The Iran war effect. About 2x the drop from the carbon tax removal in April.

Prices didn't quite get there fast enough for Albertans to see relief from the gas tax next quarter. A reminder, the trigger is based on the last 20 trading days prior to the end of the April contract (for Q2). We hit ~$75 average; >$80 is needed for relief. The EV tax remains unchanged.

TMX open-season for firm service. Also moving forward with expansion plans: - Drag Reducing Agent, +90,000 bpd, early 2027 - Mainline Optimization Project, +210,000bpd, end 2028 Will increase total system capacity from approximately 890,000 to 1,190,000 bpd www.transmountain.com/news/trans-m...

Supporters of Alberta's ruling United Conservative Party are twice as likely as Albertans overall to support secession:

Prices didn't quite get there fast enough for Albertans to see relief from the gas tax next quarter. A reminder, the trigger is based on the last 20 trading days prior to the end of the April contract (for Q2). We hit ~$75 average; >$80 is needed for relief. The EV tax remains unchanged.

Wild figures in two decades of EIA retrospective data. Solar getting it wrong gets all the airplay. But the consistent underestimation of natural gas exports and the speed of coal's collapse are just as striking, even at 3-5 year horizons.

As @pjpartington.bsky.social noted, in November Alberta had the same EV share of sales as Ontario!

For the most recent month of data (Jan 2026), EV sales in Canada dipped downwards. This was the last month prior to the federal EV rebates being reinstated. Will be interesting to see what the combo of rebates returning and ~$2 gas does for EV sales in the months to come...

BC in a very different position relative to their WECC neighbours when it comes to snowpack this year.

To recap this idiotic war (so far): - spent ~$100B - killed 175 school kids - destroyed unarmed navy vessel and all crew - replaced old supreme leader with younger, more hard-line son - unsanctioned Russian and Iranian oil for windfalls - showcased Hormuz as weapon - alienate allies further

🌮

Trump: on the Strait of Hormuz: "At a certian point, it'll open itself"

ZEV sales in Canada back on the upswing after falling back with the removed of the EV rebate. Will be interesting to watch the next few quarters with (a) the EV rebate returning, (b) Chinese EVs coming, and (c) gas prices soaring. (Note: this chart includes Battery Electric and Plug-in Hybrid)

Quick look at the "fixed vs floating" decision for Alberta power users. Floating has been the big winner. Feb price was 2.5c/kWh in Calgary for energy. Forward prices, too, point to remaining on floating rates for the foreseeable future. This can of course change (quickly) but float for now.

At what point does the GOA consider a hedging program to lock in this unexpected flip to surplus?

The prompt month WTI futures is hovering near $100. The 1-year strip is around $84. Alberta’s budget forecast for the same 1-year strip is $60.50. Every $1 increase adds $680MM to Alberta’s budget. At this point we are looking at a « mark-to-market » budget change of +$16 billion 😳 [1/2]

As Canada accelerates nation-building projects, ensuring Indigenous Nations are leading — not just being consulted — will be paramount to their success. Proud to support the launch of the Indigenous Power Coalition today. www.indigenouspowercoalition.ca/updates/cana...

New Canadian population data out today. Will post some charts. Most notable top-level: that little button hook at the top Canadian population growth went *negative* last quarter!

VENEZUELA DEFEATS THE UNITED STATES TO TAKE HOME THEIR FIRST WORLD BASEBALL CLASSIC CHAMPIONSHIP 🇻🇪🏆

Springtime in Canada 🇨🇦

Working on a presentation and found this visual interesting: The share of household spending that goes towards electricity (data through 2023 only) Alberta rising; Rest of Canada falling...

"confidential" if only there was a way to uncover this mystery...

A little thread on Canada-US electricity trade, looking at the 4 largest electricity trading partners: BC, MB, ON, QC A rare (first time?) occurrence: 🚨 In 2025 all 3 big hydro provinces (BC, MB, QC) were *net importers* 🚨 Ontario continues to massively export power. [1/n]

Some quick math on the cost to drive an ICE vs EV at $2/L in BC: ⛽️ ICE: $2/L x 9L/100km = $18/100km 🔌 EV: $0.10/kWh (Tier 2 offpk charge) x 18kWh/100km = $1.80/100km 🚨 10x difference! For a typical driver (15,000km), works out to $2,400 savings per year.

$2/L gas in Vancouver ⛽️ 📈 Expect those Chinese EVs arriving into port soon will be looking mighty attractive to many

If you were trying to plunge the world into recession, you couldn’t write a better playbook: slap tariffs on everyone, then start a war that launches oil to $200.

Jim Cramer suggests on CNBC that Trump could “bomb Tehran into the Stone Age” until Iran reopens the strait, citing U.S. bombings of North Vietnam in the 1970s. Carl Quintanilla points out to him that Hanoi won that war.

Re-upping as interties are "so hot right now" (not physically; that would be a bad thing...) Great to see the momentum for this build! macleans.ca/economy/forg...

strong “I swear to god, I will turn this car around!” vibes

As an IR professor, it's depressing that this is outperforming all others as the best theory of US foreign policy

Imagine the reaction in the US if ~175 schoolgirls had been killed by a targeted Iranian missile. (Or anyone's missile.) This is an atrocity.

Israel says Iran may ask for a ceasefire. Translation: the US lit this fire with no plan and now that oil is spiking, they’re desperately hunting for an off-ramp. Classic.

Trump's decision to bomb Iran is now the greatest windfall to the Russian war effort on record. If it continues, it might save the Russian war economy.

Like me around midnight when I’m super hungry, the search for TACOs has begun…

To give you a sense of how sensitive Alberta’s provincial budget is to global oil prices: At the current 1-year forward strip for crude oil, Alberta’s budget would go from a $9B deficit to an **$8B SURPLUS** Begs the question of whether AB should consider hedging these windfall gains at some point

And fill up your gas tank! (if you haven't yet bought an EV 😉)

Premier says price jump happening too late to trigger gas tax relief: "price >$80 has to be there for 3 months" www.msn.com/en-ca/news/c... But regulations say it's only the avg of 20 days prior to March 16 to alter the April 1 tax rate. Turns out, we're on the cusp of hitting the threshold.

I suppose some countries do this, but are there many equivalents to the fixed regulated (or fixed price retail contract) that most electricity consumers are on, for a retail gasoline consumer? Electricity isn’t without its volatility, but it’s largely masked to the consumer. Not so with gasoline.

@roryjohnston.bsky.social what do you make of WTI > Brent?

Well, at least all of this was completely unnecessary and avoidable

That didn’t take long. $100 oil

Umm, I was assured that the “destruction of the Iran nuclear threat” occurred last June. 🤔

Help shape the future of Canada’s power system ⚡ We’re hiring a Director to lead our electricity program and team advancing a clean, reliable and affordable grid nationwide. Apply by March 22 👇 buff.ly/Ej0eM8x

Hegseth needs to stand trial after this as a war criminal. Between this attack and the girls' school, there's no ambiguity. He is responsible for mass murder and must be held accountable.

Oil’s going to be over $100 on Monday and gasoline >$1.70/L in a matter of days. Meanwhile, power prices in Alberta… Floating rate EV drivers be like 😊

Several AB folks asking me if the war in the Middle East means they should switch to fixed price natgas? Short answer: nope AECO remains pretty disconnected from global markets. That could change with more BC LNG exports, but we’re not there yet. I remain floating. (Oil’s a different story!)

Crude oil continues its rapid march to $100. April WTI futures up another 8% this morning, after 8% yesterday…