(@umsonst.bsky.social)

Who cares for facts? My biggest problem, I can not otherwise to identify nonsense and wrong positions when I encounter them... So all who proclaim a super El Nino in 2026 have no understanding when predictions are reliable and when they are not... #climate #Earth

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Jan Umsonst (@taoistattack) A short on all this super El Nino forecast nonsense that fills now the ether... First there exist a spring prediction barrier with forecasts being highly unreliable before July. Secondly, subsurface temperature anomalies are not integrated in most forecast models which show at the moment no Super El Nino as warm water anomalies in the western Pacific and temperature anomalies are too low currently. Added two graphs showing the recent trends. Not too much but an El Nino certainly being possible. But this does not mean that we will not get a strong El Nino in terms of temperature rise as no strong El Nino is needed as 2023/24 had shown so http://strikingly.Here http://strikingly.Here what they write: Furthermore, once an ENSO event has been sufficiently stimulated in July, it usually persists until the following February, with high predictability. However, the prediction skill made before July is much lower for all forecasting models (Barnston et al., 2012), which is termed as the spring predictability barrier (SPB) (Clarke, 2014). Despite decades of research on forecasting the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the past decades, skillfully predicting the ENSO across the spring predictability barrier remains challenging. In this study, we utilize the ensemble of four model products to identify a new subsurface precursor consisting of the anomalous equatorial zonal velocity over 180°–150°W and 140–180 m and potential temperature in the western Pacific (over 120°–140°E and 120–160 m), which could predict the ENSO before spring by applying regression analysis. Such a precursor can predict the Niño 3.4 index in December at a lead time of 13 months with a regressed correlation of 0.79. The anomalous subsurface zonal velocity in the central Pacific favors the eastward migration of the warm water during the development of El Niño. Further validations with diverse training and application periods indicate that for initialization in November, this new precursor shows high skills in predicting the Niño 3.4 index at a lead time of 6–18 months over 1993–2016, outperforming counterparts for the other traditional precursors. Our study can help highlight the importance of subsurface processes in the ENSO development, improving our general ability to predict the ENSO, and enabling better preparedness for the implications of its occurrence. "A new subsurface precursor across the spring predictability barrier for the ENSO prediction"; https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0967063723002522 https://substack.com/profile/301312123-jan-umsonst/note/c-241201162?r=4ze5x7&utm_source=notes-share-action&utm_medium=web