 2026 — multi-basin configuration, warm Atlantic, developing positive IOD — historically stress-testing the planet's carbon sinks from multiple directions at once.

One of the wildest climate charts I know of: Canada's 'managed' boreal forest areas used to sequester over 100 Mt CO2 each year (net) from stand regeneration following wildfires, but in the last couple years these have tipped into 'positive' net emissions from decaying soil organic matter.

🧵 Guess the graph — what does this curve describe, and why does its shape matter for climate?

Stop burning fossil fuels!

"Governments &industry must have a laser-like focus on the risks ahead &how to mitigate them. This means nothing less than aggressively cutting emissions &helping communities to become resilient to the impending shocks. To wait &scrub the atmosphere later is to court disaster for people &the planet"

Clear your mind for moment and understand this. We are altering the very #climate of the planet in a way that's dangerous for our own survival and the stability of our ecosystems. With only a few exceptions, our politicians are not only looking the other way but actively making the problem worse.

Signal is real – La Niña rebound, active Kelvin waves, and record-high background SSTs drive warming regardless of El Niño strength. But this forecast crosses Spring Predictability Barrier and CFSv2 runs warm. Worth watching closely. Verified record? Not yet.

Worth noting Denmark faces the same issue. The 70% target includes LULUCF, and the biggest source of apparent reductions since 1990 is coal-to-biomass in heat and power, zero-rated under the same logic. Sweden isn’t an outlier.

Whamond

"Modelling multiple wood-sourcing scenarios, we found that BECCS is unlikely to generate negative emissions within 150 years, is likely to produce higher emissions for decades than using natural gas without carbon capture and is likely to increase electricity costs by ~3.5-fold."

Klima og biodiversitetskriserne kræver din øjeblikkelige opmærksomhed og aktive deltagelse for at blive håndteret. Uden dig, er vi lidt mere på røven end vi behøver at være. På forhånd tak. mvh Brian.

All Climate Chat episodes are now available as audio podcasts on Apple Podcasts (below), Spotify (in thread), etc.! @leonsimons.com @bikingmzstacey.bsky.social @radsci.bsky.social #Climate #Podcast podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/c...

Reelle reduktioner af fossile brændsler der hentes op og brændes af nu for fanden, det er vigtigt, vigtigere end flere penge.

Glaciers had one of their worst years in 2025: 👉 408 billion tonnes of ice mass lost 👉 ≈1.1 mm added to global sea levels 👉 6 of the 7 worst years have happened in the past 7 yrs Since 1975: ~9,600 billion tonnes gone (≈26.4 mm SLR) This isn’t a gradual change... www.nature.com/articles/s43...

The timeline of the late 2010s is peak irony: Trump enters the White House in 2017, and almost immediately after, we felt a desperate global need to formally declare machines as intelligent.

There are many ecological issues that cannot be addressed experimentally Also, experiments in ecology work by controlling for many driver variables & so are severely limited by context specificity & excluding many interactions They only show how x affects y, not the importance of x in real systems