Donald has claimed Iran has been defeated almost as many times as my trolls have claimed Ukraine has been.

This. See @radiofreetom.bsky.social for more.

The following two tables are excellent analysis conducted by an OSINT Japanese blogger, who I fear is not on blue sky. They cover AD batteries and radars counted via satellite imagery & associating with Oryx data. The latter being only visually confirmed, this points to nasty conclusions for rascia

I'd post alot on this platform if it ever functioned properly. 9 out of 10 times, vids cant be added. Also, cant add a vid AND an image in the same post, then there's the character limit. This app could really grow if they just sort those issues

1/ In January 2026, Ukraine reported killing 34,000 Russian soldiers – on average 1,096 a day, or 7,846 per week. Thousands of Ukrainians have likely died in the same period. Last month in Ukraine was much bloodier than the average monthly death toll at Auschwitz. ⬇️

It's almost as if putting "pragmatic business relationships" ahead of "ethical considerations" isn't, in the long term, pragmatic or even good for business.

The Iranian people know that breaking their warped social contract “will be costly and terrifying,” Karim Sadjadpour argues. “But they also know that living under its terms is at best a dead end, and at worst a death sentence”:

The events of the last 24 hours show why it's important to build functional verification structures in public and counterpublic spaces to resist the authoritarian erosion of our democratic systems, as described in this thread.

From a friend in Tehran. Someone who simply wants to live free — and see his and all countries rid of the “evil formula: Jihadism*Russia.” “Hope to see you in a free Iran‌.”

For those who would like to learn a bit about what María Corina Machado has actually done instead of just writing smug comments from the comfort of their armchairs, here is something to get started: www.theatlantic.com/internationa...

This is a sign of ethical collapse. Trump has forced this brave person to debase herself--with gold trimming.

It interests me that, despite plenty of evidence that AI coding is a useful tool, easily substantiated by just using CoPilot, Cursor, or equivalent for a few weeks, there are still programmers pushing back. 1/13

Trump's Autopen anntelnaes.substack.com/p/trumps-put...

To understand what triggered the protests and the unexpected reaction in Ukraine, it’s essential to know the context - especially for those who don’t follow Ukraine’s internal politics. 🧵Thread: 1/ First, the protest isn’t aimed at the President personally, but at a specific law passed yesterday.

A good sample of responses in the post below. As I say in the interview, we have to understand the MAGA coalition as a collection of disordered counterpublics looking for Trump to get to the "truth" they're seeking. Not all are Trump first. bsky.app/profile/sahi...

Something unusual is happening in MAGA-world. A new Department of Justice memo confirmed that Jeffrey Epstein died by suicide, and said there's no “client list” of elites to be released. That shattered something. And the backlash from Trump’s base is revealing. www.yahoo.com/news/maga-di...

Are you old enough to remember when the Ukraine-USA minerals deal was going to give Trump a stake in Ukraine and unlock lots of aid? Seems like several lifetimes ago.

Just sent out my free weekend update. The US administration did this week what it has been itching to do for a while, stop the delivery of all military aid to Ukraine, even that approved before Trump became president. Don’t kid yourself, Trump supports this. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

You probably have the impression that I'm currently living in the metro. Well, I have such an impression too, to be honest.

So the US just wants Ukraine to have to negotiate from a position of weakness, not strength.

Per reporting by my colleague @olliecarroll.bsky.social, US has cancelled 8,000-ish 155mm shells for Ukraine. That is 20% of current MONTHLY production. How that would have materially affected US readiness is hard to see. That's before getting onto 25 Stingers & 92 AIM-7, which are being phased out

🧵 THREAD: Why the Cato Institute’s new paper on “misinformation panic” is dangerously wrong, and why it completely misunderstands the real crisis we face. www.cato.org/policy-analy...

This is a really important story: on the danger of believing your own conspiracy theories. Iran did. Is the US next? www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/...

170 victims on a passenger train in any country is front page. Immediately. But since it’s in Ukraine, well, the world is used to Ukrainians dying so it’s nothing new really

Was (nicht nur) Bluesky zerstören könnte: Ein hoher Ton der Rechthaberei, die im Widersprechenden immer gleich den Feind sieht. Sollte hier - wie anderswo - nicht zur Regel werden.

Another RU massive bombardment: Ukrainian forces neutralized 479 out of 499 incoming Russian drones or missiles during last night’s assault (June 8-9). Russia launched one of the largest drone swarm yet - 479 Shahed UAVs plus various missiles from multiple directions. /1

Over 5 months December - May, balances on treasury accounts decreased by 3 trillion rubles. The volume of OFZ in circulation increased by 2 trillion. The budget deficit for 5 months is almost 5 trillion. The reason is a drop in income, an increase in expenses. Summary: default 1/

‼️ Russia: “The Russian Defense Ministry reported the defeat of 33 Ukrainian drones on Sunday” Congratulations? 🇷🇺: 😅 things could have been worse www.interfax.ru/russia/1028991

If this is even close to correct, this is huge! It’s an operation on par with the Israeli Operation Moked opening the Six-Day War, and in particular the loss of platforms that play a key role in the airborne leg of Russia’s nuclear triad will see a lot of discussion and study.

Dear Russians, this is not a terrorist attack. This is war. Ukraine targeted your strategic bombers, not your homes. Your own armed forces are, on the other hand, constantly terrorising Ukrainian civilians.

The isn’t even like Christmas, it’s better than Christmas cause on Christmas we were bombed from those aircrafts

We live in a world where follower counts are social capital, attention is currency, and your value is measured by metrics. It’s not personal pathology, it’s systemic design.

Some people deny reality because they’re confused. Some deny it because they’re scared. Some because they’re angry. But then there’s something deeper, something more organised. Something I call disordered denial.

Right now, there are a small number of people who actually watch this stuff seriously and some of us are quietly conferring together looking out the window while we watch the incoming storm. It’s coming and it getting much closer.

Let’s talk about the Russian Economy! I want to try give you an overview of some to the choices Russia has in some basic terms, and without pulling out too much reference material, so hopefully it will be easier to comprehend. (So the opposite of usual, but you know how I love a reference)

A new, free Europe Dispatch column by @alanderminna.bsky.social is out. She talks about the difficulty European states are facing balancing their commitment to Ukraine and their need not to have a rupture with the USA. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Just sent out this as the Istanbul talks are start. Putin clearly seems to think Trump is on his side and wont sanction him--or why else send such a humiliating Russian delegation to negotiate? And first signs are he is right, as Trump is defending him. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

The White House and AG Bondi claim the ~$400 million plane isn’t a bribe because it is “not conditioned on any official act,” and won’t violate the Constitution’s ban on foreign gifts because it isn’t being given to an individual but to the USAF and, eventually, Trump’s presidential library. Right.

Last night Putin rejected the proposal for a ceasefire from May 12. In this regard, it would be appropriate to look at the state of the Russian budget. The budget is on the verge of collapse. My latest article on Kiev Insider kyivinsider.com/russian-econ...

Der 9. Mai mit der Militärparade bedeutet für Putin sehr viel. Putin verzerrt die Erinnerung an den Großen Vaterländischen Krieg zu einer Ideologie, die ein zentrales Element des Putinismus bildet. 🧵

Franziska Davies @efdavies.bsky.social , Osteuropa-Historikerin und Vorstand der Deutsch-Ukrainischen-Gesellschaft @de-ua-gesellschaft.bsky.social, mit einer Botschaft zum 8. Mai 2025. *gekürzt, wg. Zeitlimit* 1/

Most teams don't have a tech problem. They have a learning problem. Fast feedback, short iterations, real users. That’s how software grows. Stop polishing code in a vacuum. Ship. Learn. Improve. Repeat.

The idea that the Ukraine-US minerals deal is historic and a sign that the Trump administration is now going to aid Ukraine stands a chance to be a worse prediction than Trump ending the war in one day.

Hi All, just sent out weekend update #130 (yikes), free as all. It starts with a discussion of “concessions”. The Russian narrative is so strong in the west that Ukraine is being offered nothing by Trump and people are saying they are getting concessions. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Russia is a bankrupt country! Increase in bankruptcies in Q1 2025 year-on-year - judicial bankruptcies +35% - extra-judicial bankruptcies +24% (growth from 2024 to 2023 by 3.5 times!)

The Ru economy has begun to collapse. Thread. Federal budget revenue growth has been slowing for 5 quarters in a row and in Q1 25 it was only +3.7%. Look at the chart, the last 5 quarters the revenue growth rate was +54%_+25%_+25%_+11%_+4% 1/

I see several things happening in Ukraine right now: 1: Ukraine has pivoted to a drone based defense. Most of the gains you see Russia making right now are coming as a result of one of two things. A: Inferior Ukrainian drone units or B: Overwhelming Numerical Superiority.