Geoff Bowser (@geoffbowser.bsky.social)

This was published in December. It imagines a Indo-Pacific Suez moment, but I think the analysis is applicable to what is happening now. Maybe even more acute because Iran isn't China:

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How a US "Suez Moment" Could Hollow the US Alliance System - Texas National Security Review This article contends that while the United States still fields potent military capabilities, the narrowing military balance with China means that a future Indo-Pacific clash in which Beijing gains a regional edge is no longer implausible. Using the 1956 Suez Crisis as an analogue, the study asks how a public exposure of US capability shortfalls—an American “Suez moment”—would reverberate through Washington’s global alliance network. The article employs a five-factor theory of defense cooperation—covering three structural and two situational factors—to evaluate two post-setback scenarios. In the first, multiple factors erode simultaneously, hollowing NATO and Indo-Pacific hub-and-spoke ties into nominal shells. In the second, enduring structural and favorable situational factors allow the alliances to adapt, with the United States reemerging as first among equals. The study concludes that credible remedies to underlying US capability deficits and thoughtful alliance management based on the studied five factors will determine which path prevails after a potential US “Suez moment.” https://tnsr.org/2025/12/how-a-us-suez-moment-could-hollow-the-us-alliance-system/