No, the people running the war think it’s about asserting far right, Christian Nationalist dominance across the hemisphere The oil is a sop to the old man to make him pay attention

this basic principal is raining down hard on us. it's a classic small-c conservative one about comparisons, imagination and practical counter-factual proximities. sure X is far from perfect, but what actually is the most likely substitute? cf, "liberal international order," eg USAID.

It’s sobering to look back on the run-up to the Iraq war—a period of unceasing chattering-class debate, elaborate official lies, media complicity, unavailing global protest, in the end a giant stitch-up—and have it seem like some sort of paradise of public deliberation compared to these gangsters.

Their messaging is so fucking incoherent. Maduro was an illegitimate leader who lost in 2024, which is why we're replacing him with his VP instead of the person who won in 2024. We did this to stop fentanyl, which is why he's indicted for cocaine. We're also occupying Venezuela via Zoom call.

5. MTG is mad about the operation. 6. Thomas Massie is too. 7. A new SDNY superseding indictment gives the administration a fig leaf for pulling Maduro's wife, Cilia Flores, out of the country.

Several points from day one of the U.S. supposedly running Venezuela.

"Diogenes with His Lantern Looking for an Honest Man," a painting by 17th-century Flemish artist Pieter van Mol

wow! bound to be fascinating.

Good time to repost this www.bellingcat.com/resources/20...

@edwardluce.bsky.social on track here. But important to stress that the absence of legal rules does not mean that there isnt a clear logic. See @segoddard.bsky.social and my work on neo-royalists order. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

"Trump’s new world order is now very much a reality. It has no obvious rules, no real allies, celebrates the jungle and is almost always about money. There is a lot of wealth under Venezuela’s soil. Trump is now committed to extracting it." My column. Free to read. as.ft.com/r/08b22b7a-4...

News: Gang of Eight in Congress were only notified about Trump's Venezuela operation after it began, source familiar tells me. That means the heads of the Intelligence Committees in Senate and House were *not* consulted. Just crazy.

We're looking forward to attending the @aas.org meeting in Phoenix, tomorrow through January 8th! Stop by booth 104 to browse through our latest selection of physics and astronomy books. Plus, enjoy 30% off (in the US & Canada) through 1/31 with code EXH30. We hope to see you there! #AAS247

"Is anyone going to just stop for a second and be honest? This is insane. What the hell are we doing?" - @sethmoulton.bsky.social on the Venezuela operation

JFC.

John Mueller has found that public belief in the justification for war outweighs number of casualties & shaping public opinion. Outside the GOP base, who believes that ***all this** is justified.

Statement from Cato VP Clark Neily: Courts probably won't rule against the rendition. Yet Trump has chosen to bypass the constitutional provisions designed to cabin the president's powers in using force against other countries. And an indictment does not supply him with those powers.

I’m trying to keep up a thread of Venezuela reactions from Democratic US Senators and select other major Dem figures (including Jeffries); pls peruse, share, and point me to any I’ve missed thx

Increasing wafts of neo-royalism. This is not about spheres of influence but extraction for insider elite cliques. Pay attention to mineral and oil resources. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

This is a good statement -- bc it gets you where you need to be wrt the OTHER constitutional issues (not least bc THIS SCOTUS would not rule against Trump but Gorsuch IS on recent record that Congress can't hand off its war-declaring power to POTUS.

Nobody thus far has touched Trump's occupation statement. Guessing nobody will. Rubio says Maduro "acted like a wild man." Maybe look behind you?

“We’re not afraid of boots on the ground if we have to have” them, Trump says. Congress?

Unreal.

Thinking of this exchange from the tariff case argument. www.supremecourt.gov/oral_argumen...

it’s going to be interesting to see the “war time” “nat sec” exigencies about speech limitations rolled out

Mark Kelly puts out a statement saying "The President of the United States just overthrew a foreign ruler and explained to the American people that this is about taking control of the oil reserves of a foreign nation." This is probably the strongest statement alongside Gallego's I've read.

Things I can't stop thinking about (not most impt but still), a running list: this is the pet project of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the nation's top diplomat, also the NSA, Acting National Archivist, and Acting head of now-dead USAID, which would be useful in a post-Maduro scenario. 1/

this will undoubted polarize somewhat as GOP identifiers show increased support, but support is starting from a low enough place in general to where the administration's actions are unlikely to be popular in any broad sense

the panama (or even grenada) precedents are important factors. esp institutionally. also iraq, ofc. but if iraq had less lone wolf, venezeula is no panama. 30 million people.

Say look at the signature line for OLC opinion Trump is probably relying on for his VZ invasion. Happens to be the guy who was in charge when Maduro was indicted in 2020, when Rudy Giuliani's shenanigans w/Russian spies was being funded by a VZ opposition figure. www.justice.gov/file/151131/...

None of this excuses Trump, but: 1) There is an OLC opinion that authorizes this, which future AG then OLC head Bill Barr signed in 1989 to authorize the very similar Panama invasion. 2) There is an indictment. It was unsealed under Barr in 2020. 3) Indictment is real. Former top aide pled in June

"But Wiles conceded that attacking targets on Venezuela’s mainland would force Trump to get congressional approval. 'If he were to authorize some activity on land, then it’s war, then [we’d need] Congress.'" - WH Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, Nov 2, 2025 interview www.vanityfair.com/news/story/t...

The military action in Venezuela is profound crisis--constitutional, sure, but along any conceivable dimension of a nation-state. I actually think, at this moment in time, it's better to strip the clarifications & POVs to just the bare minimum & simply cry out "unacceptable!"

Anarchy is the basis of IR because there's no world government. But for better or (often) for worse, the US has dominated world order for nearly a century. The sudden vacuum will have consequences. And Trump is wielding diminished US military and diplomatic power wildly, with no constraints. 7/

Meanwhile, as IR research since Iraq shows, regime change unleashes unpredictable forces with terrible consequences. What will this mean for the region, for migration, for Chinese interests in Latin America, and how mad is Xi? 5/ bsky.app/profile/did:...

Some thoughts on what Trump has done in Venezuela and what it might mean for US national security. Caveat: not a Latin America scholar so this is focused on US policy. Clearly huge consequences for Venezuela that others can address. First, despite the buildup, I didn't think Trump would do it. 1/

Kicking off 2026 in style — I just got my author copies of my book! After years of hard work, it surreal and exhilarating to hold my book! Thank you so much to @rblaifeder.bsky.social and @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org for making this a reality! Pre-order available: www.cambridge.org/us/universit...

THREAD. A collection of photographs of excellent trees I have met on walks. You will find the captions to each photo in the alt text.

Cover reveal. It's about how & why colonies/states controlled international & domestic migration until 1888, why in the late 19th c the feds took over, & what it was like for politically disfavored groups to live under that arrangement of power. You can't understand voluntary migration history 1/

Anyone Else Here xkcd.com/3188/

discovered a great resource which expresses my main points about the political impossibility of a successful reconstruction very well. It also adds a nice theoretical frame which overlaps my standard approaches quite a bit, descriptively elitist D theory, heavy institutionalist APD, parties!, etc.

Bob and I were among the hundreds of researchers that were supposed to conduct the 6th U.S. National Climate Assessment. Now it looks like they're gonna produce it with a few people and Grok? Communities need rigorous and accurate information about climate change. This will put communities at risk.

I think Mamdani has a massively uphill battle to be an effective mayor, but unlike most people we elect here, he seems to realize that.

Let’s see the polling on this in every single swing district … I have a hunch what that will show

Metropolis (1927) is set in 2026.

Happy New Year to the happy couple!

We're excited to be attending the Allied Social Science Associations meeting in Philadelphia tomorrow through 1/5! Stop by booth 511 to browse through our latest selection of economics books, plus enjoy 30% off (in the US & Canada) through 1/31/26 with code EXH30. We hope to see you there! #ASSA2026

Mamdani: "I cannot blame anyone who has come to question the role of government, whose faith in democracy has been eroded by decades of apathy. We will restore that trust by walking a different path ... "

Virgin and Child flanked by Archangels by a follower of Fre Seyon (Ethiopian, late 15th century).