While I am no fan of DoD’s new Irregular Warfare definition, this discussion of its recent IW Directive provides crucial context and raises the right questions. I do wonder about DoD’s ability to folllow through... open.spotify.com/episode/1VtO...

This thought-provoking piece challenges common presumptions about strategic depth—particularly as concerns the Baltics. Lukas Milevski argues an invading military would move far slower than presumed due to sparse infrastructure, difficult terrain and the effects of contestation. lnkd.in/eHpAUaTH

I’m looking forward to an opportunity to discuss the topic of my recent book (The Insurgent’s Dilemma) in the context of evolving counterterrorism. Registration for this virtual event is open to all.

With the US military striking another alleged drug boat, can isolated hits effectively counter organized crime? My recent book (w/ Tom Marks) urges a strategic approach and lays out a framework for how to analyze the problem and craft a response. digitalcommons.ndu.edu/strategic-mo...

From 2023, but Cdr Spansvoll does a great job mapping out the informational, political and military LoE of Russia’s destabilization campaign vs Norway. The implication is very much that we need a campaign to counter a campaign—and that’s still v. relevant today. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Given events in Israel/Gaza, I revisited my Dec23 assessment of who might prevail. Two years on, my sense is "plus ça change, plus ça reste la même chose" but also that all now hinges on the political consolidation of the peace deal—arguably the hardest bit. irregularwarfare.org/articles/the...

Despite an abstruse style, this is insightful on the need to adapt tactical-level logistics toward a more distributed (and less targetable) “push” system. Obviously nature of adversary matters and the caution about unsustainability warrants further thought. thecxfile.substack.com/p/contested-...

Glad to see David Spencer‘s review of my book on the future of insurgency featured in RealClearDefense. He does a great job applying his own expertise to the argument I tried to advance. www.realcleardefense.com/2025/10/13/t...

Informative podcast with Samuel Bendett on tech adaptation in the Russia-Ukraine war. Covers integration of commercial technology, the role of volunteers and innovators in society, and the crucial need to adapt—and adapt again—to a constantly changing battlefield. open.spotify.com/episode/3fG4...

Insightful analysis of Russia’s breaking point by Ben Connable. Despite a record of sacrifice and fatalism, history suggests key vulnerabilities that are also in play for Russia today. As Ben also notes, much will also depends on our own resolve. warontherocks.com/2024/09/russ...

SITREP from Colombia: tremendous economic potential, long tradition of democracy and yet struggling as always with security and governance beyond the big cities. On that front, matters have worsened since the FARC peace deal. economist.com/the-americas...

Good to see Moldova taking proactive measures to counter Russian disinformation and agitation. www.euronews.com/2025/09/22/m...

Perhaps living in Brussels made me particularly interested in this Rest is History series on the invasion of Belgium in 1914. Educational and enthralling, this is also relevant to the war in Ukraine and the prospect of further conflict in Europe in years to come. podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/t...

Austin Long provides important clarity on the Able Archer nuclear “non-crisis” of 1983. Held by some as a whisker away from Armageddon, the moment illustrates instead the need to understand both ourselves - the signals we send - and our enemy. strategicsimplicity.substack.com/p/able-arche...

Drawing on his experience with FARC, David Spencer has penned a superb review of my book 'The Insurgent's Dilemma', exploring the innovations in insurgent strategy and response options that the book covers. Many thanks. digitalcommons.ndu.edu/cgi/viewcont... @hurstpublishers.bsky.social

Podcast: @markgaleotti.bsky.social dissects how a seemingly mundane counter-gang arrest in a provincial Russian capital has escalated the fall-out between Moscow and Baku - and there may be more to come… inmoscowsshadows.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

NOW OUT: A Framework for Countering Organized Crime: Strategy, Planning, and the Lessons of Irregular Warfare, by David H. Ucko and Thomas A Marks (NDU Press). Available in full at: ndupress.ndu.edu/Media/News/N...

Excellent discussion of Europe’s security and defence landscape with @edarnold.bsky.social, RUSI, via the great Modern War Institute at West Point podcast. Very relevant to #NATO. open.spotify.com/episode/7MSk...

يا للروعة I’m now available in Arabic, thanks to the Saudi National Defense University. They have translated our “Crafting Strategy for Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Analysis and Action” (w/ Tom Marks, NDU Press)! I’m hopeful this will further extend the impact of this practioner’s toolkit.

Excellent news. Less excellent: “In total, the EU spent an estimated €23 billion on Russian fossil fuels in 2024, exceeding the military support provided to Ukraine.” www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...

Glad to announce that my latest work, “A Framework for Countering Organized Crime: Strategy, Planning and the Lessons of Irregular Warfare,” now has a cover. Co-authored with Tom Marks, it presents organized crime as an IW problem and proposes a framework to help with analysis and response.

Good reporting on Iran’s use of criminal groups to exert influence abroad, specifically in Europe. The tactic is old; our response is… getting better. Much like Russia’s subversion, the problem isn’t just the singular attack but the broader strategy. newlinesmag.com/spotlight/ho....

Very meaningful for me to contribute to this Festschrift for Christopher Coker, my mentor and friend for many years who sadly passed in 2023. www.hurstpublishers.com/book/coker-o...

Effective speech by Mark Rutte on the NATO today and tomorrow: a stronger, fairer and more lethal Alliance. This is a potent message to those who wonder about NATO and the commitment to trans-Atlantic security. www.nato.int/cps/en/natoh...

Job opening: A crucial opportunity to lead NATO defence policy and planning at a crucial time for the Alliance (…and you get to be my boss!) www.globaljobs.org/jobs/46638-b...

Gavin Esler interviews Klaus Dodds on Arctic geopolitics. Insightful and informed discussion. open.spotify.com/episode/65CW...

Insightful podcast with Stephen Kotkin that will probably anger both fans and detractors of America’s recent shifts on Ukraine—and the world. That in itself makes it worth a listen. open.spotify.com/episode/4r61...

Insightful book review of my “The Insurgent’s Dilemma” by Maj. Travis Peet for the Australian Army Research Centre. Captures the state equivalents of the non-state strategies I explore—a key area of convergence. Many thanks. researchcentre.army.gov.au/library/aust... @hurstpublishers.bsky.social

TX Hammes offers compellling take on the need to adapt for modern warfare. As Hammes has long argued, and as Ukraine bears out, it’s time to move from the “few and exquisite” capabilities to the “small, smart, and many”. www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-seri...

@anneapplebaum.bsky.social on the deliberate traumatization of the federal workforce. The US is moving from a civil service to a patronage system of fealty and loyalty tests. The effect is both insulting and injurious. www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...

Having worked for the US federal government for several years, it angers and saddens me to see the hateful treatment of many fine workers—people who have devoted their lives to US interests and values.

The Trump Administration's attempts to dismantle USAID touches the lives of American public servants & millions of people abroad who depend on it for health services, education, & shelter. Tom Carothers explores the gravity & uncertainty of the situation: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

Krepinevich's net assessment of US, RUS & PRC strategic forces—nuclear & non-nuclear. In contrast with Cold War, these products must now account for multipolar dynamics and great uncertainty. Many crucial findings in here that should inform defense planning and policy. www.hudson.org/defense-stra...

Effective commentary on Russia’s “undeclared war against the West.” The welcome mention of Georgia denonstrates the potency of the attack. rusi.org/explore-our-...

Insightful podcast by @markgaleotti.bsky.social on the UK-Ukrainian ‘One Hundred Years Partnership Agreement', and - indirectly - what it says about the larger challenges and opportunities for supporting Kyiv. inmoscowsshadows.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

The targeting of children and schools to compel socio-political assimilation. Sadly quite ‘effective’. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

As several experiences in state-building bear out, building a political order is far more complex than arming a proxy, not least when in a fraught regional environment such as Syria’s. Will past failures inform this effort? www.businessinsider.com/turkey-influ...

Sobering reporting on Ecuador’s descent into narco-state, with gangs establishing an entire parallel society based on violence, drug-trafficking, corruption and coercion. The country now faces the common challenge of pulling itself up by its bootstraps. www.economist.com/1843/2024/11...

Good to see China’s United Front effort discussed clearly and openly in mainstream media. This ‘magic weapon’ coerces below the threshold of war but also, crucially, below the threshold of our attention. Articles like this are therefore important in raising awareness. www.bbc.com/news/article...

Interesting on trying companies for complicity in war crimes according to principle of universal jurisdiction. Plenty of denial and contention, but seemingly a growing trend with a few successes. Could it also apply to sanctions violations? www.politico.com/news/2024/12...

Exactly on point. Leverage will be needed not just to arrive at a negotiated solution but to enforce it too - particularly against a man like Putin.

Informative podcast by @markgaleotti.bsky.social on Russia’s growing domestic crisis of demographics, drug use and crumbing infrastructure or - as he puts it - “Sex, Drugs & Rocky Roads” inmoscowsshadows.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

Mark Rutte’s first major speech as NATO Secretary General and the message could not be more on point and timely. www.bbc.com/news/article...

Insightful by David Barno and Nora Bensahel on achieving readiness for protracted war. Focused on 4 ‘wicked (yet predictable) problems’ of mobilizarion, contested logistics, defense industrial base and threat to homeland. warontherocks.com/2024/12/amer...

I’m a latecomer, but The Rest is History podcast is erudite, witty, engaging... just great! This episode on the guillotine as a symbol of progress, humanity and societal cleansing is itself rich, but there are 2 whole series on the French Revolution—and much more! podcasts.apple.com/be/podcast/t...

Krepinevich’s “The Origins of Victory” is an informative tour d’horizon on the changing character of war, albeit with a near-exclusive focus on technology. Classic net assessment appprach to topic and, as he argues, failing to adapt will come at a heavy price. yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300...

J. Michaels on need to incorporate the political utility of escalation into our calculations of deterrence. Why would the Rubicon be crossed now, when it wasn’t earlier? The historical examples are on-point but what does it say about Putin’s nuclear sabrerattling? www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Insightful piece by Gartzke and Lindsay on the specific demands for deterrence, especially in a multi-domain environment. As they argue, 'forces that excel at “winning” are not always ideal for “warning”'; each requires its bespoke strategy and theory of victory. warontherocks.com/2024/07/the-...

Tom Marks and I on how ‘irregular warfare’ stayed relevant in a post-Afghanistan era of inter-state competition. Answer: it was redefined. That works, as America’s rivals do mirror the irregular strategies of non-state groups, but it also risks losing IW’s meaning and lessons. lnkd.in/ebf5zMWF

Mark Galeotti’s In Moscow’s Shadows casts a critical eye on BRICS. As he argues, this is at most a highly transactional & symbolic get-together, not to be dismissed but also not a New World Order in the making. Also good on N. Korean support to Russia. inmoscowsshadows.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...