Since April 2023, nearly a million refugees have crossed into Chad, fleeing deadly violence in Sudan. One town — Adré — has become a fragile frontline for an estimated quarter of a million refugees. My report on the situation in Eastern Chad for @apnews.com ⬇️ apnews.com/article/suda...

How do cyber-scam centres actually operate — and why are they proving so difficult to address? This new report from #GITOC offers one of the clearest pictures to date, detailing how these operations are structured, sustained, and expanding across the region🧵 📘: globalinitiative.net/analysis/com...

Reports that the #US is seeking to send migrants to #Libya have raised big concerns on the risks of #HR violations and abuse. In my new #GITOC brief, I detail those, & how #deportations could fuel Libya’s criminal economies and worsen political instability. globalinitiative.net/analysis/how...

Overnight, a Zawiyan coalition incl Mohamed Bahroun al-Far, Mohamed Sifaw, Othman Lhab, Busriba units, & Mahmoud Ben Rjab advanced toward Siyahiya, & may clash w/ Zintani forces. Driven by fears of marginalization, the move aims to ease pressure on SDF & divide GNU's forces.

Later today, the 111 Brigade, Joint Force, & 444 Brigade are expected to regroup & launch a coordinated push to confine the SDF to its stronghold in Sug al-Jumaa. A decision to militarily overtake Sug al-Jumaa - densely populated & symbolically significant - would be perilous.

Early this morning, the Special Deterrence Force (SDF) and Judicial Security launched a successful counteroffensive against disorganized GNU-aligned forces in southern Tripoli, deploying retrofitted commercial drones & drone-assisted targeting to hit key 444 Brigade positions

Tripoli may be on the cusp of being the theater for warfare unlike anything seen since 2011 - an urban battlefield marked by drone strikes, street-to-street clashes, & guerilla warfare. The vast majority of casualties in this context will unfortunately be innocent civilians.

In a new article, my colleague @romainlecour.bsky.social and I assess how the recent US designations of #Haitian #gangs as foreign terrorist organizations could impact the humanitarian and criminal situation in the country. globalinitiative.net/analysis/hai... #Haiti #Sanctions #FTO

🚨NEW @crisisgroup.org REPORT Libya's $70 billion sovereign wealth fund has been under UN #sanctions since the revolt against Muammar al-Qadhafi in 2011. The sanctions remain in place more a decade after his death.🧵 www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

My latest bit of analysis is out, focusing on how the conflict in Sudan is shaping the #smuggling of food, fuel, weapons and people in #Libya, #Chad and #Sudan. enactafrica.org/enact-observ...

Some of our thinking at the Global Initiative on dynamics to watch on organized crime, and efforts being made to counter it: globalinitiative.net/analysis/the...

For those who couldn't attend @alicefereday.bsky.social and my event on how the conflict in #Sudan has impacted human smuggling in Sudan, #Chad and the region, a recording can be found here: www.youtube.com/live/Tqctuxl...