The reported peace plan developed by envoys for Trump and Putin sounds more like a list of Moscow's demands than a compromise between two combatants. It's not clear what if anything Russia is willing to concede even as it insists that Ukraine give up a lot. www.ft.com/content/2353...

It is incredibly simple to acknowledge that violence in any form is awful and erodes society.

“.. Unemployment rates among tech workers between 20 and 30 years old jumped by 3 percentage points since the start of this year .. , “a .. larger increase than we’ve seen for other young workers,” he said. @cnbc.com www.cnbc.com/2025/08/05/a...

Given the other questions on this survey, it's reasonable the researchers would want to check for people who might be yanking their chain

A Washington Post poll found most Americans strongly support releasing all files in the Epstein case and suspect the documents contain embarrassing information about President Trump, Democrats and billionaires.

A few days ago, the new Washpost Opinion boss extolled Bezos's shift in the direction of the page and warned that the changes will be "unwelcome for some" Which is what managers say when they're trying to get people to quit before they get fired.

While MAGA is ubiquitous, little is known about what it means to the American public. Ten years on, what do Americans think when they hear or read this phrase? (@jesserhodesumass.bsky.social @eichen.bsky.social Douglas Rice, Gregory Wall and Tatishe Nteta) theconversation.com/what-maga-me...

The Economist/YouGov poll in April found that 11% of Trump voters are medicaid recipients

Across 12 high-income countries, public satisfaction in democracy has declined over time. In 2017, a median of 49% were satisfied with the functioning of democracy. By 2025, just 35% say the same thing. www.pewresearch.org/...

Interesting analysis. “Pew found that Trump’s success with Hispanics was primarily due to changes in turnout rather than voters changing their preferences. Latino voters who voted in ‘20 but not ‘24 backed Biden by 2-1. While Trump won Latino voters who skipped ‘20 by 23 points.”

A new Pew Research Center study solidified what pre-election surveys suggested, that President Trump was able to build a far more diverse Republican coalition in the 2024 election than ever before. Here's what else the research showed.

Murder remains down more than 21 percent in the 30 cities that reported the most murders to the FBI in 2023 (the most recent official release). Murder is down in 26 of the 30 cities. All but 4 cities have data through late May and all but 1 (c'mon Phoenix!) have data through April.

Smart look at what we can and can't extrapolate right now from Democrats' in-party perception weakness (and also a good aside on how changes in survey mode can have unexpected effects on trendlines)

I don't know that it's especially difficult to conceptualize the use case for surveys that gather data on a) alcohol consumption or b) internet usage among the American public

Must-read on the state of the polling landscape

Conservative and Liberal Americans flatly reject authoritarian rule.

RIP Joe Nye, the dean of American political scientists who coined the term “soft power” — the idea that America’s global influence was more than its military might. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/08/u...

Was looking thru Gallup 1975 polling data (for fall of Saigon) & found this: Party ID (a year after Nixon resigned) Dem 46% Rep 22% Ind 22% Educational pattern was reverse of today: Dems’ narrowest edge, 35%-27% among college grads, widest (59%-20%) among ‘grade school’ grads.

This is a nicely thorough overview:

One very clear change from our October/November 2024 survey of Canadians to our March/April 2025 survey of those same (n=1,181) respondents is the 10 percentage point jump in those saying being Canadian is their single most important identity.

And predictably, this "stat" - again, reflecting only readers of Nature who filled out a form - is now turning up in other stories as though it's based on an actual survey, which it is not. (The bigger story itself is, of course, far more important and troubling: www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...)

The @WSJ headline says it all: Dow Headed for Worst April Since 1932 as Investors Send ‘No Confidence’ Signal. @hannaherinlang.bsky.social www.wsj.com/finance/inve...

% who are extremely/very concerned about Ukraine being defeated and taken over by Russia 🔵 Democrats: 62% 🔴 Republicans: 25% % who are extremely/very concerned about Russia invading other countries in the region 🔵 Democrats: 66% 🔴 Republicans: 29% www.pewresearch.org/global/2025/...

Public opinion of Pope Francis over the years

A good time to read Gene Healy's The Cult of the Presidency, which traces the history of this notion, which starts with Woodrow Wilson www.cato.org/books/the-cu...

74% of respondents—including 91% of Democrats and 55% of Republicans—said it was reckless for senior leaders in the Trump administration to discuss attack plans on the Signal app, while 22% said it was a harmless oversight. (Reuters/Ipsos) More, via Opinion Today: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250403

This graphic got a lot of action last week. I was curious about the underlying data so I pulled a copy from the same source, but included all the airports being reported, not just five. And I included the total data, not just YoY change. The numbers are a bit less shocking.

Increasing number say Trump’s policies are making them worse off financially, with many bracing for tariffs to make things worse His approval ratings are down, and it’s Trump’s economy now: most say his policies, not Biden's, are responsible for its state Read more: www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-tr...

We've got a new @pewresearch.org report looking at US public opinion on key elements of Trump's foreign policy, including questions on USAID, the Russia-Ukraine war, Gaza, Greenland, tariffs on China, climate, and WHO. www.pewresearch.org/global/2025/...

University of Michigan preliminary April data puts consumer sentiment at 45-year low... Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped from 5.0% in March to 6.7% this month — increased across party lines, resulting in highest level since 1981 Long-run inflation expectations up from 4.1% in March to 4.4%

AP: Preliminary figures released Tuesday show visits to the U.S. from overseas fell 11.6% last month compared w/ the prev year. Tourism was projected to rise by 9%, but is now anticipated to fall by roughly that same amount. Bookings for US travel at a top Canadian site are down 40%.

Pretty blunt polling memo showing ‘no appetite across the political spectrum’ for Medicaid cuts, from Fabrizio Ward (Trump pollsters). Via @politico.com modernmedicaid.org/wp-content/u...

How Americans viewed direct US talks with Iran - 10 years ago www.pewresearch.org/politics/201...

NEW: Public support for a US government ban on TikTok (remember that?) has decreased from 50% in 2023 to 34% today. Americans are also less likely than in 2023 to see TikTok as a major threat to national security. www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...

These are the days that I wish I paid closer attention in Econ classes. Have only a hazy recollection of “beggar thy neighbor” trade policies. Great phrase though.

This morning, my @pewresearch.org colleagues published a fantastic report comparing the U.S. general public's attitudes about AI with those of AI experts. Perhaps not surprisingly, there are big differences in positivity towards AI, but there are also fascinating points of agreement. /1

Hot take: negative economic sentiment over the past 5ish years has/will be driven largely by a combo of paying high prices + some expressive responding. Elite cues + media frames further down the list b/c it's tough to convince people either that prices aren't high or that high prices aren't bad.

My new oral history for @postopinions.bsky.social of the weekend that Bear Stearns collapsed, the opening act of the 2008 financial crisis that upended our world and launched the populist wing of the GOP that we're now reckoning with today. Based on 20 interviews with insiders: wapo.st/3Y3zWIn

Please don't ask whether some real or hypothetical event "would make you more or less likely to support [CANDIDATE]" -- it prompts people to share their preeixsting feelings on the event/person, produces misleading results, overestimates impact and makes me personally sad

I created a brief spreadsheet of reductions I've heard of so far. Any additions you know of (especially if you have the links/receipts) would be great: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

My conversation with @johnsides.bsky.social and Danny Hayes on @goodauth.bsky.social on what the evidence says on what really determined the 2024 elections goodauthority.org/news/so-what...

Trump tariff 'made something snap in us' — many Canadians see US rift beyond repair; data from Angus Reid found that 91% of Canadians want their country to rely less on the US in the future. (@nadineyousif.bsky.social BBC News) More, via Opinion Today: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250206-top...

Today, MAGA’s adoption of ‘no more endless wars’ may be obscuring the overwhelming GOP support for Iraq war, at least among those not old enough to remember.

NEW: Census.gov has been down for many users since around 5 p.m. ET. I've asked the Census Bureau's public information office what is causing the bureau's website not to load and when they expect it to come back online...

A new @reuters.com poll finds Americans have a dim view of many of the Trump administration's blizzard of executive actions, including the Jan. 6 pardons and his effort to limit birthright citizenship. But they *really* don't like the Gulf of America thing. www.reuters.com/world/us/ame...

Thinking about the messages of "here's how we're helping you" vs. "here's what we're not doing to help those people" in light of the first round of executive actions.

Wrote this five years ago this week. It was the ninth item in our daily newsletter.

Living in DC, I have a bunch of neighbors who work for Fed Reserve/Treasury. During both D and R administrations. I have to say, I generally admire their commitment to steering the ship that is the U.S. economy. (I borrowed a folding table from one of them for my daughter's swim meet tomorrow)

Threats to democracy in the 2nd Trump administration Plenty of signs of trouble, but experts overestimated chances of some bad outcomes last time New @niskanencenter.bsky.social #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript with @brendannyhan.bsky.social www.niskanencenter.org/threats-to-d...

Elites often think this, but not true in the mass public (in short, it's never Bloomberg o'clock)