Here’s the information you need to understand the charges against Cole Tomas Allen—especially the attempt charge. open.substack.com/pub/joycevan...

A new pleading from DOJ arguing the injunction against the ballroom should be dissolved after Saturday night is so weird (the capitalization looks familiar) that one wonders if a shorthanded DOJ has brought in a ringer from the WH to write briefs. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...

Talarico up on both Cornyn and Paxton in a new poll of Texas, by 3 and 5. A tough road ahead — and this is coming at a time where the GOP is kost split in its runoff. But it’s no exaggeration that it’s very rare for Dems to even lead in a poll here. www.texastribune.org/2026/04/28/t...

I wish we would quit pretending he is a legitimate president and get rid of him through the Democratic process. I would love for democracy to bring the thing that brings down fascism.

Markets are officially open.

Hi, cartel-knower here. This is not funny. Petrostates only do this when they're in extreme distress.

BIG news today in OPEC land. “UAE says it has decided to exit OPEC and OPEC+ as of May 1 in line with country’s strategic and economic long-term plan, according to state-run WAM. Some thoughts below 🧵

Also see @roryjohnston.bsky.social and @70sbachchan.bsky.social bsky.app/profile/rory...

Super interesting story from mid-2025 describes some of the tensions between UAE and Saudi over quotas & estimates of total capacity. Since 2022 it's only commercial firms doing estimates (IEA was sacked!?) and they are all incentivized to keep quiet.

BTW, if you want to know what goes on inside of Opec it's not always easy. Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, NYT and WSJ all banned from last year from the big meetings. BBG and Reuters had already been banned in 2023

"The move came ⁠after the UAE, a regional business hub and one of Washington's most important allies, criticised fellow Arab states for not doing enough to protect it from ​numerous Iranian attacks during the war." Quite fiercely:

UAE has diversified away much more successfully. Oil exports about 30% of income. UAE prefers to just sell volume and not try to keep prices higher by cutting output. That's been one source of tension with KSA in the last few years, within OPEC.

Re UAE's OPEC decision Oil has a different role for UAE's economy to Saudi Arabia's. UAE has lower dependence (oil:population ratio is more favourable) versus the high Saudi "fiscal breakeven" - ie Saudi requires a higher price to keep society content.

I did the meme, but @katemac.bsky.social has the core analysis here. @abuaardvark.bsky.social has been writing about the roiling politics of the Gulf. bsky.app/profile/kate...

Given the recent rumblings from the UAE of being dismissive of a US presence after the war (apparently they didn’t like eating Shaheds all day), I’m a bit skeptical of this but they may also be choosing “lesser of two evils” type thinking

One potential explanation: Treasury demanded the UAE quit OPEC+ in return for getting access to a USD swap line. If that's correct, this would represent the supremacy of the petrodollar dynamic, not an ebbing.

The security dynamics of this are also interesting - if the UAE is flipping the bird to KSA over OPEC, that means they're going to be even *more* reliant on the US for security given the past couple of months...regional security cooperation doesn't look likely to intensify.

Plausible:

Must feed machine more babies, more babies, need bombs and ballroom, feed more babies, bombs, ballroom, babies

New post: thechinalab.substack.com/p/hot-cheap-...

Trump: "Iran has just informed us they are in a 'State of Collapse.' They want us to 'Open the Hormuz Strait,' as soon as possible, as they try to figure out their leadership situation (Which I believe they will be able to do!). Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP"

SORKIN: You just said Powell should 'cash in' on his role as Fed chair. Would you say the same thing about a senator who finishes their term? I think the American public thinks that's untoward CRAMER: As a nation, we're cynical toward anybody that does figure out how to make a little bit of money

In case people didn’t know: This is the leading scholar behind the very first big legal challenge to Obamacare, and is now among the leading theorists supporting Donald Trump’s assault on birthright citizenship as spelled out in the 14th Amendment. There’s probably a throughline there.

Trump issues his 19th declaration of victory over 8+ weeks.

I know we get inured to stuff, but it is hard to fathom the cruelty here. At a time of tax cuts for the most powerful, they are trying to remove basic supports for the most vulnerable. The Trump administration's war on people with disabilities continues.

The thing about the Ben Sasse era is that people were really surprised someone was an earnest and honest piece of shit

Trump's allies (including Sen. Lindsey Graham) might want to slow down with their calls for a taxpayer-funded White House Ballroom Trump's latest court filing insists the ballroom will be "FREE OF CHARGE" to taxpayers ====>

Raise your hand if you support Jimmy Kimmel!🙌🏾

"Kid Rock takes joyride in Apache gunship to address the Pentagon on the Straits of Hormuz." Make A Wish ass government. I pay taxes for this. We could've filled some potholes or built a bridge or bought some barefoot little redneck kids in West Virginia shoes or some shit.

The vice president of the United States should not be weighing in on criminal prosecutions, let alone criminal investigations in progress. This is how banana republics function, taking out revenge on enemies via criminal “justice“ process. Politicians should stay out of prosecution.

NEW: A rule change pushed by White House officials would slash benefits or end support for as many as 400,000 Supplemental Security Income recipients with Down syndrome, dementia and other disabilities whose parents or relatives receive SNAP benefits.

Sen. Kevin Cramer on Powell: "It would be unusual for a Fed Chair to remain on as a governor of the FOMC. Also, it's a good time for him to cash in, if you will, on his experience and his rolodex and his notoriety. He's certainly earned that opportunity. I would hope he would not stay on."

Some people believe public service is about serving the public. Others view it as an opportunity spend their final years on earth accumulating obscene material wealth. bsky.app/profile/atru...

SORKIN: Do you think hospitals should be owned by private equity firms? REP. JASON SMITH: I would say that nonprofit hospitals look like hedge funds with hospital beds because of how they're acting. We're gonna have to clean house.

Of all the things that didn’t happen, this didn’t happen the most. Blatant market manipulation after UAE announced it’s leaving OPEC.

Yesterday, Ron DeSantis released a proposed congressional map in Florida that would eliminate four Democratic seats and tilt the scales for Trump. In 2010, FL voters overwhelmingly approved a statewide referendum to ban partisan gerrymandering, meaning DeSantis’ scheme plainly violates Florida law.

Happy birthday, Dad. Wish you were here. You’d know what to do. Or at least you’d know what to write. ❤️

The presidency of endless taxpayer bailouts and subsidies of foreign governments, failing Republican-owned business, and huge corporations.

We’ve moved from “infrastructure week” to “dance floor week.” Progress, but make it parquet.

Under 1000 days left in the Trump regime. We're getting there.

While Rome burned, Nero played the fiddle. Trump? He’s checking the ballroom acoustics.

As a new day unfolds, we’re given another quiet chance to notice the goodness that surrounds us, small kindnesses, steady hands, moments that soften the edges of our busy lives. Today’s message is a simple invitation: pause, reflect, and let gratitude lead the way. #Jaye’sMorningLight

Republicans in Congress have prioritized Trump’s whims, wishes and desires ahead of the welfare of the American people. Some because they worship him, others because they are afraid to stand up to him. They will pay a heavy price for that at the ballot box in November.

I am not completely pessimistic about the idea that one day America will return to some semblance of sanity. But an increasingly large part of my brain is telling me that he is breaking too much of the fabric that it will be impossible to ever mend in my lifetime. And I used to have hope for that

This thread resonates with me, and sums up my ongoing melancholia and disillusionment. I still have hope, but not confidence, in my America returning.

NO 👇 LIES DETECTED HERE......

The Israeli government, like the Trump admin, is determined to turn every long-time ally into an adversary - something that will haunt both counties for decades.