one immediate dramatic consequence of the Hungarian result: Magyar has promised to repair relations with the EU and unblock a €90bn EU loan for Ukraine

A creator taking the time to share an insight into their (brilliant) creation is some good internet.

An American think tank fellow and broadsheet newspaper columnist spreading obvious misinformation on twitter about US aid for Ukraine. Facts.

1/5 Aid for Ukraine - economic, military and humanitarian (above all safe hosting of refugees) - forms a 3 legged stool, take one away, the stool falls over. The US stopped approving new aid in Jan 2025 and has intermittently frozen the delivery of already approved aid since then. True with PURL,

The Bruegel Russian foreign trade tracker has total Russian exports to the US in 2025 at $3.8bn, so bugger all*. Other than financial, US sanctions on Russia have always been about their secondary effect.

America's relative "military prowess" graphed. Comparing c.30,000 ships sailing thru the strait p.a., at a potential $1-2m a pop with Iran's annual military budget, indicates at least the finance for a rapid rearmament will be there in a matter of months. #maximumlethality

So Points 7 & 10 = the rest of the world having to pay for America's dumb, a Trump toll* on the global economy #maximumlethality

The complicity of the US media via celebrating and/or sanewashing this lunatic nonce is mind boggling.

Nice (adds 300-450 nautical miles/1-2 days extra sailing to the journey if travelling from the Baltics to Suez).

When you start a graph matters. Not sure picking the biggest ever spike in activity as a starting point is an especially credible approach.

BIM Sberbank (c.40% of the mortgage market) and VTB Bank together dominate Russian retail banking, and that online banking is largely ubiquitous.

Maybe the real deterrent was the strait-closure we made along the way.

1/8 🧵on US/Russia sanctions to celebrate the 1st birthday of the Blumenthal and Graham “Sanctioning Russia Act” being introduced to the US senate. Despite the bill being co-sponsored by 84 senators, crossing the 2/3 threshold required to override a presidential veto, it has not been passed.

What happens to the Russian economy, if oil prices are much higher than we assume in our baseline forecast? My colleague Heli Simola assesses the situation. Even much higher oil prices would not turn Russia's public finances into surplus. www.bofbulletin.fi/en/blogs/202...

How can one not admire history’s exquisite dark sense of humor? As part of a “delegation” of sanctioned Russian State Duma deputies visiting the United States, there was none other than the actual grandson of USSR's Vyacheslav Molotov, there to discuss a Trump–Putin pact.

V.true, except Trump/the American Right will claim Iran is a major, historic victory no matter what leaving American "exceptionalism" to heavily caveat every other mainstream interpretation (other than a few self-pitying op-eds).

Having to tap the oligarchs even with the Trump windfall makes clear how badly Russian state finances are faring.

It's as if the current US administration has found a way to sidestep domestic constraints on its ability to remove sanctions on Russia.

Fair play to the US Republican party, their President has launched an even dumber war than the last dumb war launched by a dumb Republican President, but they've still managed to incorporate "dumb" into their self-aggrandizing political rhetoric faster than it could be used critically by Democrats.

So if all Iran's traditional military kit and nuclear gubbins have been obliterated 10xs over, would the US taking a massive L and pissing off ASAP, leaving Ukraine teaching the gulf how to deal with drones in exchange for Kushner money, be the best outcome for global peace, the global economy etc?

Tired: Copium Wired: Tactical competency

A brilliant thread that in an ideal world would put a stake thru the heart of every "savvy" article claiming Trump's position on Russia ever wavers.

So a definite uptick in the daily body count reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

In Russian mafia terms Kushner is a "bratva" (the wallet), "an individual, often a legitimate business owner or banker, used by the organization to launder money, hold assets, or finance operations while keeping the criminal bosses distanced from the funds"

Just a reminder in January the US shipped its minesweepers back from the Middle East to America for decommissioning

Perhaps Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE could stop handing Trump's son-in-law billions and buy themselves some minesweepers instead.

1/3 Volume 2 of David F. Walker’s brilliant 2016 Power Man and Iron Fist revival introduces a chilling militia: men in full body armour and masks who prowl the city in an unmarked van, abducting unsuspecting Black and brown men after violently subduing them.

1/8 Trump's shipping insurance brainfart, then this press release indicated the Strait of Hormuz hadn't figured in America's Iranian war plans

Handy guide to the transition from alternative facts to stupid

1/6 When preparing to wage war on Iran, America forgot to refill the US strategic petrol reserve. It also ...

Fun is some Ukrainian think tankers/international relations Professors putting out overconfident op-eds, riddled with basic errors, that exaggerate everything America is doing wrong and everything it needs to do to achieve war objectives it has yet to clarify. I'm sure they'd be appreciated.

Utter shambles *

The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is getting some attention with the Trump admin refusing to use it because "reasons". What isn't is the failure to replenish it after the Biden admin tapped it in 2022, which mebbes would have been a sensible thing to do before launching a war in the Middle East?

1/3 Great thread that can be broadened out from the political economy of Russian military recruitment to include the additional social and political objectives recruitment serves. By conscripting Ukrainians living in occupied areas Russia both removed a potential source of opposition to its

And it won't matter a single fuck/have any influence on America's policy towards Ukraine.

Affordability aka the price of petrol in the US up c.7% in a week (and where relatively low taxes and big, stupid cars leave consumers particularly exposed to changes in the underlying price of gasoline)

Life comes at you fast

Another example of Russia having to choose guns over butter

Credible reports that ginormous Russian LNG (liquid natural gas) tanker Arctic Metagaz is on fire in Mediterranean. Reports suggest it was hit be a USV (uncrewed surface vessel) Whether Iran linked or Ukraine, very big implications for Russian war effort

1/3 New lending fell back substantially in the month up to/including Feb 1st. The data is likely still complicated/boosted by folk rushing to get subsidised mortgages before the rules changed (notably the switch to 1 per household). So March 1st data should see another reduction in total new lending

V.nicely done (conveying the difference between a permanent, continent-wide transition and a disruption lasting however long)

Perhaps instead of discussing what America wants to achieve in Iran, folk should be asking what Israel considers to be an acceptable outcome, given this is more likely to be clear and consistent (and involve bombing Iran into bloody anarchy).

"Iran is a distraction from Epstein" only works if you believe there's a chance his male, American associates will suffer some serious consequences. That's just not how America rolls*.

Deutsche Bank arithmetic Q: If "Epstein brought in more than $1mn in annual revenues" how much does Deutsche pay out in Epstein-related fines and settlements plus compliance failings linked to a Russian money-laundering scheme? A: $225m

US military sales falling from c.$77 in 2023 and 2024 to $39bn in 2025 is a heckuva reduction given EU defence spending grew over the same period from $312bn to c.$392bn over the same period. The reduction also comfortably outweighs the c.$4bn committed to PURL by YE 2025.

America, will lock up a British granny who hasn't committed any crimes, won't lock up any male, American associates of Jeffrey Epstein * www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...

The real art of the deal

Mebbes aye/mebbes naw (fear of more American madness). More concretely payment processors have a big influence on internet content.