I believe I owe you this column every year. My annual Hall of Fame explanation. Not just how I voted but why. Some surprises. The player who tormented me for a week And thoughts on how dramatically it’s all about to change www.nytimes.com/athletic/697...

With 188 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker, it's looking increasingly likely that we'll see two new members of the Baseball Hall of Fame next Tuesday. But it's possible Andruw Jones just misses out. My latest projections

I’ll lay out my Hall of Fame ballot later this week but here’s how my Athletic teammates voted www.nytimes.com/athletic/696...

Sorry. I'm sorry. I'm trying to delete it.

With 148 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker, it's very likely that Carlos Beltrán will be elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame by the BBWAA this year. Andruw Jones is currently on pace to join him and Jeff Kent in Cooperstown but his fans shouldn't take that for granted yet. My latest projections:

For @notmrtibbs.com and others with any interest: The Globe's Hall of Fame votes will be published on Wednesday morning on BostonGlobe.com. There are six of us: me, Chad Finn, Dan Shaughnessy, Mike Silverman, Alex Speier, and Tara Sullivan.

My first set of 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame projections with 112 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker. Current trends indicate that Carlos Beltrán is very likely to enter the Hall this year, but it's still unclear whether Andruw Jones will join him.

Will post my first full set of 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame projections in the new year. But as a sneak peak, my model has Carlos Beltrán elected in 82% of simulations based on 100 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com’s Tracker. Andruw Jones elected 57% of the time.

Is that Félix chart totally wild? Yes it is. The best comps I can think of are Larry Walker's 2018 to 2019 (25.7% increase through 70 ballots) and Scott Rolen's 2019 to 2020 (24.3% increase through 70 ballots). Félix is 37.2% above where he was through 70 ballots last year.

JAWS and the 2026 Hall of Fame Ballot: Ryan Braun blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the...

Since there are no human-generated ballots being revealed, I took @mordyoberstein.bsky.social's viral Gemini AI prompt idea and applied it to the Hall of Fame election:

Congratulations to Jeff Kent, who was elected tonight to the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum. He got 14 votes from the 16-member committee. Carlos Delgado came in 2nd place with 9 votes, while Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy got 6 votes each. www.cooperstowncred.com/jeff-kent-fi...

Congratulations to newest Hall of Famer Jeff Kent! Hoping someone else will join him on the stage in Cooperstown next summer.

There might be a new Hall of Famer (or two? three?) in 20 minutes. Watch here: www.mlb.com/video/live-h...

By my count, @jaysonst.bsky.social voted for 5 players on this ballot, called Valenzuela "Paul Skenes times a billion" and Delgado "the best player in history to get booted off the ballot after his first year". Godspeed to him in navigating this especially difficult challenge in ballot triage!

The @baseballhall.org just announced that I'm one of the 16 members of the Contemporary Era Committee that will meet Sunday to elect the newest Hall of Famer(s). I'm honored to serve. But it means I won't be writing a column Sunday to analyze the vote. Here's why. www.nytimes.com/athletic/685...

Everything you need to follow the 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame Tracker: The Tracker team: @tonycal.bsky.social @shutthedore.bsky.social, @notmrtibbs.com The full Ballot Tracker: tracker.fyi Quick Tracker Summary/Leaderboard: bit.ly/hof26 The ballot:

The 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot as announced moments ago by @baseballhall.org (baseballhall.org/news/2026-bb...). Results will be announced Jan. 20th. Game on!

Never a bad time to remember some guys!

Errors Are Hits Now pebblehunting.substack.com/p/errors-are...

Cooperstown Notebook: The 2025 Progress Report, Part II blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-...

Next year's Hall of Fame vote will be interesting. 394 ballots this year, but 61 writers -- an especially large influx -- are currently on track to get ballots after this season. With some attrition, as many as one-in-six voters could be first time voters.

We just had a Hall of Fame election for the ages. I wrote about it! Here are 5 Things We Learned www.nytimes.com/athletic/607...

new @fangraphs.com my first look at this year's Hall of Fame election results. The lack of unanimity for Ichiro is stupid, but don't lose sight of the opportunity to celebrate his great and unique career, or those of Sabathia and Wagner! Much more to come in my candidate-by-candidate breakdown...

Congratulations to Billy Wagner! Long-time coming and well deserved. When you track someone for 10 years, it's hard not to get invested in their candidacy!

Final Baseball Hall of Fame projections for the Class of 2025, with 213 BBWAA ballots in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker. I'm confident that it will include Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia, and Billy Wagner, but we'll have to wait to see if Carlos Beltrán joins them. Currently giving him a 1-in-3 shot.

A bunch of new public ballots came in this morning and Carlos Beltrán has picked up more ground. Latest projections with 206 votes in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker give him a median of 74.1% (95% confidence interval = 70.6%-77.7%) and he's being elected 30% of the time. Going to be a race to the finish!

Happy Hall of Fame election day from frosty Cooperstown. Join me, @Joelsherman1 @jonmorosi and our point guard, Brian Kenny, on @MLBNetwork at 2et! Then stay for the announcement at 6 et. And ICYMI, here's my ballot - and the column explaining it. www.nytimes.com/athletic/606...

Updated Hall of Fame projections with less than 24 hours to go and 188 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker. Beltrán's likelihood of being elected has slipped in the past 24 hours but he could still join Ichiro, Sabathia, and Wagner in Cooperstown if he slightly overperforms current trends

Re: Beltrán, now @ 80.6%. We've never had a candidate >=80% in the Tracker at the results announcement fail to be elected. However: 2024 Mauer - 83.4% to 76.1% (7.3% ⬇) 2020 Walker - 83.2% to 76.6% (6.6% ⬇) 2022 Ortiz - 83.4% to 77.9% (5.5% ⬇) And: 2023 Helton - 78.6% to 72.2% (6.4% ⬇, not elected)

I don't have time to post full Hall of Fame projections tonight, but Carlos Beltrán median is now 73% (95% confidence interval = 69%-78%) and he's reaching the 75% election cutoff in 24% of my model's simulations. Always fun to have an element of real suspense headed into the election reveal!

Great article by Theo about the trickiest aspect of my Hall of Fame projections. I'll add one thing: 10 private voters (14% of total) are affiliated with Elias Sports Bureau and we know nothing about their voting history. If they coordinate and vote as a bloc, that would majorly impact private %s.

Latest Baseball Hall of Fame projections with 152 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker. Carlos Beltrán's chances of joining Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia, and Billy Wagner have increased since last week, but his current add/drop trends still leave him on pace to finish in the low 70s.

With 119 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker, it's looking increasingly likely that the BBWAA will elect 3 players to the Baseball Hall of Fame on January 21. But Carlos Beltrán still has a chance of joining Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia, and Billy Wagner. My latest projections:

Here are my first set of projections for the 2025 Baseball Hall of Fame election, based on add/drop trends for the 92 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker. Looking likely that we'll have a three-person BBWAA class this year, but Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones also have an outside shot.

Most Stolen Bases since Rickey Henderson stole #939 on May 1st, 1991 to break Lou Brock’s record: 622 - Kenny Lofton 614 - Juan Pierre 517 - José Reyes 509 - Ichiro Suzuki 480 - Carl Crawford 470 - Jimmy Rollins 467 - RICKEY HENDERSON 465 - Eric Young Sr.

new @fangraphs.com: Russell Martin's elite pitch-framing puts him on par not only with the more heralded catchers of the era, but among the most valuable players (some actual MVP winners) for the 2006-16 span. The public didn't appreciate him the way the industry did, but he's Hallworthy.

Too early for projections, but CC Sabathia's name has been checked 14 times on the 15 public ballots from returning voters. Joe Mauer went 9/15 with the same crowd last year. Bodes well for CC's chances of being a first-ballot Hall of Famer!

My latest column: Five things to watch on the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot, including: How can Ichiro not be unanimous? www.nytimes.com/athletic/592...

This was a really fun conversation with @benlindbergh.bsky.social and @megrowler.bsky.social about Hall of Fame projections and related topics. Never been on a podcast before and I couldn't ask for two better hosts! blogs.fangraphs.com/effectively-...

Bit silly to post Hall of Fame projections when we'll find out the results in an hour, but here are mine with 217 ballots in @notmrtibbs.bsky.social's tracker. Billy Wagner's flip rate is slightly off the pace that he needs for election, but still lots of scenarios in which he reaches 75%.

Election eve ballots have been good for Todd Helton's Hall of Fame chances but not so good for Billy Wagner's. Current projections with 200 ballots in @notmrtibbs.bsky.social's Tracker.

Three days before Hall of Fame reveal day and here are my latest projections (with 185 ballots in @notmrtibbs.bsky.social's Tracker). Todd Helton's chances of election have decreased a bit since my last update while Billy Wagner's have improved slightly, but both remain right on the edge.

With 165 ballots in @notmrtibbs.bsky.social's Tracker, my model is confident that Adrián Beltré and Joe Mauer will be elected to the Hall of Fame one week from today. Helton is now on pace to join them but Billy Wagner is at risk of falling just short, although it could go either way for those two.

Updated Hall of Fame projections with 123 ballots in @notmrtibbs.bsky.social's Tracker. Mauer's chances of election remain very promising, but it looks like we'll be on the edge of our seat on Jan. 23 waiting to see if Helton or Wagner received enough votes to join Adrián Beltré in the Class of 2024

Quick upate with 105 public ballots in @notmrtibbs.bsky.social's Hall of Fame tracker: my model's median projection is now exactly 75% for Billy Wagner and 74.7% for Todd Helton. Can't get much closer than that!

I'm about to post my initial projections for the 2024 Baseball Hall of Fame Election. As in the past, my model uses 2023 results as a baseline, splits voters into different categories, and uses known 2024 ballots to project add/drops for each voter group.