🆕 Free online course on private enterprise, productivity & economic growth by STEG & PEDL (@cepr.org) Through 14 lectures, you can learn from leading researchers on one of the central questions of economic development, how to increase productivity. Register here: cepr-org.zoom.us/meeting/regi...

Population aging creates room for the government to increase debt without increasing interest rates. But a large eventual fiscal adjustment is still needed to pay for entitlements, from Adrien Auclert, Hannes Malmberg, Matthew Rognlie, and Ludwig Straub www.nber.org/papers/w34470

Boot camp in Behavioral Macro is back! where: Cambridge, Massachusetts when: May 14–15, 2026 who is eligible: full-time PhD students at a US or Canadian university #EconSky

In a new working paper, my co-authors Knut Are Aastveit, @jesper-bojeryd.bsky.social, Magnus Andreas Haare Gulbrandsen, @ragnarjuelsrud.bsky.social and I investigate "What do 12 billion card transactions say about house prices and consumption". www.norges-bank.no/en/news-even...

🚀 I'm on the #EconSky Job Market! My JMP asks a classic question: Do large, dominant firms foster or hinder innovation? To study this, I turn to the Great Merger Wave (1895–1904), when >2,600 U.S. firms combined into corporate giants like U.S. Steel and DuPont. A JMP 🧵👇 (1/13)

Macro outcomes depend on the distribution of markups across firms/time, making firm-level markup estimates key for macro analysis. Firm data with wide coverage primarily comes from financial statements. Can markups be accurately estimated with such data? buff.ly/tgD0OID

Dropping a beta version of this page while everyone is up and processing baseball! This tool lets you search the full text of papers from the American Economic Review, American Economic Journal series, and over 30,000 NBER working papers. paulgp.com/econlit-pipe...

Many of the 'facts' that travel the furthest from economic research are based on a flawed method of scaling cross-sectional estimates to the aggregate. @benmoll.bsky.social and I have written about this 'missing intercept' problem, and what economists can do about it, here ⤵️

Log-linear relative asset demand (the basis of Demand System Asset Pricing) is shown to represent a radical deviation from traditional investment and asset pricing models, from Narayana R. Kocherlakota www.nber.org/papers/w34395

CFM congratulates Philippe Aghion who has been awarded the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. Professor Aghion was awarded the prize jointly with Joel Mokyr from Northwestern University and Peter Howitt from Brown University “for having explained innovation-driven economic growth.”

Macro PhD students in London: Register to attend our PhD workshop at LSE on 14 November! We have a great programme of PhD presentations and lots of time to get to know your London-based colleagues. See the provisional programme and register here: sites.google.com/view/london-...

Scientific Modeling Cheatsheet: #MATLAB vs #Python vs #Julialang Side-by-side comparison for: • Differential equations • Optimization • Automatic differentiation • Symbolic computing • More! Highlights ecosystem differences & best practices. sciml.github.io/Scientific_M...

Our paper provides a method to estimate demand elasticities and infer quality change in settings beyond the CES preferences. Applying method to US imports, we show official measures of inflation in import prices are upward biased bc they don’t account for quality improvements.

🚨We're delighted to announce our next seminar! Rebecca Diamond will be presenting "Where is Standard of Living the Highest? Local Prices and the Geography of Consumption" with a discussion by Cristian Badarinza When? 🗓️ Friday 3rd October 15:30-17:00 BST Register here tinyurl.com/mrnbu48w

NEW EPISODE: We speak to the legend Emi Nakamura about her paper at Jackson Hole about why and when central banks can deviate from Taylor Rule orthodoxy and still achieve good inflation outcomes. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/e...

If you're interested in learning #JuliaLang and are currently an #RStats user (or even if you're not!), then here's a little introduction to getting started! 📊 Blog post: nrennie.rbind.io/blog/introdu... #QuartoPub #Julia @tidierjl.bsky.social

🚨 Breaking news 🚨 Two epic tutorials announced for #JuliaCon Local Paris 2025: one about Pluto notebooks and one about using JuMP for optimization. Be sure to get your tickets this week, otherwise the early bird pricing will be gone 🦜 @juliacon.bsky.social @julialang.org @pydataparis.bsky.social

📢 #CallForPapers STEG Annual Conference & Theme Workshops - Jan 2026 Deadline: 31 August 2025 | Location & Date TBC The 6th Annual STEG Conference will showcase keynote talks, academic & policy panels, projects, & recent papers related to structural transformation mailchi.mp/cepr.org/ste... #EconSky

I've been working on a new tool, Refine, to make scholars more productive. If you're interested in being among the very first to try the beta, please read on. Refine leverages the best current AI models to draw your attention to potential errors and clarity issues in research paper drafts. 1/

Calling all Macro PhD students based in and around London! Join us for a workshop at LSE on 14 Nov to get to know each other and discuss your research. Submit your papers by August 15! sites.google.com/view/london-... #EconSky

Revisions to economic statistics are not manipulation. Initial numbers should be very current, so they go to bed before all the data are in. Final numbers should be very accurate. /1

We are collaborating with the @eeanews.bsky.social for a third year in a row. EEA Replication Games in Bordeaux, France on August 24. Virtual participation is possible and the focus is on economics papers for this event! Register here: www.surveymonkey.ca/r/Replicatio...

Recently accepted to #REStud, "Estimating Welfare Effects in a Nonparametric Choice Model: The Case of School Vouchers," from Kamat and Norris: www.restud.com/estimating-w... #econsky

Announcing the #ASSA2026 AEA/AFA Joint Luncheon speaker, Tarun Ramadorai of Imperial College London. He will be speaking about his work on household finance and personal finance markets. bsky.app/profile/tram...

We just finalized the program for this year's @nber.org Summer Institute session on Macro Public Finance: www.nber.org/conferences/... Join us on July 17! @s-stantcheva.bsky.social @dirkkruegerier.bsky.social

Thrilled to have my research feature at @unu-wider.bsky.social’s amazing WIDERAngle blog! Brazil's Bolsa Familia - the world's largest cash transfer programme - does not discourage work. Instead, it increases women's employment by helping them overcome barriers to enter the labour force 👇

New open-access data for econ nerds: Causal Claims in Economics 🔓 250k+ claims made in 45k papers and 69 variable over 1980-2024. Now free to download. 🥳 Details below

New blackbox global optimization benchmarks shows that the #julialang BlackBoxOptim.jl (BBO) outperforms the classic C-based NLopt on a wide array of difficult optimization problems. See the benchmarks for more details: docs.sciml.ai/SciMLBenchma... #optimization #machinelearning #C #python

"Firm exits can trigger cascades of shutdown. New work studies how these cascades propagate and their impact on aggregate fluctuations." Recently accepted to #REStud, from Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel @mathtd.bsky.social: www.restud.com/cascades-and... #EconSky

"We are thrilled to share that our latest research is now published in #REStud! 🎉Check it out here: www.restud.com/a-q-theory-o... We look forward to hearing your thoughts! " From Begenau, Bigio, Majerovitz, and Vieyra

The next @inet-complexity.bsky.social Seminar Series event is with Benjamin Moll (LSE) on Wednesday 4 June 2025 @ 2:30pm BST (Hybrid) 🔗https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/events/the-trouble-with-rational-expectations-in-heterogeneous-agent-models #EconSky

Hello Friends! I'm on the job market now! I have a oodles of knowledge for all the software performance engineering tricks in Rust, Julia and other systems languages and would love to work with teams that are looking to skill up in those respects, from back ends to big data crunching!

CALL FOR PAPERS: Conference on "Families in Macroeconomics" on September 11 and 12, 2025 in Edesheim Castle (in the wine region close to Mannheim). We welcome theoretical, empirical, and quantitative work related to family economics. Submit by April 30! Details here: bit.ly/44nFyko #EconSky

"National Elections Database," including the results of 1,023 presidential and 2,962 parliamentary elections conducted worldwide since 1946! From @vinpons.bsky.social, Marx and Rollet. The companion paper: www.restud.com/electoral-tu... #EconSky #Elections

In "Some Pleasant Sequence-Space Arithmetic in Continuous Time" with Shlok Goyal we derive new formulas and algorithms to solve continuous time heterogeneous agent models with sequence-space methods. It is 3 times faster than discrete time! Code/github: shorturl.at/tcL7A Paper: shorturl.at/K2jIq

I couldn't agree more! The excessive focus on linearized solutions to HA models is a bit like the old joke about the drunk who is looking for a key under a lamppost because that's where the light is. More discussion of why we need non-linear models and ways forward here benjaminmoll.com/challenge/

Recently accepted to @reveconstudies.bsky.social, "Industrial Policy Implementation: Empirical Evidence from China’s Shipbuilding Industry" from Barwick, Kalouptsidi and Bin Zahur: www.restud.com/industrial-p...

PLEASE RT :) Submit to the annual Network Science and Economics Conference, the largest US event for network theory and empirical research in and adjacent to economics Deadline Jan 30 (soon!) Conference Apr 11-13 at Stanford

13 big stories we'll be covering on Odd Lots in 2025. In the newsletter today, @tracyalloway.bsky.social and I took a stab at anticipating this year's big topics.

That said, I think something about this story should worry you (and it worries me). Most of these errors were found because the theorem being proved was wrong. In all cases, the proofs as written were very plausible. 14/n

Incidentally, a similar erroneous lemma appeared in 4 different papers, with 3 distinct wrong proofs. (My favorite was of the form “the following (giant) diagram commutes.” Reader, it did not commute.) That’s errors 2-5. 7/n

I've recently been talking a bit about how difficult it is to carefully check even well-written mathematics. I want to try to explain something about this by telling the story of some errors in the literature that (in part) led to the two papers below. 1/n

In economics, editors, referees, and authors often behave as if a published paper should reflect some kind of authoritative consensus. As a result, valuable debate happens in secret, and the resulting paper is an opaque compromise with anonymous co-authors called referees. 1/

Two Fed economists developed this quantitative index by extracting conflict-related #sentiment conveyed by 10 major global newspapers, chart @morganstanley1.bsky.social

Some of my thoughts on OpenAI's o3 and the ARC-AGI benchmark aiguide.substack.com/p/did-openai...

Recently accepted to #REStud, ``Worker Mobility in Production Networks,'' from Cardoza, Grigoli, Pierri and @cianruane.bsky.social : www.restud.com/worker-mobil...

Discover how #TidierPlots.jl is bringing ggplot2 functionality to Julia! In this talk, learn about its origins, development challenges, and how Julia’s design extends the capabilities of this powerful #data #visualization tool. youtu.be/33yik1ciUWE?... #JuliaLang #MachineLearning #Juliacon

Here’s my job market paper ‘Household Liquidity Policy’, joint with Patrick Moran at the FRB