Interested in international security and development programming? @robertamaggi.bsky.social and I we have prepared an online course for the European Governance Lab on 🌍 SECURITY IN FRAGMENTED STATES: UNDERSTANDING AND RESPONDING TO HYBRID SECURITY CHALLENGES eugovlab.com/courses/secu...

This weeks Maghrebi magazine is out now featuring my piece on Libya - Eu relations with analysis from @robertamaggi.bsky.social - maghrebi.org?sdm_process_...

Grateful to @eddiemonkman.bsky.social for including my thoughts in his latest article on escalation and territorial control in #Sudan and at its border with #Libya. I focus on providing geopolitical nuance & historical contextualisation of current events & their impact on both countries' stability.

أود أن أعبر عن خالص امتناني و جزيل الشكر والتقدير لصحيفة الوسط على مشاركتها لمقالي الذي كتبته مع الدكتور كريم مزران لصالح مركز @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social ولمن فاته الاطلاع على النسخة العربية، يمكنكم قراءتها عبر هذا الرابط 👈🏽 alwasat.ly/news/libya/4...

#Russia is upgrading its military footprint in #Libya - “The entity shift from Wagner to Africa Corps arguably makes this an opportunistic power grab, more so than projection” according to @robertamaggi.bsky.social interviewed by F. S. Schiavi www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

New @newlinesmag.bsky.social piece with @emadbadi.bsky.social, in which we try to make sense of a dramatic set of events in Tripoli over the past two weeks and what they mean for Libya's political stalemate. newlinesmag.com/argument/a-p...

Delighted to share the page with the phenomenal Karim Mezran for @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social on current events in #Libya. We 🔎 on what clashes in Tripoli mean for peace prospects & the safety of 🇱🇾 citizens, & what the intl diplomatic community can do to prevent further violence. 👉 shorturl.at/wMRQe

The assassination of Abdul Ghani al-Kikli and clashes in Tripoli that followed shattered illusions of stability in #Libya. Karim Mezran & @robertamaggi.bsky.social outline what peace enforcement might look like in Libya’s current politico-security landscape. www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menaso...

My latest for @mecouncil.bsky.social unpacks how a bid to rein in militias in #Tripoli unraveled into a war of militias, & what is now at stake. International policy must now pivot from managing dysfunction to enabling transition before #Libya's history repeats itself.

HASSAN: What is habeas corpus? NOEM: Habeas corpus is a constitutional right that the president has to be able to remove people from this country HASSAN: That's incorrect

Reports that the #US is seeking to send migrants to #Libya have raised big concerns on the risks of #HR violations and abuse. In my new #GITOC brief, I detail those, & how #deportations could fuel Libya’s criminal economies and worsen political instability. globalinitiative.net/analysis/how...

Today's perfect example of this: Libya's parliament unironically meets to decide a new government claiming they're: Supporting protestors, and holding PM Dbeiba accountable for not handling militias with due process. This will not end well

For those following the latest developments in #Libya's #Tripoli, this analysis outlines what unfolded overnight, covering key military dynamics. It closes with a call for more hands-on empowered mediation to prevent further bloodshed & build on the tenuous ceasefires. emadbadi.com/the-unraveli...

BREAKING: The Trump administration is working on a plan to permanently relocate up to 1 million Palestinians from the Gaza Strip to Libya, five people with knowledge of the effort told NBC News.

Big demonstrations in Tripoli tonight for the government to fall, several ministers have resigned, protesters now reaching the prime minister's office...unfortunately there's no way around the other site to follow these events...

There is a power struggle ongoing right now in Libya amongst a despised, illegitimate, disconnected elite trying to play off mass frustration and desperation for change The longer it goes without the UN taking control of the mediation space, the worse it'll get

Tripoli may be on the cusp of being the theater for warfare unlike anything seen since 2011 - an urban battlefield marked by drone strikes, street-to-street clashes, & guerilla warfare. The vast majority of casualties in this context will unfortunately be innocent civilians.

As reshuffling decrees are announced by the GNU/PM, it's important to remember that reform is more than mere de jure changes in chains of command. A couple trends to watch in the coming days: dynamics around personnel (re)assignment within MoI and MoD, & the politics of power in institutions #Libya

Things in Libya are heating up as Ghneiwa, probably the most successful milita leader of Tripoli's cartel, was assassinated at a meeting advertised as calming recent tensions. Now Dbeiba aligned forces will try and claim his territory as the MoI warns residents to stay home Big night ahead

As POTUS heads to Saudi, the UAE, and Qatar next week for the first major foreign trip of his second term, lifting Syria sanctions should be at the top of his agenda -- doing so is the only way to position the Syrian people to be able to hold their govt accountable to deliver a Syria for all.

Informative on the Gaza foundation scheme, in equal parts illegal and incompetent. • UAE nixed funding plea • Plan would only feed 60% of Gaza, but Israel thinks emigration can solve that • USA pressures UN to join, threatens fund cuts @jacobmagid.bsky.social www.timesofisrael.com/uae-rejects-...

This obviously requires verification, but here's a possible explanation for why greedy actors in Tripoli might be tempted to agree to taking the Trump admin's deportees even at the risk of being swept from power by the backlash this could cause. www.middleeasteye.net/news/libya-a...

The Trump administration is reportedly planning to deport Laotian, Vietnamese, and Philippino individuals to Libya. Not only are these individuals being denied due process, but they have zero ties to Libya and Libyan migration detention is infamous for extensive abuses.

My long read for @ecfr.eu and probably the publication im most proud of in all my years doing this. A deep dive into how Russia retrenched in Libya, uses it to project power from Ukraine to the Sahel, and the many lessons Europe or other frontline states can learn from it ecfr.eu/publication/...

This feels like the latest in a string of Trump decisions meant to destabilise the #Mediterranean. Undeniably repugnant from a human rights standpoint, this decision may also shift the balance of power in #Libya (since we're back to this lens of analysis only, it seems) depending on concessions made

Please read 'My Fourth Time, We Drowned', which documents the horrific abuses taking place in Libya & how the EU is already implicated in crimes against humanity for sending refugees/migrants there: www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/696846... @melvillehouse.bsky.social

NEW: The war in Sudan isn't only a power struggle between military factions, but also an attempt at silencing those who dare envision a future for Sudan rooted in democracy and justice, argues former Nonresident Fellow Hamid Khalafallah in this new analysis. timep.org/2025/04/15/s...

My latest for the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social is a clarion call: #Libya’s economy isn’t unraveling by accident. From shadow oil deals to digital money printing, what looks like drift is direction - & the path leads to collapse unless reforms reverse course.

This piece is a bit bleak, but it's a banger. If we are to meet our critical moment in history, we need to reckon with the reality that we are not up against adversaries we have seen before. We are up against end times fascism. 🧵 www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-i...

The Trump administration is seeking to deport Mahmoud Khalil, not because he committed a crime, but on the basis of his "ideas." That is wrong, in and of itself. But it's important to remember that they are also lying about his ideas. Don't let them redefine who Mahmoud is.

Meta has complied with 94% of Israel’s requests to take down posts, including from accounts outside the country. New Meta AI content moderators are being trained on these decisions. In other words: Insta and FB have actively been running cover for genocide. www.dropsitenews.com/p/leaked-dat...

At today's March on Washington for Gaza, little kids' shoes and sandals ran down Pennsylvania Ave to represent the 17,400 Palestinian children that "the US has paid for Israel to murder." 📸s from the demonstration (1)

In one world, Libya's Central Bank begs for help - calling out graft, diverted oil revenues, and wild spending that's sinking Libya; all while passing policy that makes ordinary people foot the bill. In another world, Libya is “stable” and “open for business.” Only one of these worlds is real.

In my latest paper for @arabreforminit.bsky.social I discuss moral policing, social control and other strategies in the face of governance failure by the government of GNU in Libya. www.arab-reform.net/publication/...

Russia has entrenched itself in Libya over the past decade, transforming the country into a hub for its African operations. Russia’s approach to embedding itself in fragile states written by @tmegrisi.bsky.social @ecfrafrica.bsky.social @ecfrmena.bsky.social

2011's R2P intervention in Libya represented a peak of the international order. Today Italy violates the Rome statute to protect a torturer while AFRICOM mollycoddles a cocaine baron This is the story of Libya's reverse phoenix experience w/ @dawnmenaorg.bsky.social dawnmena.org/libya-is-the...

I have worked on civil wars and state capture for 25 years. So let me be REALLY clear about this for Americans: Your courts are only as useful as the willingness of politicians to comply with those judgments. And the willingness of police to enforce. And Musk, Trump & Co do NOT care about the law

🧵Censor, purge, defund - how Trump is following the authoritarian playbook on science & universities. This isn't chaos - it's deliberate & well-established methods. I've mapped 40 actions into 3 categories covering attacks on science, attacks on universities and international collaboration. 1/16

The way to avoid a repeat of this weekend's atrocities in Syria is to have a state capable of securing the country and demobilizing its myriad militias. But the state can't do that if it is starved for resources (and if Turkey continues to sponsor the SNA) www.ft.com/content/fbb2...

Libya and Iraq share some striking parallels, yet they have rarely been considered alongside each other. We are embarking on a comparative analysis of state formation under conditions of fragmented central authority. This collection is the first step in this process. library.fes.de/pdf-files/bu...

The proliferation of relatively cheap military-grade combat drones has allowed many African states to acquire a capability for precise air strikes they previously lacked. Is this changing the balance of power between states & insurgents in African conflicts? www.megatrends-afrika.de/publikation/...

Can and should HTS be delisted by the UNSC? The continued listing of HTS poses real challenges to Syria's reconstruction, but there are ways to delist the group within a political process focused on security. see www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-... @crisisgroup.org

Important new study on #Russia ‘s search for new strongholds in the #Mediterranean following Assad’s fall in #Syria By @robertamaggi.bsky.social Federica Saini Fasanotti and Francesco Salesio Schiavi 👇

Russia is searching for new strongholds in the #Mediterranean following Assad's fall in #Syria, Francesco Salesio Schiavi, Federica Saini Fasanotti & I write in our latest CARPO Policy Brief. We look at efforts to preserve the presence it has while expanding operations, including in #Libya.

My book on the Syrian conflict, From Jihad to Politics, is out online and in paperback. You can download the pdf: academic.oup.com/book/57951/b... I answer two key questions: Why have Jihadis took over the Syrian armed opposition? Why have Syrian Jihadis became more pragmatic over the years?

Some professional news - I’m honored to have been offered an Associate Fellow position at CARPO. My research will focus on SSR and DDR, change mgmt in security institutions, and security arrangements in contested territories in #NorthAfrica and the #Sahel. Stay tuned ✨ carpo-bonn.org/en/about-us/...