"Putin attacked Ukraine, not Russians" fails to grapple with why millions of ordinary Russians were willing to follow orders in a devastating war against Ukraine. This stuff open up questions over how far Russia as a society will come to terms with the past after Putin is gone.

“The Wizard of Oz was terrifying only until the curtain drew back and revealed the man with the microphone—small, ordinary, and afraid. Every autocrat is the same. The show of grandeur is a projection of fear: the fear of being seen as he is, of being small…” open.substack.com/pub/steadyst...

Checklist when you hear Russian officials speaking ⬇️

Russian asset and traitor to the US meeting her handler

This is how Russia wages war — not on the front line, but against innocents. A woman aged 80, tending her livestock in Antonivka, Kherson region, was killed instantly when a Russian drone dropped explosives on her. No military target. Just another civilian — erased.

Russia’s sophisticated use of reflexive control—a powerful method of psychological manipulation aimed at influencing an opponent’s decisions and perceptions—is reshaping modern conflict and threatening democratic societies worldwide.

New - Europe’s 3-body problem: collapsing global order sparks hunt for new trajectory I got to write about one of my favourite Chinese sci-fi novels. Europe, realising it can’t fix systemic chaos, is instead trying to shift its own orbit.

Our exclusive report on Russia’s tank production is out. Using internal files and state contracts, we show production plans for the next decade and current output. A short thread will follow soon, but for now, you can read the report frontelligence.substack.com/p/exclusive-inside-russias-20262036

Insightful analysis of Russia’s breaking point by Ben Connable. Despite a record of sacrifice and fatalism, history suggests key vulnerabilities that are also in play for Russia today. As Ben also notes, much will also depends on our own resolve. warontherocks.com/2024/09/russ...

1/8 Russia has recovered and adapted militarily. Most of Europe is still preparing to fight the Russia of 2022. It is now 2025, and today's Russia is a different type of threat. We are not ready

There are also a couple of myths about the gasoline crisis and stats that keep getting repeated that I want to address:

The documents in German and Russian: The "Third Reich" and the Soviet Union proclaim to "secure peace in Europe" after the "collapse of the Polish state" They both acuse France and GB of trying to "prolong the war". Which means modern tankies sound like Nazis

1/9 European countries are preparing to defend against the Russia that invaded Ukraine in 2022. But that version of Russia no longer exists. The Russia of 2025 or 2027 is more dangerous, more experienced, and far ahead in unmanned warfare. Europe is not ready

Ultimately it doesn’t matter whether Britain thinks we are at war with Russia if Moscow already considers itself at war with us, which it does. We either acknowledge the reality of it or bury our heads in the sand, in either scenario, the war for Europe has already begun.

“It cannot control Ukraine by attraction or partnership, so it invents a crisis, manufactures lies about genocide and NATO expansion…It is the strategy of a bully: provoke, threaten, extract something for nothing, and repeat.” tomorrowsaffairs.com/putins-lies-...

Reminder for those who still refuse to accept that “anti-imperialist” Russia was one of the instigators of WW2.

Can we spread this simple truth? Dictatorships are not our friends! They suppress their own people, act aggressively toward their neighbors, and constantly lie! Why is this not common sense? Why don’t we educate our children and protect our democracies?

“When Russia cannot win by production, innovation, or persuasion, it wins by lying. When it cannot inspire allegiance, it coerces obedience. When it cannot dominate militarily, it turns to hybrid, cognitive, and political warfare.” tomorrowsaffairs.com/putins-lies-...

Just a reminder!

On 17 September 1939, the Soviet Union joined WWII on the side of Nazi Germany by invading Poland This attack marked beginning of Soviet annexation of Western Ukrainian lands, setting stage for the formation of Ukrainian Insurgent Army, which fought against occupation 📹 1+1

Valid take, if you think about it.

Looking at Russia’s war against Ukraine as a petro-aggression, it seems only natural to regard Ukrainian attacks on oil and gas depots and transit routes as targeting the “root causes of the conflict”, as Moscow likes to say.

We don't do propaganda to make you believe something. It's to make you believe nothing. So you do nothing.

It's not coming as a massive air assault against Warsaw and Berlin followed by thousands of tanks. Instead it's creeping upon Europe in small steps. Each step small enough to fall under the threshold for a military respons. Slowly, slowly we are crawling towards an all out war in Europe.

It is with heavy heart (and, unfortunately, deep affection) that I must reshare a snippet from the 1980s masterpiece “Yes, Prime Minister”, in relation to Russia’s drone attack on a NATO ally.

Putin says he’s fighting for “people’s rights” in eastern Ukraine—by killing over 20 elderly standing in line at a post van.

🫡 Eternal memory & honor to the fallen. Strength, honor, and courage to all involved,and those that are still fighting. Today is the 3rd anniversary of the start of the Kharkiv offensive. #UkraineNews #russiaMustPay #StandWithUkraine

1/8 John Deere is the exact type of American manufacturing company Trump says he wants to protect with tariffs. But those same tariffs are crushing the iconic tractor maker—and it's a perfect case study in how trade wars backfire. buff.ly/gBpj5xy

1/7 Trumpism is a cheap American copy of Putinism. Both rely on spectacle, disinformation, and manufactured chaos—tools perfected by Vladislav Surkov, Putin’s shadowy strategist. But while Putinism serves imperial goals, Trumpism is a reality show with authoritarian ambitions

Another morning, another Russian war crime. At least 10 people dead this morning in Kyiv, 2 of them children.

Do it!

Field marshal Wilhelm Keitel sketching out his negotiating position for the Americans to consider, May 8th 1945.

The root cause of the war in Ukraine cannot be addressed without defeating russia, as it stems from russian imperialism

Virtually all major imperialist or colonial wars after WWII has ended with the imperial power withdrawing: The UK: India 1947 France: Vietnam 1954 & Algeria 1962 US: Vietnam 1973, Afghanistan 2021 The USSR: Afghanistan 1988, Eastern Europe 1989. Time for Russia to leave Ukraine!

Unfortunately so! Another delay in the long, but inevitable road for Europe to assume full responsibility for its own security.

In over 1,000 days of invasion, Russia seized less than 1% of Ukraine.

3/ The response was so weak that Russia continued its operations in eastern Ukraine, including Kharkiv and Odesa. It only stopped when Ukrainians pushed back with force. President Obama’s handling of the situation does not deserve praise.

Why hasn’t Europe stepped up to help Ukraine win? Because most Europeans—politicians and voters alike—are weak cowards who would rather look away and hope the problem disappears than confront it head-on

To save everyone some time, I went ahead and made the official Alaska Talks bingo card. How many of those will Trump and Putin talk about?

That is one depressing read without even a ray of sunshine. Life appears to be too good for the political elites in Brussels and key capitals. Time to grow some fangs, EU, and start fighting back!

As a European I find it increasingly upsetting that we are not in control of our own destiny. And while the EU might not be an independent state the members of the EU are, and they should do all they can to avoid us, the citizens, to come under the joke of the Russian-American axis.

We may identify Russian propaganda on social media, but academics that act like agents of influence we refuse to call what they are: paid and/or ideologically driven propagandists and lobbyists for Russia, China, and their authoritarian allies. Spot the difference ⬇️

Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.

"Thank you for your attention to this matter." (sarcasm)

Security for Ukraine and Europe depends on the two coming together to insulate themselves from Washington and construct deterrence against Moscow. The talks that really matter, then, aren’t the ones in Alaska next week. They’re the ones in Europe, right now. /END

China shock? Not that bad, we will just lose some core industrial clusters. Put it all together and Europe ends with a de facto do nothing policy. And steady decline per Draghi’s warning. (But at least we will have been fully WTO compliant.) 4/4

...offers a semi‑excuse for the aggression by referring to a so‑called "history of the conflict" without acknowledging that Russia is also the aggressor in this very "history," it is not analysis but propaganda. (2/2)

Russia killed 31 people in its latest attack on Kyiv—but they are not just numbers. They were children, parents, teachers, neighbors. 🧵 Here are their stories 1/7 ⬇️

#RussiaIsATerroristState. Something tells me Ukrainians will one day find direct perpetrators of this war crime and justice will be served.

5/5 Why it matters A culture built on hate and paranoia can’t reform. It can only collapse — or be forced to change. Until that happens, russia will remain a threat — not just to others, but also to its own people. Because when everyone is a potential enemy, no one is safe