Late to this important & nicely nuanced @resfoundation.bsky.social report on the future of the pension settlement 20 years after the Turner report. Great work by @mollybroome.bsky.social & @ianmulheirn.bsky.social www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

‘China’s export boom can hardly be called protectionist’. Wonder whether @michaelpettis.bsky.social would agree with this description in this weekend’s FT leader

This pic from Obstfeld's recent NBER paper captures what I meant about the impact of savings policy on the current account deficit @curr.bsky.social (also of interest @johnspringford.bsky.social). If shift the savings schedule out in 'home', r drops, CA imbalance disappears

I'm sure it need fixing, but this housing story would be much less exciting if it mentioned the actual rate of household growth this century (c.150k/yr) and ONS projections of 160k/yr At roughly 220k/yr, net additions have far exceeded those rates over the past decade www.ft.com/content/1977...

My latest bit for the Observer - why the Tories' hardline immigration policies won't win over British voters www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

NEW: Generation Rent's new rent forecast is just out on ITV news We show that rents are likely to rise more than 14% above next April's Local Housing Allowance levels within just 18 months, taking affordability back to current unsustainable levels   www.itv.com/news/2023-12...

This is very good

There's big politics here. If the OBR were to downgrade potential output growth by 0.1% from the current 1.6% that would take about £10bn off the chancellor's fiscal headroom. If they were to split the difference with the Bank's view of 0.7-0.8%, the Budget would be *very* difficult

V good. If the OBR decide they were too optimistic in time for the March budget then Sunak and Hunt will have a real (self-imposed) problem.

What happens when one of your official forecasters is systematically optimistic and the other pessimistic about growth? Bad stuff. My blog argues we have lopsided macroeconomic policy because the Bank and OBR disagree - leading to lower growth and higher debt than we would have if they agreed.

This is a very good piece by @ianmulheirn.bsky.social - on how the very different Bank (pessimistic) and OBR (optimistic) forecasts of economic growth are a problem. Quick thread… medium.com/@ian.mulheir...

Autumn Statement press reports told us headroom increased from 1st to final versions of the forecast from roughly -£20bn to +£30bn What caused the shift? Gilt yields fairly steady since late summer. Was it upward revisions to the inflation forecast? Something else?

Great stuff from @rafaelbehr.bsky.social Big picture is that 13 years’ economic stagnation has destroyed the centre right. Now set for a fight between radical econ liberals, nativists and fatalists www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Immigration and housing is political 🧨 There's been some hyperbole about today's +670k immigration and housing costs. But DONT PANIC! Here's why: 1st look at the past 24 years. Generally population has grown slower than housing stock. Houses per person are +2.7% over 2000-22

“The real story is that the government has effectively raided the budgets of public services to fund an equally large tax cut. And since the previous departmental spending plans were widely believed to be undeliverable, there’s no question that the new ones are implausible.”

5 take-aways from today's Autumn Statement medium.com/@ian.mulheir...

Autumn Statement headlines will be dominated by policy measures that won't be hugely consequential in the grand scheme But behind them will lie several judgements that will materially what life in the UK will be like by the end of the decade. 3 things to look out for...🧵

Maude's review proposes taking departmental spending control out of the Treasury: 👍if you think HMT control cuts cross-government collaboration, over-centralises or creates excessive risk aversion (eg on preventative spend) 👎if you think it reduces control over spending and hampers coordination

This is a fairly dire picture - wellbeing measures at pandemic lows. There's been a 5.5% increase in number of adults reporting medium/high anxiety since before the pandemic. That's about 2.9 million more people www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

Increasingly clear we've unbalanced the politics of public spending Pre-2010, govs could make spend plans look viable by massaging economic forecasts. Now the OBR stops that, so fantasy spending plans make the numbers stack up. More politically potent Needs an institutional fix to rebalance it

Missed this at the time, but 'ONS merch' and tote bags to get people to respond to surveys?! I mean I'd love an ONS tote bag but suspect I'm in a minority... Surely we can do better than this to get households to respond?

My column this week for the @financialtimes.com is about the different ways we have of measuring r*. It's a bit mean of me to say that none of them are good - it's a really *really* hard thing to measure... www.ft.com/content/3c20...

Sobering picture from the Bank. Look at that projection for household consumption! It makes the 2010s look like a land of milk and honey Also concerning given our investment needs as a country: if investment is to rise household consumption will probably end up even lower. Let's hope it's wrong

Remember, None Of This Was Dom's Fault. thecritic.co.uk/keeping-the-...

One of my favourite charts from our RF mini report today on regional wealth: People have a much higher proportion of pension wealth in areas where house prices are low

It's Friday and are you: a) a wizz with data? b) have monetary policy (analytical) experience? c) keen to work in serious journalism? We have the perfect job for you at the FT Apply now! boards.eu.greenhouse.io/financialtim...

@helentbiz.bsky.social is right - renewing help to buy mortgage guarantee now won't do much and to the extent it would, comes at the wrong moment But we should learn the lessons of post-2008 and get a bigger scheme in place after prices adjust to prevent FTBs being locked out again

Welcome @andywestwood.bsky.social for FE, skills, local/regional devolution, politics and general wisdom

Well, this is a cheery thread!

After the election there's going to be a fiscal hole to fill. How big though? A *very* fag-packet calculation suggests whoever wins needs £30-40bn just to keep the show on the road - unless something turns up Some thinking aloud...🧵

In a bleak mood which may affect this assessment of where we are with Hamas-Israel War. Trying to look beyond the controversies over the hospital tragedy and to see whether there are any diplomatic possibilities. open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/isr…

Also from green budget - not a new chart, but at what point does 'the party of public services' cease to be a thing and instead we have a 'party of the NHS' vs a 'party of *other* public services'? Is hypothecation the (only) way to avoid that?

Who's going to pay for my state pension?! (From IFS today)

IT'S OUT - AND FREE TO READ My first newsletter is on what I told Ben Bernanke (former Fed chair) about how the broken Bank of England needs to change its forecasting and communication Sign up to the newsletter here t.co/9W1LiN2e7a 1/ www.ft.com/content/913d...