Every year, people mock this tree. But I love it anyway. It reminds us that if we stand together in tough times, we can overcome anything. Merry Christmas from my family to yours. 🎄✨

1/2 The cherry on top here is that oil tanker charter rates have c.trebled since July. That’s the market as a whole, not the Russian bit were rates and insurance presumably now have to take into account the successful drone strikes on the Virat (vlcc), Kairos (Suezmax) and Qendil (Aframax) tankers.

Even by American standards, Louisiana is a shit-hole and the cultural antithesis of Denmark. Appointing it's governor special envoy to Greenland is a perfect example of America's blathering hubris.

In theory, the economics of this are perfectly manageable - an eventual, unexpected tax rise here, additional government debt foisted on majority state owned banks there - but the notion the Russian economy is impregnable and that the invasion is a blue-collar economic Renaissance, not so much.

Graham's sanctions bill was introduced on April Fools day *

A reminder the media fixation with US talks and talking points serves mostly to distract from the horror Russia has unleashed on Ukraine.

What Russian occupation means and what America is trying to force on 100s of thousands of Ukrainians without any possibility for justice.

1/5 I reckon Craig Kennedy is more Chuck Pfarrer than Mick Ryan. To give one example, his latest piece doesn't mention interest rates once*. Given it includes a description of recent Russian credit conditions and business investment, this is a bad thing.

Given the EU moved to officially seize the Russian cash 6 days ago, we now know how long it takes information to penetrate the concentric circles of dumb, hubris and cheeseburgers surrounding America's decision-makers.

It's possible to quantify the magnitude of this "rebuke"; the $400m aid per year for Ukraine is better than nothing, but barely 2/3 of the average sent per week by the Biden administration (average includes the 6 month aid freeze Trump was able to impose).

1/2 Seems the US is gearing up for another sanctionspalooza Fox News Dec 14th: 1,000-strong "dark fleet" of rogue oil tankers skirting sanctions has emerged as a new target for the U.S. and Ukraine, a senior maritime intelligence analyst claims. Dec 16th: 4 US senators introduced a bipartisan

So "Heroes next door" is finishing, and it's the been the best telly programme for ages. Bah.

In honour of both America's love for Russia and offer of a security guarantee

My timeline just now America: Agrees to do something Also America: Unilaterally suspends agreement to do something

Russian Business news 15/December/2025: Russia because it was the only exporter of nitrogen fertilizers not under tariffs by the US managed to increase its share on the US market to 35% of all imports. www.kommersant.ru/doc/8291549

New Craig Kennedy substack post out today, this time on Russian state finances. Wondering* where to put it on the spectrum of Russian invasion commentators that has Chuck Pfarrer at one end and Mick Ryan on the other.

Russia just said the quiet part out loud. Russia’s ambassador to the UK, Andrey Kelin, admitted there is no “deal” to be made with Ukraine — only an agreement on its surrender. That single sentence destroys years of Kremlin talk about “peace” and “negotiations.”👇

Russia/America are giving more Molotov-Ribbentrop than they are Chamberlain vibes TBH

1/2 Self-important drivel from 2 fancy boy Americans who'd rather you didn't mention the US now regularly votes alongside Russia in the UN on Ukraine matters, and who use careful curation to misrepresent America's actual position.

New US entry requirements a necessary step taken to protect true American citizens and the Great Leader's vision from corrupting, counter-revolutionary, "foreign" influences

Nice

Expert discussing the new US NSS: "This is hardly an administration known for its consistency or coherence" * The administration: ......

V.sensible thread on the Russian economy

1/2 From Jan 1st 2026 VAT in Russia will increase from 20% to 22%, the first major increase in 20 years. The number of businesses paying VAT will also increase as the t/o threshold is cut from 60m rubles p.a. to 20m, capturing micro-businesses for the first time.

Course they do

Helpful summary of an American defense spending bill's Ukraine bits. F'all new aid, but should make it marginally more difficult - in theory - for the Whitehouse to be a dick about the scraps it still provides. Nothing about sanctions, but ample scope for performative windbaggery by US politicians.

CPAC becoming a US led/financed Far-Right internationale that's already more successful than Mussolini's Comitati d'Azione per l'Universalità di Roma (CAUR), probably deserves more attention now that promoting European "patriotic" parties is official US policy, even from the interminably "savvy".

1/5 In response to the interesting chat about Russian bank liquidity, here's some notes on the British credit crunch. This can more accurately be called the end of demutualization as almost every bank that failed/was taken over, was a former building society*. As PLCs these adopted much the same

1/2 "O wad some Power the giftie gie us To see oursels as ithers see us! It wad frae mony a blunder free us" aka the new US National Security strategy, which sets out America's racist views of Europe and intention to promote the Far Right/undermine the EU.

To those folk saying the latest round of US/Russia talks achieved nothing, delaying the full imposition of US sanctions on Lukoil until April next year is definitely a something.

1/4 Russian mortgages - demand: 2025 has seen the demand for mortgages recover from historic lows. And while the new mortgage market remains dependent on the various subsidised schemes (which together accounted for 82% of the YTD value in November), successive interest rate cuts have seen a modest

Bad customer service: At the same time as Germany is buying more weapons from the US to send to Ukraine, US "war" officials have cut communications to the German military coordinating deliveries, and also halted the delivery of certain items.

America: Climate change is a hoax, so drill baby drill Also America: Buys fleet of icebreakers from Finland because climate change is making the North West passage more navigable so rapidly, it'd take too long to build their own

The limited journalistic attention paid to this (oil tankers can now blow up anywhere in the world), is a reminder English speaking coverage of Russia's invasion is first and foremost sanitized coverage of US involvement in the conflict, with White house sources essentially setting the agenda.

The US and Russia cooperating over/forming joint ventures to exploit the Arctic provides useful context for Trump's chat about Canada and Greenland (Canada becoming the 51st state of the US would certainly resolve the historic dispute over who owns the rights to the Northwest passage).

Some bloke in The Atlantic confusing Trump's hither and yon rhetoric with his actual and remarkably consistent approach to Ukraine is only to be expected, but to hear certain folk on @davidsonofaaron.bsky.social 's Briefing Room doing the same (a) sucked and (b) has also aged like milk.

1/2 So this probably crosses a line/hopefully scares the bejeezuz out of ships carrying Russian stuff across the Black sea), but also poses a dilemma for commentators; there's no US involvement, it distracts from surrender plan chat, is a call bank to Ukrainian naval success and a reminder the

Maybe, but when you pardon Ross Ulbricht (distribution), Changpeng Zhao (money launderer) and now Juan Orlando Hernández (trafficker), you get a darn tight, full service, crypto friendly illegal drugs operation.

Intentional or not, an obvious reading of America's Ukraine policy is it has, with media complicity, become a "psyop" intended to humiliate, undermine morale and induce despair (by ensuring any US support is only ever viewed in terms of uncertainty, hope, disappointment and/or unacceptable costs).

Americans will never understand this

Americans: "So the Trump surrender plan sees America rip up the tenets of the post war order, screw Ukraine every way imaginable and undermine European security for a generation, but ...... who exactly wrote it?"

So Ukraine/US agree a peace proposal involving significant Ukrainian concessions, US makes noises about putting pressure on Russia journalists repeat, possibly some meetings involving Trump, Russia rejects proposal, no US pressure applied. Rinse, repeat.

Ukraine having to repeat American lies about Trump's surrender plan.

So Jared Kushner, whose business model mostly involves being handed wodges of cash by wealth funds, had a meeting with a Russian in charge of a wealth fund, after which America adopted the surrender plan some Russians had kindly drafted.

V.smart Peter Thiel's bestest blood boy hasn't noticed American policy since January has been no more money, weapons or sanctions, resulting in more Ukrainians dying. Blah blah hillbilly elegy blah blah

America trying to remove any incentive for Russia to stop committing the war crimes integral to its ongoing air campaign.

'sake

The US to get profits from Ukraine reconstruction projects others pay for is a callback to the original minerals deal, which was predicated on Trump believing the US should be repaid every cent of aid it gave Ukraine. And again, Trump's position on Ukraine proves to be remarkably consistent.

Here's a reminder of that time Don Trump Jr, Tucker Carlson and Steve Witkoff tried to undermine President Zelenskyy during a war. Zelenskyy had by this point survived over a dozen assassination attempts.