It’s 9am TFT time here, and citizens are already gathering to protest Tariffs by the United States. Our plain clothes Officer Penguins are attempting to maintain calm, but unfortunately we keep losing them in the crowd.

NEW: We obtained new US proposal. The Trump admin is pushing to gain sweeping control over all of Ukraine’s major minerals and energy assets, while offering Kyiv no security guarantees, in an aggressive expansion of previous demands. w/ @paolatamma.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/896d...

5 marca 1940 roku w Moskwie zapadła decyzja o wymordowaniu ponad 22 tysięcy polskich jeńców wojennych. Pamięć o kłamstwie i zbrodni katyńskiej niech będzie przestrogą dla świata. Nazywajmy zawsze rzeczy po imieniu: zbrodnia jest zbrodnią, ofiara - ofiarą, agresor - agresorem.

In der jüngsten Ausgabe der #Polen-Analysen beschäftigt sich @ervitz.bsky.social mit der gegenseitigen Wahrnehmung von Polen und Ukrainern. Absolut lesenswert! laender-analysen.de/polen-analys...

Compromising with Putin at Ukraine’s expense is effectively a compromise at the expense of Euro-Atlantic security, writes Igor Gretskiy. Putin intends to exploit Trump’s eagerness for a quick deal to strangle Ukraine using Washington’s hands.

Quick recommendation. Euroclear holds 160 bln € of Russian assets, now is the time to stop inventing legal hurdles but to confiscate and allocate those resources for priorities defined below.

ICYMI: Based on high-resolution satellite images, we investigated Russian military bases bordering Poland & the Baltic countries. In Kaliningrad, Russian GRU special forces are trained for sabotage attacks. In Belarus, a new nuclear threat is building up. vsquare.org/russia-m...

🤦When will Europe learn from its past mistakes? It's Russia who gambled and lost its game of weaponization. Going back to business as usual on energy will not incentivise Russia to come to the negotiating table, but encourage it to double down on its maximalist goals in UA www.ft.com/content/a19a...

Russian gas addicts want another hit. First, not going to happen. Second, how incredibly naive. I know there are Germans/Hungarians that are desperate for this but the EU doesn’t have to indulge in nonsense. Does the EU enjoy looking idiotic? on.ft.com/4hlAUXR

Dragging anchor across seabed for 100 miles must have been an accident & anomalies in behavior, i.e. multiple U-turns, must have been caused by the charm of the Baltic nature. Sherlocks of @washingtonpost.com in action or implementation of political order. What would anonymous sources say?

This is big. The director for Vulnerabilities and Resilience at the joint NATO-EU Hybrid Centre of Excellence, whose expertise includes maritime affairs, completely trashes the Washington Post article about the recent incidents in the Baltic Sea.

A long thread on the war and the current situation. Although the worst-case scenarios didn’t materialize in 2024, it was the most difficult period since spring 2022. There were positive developments, and bright spots, but the current trajectory is negative. 1/

There are lots of people enabling Russia's shadow fleet (not least the owners of these rust buckets). Let's name them (and many of them will be shamed). thetimes.com/comment/colu... (Me @thetimes.com)

Soviet and Russian gas flowed through Ukraine for 56 years. Until today. The German-Austrian concept of changing Russia by building “interdependence” has failed. Historical photo from Sept 1, 1968 - the launch of the first Soviet gas deliveries to Austria.👇

🇷🇺🕵️ As Russian sabotage attacks in the Baltic region escalate, I’d like to recommend one of our most significant recent stories—a comprehensive mapping of Russian military bases and hybrid threats in the Baltics, backed by satellite imagery and insights from military and national security experts.

Belarus has named a list of candidates who will simulate competition in Lukashenko's presidential election. t.me/c/1377735387...

🧵It was a privilege to be part of this endeavor. Thank you @libmod.de & @oswpl.bsky.social I encourage you to read the entire report that covers political, military, economic and societal domains, and calls for paradigm shift. Below is just a summary of my take 1/ libmod.de/en/the-russi...

Odd - I don’t remember Kellogg criticising the assassination of IRGC General Soleimani by the US, though the US wasn’t even at war with Iran, unlike UA/RU. If Russia doesn’t want Ukraine to kill its generals, it should end its illegal occupation of Ukrainian territory & negotiate peace.

Leave it to Quincy Inst. shills (Lieven) recommending "grand bargains" between imperial "great powers" at the expense of the victims of a genocidal invasion and casting it as "peace." The mask, if there ever was one, is fully off. foreignpolicy.com/2024/12/16/u...

Together with colleagues on the absolute urgency for the EU to respond decisively against the GD government and in support of society to the escalating violence in Georgia www.euractiv.com/section/glob...

Update. A larger number of Russian transport aircraft can now be seen at Khmeimim. The S-400 battery is packing up for transport. The tactical aviation is still there, but there is a withdrawal under way.

1/ Georgia’s democratic future hangs by a thread. Its progress was derailed by a 'foreign agent law' in 2024. The government has suspended EU accession until 2028—a direct violation of Georgia's constitution—and is using force to crush pro-EU protests. 🧵

Almost the end of a 56-year energy relation between Moscow and Vienna. Yes, it started as long ago as 1968. Future indirect purchases through intermediaries aren't fully ruled out, but the ball-and-chain of the 25-year contract that OMV signed in 2006 is finally broken. www.omv.com/en/media/pre...

This post provokes strong reactions, least of which is the difference between the Russian and English versions, with content for the respective audiences. Lamenting RU expenditures & casualties in Syria in the Russian version plays politics when there are no politics in Russia to play.

Zapraszamy na środowy Wywiad Polityczny. Gośćmi programu będą: 17:00 @marekborowski.bsky.social @platforma.bsky.social 17:20 @patrykwachowiec.bsky.social @fundacjafor.bsky.social 17:40 @ervitz.bsky.social @mieroszewskipl.bsky.social Do usłyszenia!

Kellogg’s plan (campaign-oriented in its rhetoric) relied on faith in the "transactional" model, which has a fundamental flaw. Portrayed as grounded in realism, it assumes that Russian political-strategic culture has internalized the principle of „pacta sunt servanda”. Naïve idealism at best.

The primary goal of sanctions isn't coercion, it's constraining. The objective of sanctions is kept at a low level: to degrade Russia's abilities to fund the war and its technological capabilities. The problem with the policy of degrading is that it has no benchmarks and no endgame.

„We are simply to polite „ www.politico.eu/article/euro...

1000 days of war - where do we stand and what's next? 1. Russians are advancing slowly and with heavy losses, but they haven't even captured the entire Donbas yet. 2. No, Ukraine isn't on the verge of a frontal collapse in the coming months. The Ukrainians still have something to shoot at and

If anything brings peace closer, it's the U.S. approval for Ukrainian missile strikes deep into Russia, rather than the German Chancellor's calls to Putin. Russia is provoked by weakness, not strength.

Russian opposition strategy towards the West: “Do not ask us what we can do for Russia, ask us what you can do for us”.

Olaf Scholz is proud “to have avoided escalation” by his prudent support of Ukraine. He called Putin to tell him he is „not achieving his war aims“ and needs to talk peace. The result: one of the worst attacks on Ukraine yet. This type “escalation management is escalatory”.

🚨 The EU’s anti-fraud office, OLAF, has launched an investigation into a loophole that allows countries like Turkey to rebrand sanctioned Russian oil for export to the EU. This scheme reportedly helped Moscow earn up to €3 billion from Turkish ports in a year. www.politico.eu/article/eu-f...

Hoping for a place where the signal will drown out the background noise. As they say in Poland "hope is the morher of fools", nonetheless hope springs eternal.