Forget derisking. 2025 is about the the quiet MAGA-fication of the European mainstream, one green regulation rollback and green subsidy cut at a time. geoeconomic.substack.com/p/the-wartbu...

Initial thoughts on the 2040 target: The Council wants to count 5% Article 6 credits towards 2040. Timing/volume are contested, but the key question is *where* credits fit - ETS, agriculture/LULUCF, or a safety valve are on the table. Defining clear rules for credit use will be the real challenge /1

Nach Angriffen auf das #ETS mehren sich endlich verteidigende Stimmen: Das ETS trägt keine Schuld an strukturellen Industrieproblemen. Europa ist beim Klimaschutz kein Geisterfahrer. Was wir brauchen: pragmatischen Wettbewerbsschutz und Negativemissionen im ETS. Sonst droht reine Symptombekämpfung.

Very stoked for this year's #AriadneEU in Brussels! Plenty on the menu -- from geeky #ETS deep dives to broader post-2030 climate #policy debates. Program and registration link below 👇

How can #EU climate policy advance in a polarising world? Join researchers & policymakers in Brussels (and online) for your choice of deep dives into carbon markets, industrial transition and much more. Dec 8–10; Register 👉 www.forms.ecologic.eu/ariadne2025 News 👉 ariadneprojekt.de/en/news-en/n...

It's worth reading Nils' points also in the context of #ETS2. At its core, ETS2 shifts relative prices in favor of EVs. Hence, ot should be seen as core element of a broader industrial policy toolkit, where eco-bonuses and subsidies act as helpful complements to steer the transition.

By every metric, the industry is in deep trouble — and none of it has anything to do with future emission rules or an engine ban a decade away. In fact, the future of cars is electric - not because of Brussels regulation, but because EVs will soon be much cheaper to make and run.

Finally, some clarity on ETS2 safeguards: early auctions for price discovery, frontloading for acceptability, and a more responsive MSR to smooth prices. Curious whether this will satisfy Member States and where discussions will go once details are clear. climate.ec.europa.eu/news-other-r...

„Failure is not inevitable. It is a choice.“ — PIK Director Rockström at the UN Climate Summit

Read his speech in full here: www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late...

1/ Wochenlang haben alle auf den Monitoringbericht zum Stand der Energiewende und die Schlussfolgerungen des Wirtschaftsministeriums gewartet. Nun sind die Dokumente da - aber sind wir jetzt so viel schlauer als vorher? 🧵

1/ New report from @bentleyallan.bsky.social's Net Zero Policy Lab: As the US withdraws from green tech industries and pressures allies to follow suit, China is stepping in to power the developing world's energy transition. The scale is staggering. www.netzeropolicylab.com/china-green-...

NEW: Vote on 2040 climate target canceled after big EU governments — including France + Germany — blocked the decision to ensure leaders get a say. On Tuesday, countries will decide the fate of the 2035 Paris Agreement plan/NDC. Full story w/ @l-guillot.bsky.social www.politico.eu/article/vote...

Table.Media greift den Clinch in der BuReg auf. Das Kanzleramt versucht offenbar gerade über einen Termintrick die europäischen Klimaziele für 2040 zu pulverisieren. Wie stinkig die SPD sich öffentlich äußert: Überraschend deutlich.

Macron has just appointed Sebastian Lecornu, from the centrist ranks, as new PM. Short 🧵/1 www.lemonde.fr/politique/li...

Vor dem Autogipfel fordern manche wieder das Ende der Flottengrenzwerte: Söder teilt aus, auch die Grünen wanken. Laut @transportenvironment.org droht aber nur Mercedes die Grenzwerte zu reißen. Den anderen hilft va. die neue 2025-27 Flexibilität. www.transportenvironment.org/uploads/file...

Wir können es uns nicht leisten, *keinen* Klimaschutz umzusetzen, sagt Keywan Riahi (@iiasa.ac.at). "Denn die jetzige Misere in Europa ist ja entstanden, weil wir von fossilen Energieträgern abhängig sind und uns damit verletzlich gemacht haben." #WissenSchafftKlimaschutz

Strong support for the inclusion of permanent carbon removals in the EU ETS, as per the European Commission's public consultation on the 2040 climate target. More public views on MSR, CBAM, linking, etc. here: ec.europa.eu/info/law/bet...

If every single ton of this 1,460 GtCO2 would be used to remove CO2 from the atmosphere, we could reverse 0.7°C of global warming. And this estimate is a clear ceiling, because... /4

„The message in this report is that the EU must not abandon its values and green ambition, but it must express them in ways that are realistic and compelling (…). It means embracing a Green Realpolitik.“ @thijsvandegraaf.bsky.social big-europe.eu/publications...

1/ Trump's recent trade agreements with allies are revealing significant interpretation gaps. From Japan to South Korea to the EU, these deals lack formal documentation, creating ongoing disputes over fundamental terms.

In order for the #EuropeanUnion to achieve its ambitious #goals, it must make its #climatepolicy more efficient, send stable price signals to businesses, and ensure long-term #financing for the #energytransition, conclude Ariadne researchers in a new #background. 👉 ariadneprojekt.de/en/news-en/n...

Some holiday thoughts on the EU-US "deal" ... [something to do while the baby has a nap] mostfavourednation.substack.com/p/some-thoug...

Not exactly a good day (but perhaps a timely one) to revisit this recent Bruegel analysis on the economic consequences of Trump tariffs on the EU, by @niclaspoitiers.bsky.social and colleagues. www.bruegel.org/analysis/eco...

Einblicke in Bürger*innenperspektiven zur Klimapolitik vom #Ariadne Gipfel: CO2-Preis und Förderprogramme werden befürwortet - wenn sie sozial gerecht ausgestaltet sind. Wichtig auch: Deliberationsformate verschieben die Debatte. Nicht ob, sondern *wie* wir Klimaschutz umsetzen, rückt ins Zentrum.

Die #Ariadne-Bürgerkonferenz zeigt: Die gesellschaftliche #Akzeptanz für #Klimaschutzmaßnahmen steigt, wenn die #Verteilung von #Kosten und #Nutzen als gerecht empfunden werden – auch mit Blick auf künftige #Generationen. Hier geht's zum vollständigen #Report👉 ariadneprojekt.de/publikation/...

EU and China released a joint statement on climate, pledging to deliver 2035 NDCs ahead of COP30. Well, words on paper… but definitely ramping up reputational pressure on EU Member States to settle on new climate targets after summer. www.consilium.europa.eu/de/press/pre...

🔥 ⚖️ 🌐HAPPENING NOW: Historic #ClimateJustice Ruling being delivered by the 🇺🇳 🧑‍⚖️ International Court of Justice. 🚨This ruling could signal a new dawn for climate law & accountability 📝 🧵 Live thread below with context, summary & analysis 👇 #ClimateJusticeAO #AOLetsGo

We’re delighted to announce the appointment of Nigel Topping CMG the new Chair of the Committee from 23 July. Read the announcement here ⬇️ www.theccc.org.uk/2025/07/22/n...

National minimum prices deserve more attention in this context - esp. in DE, the major ETS2 emitter with a rel. high domestic price already in place. A DE top-up would be a fair contribution to emission cuts. More importantly, it could lower ETS2 prices and support the system's political viability.

Merz warns that corporate car CO2 standards threaten core industrial competences. Quite unfortunate to see the Chancellor reinforces the tale that climate policy leads to deindustrialization - a mindset that itself risks turning Europe into an industrial museum rather than net-zero technology hub.

Working paper update 👇

Sharp synthesis of the 2024 landmark reports by Letta and Draghi and their implications for the EU's economic agenda. Now, the 2028-34 MFF negotiations will test whether the EU truly backs its new competitiveness agenda - with sufficient financial commitment and, crucially, political legitimacy.

Much more sweeping is the change that the COM has just proposed a massive shift in the shares in the budget away from regional and agricultural policy towards common spending on things like decarbonisation or innovation. This is an important step to match the EU budget and proclaimed EU priorities.

The Socialists in the EP have leveraged a no-confidence vote put up by the far right to effectively gut a major part of the reform of the EU budget. Stunning development that further imperils the prospect for a major MFF reform. I had hopes that this time would be different. But I was naive. Thread:

Short 🧵 on the #EU 2040 climate target. Now that some dust has settled, two key questions on the role of #Article6 credits stand out: To what extent will the EU and Member States actually rely on them for cost containment? How will costs and (potential) benefits be distributed?

3% int’l credits in the EU’s 2040 climate target would add ~140 MtCO2 (+30% than 90% domestic-only). But implementation details matter: If phased in from 2036-40 and phased out by 2050, int’l credits could even lead to an extra year of EU emissions. www.oeko.de/fileadmin/oe...

🧵 Sündenbock Klimapolitik? Klimaschutz wird zuletzt oft für Wettbewerbsverluste, Deindustrialisierung & Wohlstandseinbußen verantwortlich gemacht. In @politischemeinung.bsky.social argumentieren wir: Das ist irreführend. Aus mindestens 3 Gründen führt an einem ehrgeizigen Klimakurs kein Weg vorbei.

German Social Democracy is not dead folks

Now free to read: 🚨 Draft 2040 climate target proposal 🚨 Commission to permit international carbon credit use from 2036, limited to 3pp of the 90 percent target. Excludes possibility of using them in EU carbon market. www.politico.eu/article/eu-c...

This is a good read on the high risk approach of VDL to save her green legacy from her own parties hostility and revanchism; if she isn’t going to draw a line soon and be able to enforce it there will be little left of it www.politico.eu/article/ursu...

❗ This is BIG news for China #Carbon market 🌟 China released NEW high-level policy (Opinions) to strengthen the national Carbon market - Expand ETS to All sectors and Aviation by 2027 - Absolute Cap for ETS by 2030, starting in 2027 for sectors with steady emissions

Headlines on international media report on 3 (or 2) years left before we exhaust the 1.5C carbon budget. How did this year’s IGCC estimate of the remaining carbon budget end up with a 74% reduction compared to the latest @IPCC_CH report? A short deeper dive. /1

The remaining 1.5C carbon budget could be just 130 GtCO2. At 2024 emissions, it will be gone in ca. 3 years. Carbon removals are no longer optional. "Clean up the mess!" isn't just good advice - it's the new imperative of climate policy.

My favorite annual report is out: State & Trends of Carbon Pricing 2025 by the World Bank. Some key messages: (1) Carbon pricing systems now cover 28% of global GHG emissions (Chinese ETS expansion to industry added 3bn tCO2e; termination of the Canadian federal fuel charge reduced coverage)

New projections put ETS2 prices at 100-150€ by 2030 - much less than earlier indicated. Robust fleet standards are likely the most effective safeguard against ETS2 price spikes. Weakening them poses serious risk to ETS2 political survival.

Neue SWP-Publikation zur Rolle internationaler Zertifikate in der EU-Klimapolitik. Die EU steht vor der entscheidenden Frage, wie ihr neues Emissionsminderungsziel für 2040 aussehen soll - und welche Rolle Art. 6 Zertifikate dabei spielen können und sollen. www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/... /1

Diese Forderung des VDA verheißt nichts Gutes für das Preisniveau im ETS2. Immerhin sind die Flottengrenzwerte wohl der wichtigste „Backstop“ gegen sozial unverträgliche CO2-Preise im Verkehr.

Finding a landing zone for 2040 is incredibly tough for Hoekstra, squeezed between climate advisers rejecting int'l credits and EU capitals demanding them. Taking int'l credits off the table is nearly impossible - key now is to find a policy that balances integrity concerns with political pressure.

EU capitals are calling for flexibility to meet climate goals. Today, the ESABCC reaffirms its guidance as a benchmark for the 2040 debate. The target must be >90% net & domestic to ensure credibility. Int'l credits aren't a shortcut - flexibility should come from scaling CDR with solid governance.