I don't find this essay by Matt Kroenig @foreignpolicy.com persuasive. There is little evidence Beijing seeks to copy or replace US global primacy. Meanwhile, Trump has done more damage to the US global network of alliances than China has in the past 1.5 years. foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/22/c...

“Given Indonesia’s highly strategic geographic position...this partnership will inevitably influence the dynamics of US-China competition. It is also likely to create a domino effect, accelerating geopolitical polarisation in Southeast Asia." www.channelnewsasia.com/world/indone...

#Myanmar's new military gov is quickly solidifying ties with 🇹🇭 & 🇨🇳 with back-to-back visits from Thai FM Sihasak & Chinese FM Wang Yi. Min Aung Hlaing is also rumored to be visiting Beijing in May: www.facebook.com/theirrawaddy... www.narinjara.com/news/detail/... www.gnlm.com.mm/thai-deputy-...

I shared some thoughts @deutschewelle.dw.com on 🇻🇳 politics under To Lam: "Vietnam is far from a progressive democracy, but it lacks some of the totalitarian repression that China relies on more regularly for the Chinese Communist Party and Xi Jinping's political survival." www.dw.com/en/is-to-lam...

Like so many others in an administration defined by malevolence, incompetence, and corruption, Kash Patel has always been in over his head: www.theatlantic.com/politics/202...

"Iran’s ability to frustrate a superior military underscores that determined defenders, armed with the right mix of asymmetric capabilities and resilient command structures, can deny even the most powerful adversaries a quick or decisive victory." www.nytimes.com/2026/04/17/w...

Insightful piece by Rahman Yaacob, who writes @lowyinstitute.bsky.social, "strategic autonomy must be underpinned by a coherent framework that guides decision-making and communicates intent." #Indonesia www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

I shared some thoughts with @the-independent.com on the #Myanmar military’s faux transition to civilian rule & what we can expect from Min Aung Hlaing’s successor Ye Win Oo: www.independent.co.uk/asia/southea...

Exactly the kind of mental framework policymakers in Washington should be considering WRT SE Asia: www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/southea...

I highly recommend this episode of the Ezra Klein Show ft. @suzannemaloney.bsky.social on the latest state of play in #Iran @ezraklein.bsky.social podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...

This is why we can't have nice things.

No surprise former Sr. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing has become #Myanmar's president following recent sham elections. Such a tragedy that his path to the presidency came at such a massive toll for the 🇲🇲 people: 90,000+ dead, 6,000+ civilians killed, 1/2 population in poverty. www.nytimes.com/2026/04/03/w...

A really useful overview of Southeast Asia's position in global #semiconductor manufacturing & how particular countries are faring in the chips race @thediplomat.com: thediplomat.com/2026/03/who-...

Marcos on the question of a "reset" with China: “I think it’s certainly going to happen, it’s happening now.” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Very good essay by Jessica Liao & Zenel Garcia in @foreignaffairs.com: "Ultimately, Southeast Asia’s fate rests on its own institutions. Without stronger governance, a firmer rule of law, and more effective regulation, the region will suffer." www.foreignaffairs.com/china/china-...

Have we learned nothing from the past half century of failed ground invasions overseas? 🤯

Another consultative council, another long acronym. There have been many throughout #Myanmar's history. Call me cynical but it is increasingly difficult to see a viable path to resistance victory over the military. They need technical, financial & logistical support: www.facebook.com/NUGmyanmar/p...

Obama’s dictum, “don’t do stupid shit,” much ridiculed at the time, looks pretty wise in retrospect. Obama got a lot of flack for the surge in Afghanistan & for failing to enforce his “red line” in Syria, but his instinct to avoid protracted military conflicts in the Middle East was sound.

“On the issue of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, only 29 percent of respondents in the Amherst poll said they supported Trump’s handling of strikes against Iran. Sixty-three percent disapproved of his job on this issue.” thehill.com/homenews/adm...

"Though there is still a regional belief that the United States is a benign and stabilising power in Southeast Asia, ...even in Singapore, this belief is slowly but surely starting to fray." #Singapore rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publica...

This is how the US loses SE Asia, gradually at first, then all of a sudden. By repeatedly launching unilateral destabilizing attacks and relying on economic coercion (i.e., tariffs), we are rapidly burning through goodwill and regional influence: www.nst.com.my/news/nation/...

Anecdotally, at the 2026 International Studies Association conference I’m told that participation is 40% lower than expected this year. I’m hearing from colleagues around the world who simply don’t want to come to the United States right now.

Lifting sanctions on Iranian oil signals Trump’s lack of resolve prosecuting this war of choice. Why give up the one economic lever that has been most successful in weakening Tehran? Doing so cedes leverage & makes clear U.S. doesn’t have the stomach to sustain a war: www.nytimes.com/2026/03/19/u...

Beijing’s message will resonate in a region that has rapidly grown disillusioned with an increasingly unilateral and erratic United States: www.reuters.com/business/ene...

“If confirmed, Malaysia would become the first country to withdraw from a “reciprocal” trade deal with the Trump administration.” thediplomat.com/2026/03/conf...

“by focusing on its own rare earth capabilities rather than the U.S.-led coalitions, Vietnam aims to enhance its economic leverage without formally aligning with any geopolitical bloc.” thediplomat.com/2026/03/viet...

“Demand.” 😆

"Top Trump officials acknowledged to lawmakers during recent classified briefings that they did not plan for the possibility of Iran closing the strait in response to strikes." www.cnn.com/2026/03/12/p...

This short ep from @vanjackson.bsky.social is worth your while. Van pokes holes in the narrative that war against #Iran comes at the expense of America’s military preparedness for a war against China in the Pacific: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...

Pretty astounding listening to Nadia Schadlow trying to pin strategy to the Trump administration’s chaotic & reactive series of choices on #Iran. FAFO more accurately describes the attacks & attempt at regime change. Kudos @ezrakleinbot.bsky.social for pushing her: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...

Trump: All of the people that died through the roadside bombs. Died and are right now walking around with no legs.

"Professionalism recognizes that your job is bigger than you are...It understands that a sturdy institution requires a code of conduct. And it sweats details, because if you get enough of those wrong, you get nothing at all right." www.nytimes.com/2026/03/09/o...

“The junta’s recent election was an attempt at renewal, but it has been at best a tawdry makeover.” Great piece by Ben Dunant: fulcrum.sg/myanmars-ele...

"Without a coherent framework, ambiguity risks shifting from a policy tool into an illusion of control: the belief that Indonesia remains firmly in charge in Natuna even as Chinese activities persist with limited pushback." #Indonesia www.9dashline.com/article/the-...

Indonesia may be realizing the drawbacks to Prabowo’s recent charm offensive seeking to ingratiate himself with the Trump administration. I expect we might see some recalibration in coming weeks: www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...

A number of our allies & partners have provisions in basing agreements & defense cooperation MOUs re: the rotation/stationing of US military. If we start violating the treaties that underpin our worldwide defense diplomacy, allies & partners will hedge by seeking arrangements w/ other countries.

This statement is soo Singapore: "Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan on Friday told parliament that Singapore would not act as a proxy for any major power, stressing that the city state must be prepared to “courteously stand up and say no”." #Singapore www.scmp.com/week-asia/po...

"When the Philippines accepts arrangements that treat China as having operational or legal standing in areas within the Philippine EEZ, it risks contributing to the normalization of Beijing’s nine-dash line narrative." Ping @9dashline.com globalnation.inquirer.net/310987/china...

The pivot to Asia is dead. Long live the pivot to West Asia!

"Singapore enforces Beijing’s technology controls and Washington’s compliance protocols, bending to both sides’ contradictory demands as long as deals keep flowing. The Manus investigation tests whether this tightrope walk is sustainable." www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

“If the United States finds itself in the future with fewer and far less committed friends, it will have no one but itself to blame.” www.cfr.org/articles/wil...

“The real test ahead is whether ASEAN can translate its principled non‑recognition into a more politically astute strategy of conditional engagement that alleviates civilian suffering without rewarding the Myanmar junta’s impunity.” Useful ideas @sharonseah.bsky.social: fulcrum.sg/beyond-non-r...