🇮🇹⚖The Italian government seeks to hold a referendum on reforming the judiciary. What is at stake? Proponents say it's a technical reform that will address persistent issues with the organisation of Italian judges and prosecutors. Detractors point to a power grab. What's the deal here? 1/

Now that everyone is paying attention to Hungary thanks to Orbán’s threats to EU Ukraine policy, an obviously cynical campaign ploy, it’s another good moment to remind everyone we’ve been talking about the election and scenarios such as these for the last two months. This is our latest episode:

I've been working on this for ages in various countries: the story of the intelligence buildup to Putin's 2022 invasion. How did the US and Britain find out so much, and why were Europe and Ukraine sceptical. It's a long one: www.theguardian.com/world/ng-int...

🇵🇱⚖️President Nawrocki vetoes the law reforming the National Council of Judiciary, dispelling any hopes the Polish government had of reforming the rule of law through new legislation. Major, but expected, defeat for the new MoJ Waldemark Żurek and his plans. 1/

Hungary’s opposition leader Péter Magyar says allies of PM Viktor Orbán are preparing a “Russian-style” sex-tape smear campaign ahead of April’s election. He says his ex-girlfriend set a honey trap in 2024 & Orbán’s camp plans to release the footage soon

🌍 With two months until Hungary's next parliamentary election, time to take a look at what the foreign policy offer of Tisza, the main opposition party leading the polls ahead of Fidesz, would mean for the EU. Read my piece published by the New Politics Project of @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/article/tisz...

🇪🇺🇪🇺 New starterpack featuring researchers and analysts working in or thinking about Europe.. and active on Bluesky @rikefranke.bsky.social @fromtga.bsky.social @anneapplebaum.bsky.social @popovaprof.bsky.social @jkaarsbo.bsky.social @catherinedevries.bsky.social Follow here ⬇️ go.bsky.app/C2JMPGR

Enjoyed discussing the European implications of the Hungarian election with @zecsaky.bsky.social and her explaining to me why in several cases I don't quite get it twentyfourtwo.substack.com/p/trump-hasn...

My understanding is that the Commission as well as key capitals are assuming that Orban will be gone in April. If true, that is naive. Notwithstanding the capture of the state apparatus by Fidesz, the mixed, disproportional, quasi-rigged electoral system may produce wildly unpredictable results. 1/3

🇸🇰🇪🇺⚖️It took a while, but the Commission is finally, belatedly, getting tough on Fico's softcore rule of law crisis. While not as severe as in 🇭🇺🇵🇱, the slowly crawling dismantling of checks and balances by the Slovak government is finally getting the attention it deserves. 1/

excellent summary of where we are now - BUT analysis by Political Capital shows that Orban could win back his 2/3rds constitutional majority with 45% of the vote while Magyar would have to win 55% of the vote to get a simple majority. See my analysis here www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/how...

maybe just to put this in context this is someone whose own psychological state is regularly questioned on the domestic scene (post-assassination attempt)

Feels like something cracked today in the transatlantic alliance. Europeans have been swallowing their pride, bitting their tongues, and bending the knee. That strategy may have bought them time but it has now clearly failed. It also had a major cost - it has made the WH think Europe will cave. 1/

The judiciary in Romania never "worked" in truth. Under the Kovesi era the anti-corruption agency (DNA) and the prosecutors took advantage of a highly favourable opportunity following the 2012 political divisions that paralysed the politic

Been thinking a lot about the European response to the new US National Security Strategy (followed up by Trump's interview). Europeans panicked after J.D.'s Munich speech and Zelenskyy's humiliation in the White House but then got complacent when US policy seemed to resume its usual course.

Now that Babis is confirmed as prime minister, posting what I wrote earlier on what to expect in Czechia and the EU. Bottom line on the latter: a "rump" Visegrad is a possibility but its impact will heavily depend on the Hungarian elections www.cer.eu/insights/cer...

Some thoughts, in a hopefully more coherent form than my 300-character Bluesky posts hungarianobserver.substack.com/p/why-are-pe...

💥🇭🇺 For Hungary watchers: a detailed inside look at Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party's recent internal crisis — how they underestimated opposition leader Péter Magyar and how all the traps they set for him backfired. Orbán's spring offensive against Magyar even caused tensions within the government.

After a democracy turns illiberal, can it return to democracy again? Here are the reasons why democracy after illiberalism is hard to maintain.

Without economic strength, Europe is a geopolitical dwarf. So it might a good idea to listen to Robert Fico, without embracing his ideas on climate and energy policy, I argue today in "Morning Post Europe". Sign up, if you haven't yet⬇️ europemorningpost.substack.com?utm_campaign...

Here is something on Czechia's elections and the implications for the EU from me:

Opposition to the move from capitals that don’t want to reward the oligarch or endorse Russian court rulings could stymie efforts to pass the EU’s next package of sanctions against Moscow Scoop with @lauramdubois.ft.com & @mjruehl.bsky.social on.ft.com/4o7M3i9

If Orban takes the nuclear option as regards to dealing with Peter Magyar, this is the most likely scenario. Using past precedent in other member states (Romania, in this instance) as political cover and decrying objections from Brussels as double standards.

Since 2010, when Viktor Orbán returned to power, he and Fidesz have been steadily checking off the boxes for building a mafia state in Hungary. At some point, Orbán seems to have decided never to leave power again. 1/11

Hard to disagree with any of this. The outcome of the presidential election was a catastrophe for Tusk and his coalition. As things stand, Poland is a ticking time bomb for Europe.

After years of hard work and months of even harder waiting, it’s an incredible feeling to announce that CENTRAL EUROPE is officially out! 🥳 Go and pick up a copy at any good bookshop!

Still difficult, even in 2025, to get anywhere in Austria without Bruno Kreisky. *Bruno Kreisky's Foreign Policy. A Reassessment.* New from Berghahn. We have a good feeling about this book. www.berghahnbooks.com/title/Bischo...

The U.S. "relies" on Austria for 29% of its imported handguns. As a percentage of total such imports, it is the largest export item of Austria to the U.S. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

"Austria has one of the most heavily armed civilian populations in Europe, with an estimated 30 firearms per 100 persons, according to the Small Arms Survey, an independent research project", schreibt Reuters. Krass, war mir nicht bewusst.

🇵🇱⚖️🗳️ The rule of law repair process in Poland just got incredibly more difficult. I expect President Nawrocki to be even less cooperative than Duda, as Nawrocki will work hard for a PiS parliamentary election victory. Tough times ahead. 1/

While Russia is suffering horrendous casualties in Ukraine and failing by most metrics, European states perceive it as an existential threat—and are frantically preparing for an attack. In my new piece for @foreignpolicy.com, I make sense of this paradox. 1/5 foreignpolicy.com?p=1195629&pr...

A victory by Simion in the Romanian presidential runoff is likely. On paper, Nicusor Dan just doesn't have the numbers as PSD inclined voters in rural areas who backed the GroKo candidate Crin Antonescu or Victor Ponta just won't mobilise for him. PSD is split on the issue. And yet.. 1/3

💥📈 In just six months, Hungarian opposition leader Péter Magyar’s TISZA party has surged to a 14-point lead over Viktor Orbán’s ruling Fidesz, per the reliable 21 Research Center pollster—putting TISZA on the brink of a two-thirds majority in parliament. 🗳️🇭🇺 Next election is in April 2026.

Austria’s security services (DSN) have uncovered a Russian disinformation operation, coordinated through a Bulgarian intermediary. The campaign aimed to discredit Ukraine in German-speaking countries by deploying fake pro-Ukraine content embedded with extremist cues to manipulate perception. 1/6

The Israeli entrepreneur Shalev Hulio gained notoriety for designing Pegasus, the spyware used by governments to hack journalists and dissidents. Today, he is selling a new AI cyber security tool to European states and corporations. His secret asset? Austria’s former leader Sebastian Kurz. [Thread]

💥🇺🇸 Viktor Orbán’s bromance with Trump seems to be fading—a new short doc explores why. For example, experts like ex-Trump advisor Ken Weinstein say Orbán’s cozying up to China and its car industry clashes with Trump’s key foreign policy goals. 🎥 Full doc by DW: www.youtube.com/watch?v=RGQ9...

My colleague Benedetta Locatelli and I provided some insights on behalf of VE Insight for SeeNews on the way in which likely policy changes by the Trump administration might impact the Western Balkans: seenews.com/news/from-st...

Wenn die SPÖ schon nicht mit der SPÖ kann, wie soll sie dann mit der ÖVP und den Neos können? diesubstanz.at/parteien/sch...

*🇦🇹 MEANWHILE, IN AUSTRIA.. 🇦🇹* And it’s (sort of) final! The People’s Party (ÖVP), Social Democrats (SPÖ) and NEOS have formed a centrist coalition government, ending a rollercoaster of three rounds of negotiations that lasted 151 days – the longest period in Austria’s post-war history. 1/

A timely post on the almost-there new govt in Austria... "The NEOS, in securing the foreign ministry, will add a stronger Euroatlanticist accent to foreign policy. Further integration into EU defence programmes is envisaged."

*🇦🇹 MEANWHILE, IN AUSTRIA.. 🇦🇹* And it’s (sort of) final! The People’s Party (ÖVP), Social Democrats (SPÖ) and NEOS have formed a centrist coalition government, ending a rollercoaster of three rounds of negotiations that lasted 151 days – the longest period in Austria’s post-war history. 1/

OK. Wow.

Dodgy analysis about Die Linke from more liberal and centre-right leaning commentators right now ignores how the party's unwillingness to vote with the AfD opens up space for compromises on the debt brake and even a Linke abstention on special funds for European defence

In the run up for today's elections in Germany, I wrote this article for @foreignpolicy.com exploring how Friedrich Merz's early political career in the 1980s and 1990s still shapes his view of the world today foreignpolicy.com/2025/02/20/g...

A blog with our collective assessment of European defense and democracy in the wake of Trump's confrontation with both - and the links to where the EU has the greatest potential leverage: the Western Balkans. www.democratizationpolicy.org/european-def...

The latest from us on the recent tectonic shifts and their implications. 👇

⚡️DAS VOLK BIN ICH⚡️ Diese eine Minute aus #Kickl s Rede ist unglaublich entlarvend: ▶️ Ich hätte Kanzler werden können - ich hätte nur "die WählerInnen" verraten müssen. ▶️ Ich als Volkskanzler verkörpere, was "das Volk" will. Ich bin sein "Werkzeug". Damit wird jede Verhandlung unmöglich. 1/2

Höbelt (!) über Kickl. www.diepresse.com/19366662/fpo...