Been reading Agatha Christie novels as a way to avoid doomscrolling. Yay for public domain ebooks!

so: a. the Strait of Hormuz is def actually mined b. they did ZERO planning for this c. they're freaking out now that it's leaked to the press and trying to ensure us that 'no it's not'

The trailer for EVERYONE IS LYING TO YOU FOR MONEY. In select theaters starting April 17th 🍿🤑🤣

The mining is not extensive yet, with a few dozen having been laid in recent days, the sources said. But Iran still retains upward of 80% to 90% of its small boats and mine layers, one of the sources said, so its forces could feasibly lay hundreds of mines in the waterway.-CNN

“Look, it’s not quite clear what’s happening, but there is at least some possibility that there are currently mines in the Strait of Hormuz” seems like exactly the sort of thing that’s going to make insurance companies chill out

Here we go

This looks like it could be a really handy tool. www.imf.org/en/publicati...

Ah yes, Vladimir Putin, a famously trustworthy figure...

Q: You said the war is 'very complete.' But your defense secretary says 'this is just the beginning.' So which is it? TRUMP: You could say both

If Israel keeps the war going, Hormuz will remain closed, and the longer that goes on, the more likely the US will be sucked into extreme measures to reopen the strait, which, from the Israeli point of view, is pretty much the optimal outcome, right? Iran bogged down in war, mostly with someone else

Kolanovic.

ISLAMIC REVOLUTIONARY GUARD CORPS: ANY ARAB OR EUROPEAN COUNTRY THAT EXPELS THE AMBASSADORS OF ISRAEL AND THE UNITED STATES FROM ITS TERRITORY WILL, STARTING TOMORROW, HAVE FULL AUTHORITY AND FREEDOM TO PASS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ

Here's a draft manuscript of the Magic: The Gathering roleplaying game from 1996, and I've giving it away as a fundraiser for Planned Parenthood, with permission from the authors. Not sure how much to ask for. Vanishingly rare. $1,872 raised so far. #mtg #ttrpg

This is a very bad plan for the captains but it also seems like a pretty bad plan for everyone else, unless you want your narrow, critical seaway in the middle of a war zone blocked by a burning hulk the size of a skycraper

If I understand correctly, the thing propping up the global economy is Wall Street’s collective belief that a man whose father, wife, and daughter we killed would not want to do anything that would impact our 401ks to us and will make a deal so Mr. Trump can have a good midterm.

UPDATE 009-JMIC-ADVISORY NOTE www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmt...

MSC ANNOUNCES A MANDATORY SURCHARGE OF $800 PER CONTAINER TO COVER EXTRA OPERATIONAL AND LOGISTICAL COSTS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING AND ARRANGING ALTERNATIVE SOLUTIONS. THE SURCHARGE WILL APPLY TO ALL AFFECTED SHIPMENTS.

I love Econ-positng. Dan Habsmith of Guttermeyer Associates posts the most confusing chart you've ever seen and says "Quite surprising VARG numbers, SPLG index showing movement" and you get the context by one of his mutuals quoting it with "Buy a fucking gun and head for the hills. Right now."

Never forget that Goldman Sachs assumed this would all be over and oil flowing again by Monday bsky.app/profile/stea...

I have a limit order to sell an oil futures contract at $119.33 and at this rate we may get there before I go to sleep tonight

Nikkei Index Drops 6% in Japan Trading

It's becoming increasingly obvious why no US president prior to Trump II ever gave Netanyahu the big war with Iran he's been demanding since 2002.

A long train of thought as I drove home from Costco that began with fertilizer shortages ended with me wondering if anyone still sells cap guns or the rolls of paper caps to go in them

Whoops. It's like we're not really in control of things.

This is incredibly on point. Spot oil prices grab the news, but it’s the impact we’re about to witness to petrochemical and derivative production that should really scare the shit out of folks. It’s the sort of shock that could ripple through our global industrial economy for many months.

as someone who does marine insurance I would point to the large gulf between “the USN forcing the strait” and “goods transiting the strait”

Responding to high oil prices by shorting futures instead of opening the SPR is exactly the sort of galaxy brain macro dipshittery only Scott Bessent would think of, I’m looking forward to them getting a hundred billion dollar margin call and sending crude to $500

Does anyone have a list for this? If not i might try and make one. There is some good ones on storage and ports

A friend's 27 year old daughter, Violet, is missing during a mental health crisis. She has been seen in the Ballard area. Seattle people, PLEASE share this URL and keep an eye out! findviolet.com

First you need to break the Iranian military's ability to contest the Strait of Hormuz. Then you need to demonstrate this to the satisfaction of crews and insurers. Then the oil producers need to turn the oil spigots back on. There's a LOT of delay in getting oil prices back to normal here.

China’s government has told the country’s largest oil refiners to suspend exports of diesel and gasoline as an escalating conflict in the Persian Gulf disrupts the arrival of crude from one of the world’s largest producing regions

Current oil positioning “has a curious twist: .. WTI is net short, according to CFTC data .. “.. as the oil shock reverberates, WTI may be subject to a significant short squeeze, likely lifting the benchmark above $100/barrel as well.” - FedWatch

“.. It’s really going for the jugular, and in a major way. .. These desalination plants, even more than the energy infrastructure of the Gulf monarchies, are their Achilles’ heel.” @wsj.com www.wsj.com/world/middle...

“.. Unless the situation improves quickly I expect we’ll reach triple-digit Brent prices early next week.” @financialtimes.com www.ft.com/content/56a0...

It is absolutely insane that the US appears to have targeted desalination plants first – putting them onto the board. Iran seems to have already retaliated against one in Bahrain. This is one of the most obvious ways this could spiral.

The unbearable amount of dread people who pay close attention to the news are feeling in early March 2026 is remarkably similar to how it felt in early March 2020.

The Miami Herald reports that an inmate told the FBI he heard prison guards discussing the fact that they killed Epstein and were going to cover it up the morning he died. The female guard below received thousands of dollars of payments in the months before Epstein died.

Leaking petroleum from the recently struck Shahran oil depot exploded in the storm drains along Tehran’s Shahran Boulevard.

Iran has updated its target bank following overnight U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iranian infrastructure saying Tehran will no longer limit itself to military targets and may also target key U.S. assets and interests across the region.-Fars News

CNN’s Frederik Pleitgen says black, oil-contaminated rain is falling over Tehran after strikes on oil facilities by U.S./Israeli airstrikes.

Who will be the first to say we’ve been at war with Iran since Thermopylae?

Oh my god: this is *daytime* in Tehran.

update from different friend: fuck

temperature check: i asked a friend of mine in the oil industry what she (GASP A GIRL? IN OIL??) thinks the market is gonna look like by the end of the month and she just sent me this in response with no other text. [I have no idea if she is serious]

It's looking like Friday was still a buying opportunity for oil futures, despite how they had already jumped. There's this crazy thing when a price of something rockets to the moon, where you keep having one moment after another where it looks like a price is crazy and unsustainable.

Hey, remember how I said that my third friend in the oil industry didn’t respond? Yeah they got back to me. It’s not looking good, team

My brother, we had to explain a 1/3 pound burger was bigger than a quarter pound burger and still failed

Since receiving presidential pardons, dozens of former Capitol rioters have gotten into more legal trouble. In Florida, Andrew Paul Johnson was sentenced to life in prison for child sex abuse.

Christ almighty

there's so much bad in the world but there's also people who lift up and carry an elderly bat around every day so he can pretend he's flying again, and that's the part of the world I think is worth fighting for