1/Partners reviewed progress, discussed upcoming work (co-creation studios, research, serious game, dissemination & others), and held a strategic foresight workshop on alternative geopolitical scenarios for the #WB and Associated Trio.

There was a Fidesz ideologue who once said, "What you call corruption is the essence of the system." Seems he was right but we're just learning by how much. The Integrity Authority estimates Orban's rule cost Hungary €160B(!) in corruption. That equals ~2/3 of 🇭🇺 GDP. www.ft.com/content/0c44...

I spoke to Milan Nic @milanninberlin.bsky.social about where things are going (but also, not going) on enlargement and how to make sense of the recent flurry of ideas on associate membership, veto rights, etc. It turned out to be a more optimistic conversation than I expected! Tune in below 👇

Great article which lays bare how it is often assumed that states such as Estonia are doomed owing to their size alone, and necessarily lack meaningful autonomy. More generally, the Narva scenario is a red herring b/c (1) it ignores the local idiosyncrasies of Narva; and…

❓Lately, many people have been speculating about what the fallen Viktor Orbán is planning to do. Many view his resignation from his parliamentary seat as the first step toward his complete disappearance, or perhaps his flight abroad. Millions of his critics are calling for blood... 🧵

This, though, +12% to 65%? That's next level (even if it's just one poll rather than an average). But I could believe it. Aside from its true believers, themselves now disoriented, Fidesz built whole electorates on patronage networks. Now that whole system has collapsed, and its incentives with it.

Moscow to suspend Kazakh oil flows through key pipeline supplying Berlin ft.trib.al/H2FDYxl

Thanks indeed to @financialtimes.com for publishing me on the anti-US turn of the European right. From moderate conservatives to nationalist radicals, it is nimbly shifting towards a politics of autonomy. The centre and left must move fast - or risk being outflanked. www.ft.com/content/cba2...

With Radev's win in Bulgaria, imo, we'll see something new at the EU level-- advocacy for pro-Ru positions not from a euroskeptic position a la Orban/AfD/RN but from an ostensibly pro-EU position: Europe should abandon Ukr and go back to cheap Ru energy to be stronger and strategically autonomous.

The US always had a streak of conciliatory attitude to the USSR, seeking to understand where they're coming from and hoping to find middle ground. Meanwhile, when I was growing up in Bulgaria in the 80s, I learned Americans are militarists who want to kill us, while the USSR wants peace. Zero nuance

👋 More and more Fidesz insiders are jumping from the sinking ship. Suddenly they blame each other, the circumstances, the party leadership, even Viktor Orbán himself. And of course they all claim they “saw it coming” long ago. 🧵

I steped briefly back into Charlemagne's robes this week (@spignal.bsky.social is on holiday) to explain why, amid all the Magyar-mania, the EU risks ignoring some important lessons it ought to take from its long Orban nightmare. www.economist.com/europe/2026/...

Gute Idee

A lot of Orbán's American fans are saying that this election proved he was never an authoritarian in the first place. This is completely wrong — and, in fact, betrays a complete misunderstanding of both Hungarian politics and modern authoritarianism. Here's why.

For years, but especially in the last few months, I have been trying hard to imagine what it will feel like seeing Orban decisively defeated. I just couldn't. And yet here we are: it is truly and well over. I have more reservations about Peter Magyar than I could say in 300 characters or a thread...

Nothing like some Monday morning pedantry to start the week

It's hard to think of a European election in the 21st century that has had more implications for the EU than the one in Hungary. Some that spring to mind are Austria in 2000, Greece in 2015, symbolically France in 2017, UK in 2019. Special mention to Romania in 2024/2025. Any other takers?

There is an obviously Fidesz designed table tennis table here in Szár - it’s sloped against the players

‼️🇭🇺🇪🇺 Here is a potted timeline thread marking some of the key milestones that built Prime Minister Viktor Orban's illiberal democracy in Hungary over his 16 years in power. His tenure looks likely to end tomorrow. The table stakes for Hungary and Europe could not be higher 1/

Orbán took power in April 2010. We organized our first protests against him that December. I was 22, in undergrad, lucky to be in a community of students ready to resist. Looking back, no wonder this moment feels so heavy. 🧵

🇭🇺🗳️📺I've spent a week watching Hungarian TV/YT, or at least what of it was subtitled in a remotely familiar language. I've tried to understand the core messaging of the key parties, to get a grip on the emotions, and to find out exactly who Péter Magyar is. Three takeaways: 1/

Let's look at a claim from the 2022 Hungary elections, that independent pollsters got it all wrong. It's not true. Everyone predicted a Fidesz win, with the exception of one pollster. But most were significantly off re Fidesz's lead, which ended up being >16pp en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion...

Can't say that I know nearly enough about Hungarian domestic politics. But I'm pretty sure that if an American Vice-President would be dispatched to Austria in a last minute effort to influence Austrian voters this would completely and utterly backfire

I wasn't sure how much more I could hear about the saga of Karin Kneissl, but ended up binge-listening to this exceptional piece of reportage. A well-known tale where the Datum team nonetheless managed to deliver fresh and shocking insights. Highly recommended!

How Viktor Orbán laid traps to stop his successor from running Hungary

Two of the latest polls, from previously quite accurate pollsters, show a Tisza lead of ~20pp in Hungary. But can the opposition really win? Why is Orban on the backfoot? And what happens after April 12? 🇭🇺Hungary elections thread 🧵

T-14 days until the Hungarian election. 🇭🇺🗳️ In this thread, I discuss Magyar's prospects of success in restoring (liberal) democracy (if he wins) and will tell you he's not the saviour you might think he is (but that he’s still good enough for now). 🧵 1/

All the cool kids are now talking about Hungary ahead of the election in two weeks but we’ve been doing that for ages (3 months)! This week we had László Andor on the podcast to talk about Orbán and the EU and a bit on the economic conditions that allowed his rise and now potentially his fall.

Our latest on the Orban System: how a dozen or so businessmen closely tied to the Hungarian premier hit gold from state contracts when he took over www.ft.com/content/70c2...

We can’t get to April 12 fast enough ⏳ brettoninthewoods.substack.com/p/can-hungar...

Lots of great coverage and analysis of the Hungarian election at the moment, which is too close to call despite the seemingly clear lead of Peter Magyar's Tisza party. Yet, even if polling averages hold, the distorting features of the electoral system could lead to an under-appreciated scenario. 1/3

On one hand, Robert Golob has already signaled that he is willing to build a wide coalition which. On the other , Janez Janša is looking to actively undermine the legitimacy of the vote. Florida 2000, Stop The Steal and/or January 6, anyone? #slovenia #election #results

Große Empfehlung zum Start des neuen Podcasts von @datum.at zur Radikalisierung von 🇦🇹 Ex-Außenministerin Karin Kneissl, der ab sofort online ist! In den ersten zwei Folgen geht es u.a. um Putins Propagandanetzwerk, dem Kneissl heute angehört. #kniefall podcasts.apple.com/at/podcast/k...

1/ Did you know that the 🇺🇸, 🇪🇺, & 🇷🇺 together account for nearly 90% of all mentions in social media discussions in 🇲🇰? This is one of the findings from sentiment analysis report on how citizens of the WB and EaP perceive major actors. 🔗 bit.ly/4aF06rx More interesting insights from our 🇲🇰 factsheet 👇

As part of the @geopower-eu.bsky.social project, an EU Horizon consortium in which VE Insight is involved, partners are creating indices to capture geopolitical vulnerabilities of the 9 EU candidate states. The most recent is the Exposure Risk Index: geo-power.eu/research-out... 1/4

Kremlin backs covert campaign to keep Orbán in power ft.trib.al/daSmFU9

🇮🇹⚖The Italian government seeks to hold a referendum on reforming the judiciary. What is at stake? Proponents say it's a technical reform that will address persistent issues with the organisation of Italian judges and prosecutors. Detractors point to a power grab. What's the deal here? 1/

Now that everyone is paying attention to Hungary thanks to Orbán’s threats to EU Ukraine policy, an obviously cynical campaign ploy, it’s another good moment to remind everyone we’ve been talking about the election and scenarios such as these for the last two months. This is our latest episode:

I've been working on this for ages in various countries: the story of the intelligence buildup to Putin's 2022 invasion. How did the US and Britain find out so much, and why were Europe and Ukraine sceptical. It's a long one: www.theguardian.com/world/ng-int...

🇵🇱⚖️President Nawrocki vetoes the law reforming the National Council of Judiciary, dispelling any hopes the Polish government had of reforming the rule of law through new legislation. Major, but expected, defeat for the new MoJ Waldemark Żurek and his plans. 1/

Hungary’s opposition leader Péter Magyar says allies of PM Viktor Orbán are preparing a “Russian-style” sex-tape smear campaign ahead of April’s election. He says his ex-girlfriend set a honey trap in 2024 & Orbán’s camp plans to release the footage soon

🌍 With two months until Hungary's next parliamentary election, time to take a look at what the foreign policy offer of Tisza, the main opposition party leading the polls ahead of Fidesz, would mean for the EU. Read my piece published by the New Politics Project of @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/article/tisz...

🇪🇺🇪🇺 New starterpack featuring researchers and analysts working in or thinking about Europe.. and active on Bluesky @rikefranke.bsky.social @fromtga.bsky.social @anneapplebaum.bsky.social @popovaprof.bsky.social @jkaarsbo.bsky.social @catherinedevries.bsky.social Follow here ⬇️ go.bsky.app/C2JMPGR

Enjoyed discussing the European implications of the Hungarian election with @zecsaky.bsky.social and her explaining to me why in several cases I don't quite get it twentyfourtwo.substack.com/p/trump-hasn...

My understanding is that the Commission as well as key capitals are assuming that Orban will be gone in April. If true, that is naive. Notwithstanding the capture of the state apparatus by Fidesz, the mixed, disproportional, quasi-rigged electoral system may produce wildly unpredictable results. 1/3

🇸🇰🇪🇺⚖️It took a while, but the Commission is finally, belatedly, getting tough on Fico's softcore rule of law crisis. While not as severe as in 🇭🇺🇵🇱, the slowly crawling dismantling of checks and balances by the Slovak government is finally getting the attention it deserves. 1/

excellent summary of where we are now - BUT analysis by Political Capital shows that Orban could win back his 2/3rds constitutional majority with 45% of the vote while Magyar would have to win 55% of the vote to get a simple majority. See my analysis here www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/how...

maybe just to put this in context this is someone whose own psychological state is regularly questioned on the domestic scene (post-assassination attempt)

Feels like something cracked today in the transatlantic alliance. Europeans have been swallowing their pride, bitting their tongues, and bending the knee. That strategy may have bought them time but it has now clearly failed. It also had a major cost - it has made the WH think Europe will cave. 1/

The judiciary in Romania never "worked" in truth. Under the Kovesi era the anti-corruption agency (DNA) and the prosecutors took advantage of a highly favourable opportunity following the 2012 political divisions that paralysed the politic