This is terrible news for the world on so many levels

Today on French media they are constantly talking about something else completely. Epic Furry!

Russian Industrial output for January 2026 decreased by 0,8% when compared to January 2025. When it comes to the military production output munitions are down 6%. Guidance systems are up only 9,8% and production of military vehicles is up 24,5%.

New on Substack: a couple more words on regional deficits & some initial high-level findings on regional veteran training programs. Plus an assortment of interesting regional news that didn't make it into the Bear Market Brief. Also available on the blog soon! minczifra.substack.com/p/on-regiona...

Russia Finance Ministry data now officially confirms: Russia's consolidated budget deficit was 3.9% of GDP in 2025 (8291.5 billion RUB). More on the background: janiskluge.substack.com/p/russias-co...

Russia's economic strains are seeping into its military firms and industrial regions, documents reviewed by @bloomberg.com show www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Robert Barrington - Corrupted Kingdom Britain's Disappearing Integrity – And How We Can Get It Back À paraître en juillet chez Profile Books

russias only fiber optic plant shut down for a year after Ukrainian strikes. russia gets fleece with prices, gone up 3 times, by China as an added bonus ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/02/26/e...

Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski: My bet is that this war will end not like the Second World War but like the First World War — namely when Putin runs out of resources. He’s already spent his national reserve fund. His last big pile of resources is the gold reserve. 1/2

‼️ Russia: “"There's no chance of having such a strong ruble." Gref predicted a sharp decline in the Russian currency.” 👉 Herman Gref is the CEO of Sberbank 👉 Sberbank is Majority Owned by the National Welfare Fund (NWF) 👉 Ministry of Finance controls the NWF ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/02/26/n...

Deutsche Bank arithmetic Q: If "Epstein brought in more than $1mn in annual revenues" how much does Deutsche pay out in Epstein-related fines and settlements plus compliance failings linked to a Russian money-laundering scheme? A: $225m

Google Threat Intelligence Group took down a massive global #hacking network. This 🇨🇳 based actor built a vast surveillance tool across the world. Cyber espionage group had operating since 2017 cloud.google.com/blog/topics/...

💥BREAKING: Viktor Orbán ordered the military deployed to guard “key energy facilities,” citing a possible Ukrainian “attack” to disrupt Hungary’s energy system. The move fuels fears of a staged national security emergency or false-flag incident ahead of the April 12 elections. This is really scary.

@cepr.org podcast with Maurice Obstfeld ( @piie.com and @ucberkeleyofficial.bsky.social ) and me about the reconstruction of #Ukraine #UkrainianView #EconSky cepr.org/multimedia/w...

Although the war in Ukraine is not over, four years in, one thing is clear: Putin has failed in Ukraine. Great post by Timothy Ash. timothyash.substack.com/p/putin-the-...

Fair point: Europeans should be reminded that each passing day of war allowing the Kremlin to destroy Ukraine a little further and kill a few more Ukrainians will cost them millions in the future. It may not be totally by chance that net contributors to the EU budget tend to be pro-🇺🇦

The electronic budget system shows a 4.82 trillion ruble deficit as of 20 February 2026

A 5% drop of the Russian labour force plus a drop of the investment capacity for labour-saving technologies and you get a shitty shitty econ situation. But it’s also the reason why the West should open its doors to Russian high-productivity migrants.

Tatneft, a Tatar oil producer, and Transneft, the Russian oil transport monopoly, are suffering large losses following Ukraine’s strike on the pumping station in Kalyekino. If the damage is severe enough, could impact Russian oil exports. www.reuters.com/business/ene...

Reuters has some great reporting on Russia today. It reports that Russia’s largest developer, Samolët, has reached a deal with banks to refinance its debts. The government decided against “direct” state support; this deal is indirect state support. www.reuters.com/business/fin...

Hey @andreamatranga.bsky.social considering that the number of extent systems diminishes daily but the daily average number of destroyed systems remains stable, what does it say about the efficiency of the défense? Also are we looking at a tipping point soonish?

The half that never gets told. It’s very depressing to constantly follow the collapse of the Russian economy but the resilience of the Ukrainian one should attract as much attention.

Good round-up of the dramatic situation of the African mercenaries in the Russian army www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ow-w...

Javier Blas at Bloomberg says discounts on Russia’s Urals now exceed $30(!) a barrel on Brent crude. Russian oil is selling for below $40 a barrel. Horrible for the Russian budget.

#blyatonomics www.radiofrance.fr/franceinter/...

If you want to hear more about the Russian economy, tune in tonight to the @tochnyi.info stream. www.youtube.com/watch?v=_kfT...

Hacktivists tried to find a workaround to Discord’s age-verification software, Persona. Instead, they found its frontend exposed to the open internet, and that was just the beginning. www.therage.co/persona-age-...

1\ A decisive factor for Ukraine will be the balance between Russia's losses and recruitment. Here is a well-informed source saying that Russian forces expanded 2022-2024, but probably didn't meaningfully change in 2025. My comments below...

They've been doing this for a while. It's called rebalancing. Basically, if you hold 100kg of gold worth $150mn and the price of gold rises 10%, you can sell 9.1% of your holdings and still own $150mn.

Russia is terrorizing Odesa, striking it almost daily. Historical buildings, cafés, homes, schools, and more are being destroyed. This is one of the city’s schools after last night’s russian attack:

I don't think I've had a chance to tell you how absolutely grand @nelsonhist.bsky.social's book Oceans of Grain is. While the subtitle mentions the US alone, it's actually more accurate to describe it as a twin history of US and Ukrainian grain exports. It's fun, it's smart and you should read it.

Very true dear @klastommy.bsky.social... Considering that a brand new BTR-80 would set you back some RRB 50,000,000 and that said vehicle carries 7 troopers and 3 crewmen, the recruitmen bonus of those dudes alone would equal the price of the troop-carrier.

The militarization of Russia's economy continues at full speed: Production of weapons (here: "finished metal goods") increased by 20-30% last year. Source: forecast.ru

That's important but there's worse! To a considerable extend, this war has been privately funded on the Russian side. From unit-level funding campaigns to buy vehicles, drones and socks to billionaires sponsoring entire regiments. The rapidly worsening econ crisis is going to derail this and,

Putinism enshittifies the world. Evidence #34,284,901

Slovaks are still waiting for justice. A retrial ordered by the Supreme Court of Slovakia is to reveal who masterminded the 2018 assassination. www.occrp.org/en/news/slov...

"Hunterbrook’s analysis of trade data shows that the total value of Ubiquiti shipments to Russia rose 66% after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, despite U.S. and EU sanctions."

Chinese refineries are actively buying the Russian oil India is rejecting. From 1,39 million barrels a day being delivered to Chinese ports in December in January the volumes rose to 1,72 million and in February to 2,09 million barres per day. www.kommersant.ru/doc/8459585

Excellent piece on the ridiculous claim that $12 tn worth of deals are to be had in Russia, if only that pesky Ukraine would do as it's told. Anyone who believes Russians' claim... I have a bridge or three to sell. www.economist.com/finance-and-...

Suppliers of death: The Insider identifies another 300 companies making purchases on behalf of the russian military. While #EU has some blame we are second fiddle in scope. theins.press/en/inv/289291

Russia's Vologda region just entered the (growing) club of regions offering over 3 million rubles to new contract soldiers. Source: gogov.ru/contract-pay...

There was no massive reduction last year, only a few regions reduced their bonus temporarily. My impression: foreigners are not a major factor yet (except for North Koreans), but the Russians are definitely trying.

Drilling in Russia fell to the lowest level since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in December 2025, per Bloomberg. There’s not enough money left to support previous levels of drilling.

I wrote another thing! Russia is out of cash, so what happens now? open.substack.com/pub/thepeopl...

Feels significant 🇪🇺🇨🇦

“We are seeing increased repatriation flows as foreign US dollar holders move capital back to their home currency,” While US interest rates are higher than euro or Japanesw rates… Funny, eh? 🇺🇸🇪🇺🇯🇵 giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... Fund managers take most bearish stance on dollar for a decade

“Russia’s economy hasn’t collapsed. It has entered the “death zone”—surviving by consuming its own future. Growth at 1%. Budget deficit rising. Military sector expands while civilian industry shrinks. Interest payments > education + healthcare. No climber survives this altitude forever.”