Christopher Leisinger
@cleisinger.bsky.social
📤 2311
📥 498
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policy analyst
@pik-potsdam.bsky.social
directors team climate policy, the EU & economics.
reposted by
Christopher Leisinger
29 days ago
Forget derisking. 2025 is about the the quiet MAGA-fication of the European mainstream, one green regulation rollback and green subsidy cut at a time.
geoeconomic.substack.com/p/the-wartbu...
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The Wartburg Syndrome
How the Old Continent Risks Becoming the New East Germany
https://geoeconomic.substack.com/p/the-wartburg-syndrome
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Initial thoughts on the 2040 target: The Council wants to count 5% Article 6 credits towards 2040. Timing/volume are contested, but the key question is *where* credits fit - ETS, agriculture/LULUCF, or a safety valve are on the table. Defining clear rules for credit use will be the real challenge /1
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about 1 month ago
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Nach Angriffen auf das
#ETS
mehren sich endlich verteidigende Stimmen: Das ETS trägt keine Schuld an strukturellen Industrieproblemen. Europa ist beim Klimaschutz kein Geisterfahrer. Was wir brauchen: pragmatischen Wettbewerbsschutz und Negativemissionen im ETS. Sonst droht reine Symptombekämpfung.
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about 1 month ago
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Very stoked for this year's
#AriadneEU
in Brussels! Plenty on the menu -- from geeky
#ETS
deep dives to broader post-2030 climate
#policy
debates. Program and registration link below 👇
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about 2 months ago
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Christopher Leisinger
Kopernikus-Projekt Ariadne
about 2 months ago
How can
#EU
climate policy advance in a polarising world? Join researchers & policymakers in Brussels (and online) for your choice of deep dives into carbon markets, industrial transition and much more. Dec 8–10; Register 👉
www.forms.ecologic.eu/ariadne2025
News 👉
ariadneprojekt.de/en/news-en/n...
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It's worth reading Nils' points also in the context of
#ETS2
. At its core, ETS2 shifts relative prices in favor of EVs. Hence, ot should be seen as core element of a broader industrial policy toolkit, where eco-bonuses and subsidies act as helpful complements to steer the transition.
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about 2 months ago
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reposted by
Christopher Leisinger
Nils Redeker
about 2 months ago
By every metric, the industry is in deep trouble — and none of it has anything to do with future emission rules or an engine ban a decade away. In fact, the future of cars is electric - not because of Brussels regulation, but because EVs will soon be much cheaper to make and run.
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Finally, some clarity on ETS2 safeguards: early auctions for price discovery, frontloading for acceptability, and a more responsive MSR to smooth prices. Curious whether this will satisfy Member States and where discussions will go once details are clear.
climate.ec.europa.eu/news-other-r...
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Ensuring a stable start for Europe’s new carbon market for buildings and road transport
The Commission will soon propose measures to ensure a smooth start of the new EU Emissions Trading System for road transport and buildings (ETS2), addressing price stability and investment needs. Plan...
https://climate.ec.europa.eu/news-other-reads/news/ensuring-stable-start-europes-new-carbon-market-buildings-and-road-transport-2025-10-21_en
about 2 months ago
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„Failure is not inevitable. It is a choice.“ — PIK Director Rockström at the UN Climate Summit
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3 months ago
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Christopher Leisinger
PIK_climate
3 months ago
Read his speech in full here:
www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late...
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Johan Rockström addresses heads of state during United Nations General Assembly: “failure is not inevitable, it is a choice”
24.09.2025 – Johan Rockström, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) addressed heads of state, ministers and other dignitaries in New York today.
https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/johan-rockstrom-addresses-heads-of-state-during-united-nations-general-assembly-201cfailure-is-not-inevitable-it-is-a-choice201d
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reposted by
Christopher Leisinger
Wolf-Peter Schill
3 months ago
1/ Wochenlang haben alle auf den Monitoringbericht zum Stand der Energiewende und die Schlussfolgerungen des Wirtschaftsministeriums gewartet. Nun sind die Dokumente da - aber sind wir jetzt so viel schlauer als vorher? 🧵
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Monitoringbericht zur Energiewende vorgelegt – Bundesministerin Katherina Reiche schlägt zehn Schlüsselmaßnahmen vor
Wir bitten Sie an dieser Stelle um Ihre Einwilligung für die Nutzung unseres Videodienstes. Nähere Informationen zu allen Diensten finden Sie, wenn Sie die Pluszeichen rechts aufklappen. Sie können…
https://www.bundeswirtschaftsministerium.de/Redaktion/DE/Pressemitteilungen/2025/09/20250915-monitoringbericht-zur-energiewende-vorgelegt-bundesministerin-katherina-reiche-schlaegt-zehn-schluesselmassnahmen-vor.html
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reposted by
Christopher Leisinger
Jonas Nahm
3 months ago
1/ New report from
@bentleyallan.bsky.social
's Net Zero Policy Lab: As the US withdraws from green tech industries and pressures allies to follow suit, China is stepping in to power the developing world's energy transition. The scale is staggering.
www.netzeropolicylab.com/china-green-...
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China Green Leap Outward — Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab
A new China Low Carbon Technology FDI Database
https://www.netzeropolicylab.com/china-green-leap
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reposted by
Christopher Leisinger
Zia Weise
3 months ago
NEW: Vote on 2040 climate target canceled after big EU governments — including France + Germany — blocked the decision to ensure leaders get a say. On Tuesday, countries will decide the fate of the 2035 Paris Agreement plan/NDC. Full story w/
@l-guillot.bsky.social
www.politico.eu/article/vote...
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Vote on 2040 climate target canceled after big EU countries block decision
Decision casts doubt over whether EU can present climate plan in time for U.N. gathering this month.
https://www.politico.eu/article/vote-on-eus-2040-climate-target-canceled-after-biggest-countries-block-decision/
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reposted by
Christopher Leisinger
Frau Büüsker
3 months ago
Table.Media greift den Clinch in der BuReg auf. Das Kanzleramt versucht offenbar gerade über einen Termintrick die europäischen Klimaziele für 2040 zu pulverisieren. Wie stinkig die SPD sich öffentlich äußert: Überraschend deutlich.
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reposted by
Christopher Leisinger
Giovanni Capoccia
3 months ago
Macron has just appointed Sebastian Lecornu, from the centrist ranks, as new PM. Short 🧵/1
www.lemonde.fr/politique/li...
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En direct, Sébastien Lecornu nommé premier ministre : Emmanuel Macron « prend le risque de la colère sociale », dénonce le PS
La passation de pouvoir entre François Bayrou, qui a présenté sa démission à Emmanuel Macron ce mardi, et son successeur à Matignon est prévue mercredi à midi. L’ex-ministre des armées proposera un go...
https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/live/2025/09/09/en-direct-mouvement-du-10-septembre-un-gouvernement-demissionnaire-fragilise-face-aux-craintes-d-actions-radicales_6639805_823448.html
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Vor dem Autogipfel fordern manche wieder das Ende der Flottengrenzwerte: Söder teilt aus, auch die Grünen wanken. Laut
@transportenvironment.org
droht aber nur Mercedes die Grenzwerte zu reißen. Den anderen hilft va. die neue 2025-27 Flexibilität.
www.transportenvironment.org/uploads/file...
3 months ago
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Christopher Leisinger
Daniel Huppmann
3 months ago
Wir können es uns nicht leisten, *keinen* Klimaschutz umzusetzen, sagt Keywan Riahi (
@iiasa.ac.at
). "Denn die jetzige Misere in Europa ist ja entstanden, weil wir von fossilen Energieträgern abhängig sind und uns damit verletzlich gemacht haben."
#WissenSchafftKlimaschutz
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Klimaziel aufweichen? "Das wäre unverantwortlich", warnt Klimaforscher Riahi
Österreichs Top-Wissenschafter Keywan Riahi berät die EU-Kommission und erklärt, warum Europa den Ausstoß der klimaschädlichen Treibhausgase bis 2040 drastisch senken muss
https://www.derstandard.at/story/3000000286720/klimaziel-aufweichen-das-waere-unverantwortlich-warnt-klimaforscher-riahi
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Strong support for the inclusion of permanent carbon removals in the EU ETS, as per the European Commission's public consultation on the 2040 climate target. More public views on MSR, CBAM, linking, etc. here:
ec.europa.eu/info/law/bet...
3 months ago
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reposted by
Christopher Leisinger
Joeri Rogelj
3 months ago
If every single ton of this 1,460 GtCO2 would be used to remove CO2 from the atmosphere, we could reverse 0.7°C of global warming. And this estimate is a clear ceiling, because... /4
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„The message in this report is that the EU must not abandon its values and green ambition, but it must express them in ways that are realistic and compelling (…). It means embracing a Green Realpolitik.“
@thijsvandegraaf.bsky.social
big-europe.eu/publications...
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Green Realpolitik: Recasting Europe’s Climate and Energy Diplomacy
https://big-europe.eu/publications/big005-green-realpolitik-recasting-europe-s-climate-and-energy-diplomacy
4 months ago
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reposted by
Christopher Leisinger
Jonas Nahm
4 months ago
1/ Trump's recent trade agreements with allies are revealing significant interpretation gaps. From Japan to South Korea to the EU, these deals lack formal documentation, creating ongoing disputes over fundamental terms.
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reposted by
Christopher Leisinger
Kopernikus-Projekt Ariadne
5 months ago
In order for the
#EuropeanUnion
to achieve its ambitious
#goals
, it must make its
#climatepolicy
more efficient, send stable price signals to businesses, and ensure long-term
#financing
for the
#energytransition
, conclude Ariadne researchers in a new
#background
. 👉
ariadneprojekt.de/en/news-en/n...
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reposted by
Christopher Leisinger
Sam Lowe
5 months ago
Some holiday thoughts on the EU-US "deal" ... [something to do while the baby has a nap]
mostfavourednation.substack.com/p/some-thoug...
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Some thoughts on the EU-US deal
Another holiday edition
https://mostfavourednation.substack.com/p/some-thoughts-on-the-eu-us-deal
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Not exactly a good day (but perhaps a timely one) to revisit this recent Bruegel analysis on the economic consequences of Trump tariffs on the EU, by
@niclaspoitiers.bsky.social
and colleagues.
www.bruegel.org/analysis/eco...
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The economic impact of Trump’s tariffs on Europe: an initial assessment
It is likely that Trump’s tariffs will be a limited hit to Europe, though some regions and industries could suffer and may need protective measures
https://www.bruegel.org/analysis/economic-impact-trumps-tariffs-europe-initial-assessment
5 months ago
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Einblicke in Bürger*innenperspektiven zur Klimapolitik vom
#Ariadne
Gipfel: CO2-Preis und Förderprogramme werden befürwortet - wenn sie sozial gerecht ausgestaltet sind. Wichtig auch: Deliberationsformate verschieben die Debatte. Nicht ob, sondern *wie* wir Klimaschutz umsetzen, rückt ins Zentrum.
add a skeleton here at some point
5 months ago
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reposted by
Christopher Leisinger
Kopernikus-Projekt Ariadne
5 months ago
Die
#Ariadne-Bürgerkonferenz
zeigt: Die gesellschaftliche
#Akzeptanz
für
#Klimaschutzmaßnahmen
steigt, wenn die
#Verteilung
von
#Kosten
und
#Nutzen
als gerecht empfunden werden – auch mit Blick auf künftige
#Generationen
. Hier geht's zum vollständigen
#Report👉
ariadneprojekt.de/publikation/...
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EU and China released a joint statement on climate, pledging to deliver 2035 NDCs ahead of COP30. Well, words on paper… but definitely ramping up reputational pressure on EU Member States to settle on new climate targets after summer.
www.consilium.europa.eu/de/press/pre...
5 months ago
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reposted by
Christopher Leisinger
🌍⚖️ Sébastien Duyck
5 months ago
🔥 ⚖️ 🌐HAPPENING NOW: Historic
#ClimateJustice
Ruling being delivered by the 🇺🇳 🧑⚖️ International Court of Justice. 🚨This ruling could signal a new dawn for climate law & accountability 📝 🧵 Live thread below with context, summary & analysis 👇
#ClimateJusticeAO
#AOLetsGo
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reposted by
Christopher Leisinger
Climate Change Committee
5 months ago
We’re delighted to announce the appointment of Nigel Topping CMG the new Chair of the Committee from 23 July. Read the announcement here ⬇️
www.theccc.org.uk/2025/07/22/n...
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National minimum prices deserve more attention in this context - esp. in DE, the major ETS2 emitter with a rel. high domestic price already in place. A DE top-up would be a fair contribution to emission cuts. More importantly, it could lower ETS2 prices and support the system's political viability.
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5 months ago
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Merz warns that corporate car CO2 standards threaten core industrial competences. Quite unfortunate to see the Chancellor reinforces the tale that climate policy leads to deindustrialization - a mindset that itself risks turning Europe into an industrial museum rather than net-zero technology hub.
5 months ago
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Christopher Leisinger
Christian Flachsland
5 months ago
Working paper update 👇
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Sharp synthesis of the 2024 landmark reports by Letta and Draghi and their implications for the EU's economic agenda. Now, the 2028-34 MFF negotiations will test whether the EU truly backs its new competitiveness agenda - with sufficient financial commitment and, crucially, political legitimacy.
add a skeleton here at some point
5 months ago
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reposted by
Christopher Leisinger
Lucas Guttenberg
5 months ago
Much more sweeping is the change that the COM has just proposed a massive shift in the shares in the budget away from regional and agricultural policy towards common spending on things like decarbonisation or innovation. This is an important step to match the EU budget and proclaimed EU priorities.
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Christopher Leisinger
Lucas Guttenberg
5 months ago
The Socialists in the EP have leveraged a no-confidence vote put up by the far right to effectively gut a major part of the reform of the EU budget. Stunning development that further imperils the prospect for a major MFF reform. I had hopes that this time would be different. But I was naive. Thread:
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Socialists to support von der Leyen in no-confidence vote after she backs down on EU budget
European Commission president expected to easily survive ― but she has made two major concessions.
https://www.politico.eu/article/socialist-ursula-von-der-leyen-eu-budget-seven-year-commission-president/
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Short 🧵 on the
#EU
2040 climate target. Now that some dust has settled, two key questions on the role of
#Article6
credits stand out: To what extent will the EU and Member States actually rely on them for cost containment? How will costs and (potential) benefits be distributed?
5 months ago
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3% int’l credits in the EU’s 2040 climate target would add ~140 MtCO2 (+30% than 90% domestic-only). But implementation details matter: If phased in from 2036-40 and phased out by 2050, int’l credits could even lead to an extra year of EU emissions.
www.oeko.de/fileadmin/oe...
5 months ago
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🧵 Sündenbock Klimapolitik? Klimaschutz wird zuletzt oft für Wettbewerbsverluste, Deindustrialisierung & Wohlstandseinbußen verantwortlich gemacht. In
@politischemeinung.bsky.social
argumentieren wir: Das ist irreführend. Aus mindestens 3 Gründen führt an einem ehrgeizigen Klimakurs kein Weg vorbei.
5 months ago
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Christopher Leisinger
Julius Kölzer
5 months ago
German Social Democracy is not dead folks
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Christopher Leisinger
Zia Weise
6 months ago
Now free to read: 🚨 Draft 2040 climate target proposal 🚨 Commission to permit international carbon credit use from 2036, limited to 3pp of the 90 percent target. Excludes possibility of using them in EU carbon market.
www.politico.eu/article/eu-c...
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Next EU climate target to allow carbon offsets from 2036, draft shows
Controversial international carbon credits won’t be applicable to the EU carbon market, though.
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-comission-climate-target-2036-plan/
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Christopher Leisinger
Pieter de Pous
6 months ago
This is a good read on the high risk approach of VDL to save her green legacy from her own parties hostility and revanchism; if she isn’t going to draw a line soon and be able to enforce it there will be little left of it
www.politico.eu/article/ursu...
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Ursula von der Leyen amputates the Green Deal to save its life
Last year’s European election reshaped EU politics. The Commission president must acknowledge a new alternative right-wing majority even as she fights to preserve her signature political achi…
https://www.politico.eu/article/ursula-von-der-leyen-green-deal-eu-politics-economy-policy/
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Christopher Leisinger
Yan Qin
6 months ago
❗ This is BIG news for China
#Carbon
market 🌟 China released NEW high-level policy (Opinions) to strengthen the national Carbon market - Expand ETS to All sectors and Aviation by 2027 - Absolute Cap for ETS by 2030, starting in 2027 for sectors with steady emissions
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Christopher Leisinger
Joeri Rogelj
6 months ago
Headlines on international media report on 3 (or 2) years left before we exhaust the 1.5C carbon budget. How did this year’s IGCC estimate of the remaining carbon budget end up with a 74% reduction compared to the latest @IPCC_CH report? A short deeper dive. /1
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The remaining 1.5C carbon budget could be just 130 GtCO2. At 2024 emissions, it will be gone in ca. 3 years. Carbon removals are no longer optional. "Clean up the mess!" isn't just good advice - it's the new imperative of climate policy.
add a skeleton here at some point
6 months ago
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Christopher Leisinger
Christian Flachsland
6 months ago
My favorite annual report is out: State & Trends of Carbon Pricing 2025 by the World Bank. Some key messages: (1) Carbon pricing systems now cover 28% of global GHG emissions (Chinese ETS expansion to industry added 3bn tCO2e; termination of the Canadian federal fuel charge reduced coverage)
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Christopher Leisinger
New projections put ETS2 prices at 100-150€ by 2030 - much less than earlier indicated. Robust fleet standards are likely the most effective safeguard against ETS2 price spikes. Weakening them poses serious risk to ETS2 political survival.
6 months ago
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Christopher Leisinger
Felix Schenuit
6 months ago
Neue SWP-Publikation zur Rolle internationaler Zertifikate in der EU-Klimapolitik. Die EU steht vor der entscheidenden Frage, wie ihr neues Emissionsminderungsziel für 2040 aussehen soll - und welche Rolle Art. 6 Zertifikate dabei spielen können und sollen.
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
/1
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Diese Forderung des VDA verheißt nichts Gutes für das Preisniveau im ETS2. Immerhin sind die Flottengrenzwerte wohl der wichtigste „Backstop“ gegen sozial unverträgliche CO2-Preise im Verkehr.
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6 months ago
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Finding a landing zone for 2040 is incredibly tough for Hoekstra, squeezed between climate advisers rejecting int'l credits and EU capitals demanding them. Taking int'l credits off the table is nearly impossible - key now is to find a policy that balances integrity concerns with political pressure.
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6 months ago
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EU capitals are calling for flexibility to meet climate goals. Today, the ESABCC reaffirms its guidance as a benchmark for the 2040 debate. The target must be >90% net & domestic to ensure credibility. Int'l credits aren't a shortcut - flexibility should come from scaling CDR with solid governance.
add a skeleton here at some point
6 months ago
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