In a new working paper, my co-authors Knut Are Aastveit, @jesper-bojeryd.bsky.social, Magnus Andreas Haare Gulbrandsen, @ragnarjuelsrud.bsky.social and I investigate "What do 12 billion card transactions say about house prices and consumption". www.norges-bank.no/en/news-even...

Sociology: you can’t compare logit or probit coefficients across models Psychology:

100, 1600, 14400 anyone?

Our seminar is taking a summer break, but will be back with a great fall lineup! 😎 @billingsecon.bsky.social, @rkhoban.bsky.social, @rolandrathelot.bsky.social, @kyrahanemaaijer.bsky.social, @hornungerik.bsky.social, @jesper-bojeryd.bsky.social, @teresafmonteiro.bsky.social, @essobecker.bsky.social

Together with Roine Vestman and others, we're seeking a research assistant to work with household data and answer questions in macroeconomics and finance. The position is at Stockholm University and for 12 months, starting in September 2025 at the latest. Please share: su.varbi.com/what:job/job...

Together with Roine Vestman and others, we're seeking a research assistant to work with household data and answer questions in macroeconomics and finance. The position is at Stockholm University and for 12 months, starting in September 2025 at the latest. Please share: su.varbi.com/what:job/job...

This is a thread about remaking the tech sector.

...and once an innovator starts working for these large corporations, they are less innovative than they used to be in smaller companies: ufukakcigit.com/s/Akcigit_Go...

Give people housing and they'll have kids! Obtaining housing increases the average probability of having a child by 3.8% and the number of children by 3.2%. For 20 to 25-year-olds, the corresponding effects are 32% and 33%.

Fascinating paper by Claudia Goldin on drivers of low fertility in advanced economies. Countries where economic progress outstrips social progress (in particular, gender equality in household division of labour) see the most rapid falls in fertility.. www.nber.org/papers/w33311

*Nu framför betalvägg* Läs långt reportage om hur Internationella Engelska Skolans koncernledning mörkade info om barnporrbrott. Varumärket är viktigare än något annat i den svenska marknadsskolan! www.vf.se/2024/12/29/k...

Using an analysis of over 8,000 economics PhDs and their advisors to find what determines economics PhD student research success, from Joshua Angrist and Marc Diederichs https://www.nber.org/papers/w33281

In economics, editors, referees, and authors often behave as if a published paper should reflect some kind of authoritative consensus. As a result, valuable debate happens in secret, and the resulting paper is an opaque compromise with anonymous co-authors called referees. 1/

The theme music from "Jaws" plays as housing starts are already at recession levels.

The AI I was chatting with said that live customer service was only available on Mondays and Wednesdays. I informed them that today is Monday and I'd like to talk to customer service. They corrected me, twice, that it is Sunday. It did kindly tell me that what day it is can be confusing.

On a train in Sweden, a tourist starts talking to a stranger across the aisle from me. The tourist gets upgraded to "first class", which turned out to be the Silent Section. That's what happens when you talk to strangers in Sweden

One thing that econ critiques don't understand is there is no insult from them that economists haven't already heard from another economist in their professional career.

Detention of foreign nationals in #Italy: The Council of Europe’s anti-#torture committee has just published a report on its visit to four pre-removal centres in April. More details: go.coe.int/1AO4z @coe.int #HumanRights

Direct File is a clear success story of making government better. The IRS made a free, easy-to-use way to file taxes directly. People who used it loved it. But wealthy corporate donors are losing money, so Republicans are trying to kill the program and make filing taxes harder.

From our AEA cttee on the job market, here's the December update on the status of the job mkt for PhD economists of the 2024-25 cycle. A thread with graphs follows... #EconJobMarket #EconSky @aeainformation.bsky.social @aeacswep.bsky.social @joelistings.bsky.social 1/9

Remember with increasing sample size, your averages become more reliable The Ns justify the means

I used smth similar in a homework this fall. I asked "What's the difference b/w using feature X v.s. Y in model w/ A, B, C?" Correct answer: "None, b/c A & B make distinction b/w X & Y irrelevant." Chat-GPT got it wrong and, disappointingly, most students too in exactly the same way.

So what could undermine the dollar's position? The BRICS can't just say, "Here's our new currency" and expect anyone to use it — just as they can't order their businesspeople to start talking Esperanto when abroad. 11/

New paper: benjaminmoll.com/challenge/

NEW: my very long election take is here. The key is to understand how beneficial the pandemic era programs were and how painful their expiration was www.crisesnotes.com/one-election...

Linnea beskriver hur lätt det vore för en koncern att slippa offentlighetsprincipen genom att nyttja de lättnadsregler som föreslås. Förslaget lär därför att skapa ännu mindre transparenta koncernstrukturer än idag.

There are, very roughly, something like 70-80 nonstop flights each day from NYC airports to DC or Boston. If we had HSR, many of those flights could be rail trips instead. This in turn would open up many slots for flights elsewhere, adding overall tourist flows.

This is where China's strategy could become truly clever. China could use its US dollars to help Belt & Road countries pay off their dollar debts to Western lenders.

The story around China issuing USD-denominated sovereign bonds in Saudi Arabia is generating an enormous amount of buzz in China, and could potentially be immensely important. I strongly suspect it's a message to the upcoming Trump administration. A small 🧵

🔥Bank runs don’t cause banking crises; they’re the symptom🔥 Emil Verner joins the show to discuss his research that finds historically it was bad fundamentals, not panics, that brought banks down. In this clip, we discuss why the Diamond-Dybvig model remains popular despite being ahistorical (1/2)

My head hurts.

Just a couple more days to apply for summer internships at the San Francisco Fed. Deadline is November 1. #econsky

Roine Vestman, Hedda Thorell, and I are hiring a research assistant for the academic year 2024--25 for a project that uses microdata to study the effects of monetary policy. Pls share wide and far, and tell candidates to reach out to me if they have any Qs. www.su.se/english/abou...

Roine Vestman, Hedda Thorell, and I are hiring a research assistant for the academic year 2024--25 for a project that uses microdata to study the effects of monetary policy. Pls share wide and far, and tell candidates to reach out to me if they have any Qs. www.su.se/english/abou...

Fnissade!

"we’re pretty clearly now in the situation that expected systemic deficits are the problem"