In this mathematical modeling study, Alvaro Schwalb and colleagues estimate the global burden of viable Mycobacterium tuberculosis—that which can cause disease and be transmitted—to help guide disease prevention efforts 🧪 #tuberculosis #MedSky plos.io/4aqzIQV

Our new paper on strategies for implementing a potential new #TB #vaccine in South Africa is now published in @plosglobalpublichealth.org! doi.org/10.1371/jour...

Our Editor’s Choice commentary in @cidjournal.bsky.social finds that reported TB symptoms are an inadequate classifier of disease state, as they are heavily influenced by context and substantial interviewer variability, and may have alternative causes. Read more here👇🏻 doi.org/10.1093/cid/...

@lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social is offering multiple PhD opportunities through MRC LID, deadline 14 Jan. More details: mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/applicants/ Projects include #1 TB & screening #2 TB & climate change #3 TB & vaccines #4 TB & influenza #5 TB & prevention @cmmid-lshtm.bsky.social @lshtm.bsky.social

Another successful "Intro to TB Modelling" course in Copenhagen at #WLHC2025. Over 70 joined to learn about TB modelling! Followed by the now-traditional TB Modelling and Analysis Consortium social, which was also very well-attended and a lot of fun.

#5 Mathematical modelling and clinical trial simulation of TB prevention mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/2026-27-proj... with Tom Sumner, @raclark18.bsky.social & @danieljgrint.bsky.social

#4 Investigating the effect of influenza on risk of tuberculosis in South Africa mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/2026-27-proj... with Pally Khan, Nicky McCreesh & Tom Sumner

#3 How should countries deliver new TB vaccines when risk factors are considered? mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/2026-27-proj... with @raclark18.bsky.social & @richardwhite321.bsky.social

#2 Epidemiological modelling of the impact and mitigation of climate change on tuberculosis mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/2026-27-proj... with myself, @mjsaunder.bsky.social & Helen Stagg

#1 Epidemiological impact of heterogeneity in community screening for tuberculosis mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/2026-27-proj... with @kchorton.bsky.social & @reinhouben.bsky.social

Come join us for a PhD in the TB Modelling Group!

Perhaps the most important collaboration at #UnionConf2025? WHO STOP TB’s Hello Kitty met the LSHTM TB Modelling Group’s bunny mascot “Bugs” today 🐰 Shout out to @stoptb.bsky.social and @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social for making TB epidemiology both rigorous and accessible. #EndTB #WCLH2025

What’s a #UnionConf without the TB modelling course? Packed room again for a long day of intro to modelling. @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social @tb-mac.bsky.social #WCLH2025 #TBSky

Interested in #TB, equity, and modelling? @reinhouben.bsky.social and I are advertising an MRC LID studentship on heterogeneity in the coverage of community screening for TB @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social @lshtm.bsky.social. For more details, visit mrc-lid.lshtm.ac.uk/2026-27-proj...

Our framework that informed the @who.int TB & climate change policy brief out now in @lancetrespirmed.bsky.social, exploring the intersections and implications of climate change for the TB epidemic. Key message? TB should be considered a climate-sensitive disease www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

“Wow, I saw in the last GTB report undernutrition is much less important for TB than we previously thought” I hear you say… Well, no. We think this is an underestimate, & as much as 28% of TB could be attributable to undernutrition – see our latest comment here: www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

When fluoroquinolone resistance status is unknown, empirical use of BPaLM (adding moxifloxacin to BPaL) is cost-effective as a replacement for BPaL even with high fluoroquinolone resistance levels! 🦠💊 doi.org/10.1371/jour...

Understanding patterns of #TB exposure and transmission is needed for targeted prevention strategies. In our latest pre-print, @petedodd24.bsky.social and I estimated the proportion of TB exposure to and transmission from sex and age groups for 177 countries. bit.ly/4nbV492

In a new preprint (NOT PEER REVIEWED) we continue to explore the challenge of overtreatment in community screening. It seems the benefits of TB treatment far outweigh the harms, especially once we accept that sputum culture is not perfect. Important food for thought. www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...

Our work on modelling population-wide screening in Viet Nam is now available in PLOS Global Public Health! tinyurl.com/3ymhuj5s

Our systematic review of rural/urban differences in #TB prevalence shows evidence of rapidly urbanising epidemics in many settings, with differences across countries and regions. Link to preprint below ⬇️

1/ It’s been 10 years (😮) since we reported that #TB prevalence was twice as high in men as in women. 📢 Our new preprint explores how sex differences have shifted with more recent national prevalence surveys and growing attention to #gender responsive TB prevention and care. bit.ly/4gqP1LH

So...what would happen to the global TB epidemic if we hypothetically "eliminated" undernutrition? In this preprint, we combined estimates from our new review (doi.org/10.1093/ije/...) with population-specific BMI distributions to find out...(doi.org/10.1101/2025...)

Nutritional status is a key determinant of TB. In this updated systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis (43 cohorts inc > 26 million people) we redefined the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and TB. doi.org/10.1093/ije/...

At a time when global resources for #TB research, development, prevention, and care are limited, which interventions should be prioritised in high burden settings? 📢 Our new pre-print compares the impact, cost, and cost-effectiveness of 9 TB interventions in 3 countries. 1/n bit.ly/3V3vXth

Community screening for #tuberculosis could extend the reach of #TB services, but evidence on its effectiveness is limited. In our latest preprint, we examine the epidemiological impact of trade-offs in diagnostic algorithm, population coverage, and duration of screening. 1/n bit.ly/3UK7pFD

Our new study examines social contact patterns in urban, peri-urban, and rural communities and their implications for #TB interventions like household contact tracing, infection prevention, and cluster RCTs. #MedSky #EpiSky #IDsky #TBSky Read more in @plosglobalpublichealth.org

Our work estimating the potential impacts of reductions in international donor funding for #TB is now out in @lancetgh.bsky.social: bit.ly/3TDl28T @raclark18.bsky.social @cfmcquaid.bsky.social @alexandra-richards.bsky.social @top-j.bsky.social @reinhouben.bsky.social @richardwhite321.bsky.social

New systematic review led by @hannahrickman.bsky.social shows annual risk of Mycobacterium #tuberculosis conversion in men and women diverges during adolescence and remains higher among men throughout adulthood. www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

In our latest personal view in @lancetrespirmed.bsky.social, we argue for the inclusion asymptomatic #tuberculosis in vaccine trial endpoints to potentially reduce the size, length, and cost of trials. doi.org/10.1016/S221... @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social @tb-lshtm.bsky.social

Happening tomorrow! Come join us!

TB & climate change: @who.int report out now, building on an analytical framework we developed to explore the intersections and implications for the TB epidemic. Key message? TB should be considered a climate-sensitive disease www.who.int/publications...

Can you believe it’s already been 25 years!? Come join us on 20 June 2025 at 4pm UK time to celebrate the 25th anniversary of the Introduction to #Infectious Disease #Modelling course delivered by @lshtm.bsky.social and @ukhsa.bsky.social! More info 👉 www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/e...

Amid all the bad news in Global Health, perhaps some good news? A first analysis on the risk of false positive diagnoses in community-screening for tuberculosis using Xpert shows our clinic-based data is likely (very) wrong and overestimates false positives by >80%: tinyurl.com/yfecute9.

Postdoc (London, UK) Position available in the world-leading tuberculosis (TB) Modelling group at LSHTM with @raclark18.bsky.social‬ @richardwhite321.bsky.social at LSHTM @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social More details: http://iddjobs.org/jobs/2314

Are you interested in #TB and have experience in #modelling infectious diseases? Come join us in the TB Modelling Group at #LSHTM! We're advertising for a 1 year Research Fellow position, with a closing date of 30 May 2025 👉 jobs.lshtm.ac.uk/vacancy.aspx...

Reductions in contributions to The Global Fund in line with current announcements by the United States, France, the United Kingdom, and Germany may lead to an additional 699,200, 63,100, 50,500, and 30,500 TB deaths, respectively. (See table for episodes of disease and other donor countries.) 4/8

#Tuberculosis prevention and care relies heavily on international donor funding in many settings. In our latest preprint, we examine the potential impact of reductions in international donor funding for #TB - by the US and by other major donor countries. 1/8 www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...

Modelling projects the devastating impacts of US funding cuts, including our estimates of #TB incidence and deaths @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social @tb-lshtm.bsky.social

New preprint led by @alexandra-richards.bsky.social & @kchorton.bsky.social from @lightontb.bsky.social Eliminating men’s excess risks for #TB & improving access to treatment to comparable rates to women could have major gains for men, women & children. www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...

New pre-print modelling impact of US funding cuts on HIV, #TB, MCH and family planning. We estimate impact of termination of US funding to NTPs via #USAID & The Global Fund may lead to 2.2 (1.5-2.9) million excess TB deaths between 2025 and 2040, reversing over a decade of progress. bit.ly/4lowp18

Our latest pre-print led by @alexandra-richards.bsky.social shows that improving #TB treatment coverage among men to the level achieved among women could reduce morbidity and mortality in men, women, and children. Further evidence of the need for gender-responsive TB prevention and care!

Climate-driven migration and displacement and their potential impact on TB in Latin America gh.bmj.com/content/10/4... @cfmcquaid.bsky.social @reinhouben.bsky.social @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social

Great to be able to finally get this work out, closing out my time with @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social

In 2024, 68 million people were internally displaced by humanitarian crises, & are at increased risk of TB, the world's biggest infectious disease killer. We urgently need estimates to identify the scale of this problem & drive our response. We provide initial numbers here gh.bmj.com/content/10/3...

@lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social @tb-lshtm.bsky.social @cmmid-lshtm.bsky.social

A year ago, I was tasked with creating a timeline for @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social and we came across this amazing example of a way to keep track of a group with a long history. We now have a record of our history going back to 2011, and I hope that this can stay alive and continuously updated as well!

Climate change is likely to exacerbate determinants which drive TB, the world’s leading infectious disease killer. Commissioned by WHO, we developed an analytical framework outlining potential causal relationships between climate change and TB: medrxiv.org/cgi/content/... @lshtm.bsky.social @who.int

Come do a PhD with @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social! We have 3 TB Modelling projects, applications due 11 March: ➡️Influenza and risk of TB ➡️Climate change on TB in migrant & displaced populations ➡️Housing & infections among the homeless More info here: www.lshtm.ac.uk/study/fees-a...

PhD opportunity @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social modelling intersection of TB (world #1 infectious killer) & climate change. Do apply to be part of a great group doing impactful work! www.lshtm.ac.uk/study/fees-a... @lshtm.bsky.social @cmmid-lshtm.bsky.social @reinhouben.bsky.social @laragosce.bsky.social