Would be marvellous if you could spread the word 🙂 👍 @chrisgpackham.bsky.social @rupertread.bsky.social @nickharkaway.com @fionaharvey.bsky.social @anthonyhorowitz.com @ghostpanther.bsky.social @matthewtodd.bsky.social @stuartgoldsmith.bsky.social @xrglobal.bsky.social @peterstefanovic.bsky.social

Why the worst-case global heating trajectory has got worse not better Great piece jacksondamian.substack.com/p/move-over-...

I think we, climate physicists, have overlooked something with respect to climatic instabilities... their effect on weather variability... I believe this will be the main problem for our society and economy for the next three generations to come... at least... www.nature.com/articles/d41...

“DAC at the scale needed is mostly a fantasy” It is VERY USEFUL for scientists to say this out loud, as much as possible, since blind faith in carbon removal is one of the baseless ideologies justifying the continuation of fossil-fuel use among global policymakers.

Heat Domes Dominate the Planet! Typically El Niño waits until fall to impact the jet stream, but this one is supercharged. That means the Tropical Pacific heat is already helping to reorganize atmospheric waves leading to persistent and intense heat domes in North America w/ downstream in Europe 1/

RT @NatBullard Once a solar analyst, always a solar analyst - means I can geek out on "line goes like this" chart. 1 gigawatt → 1 terawatt: 20+ years 1 terawatt → 2 terawatt: 33 months 2 terawatt → 3 terawatt: 19 months incomparable work as always from @nicolasfulghum.bsky.social & @ember_energy

That 4.2°C is not the peak of the peak forecasts, mind you.

🚨 The data is finally in for the first quarter of the year, and it's not looking good... Global ocean heat content just set another new record high! Data (anomalies) & methods from www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/globa...

June by numbers: 👉 2nd warmest June globally on record 👉 +1.39°C above the pre-industrial 👉 Western Europe recorded its hottest June ever (+3.06°C 1991–2020) 👉 Record-high June SSTs outside the polar regions The trend is clear and accelerating. climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-r...

You know how glaringly obvious it was from day one Platner was bad news? That’s how obvious it is from the data for climate scientists and meteorologists that we are entering a deadly, chaotic new phase of climate breakdown next year. They are astounded how little ppl are talking about it.

LIVE. #France on maximum alert due to fires and heatwave; nearly 14,500 hectares have "already burned this season". (BFM)

Heat waves today are already stretching us past our limits — and most people have no idea how much worse the next couple of decades will get. We're not prepared for what's coming. We urgently need better ways to communicate the scale of this risk.

Big Oil is set to make things worse. For profit. If Russia or China waged war against us, then we would rightly expect our militaries to go to war with them. Big Oil is greater threat to humanity's survival than even Russia's nuclear weapons. So why do we not fight? Why do we not go to war?

I suspect that powerful and cynical oil companies go pretty far whe it comes to dealing with an existencial problem - climate change. But instead of turning green, they go for destroying trust and blur the truth www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Good news: We can tell you how much the globe will warm if we continue to burn fossil fuels and emit CO₂ at an alarming rate. Bad news: We’re terrible at telling you how bad the impacts will be, and they’re consistently worse than we predicted.

Much nonsense is said, and the tricks of distraction seems to do their job well. Not many cares about more important stuff, like climate change and how to survive it.

Nyeste sesongprognose er sluppet og de bare viser samme tendenser som tidligere - en "super-pluss El Nino" mot slutten av året @met.no. Den kommer også veldig fort etter forrige El Nino (23/24), starter tidlig på året, og et spørsmål er selvsagt om fenomenet El Nino blir påvirket av klimaendringene.

Egypt coach Hossam Hassan dedicated their World Cup win to Palestine.

🌊 The oceans have just set another record. New data show global sea surface temperatures reached the highest June levels ever recorded (20.9°C), surpassing previous records from 2023 and 2024. www.theguardian.com/environment/...

The first July ENSO model runs are now available from the two Canadian models (CanSIPS CanESM5 and GEM-NEMO). There is abig (~0.6C) increase in the projected El Nino intensity for CanESM5, which had been one of the cooler models, and a smaller 0.2C bump for GEM-NEMO.

Growing kelp might not be a viable CO₂ removal technique.

If you'd like to find out what recent research has revealed about Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier and what this means for future sea-level rise, this is a good place to start. Great overview in @newscientist.com by Alison George. www.newscientist.com/article/2526...

@germanyintheeu.bsky.social Germany is currently enduring a dangerous heatwave, with temperatures of over 40ºC, because of greenhouse gas emissions. Katherina Reiche, Germany's federal minister for economic affairs and energy, is trying to kill people. She should be charged with culpable homicide.

I especially love this diagram.

This is getting ridiculous. Germany has preliminarily set a new all-time heat record with 41.3°C in Saarbrücken. Until this extraordinary heatwave, the country had never recorded a temperature above 40°C in June. More extreme heat is expected this weekend.

This is THE issue as we get closer and closer to the point where geoengineering is the only option. We may even already be there now. #ClimateCrisis

Your 'moment of doom' for June 19, 2026 ~ Unknown unknowns. "For example, how much more carbon dioxide will be emitted as wildfires increase? How much more methane will bubble up from fermenting wetlands or seep from thawing permafrost?" e360.yale.edu/features/war...

Fossil-fuel propagandists argue that innovation will protect our agricultural system from #ClimateChange, but they hide the fact that wild pollinators and fertile soil are disappearing quickly, those “ecosystem services” are finite and irreplaceable, and without them we can’t grow food.

Model-based studies often reflect Global North narratives in scenario databases, assume persistent inequalities, obscure ethical or normative choices behind justice, & fail to systematically include stakeholders & scientists from the Global South. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Heat waves increase wildfire risk. A startling wildfire statistic: Heat waves = only 12–15% of warm-season days Yet they account for ~42% of total area burned Heat wave days in western US forests nearly doubled since 2001, boosting forest fires by 37%. theconversation.com/heat-waves-i...

4.4 standard deviations?! To put into perspective how strong this El Niño has the “potential” to be, I plotted it on the Bell Curve/ distribution of all El Nino, La Niña, & neutral months since 1850 (over 2K). The dynamical model ensemble median forecast peak anomaly is +3.3°C in Dec 2026 1/

Scientists could dim the Sun as a quick fix for the climate crisis. Here's why it could cause global chaos www.skyatnightmagazine.com/space-scienc...

"If we really want to protect the planet, the best way is most likely to stop the capitalist death machine from plundering our planet for all that it’s worth with no regard for human or non-human life." bioethicstoday.org/blog/climate... #ClimateBrawl

The area near the #Galapagos Islands are very hot. About 6-10F above normal. Obviously this has very negative implications for wildlife on/around the islands and the coastal communities / fisherman in Ecuador, Peru, etc...

Earth's Energy Imbalance is becoming a headline #climate metric A metric never just measures a problem, it represents one. Each representation carries a solution Heat imbalance invites heat management i.e. geoengineering. Drivers invite system change Metric choice is political, not a technical

1/ June-initialized ENSO forecasts are in — past the spring predictability barrier, where convergence carries real skill. Even in relative (RONI) terms, the multi-model median of 2.8°C would exceed the strongest event on record (1982-83: 2.52°C). Why that matters: 🧵

With June runs in for all the ENSO models and the "spring predictability barrier" mostly behind us, the odds of a record-breaking El Niño event this fall have continued to increase. Here are all the latest runs (including today's C3S updates):

Global CO2 emissions have slowed down, therefore we expect atmospheric CO2 to be lower than if emissions continued to grow. I did a figure quite similar to @hausfath.bsky.social a while back & it is the same story (& similar numbers): www.theclimatebrink.com/p/plateauing... But, is it correct? 1/

Three fun facts: 1: the trajectory of human development is now mass suicide 2: if we really get a super El Nino this would be a striking sign that global warming is now spiraling out of control 3: the planck cooling feedback is now weakening as well - hurray! Oh no, he is an alarmist! #climate

Interesting new perspective on the Anthropocene: It’s like quicksand. Getting in was easy. Getting out could take thousands of years. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

Global mangrove coverage increased by ~5,000 hectares between 2020 and 2025, a rare trend reversal for a key carbon sink. Why it matters: 👉Protects coastlines from storms 👉Supports fisheries & biodiversity 👉4x more carbon stored per hectare than many tropical forests www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Some positive climate news: 👉 Tropical forests are expanding into previously unforested areas 👉 Their carbon uptake has exceeded secondary forest regrowth in recent decades Natural regeneration is a meaningful additional tropical carbon sink 🌳 www.nature.com/articles/s41...

"The authors report that the occurrence of extensive deforestation in tandem with climate change will cause the remaining rainforest to lose resilience at global-warming levels of or slightly higher than 1.5 °C — rather than 4 °C — above pre-industrial levels"

#Biodiversity #climate #science colleagues - please do sign/share share the Wildlife and Climate Scientific Consensus that wild animals and their functional roles must be integrated into climate policies, frameworks, #NbS to strengthen holistic climate & biodiversity action bit.ly/4vi9V6a #rewilding

Another big El Nino update: CanSIPS (the Canadian modeling group) updated their April 30th run to a new May 31st one, with a big impact (+0.9C) on the cooler CanESM5 model. That model, along with Germany's DWD, had been the only ones perviously forecasting a relatively weak event.

The green transition needs a politics of forward accountability — where entry is determined by what you commit to, not what you've done. Without that, we build a movement of the already-converted, and lose the numbers we actually need.

Some days I read more post complaining about AI, than posts about phase out fossil fuels. As I see it, a transition away from FF in the needed pace, a fast transition away from FF, would be the end of many datacenters.

If you're in Denmark and would like to hear me talk about Antarctic climate on long and short timescales as well as the latest research insights and our fieldwork in #iQ2300 then come past Niels Bohr Institute Thursday at 5pm where DAMS are hosting an evening of talks on Antarctica. Register: