Slightly diminish a book Meh Expectations

I wrote a piece for @Atlantic Council dispatches on Taiwan's KMT chairperson Cheng Li-wun's visit to Beijing, and what implication it may have for Taiwanese politics, US arms sales, and the upcoming Trump-Xi summit. www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/w...

We did a Taiwan Talks show on Myanmar's 'sham election', to discuss its electoral integrity, China's stakes in Burmese politics, and future of 🇲🇲 democracy movement With me were - Burmese scholar Nini Peng, - Soe Myint, co-founder of @mizzimadailynews.substack.com. www.youtube.com/watch?v=tT2f...

Great to talk about the significance of the latest scoop re onset of a US-Taiwan JFCC ("Joint Firepower Coordination Center") for Taiwan Plus. In discussion with me were 2 defense experts, Kitsch Liao, and Bryce Barros. - Blue-on-Blue - Deep Strike + Deterrence - Defense-Industrial cooperation

We recorded a talk show to discuss Canada-China reset amid rupture in US' relations with traditional friends and allies, from Taiwan's perspective. Charles Wu, Ronan Fu, and I explored the scope for middle power strategic autonomy & rebalancing btw US-China today. www.youtube.com/watch?v=pgFP...

I wrote about #Taiwan’s anxiety and opportunity as it reacts to the new U.S. National Defense Strategy, for the Atlantic Council. The NDS 2026 does not mention Taiwan even once. But when life gives you lemons, it’s time to make lemonade. www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/w...

Two global trading houses that brokered an opaque deal with the Trump admin this month to sell Venezuelan oil were previously prosecuted for bribery schemes involving oil sales elsewhere… A senior trader at Vitol donated $6 million to Trump’s 2024 election. www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

"Following the Ukraine-US meeting, Trump lauded Putin, saying the Russian president “wants to see Ukraine succeed”. This is becoming farcical giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... via @FT

You must react everyday to what is happening. But that is no way to write a book or a sentence. -James Baldwin, intv w Joe Walker, 1972

A solid majority (60%) of Americans now support direct US military commitment in the defense of #Taiwan, the latest 2025 Reagan National Defense Survey finds. That's up from 48% just a year ago. www.reaganfoundation.org/reagan-insti...

China's ongoing military purge is devastating its Navy and South China Sea forces, and fueling more grayzone coercion across South & Southeast Asias. Last week China's 3rd aircraft carrier the 'Fujian' officially entered service in Hainan Province, the closest province to maritime SE Asia. /1🧵

US used to rally allies to deter China together. Like Antony Blinken used to say, they "approached China from a position of strength (in numbers)". Now Europeans rush to accompany Zellensky as he meets Trump, also to help him "approach Trump from a position of strength" www.bbc.com/news/article...

Publication Day for Ghost Nation is July 17 - now only 45 days away. Pre-order today and be among the first to read Taiwan's story, as told by many of the people who have shaped this inspiring and vitally important country. www.panmacmillan.com/authors/chri...

Big news re Shangri-La Dialogue 2025: For the first time since 2019, Chinese Defense Minister will not be attending. China is allowing SLD25 to become US DefSec Pete Hegeseth’s one-man show, and it'll be a missed opportunity for US-China to stabilize ties amid uncertainty. Why? /1

Pleasure to do a show with my esteemed colleague and friend, Charles Wu, to discuss #Japan’s balancing act between Beijing and Washington, starting with Japanese PM Ishiba’s recent Southeast Asian charm offensive. www.youtube.com/watch?v=RAsM...

WELKER: Your secretary of state says everyone who's here, citizens and non-citizens, deserve due process. Do you agree? TRUMP: I don't know. I'm not a lawyer. I don't know. WELKER: Don't you need to uphold the Constitution? TRUMP: I don't know

1/6 As always, the idea that countries like Japan can use their massive holdings of US Treasuries as "leverage" in trade talks is a fantasy. For decades we have heard similar warnings from other countries, and yet no one ever uses this leverage. www.ft.com/content/912f...

I gave some comments to @BBC on how Trump and Xi Jinping can find ways to re-engage and rein in the trade war. Neither side is going to get 100% of what they want. So finding an off-ramp while preserving face requires both sides to be willing to show some degree of constructive ambiguity. 🧵 /1

"and seek dialogue based on equality, respect and mutual benefit,” Guo added. “Any claims about the progress of China-US trade negotiations are groundless as trying to catch the wind and have no factual basis,” the Commerce Ministry said the same day. open.substack.com/pub/dexter/p/t

SCOOP: A young man with no government experience who hasn’t even finished his undergrad degree is working for Elon Musk’s DOGE at the Department of Housing and Urban Development and has been tasked with using AI to rewrite the agency’s rules and regulations.

Live streams of Canadian election night coverage: CBC: youtube.com/watch?v=SATB... CTV: youtube.com/watch?v=kWUG... Global News: youtube.com/watch?v=tHOF...

Bluesky does not suppress posts with external links like X, and there is a massive difference in engagement on posts with external links between the two apps. Elon wants you to stay on X and never leave.

How to circumvent Trump's tariffs against Chinese goods that are "Made in China":

1/8 This Caixin article summarizes various proposals by Chinese academics on how to respond to Trump's tariffs. Most of these proposals focus on boosting domestic demand, but some involve expanding "free-trade" relationships with other countries, which... www.caixinglobal.com/2025-04-18/i...

5/5 Either we need a trading regime in which countries don't compete by suppressing domestic demand, or one in which the US (and the UK and Canada) stop accommodating global savings imbalances through their open financial markets.

China Raises Tariffs on U.S. Imports to 125%, matching Trump's move from a day ago, and claims it will ignore any further increases announced by Trump from here. What's happening? China is trying to do 3 things: /1

The irony. #China holds top-level "Periphery Working Conference" today to build economic ties with its neighbors (mainly Central & SE Asian) to consolidate its backyard. Meanwhile US is alienating its own backyard, by antagonizing Canada & Mexico in ways not seen in over 100 yrs.

On #TariffWar: today China's official Xinhua News Agency's unofficial scoop account unveils 6 measures Beijing is planning to take to retaliate against Trump's additional 50% tariff threat. Which six measures? /1 www.sohu.com/a/881202172_...

China and the US are "locked into a game of chicken" with tariffs and counter tariffs, said @wentisung.bsky.social . “Like two race cars driving directly toward each other, whoever swerves first will stand to lose prestige and profit". www.theguardian.com/world/2025/a...

Trump has threatened #China with an extra 50% tariff. US and China are locked in a game of chicken, like 2 race cars driving directly toward each other, whoever swerves first will stand to lose prestige and profit. What is China thinking at the moment? /1 🧵

I am quoted in @nytimes.com, re China holding live-fire military drills near Taiwan, code-named "Strait Thunder 2025-A". China is trying to test US support for Taiwan. If US defaults back to a transactionalist noncommittal posture, it will instill US-skepticism among US friends.../1

价值观的完整统一，立场的清晰稳定，知行合一，能够坚持敦厚善良仁义正直，不见利就上不知难而退，不慕强不趋炎附势，不首鼠两端，不过于精明算计，养吾浩然正气。此之为人。

🚨New online! @brendanktaylor.bsky.social queries the narrative that Australia has resigned itself to being a dependent ally of the U.S in "Australian agency and the China-US contest for supremacy". ⬇️ #openaccess #academicpublishing #internationalrelations #Australia tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10....

China's MFA being #SchrodingersCat? 3/4 "If war is what the U.S. wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re #ready to fight till the end” 3/6 "Whatever kind of war it is, a tariff war or a trade war, a cold war or a hot war, they should #not be fought and cannot be won"

"What's the point anymore of questioning whether China is partial towards Russia? If that is a problem for people, they should first go criticize America. Because now America is not only partial to, but actively supports, Russia. Am I right?" - China's special envoy for Europe, #LuShaye

In light of the changes in foreign policy that the U.S. has implemented since President Donald Trump returned to the White House in January, @wentisung.bsky.social said China will try to “project an image of continuity and certainty” in terms of foreign policy during the Two Sessions.

As a chronically anxious perfectionist, I always feel that I come up short, that I could & should do more & be better. I've always envied my husband who just *does not* do this. Last night, (after 15 years of marriage), he explained his secret: "It's "W.A.R"" he said, "Wins Above Replacement." 🧵

Really delighted to have had the chance to talk to Anthony Kao for the @newbooksnetwork.bsky.social podcast with my co-author @catielila.bsky.social about our book "Revolutionary Taiwan: Making nationhood in a changing world order". newbooksnetwork.com/revolutionar...

We did a show on Australia-China relations of late, including on why China's PLA is holding military exercises near AUS, plus China-NZ-Cook Islands ties. I was mainly just happy that I got to drop a reference to Thucydides' History of the Peloponnesian War on TV. www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7F4...

A kiss on the forehead-erases misery. I kiss your forehead. A kiss on the eyes-lifts sleeplessness. I kiss your eyes. A kiss on the lips-is a drink of water. I kiss your lips. A kiss on the forehead-erases memory. -Marina Tsvetaeva t. @ilyakaminsky.bsky.social /Jean Valentine #everynightapoem

Starting to see a pattern: Trump makes some stupid threats; others offer trivial concessions; Trump declares (sham) victory; underlying problems remain unsolved. Next phase: others start making alternative arrangements and renege, knowing his attention span is short, & some of them call his bluff.

"During Trump’s first-term, Beattie worked as a speech writer but was fired in 2018 after attending a conference with White nationalists. Two year later, Trump appointed to him to the Commission for the Preservation of American Heritage Abroad." www.newsbreak.com/mediaite-520...

“For the typical American household, the tariffs will mean a loss of about $1,200 in purchasing power, according to the Budget Lab at Yale University, a nonpartisan research center.” www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

Here comes China's retaliatory tariffs.

“If we have tit-for-tat retaliation, whether it's 25% tariff (or) 60% and we go to where we were in the 1930s we're going to see double-digit global GDP losses. That's catastrophic. Everyone will pay.” WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala last week. www.reuters.com/markets/trad...

Colombian President Gustavo Petro's full post ordering an increase of import tariffs on U.S. goods, says he doesn't really like traveling to the U.S. because it's “a bit boring” and invokes the ancestors

China's Finance Ministry had just issued Christmas presents for everybody. On 12/24's National Finance Work Conference, China's Minister of Finance Lan called for: - "increase fiscal deficit rate & issue ever greater govt bonds" - to "stimulate consumption and optimize expenditure structure".

This is another case -like the election of John Thune over Trump's favorite Rick Scott as Senate GOP leader-, where the less partisan choice may have prevailed because of the secret ballot. That's a somewhat paradoxically and normatively interesting result, to say the least.

“As a foreign correspondent in #china, it was a weird feeling that you really need to be more of a sociologist/anthropologist rather than this hard-nosed driven journalist.” #wangxiaobo chinabooksreview.com/2024/12/10/p... @iandenisjohnson.bsky.social @vivianwu.bsky.social @heliuleo.bsky.social