Neither HEV nor PHEV have started falling on a trailing 12 months basis in Austria yet.

Austria still slowing down BEV transition at the moment

🇦🇹 Austria - February 26 - BEV Trajectory 20.9% BEV 10.1% PHEV 69.0% ICE (of which 31.3%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 21.4% BEV 10.5% PHEV 68.1% ICE (of which 29.5%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

HEV share (trailing 12 months) peaked in January in New Zealand and has now begun shrinking (talking from 2025 onwards cuz Clean Car Discount). PHEV are still slightly growing in share.

Slow down in New Zealand is continuing. This is still the aftereffect of them abolishing the Clean Car Discount. You can clearly see when it was introduced and abolished (mid 2021 to Jan 2024).

What's interesting about New Zealand's X curve is that PHEV didn't change much in recent months. Slow down of BEV transition (for political reasons from what I hear) manifests itself not in the PHEV category, [...]

🇳🇿 NewZealand - February 26 - BEV Trajectory 4.9% BEV 4.2% PHEV 90.9% ICE (of which 31.7%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 4.3% BEV 3.4% PHEV 92.3% ICE (of which 35.8%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

For the first time, trailing 12 months HEV share is now shrinking in Australia. PHEV is still growing a bit, and I expect that to continue for a bit. BEV are clearly the way to go though. The first pitstop, HEV, is now behind you mates. Next will be PHEV and then it's all BEV from there.

After a slight slow down ever since the economic situation in early 2024 worsened, Australia is now slightly accelerating BEV it seems. At least a small nudge towards faster BEV transition can be seen, but this fits with general expectations of the markets.

Australia nicely follows the to be expected X shape of transition to BEV

🇦🇺 Australia - February 26 - BEV Trajectory 12.2% BEV 6.4% PHEV 81.4% ICE (of which 15.2%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 9.4% BEV 4.8% PHEV 85.8% ICE (of which 16.6%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

Good-ish news for Japan: Japan could form a first trajectory soon. Doesn't really hold well for now, so I'm not posting the output, but by summer we should be able to start monitoring Japan's development better. For now, market looks like this:

The HEV area in green has begun slight shrink in Germany. Remember, people go from ICE to BEV not instantly, but via HEV first, then passiert by PHEV and only then do the masses converge to BEV.

Transition time curve has already prepared itself for the upcoming acceleration of the BEV transition in Germany.

I expect the change from ICE to BEV (via PHEV) to speed up in 2026 significantly in Germany. Especially with the Iran situation and Diesel prices having hit a >€2/L level

🇩🇪 Germany - February 26 - BEV Trajectory 21.9% BEV 11.5% PHEV 66.6% ICE (of which 28.64%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 19.8% BEV 11.2% PHEV 69.0% ICE (of which 28.66%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

HEV has not yet peaked in Italy. The majority of the speed in transition to BEV is still about to be picker up in Italy.

Italy is picking up a little bit of speed in their transition to BEV

🇮🇹 Italy - February 26 - BEV Trajectory 7.9% BEV 8.5% PHEV 83.6% ICE (of which 51.9%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 6.6% BEV 7.3% PHEV 86.1% ICE (of which 45.8%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

🇵🇹 Portugal - February 26 - BEV Trajectory 23.0% BEV 12.5% PHEV 64.5% ICE (of which 34.3%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 23.7% BEV 15.4% PHEV 60.9% ICE (of which 24.0%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

🇨🇭 Switzerland - January 26 - BEV Trajectory 20.8% BEV 12.2% PHEV 67.0% ICE (of which 39.6%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 23.1% BEV 11.3% PHEV 65.7% ICE (of which 35.4%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

🇪🇸 Spain - January 26 - BEV Trajectory 8.9% BEV 12.0% PHEV 79.2% ICE (of which 48.7%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 9.0% BEV 11.1% PHEV 79.9% ICE (of which 42.3%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

🇸🇮 Slovenia - January 26 - BEV Trajectory 11.0% BEV 5.1% PHEV 83.8% ICE (of which 18.0%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 11.4% BEV 3.5% PHEV 85.1% ICE (of which 13.5%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

🇸🇰 Slovakia - January 26 - BEV Trajectory 6.1% BEV 3.7% PHEV 90.3% ICE (of which 42.0%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 4.9% BEV 4.4% PHEV 90.7% ICE (of which 35.0%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

🇷🇴 Romania - January 26 - BEV Trajectory 12.3% BEV 0.0% PHEV 87.7% ICE (of which 58.6%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 5.7% BEV 0.0% PHEV 94.3% ICE (of which 50.1%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

🇳🇴 Norway - January 26 - BEV Trajectory 94.0% BEV 0.8% PHEV 5.3% ICE (of which 0.5%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 95.9% BEV 1.5% PHEV 2.6% ICE (of which 1.3%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

🇱🇺 Luxembourg - January 26 - BEV Trajectory 29.2% BEV 6.0% PHEV 64.8% ICE (of which 32.2%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 26.7% BEV 7.7% PHEV 65.6% ICE (of which 29.8%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

🇱🇹 Lithuania - January 26 - BEV Trajectory 9.4% BEV 14.2% PHEV 76.4% ICE (of which 44.1%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 7.8% BEV 10.9% PHEV 81.4% ICE (of which 46.5%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

🇱🇻 Latvia - January 26 - BEV Trajectory 6.6% BEV 10.8% PHEV 82.6% ICE Trailing 12 months are: 7.1% BEV 12.3% PHEV 80.6% ICE Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

🇮🇸 Iceland - January 26 - BEV Trajectory 13.1% BEV 45.5% PHEV 41.4% ICE (of which 29.7%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 38.6% BEV 22.0% PHEV 39.4% ICE (of which 22.8%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

🇭🇺 Hungary - January 26 - BEV Trajectory 9.4% BEV 7.7% PHEV 82.9% ICE (of which 54.3%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 8.7% BEV 5.8% PHEV 85.5% ICE (of which 50.8%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

🇬🇷 Greece - January 26 - BEV Trajectory 6.3% BEV 6.9% PHEV 86.9% ICE (of which 63.4%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 6.3% BEV 8.1% PHEV 85.7% ICE (of which 51.8%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

🇫🇷 France - January 26 - BEV Trajectory 28.3% BEV 4.5% PHEV 67.2% ICE (of which 48.1%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 20.8% BEV 6.7% PHEV 72.6% ICE (of which 44.1%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

🇪🇪 Estonia - January 26 - BEV Trajectory 5.6% BEV 11.4% PHEV 83.0% ICE (of which 48.3%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 6.2% BEV 10.7% PHEV 83.1% ICE (of which 51.5%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

🇨🇿 Czechia - January 26 - BEV Trajectory 5.2% BEV 4.7% PHEV 90.1% ICE (of which 24.8%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 5.6% BEV 4.5% PHEV 89.9% ICE (of which 23.2%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

🇨🇾 Cyprus - January 26 - BEV Trajectory 15.7% BEV 4.3% PHEV 80.0% ICE (of which 49.0%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 10.6% BEV 5.1% PHEV 84.2% ICE (of which 47.6%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

🇧🇬 Bulgaria - January 26 - BEV Trajectory 5.7% BEV 1.4% PHEV 92.9% ICE (of which 6.3%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 5.2% BEV 1.2% PHEV 93.6% ICE (of which 4.4%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

Georgia is the newest country I have taken into my portfolio. Unfortunately there is no HEV-PHEV split available, so the well liked X-graph doesn't work out, but the BEV-S-curve works out and the trailing 12 month market split may also be of interest to you as Georgia has ~160k units per year.

🇬🇪 Georgia - Q4 2025 - BEV Trajectory 4.3% BEV 24.2% Hybrid 71.5% ICE Trailing 12 months are: 4.5% BEV 22.4% Hybrid 73.1% ICE Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

Pure Petrol isn't the fuel type to lose share at the moment, that's Diesel, as it is in most regions. Albania is becoming vacation spot for Europeans from what I hear, so electrification could help them as well, because the "I drive 5000km on vacation and can't charge there" argument gets weaker.

Albania really only started accelerating a year ago. Now they're on a level that could make Germany jealous.

Things are progressing quite well in Albania. Incentives consist of no import tariffs and no VAT for imports (20%) from what I can tell.

🇦🇱 Albania - January 26 - BEV Trajectory 13.3% BEV 0.1% PHEV 86.6% ICE (of which 2.3%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 7.5% BEV 0.1% PHEV 92.4% ICE (of which 2.7%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

HEV has been falling in December for the first time (on a trailing 12 months basis). That has continues in January. Now that HEV has peaked, it's PHEV and BEV time in Poland.

Trajectory didn't really change in January. They can in pretty much on point. That's good. Usually January is bad all around the world, but Poland's wasn't below trajectory, so things could accelerate further.

Poland continues to do pretty well in their trajectory. Right now they seem to be among the fastest even. Let's hope they won't scrap incentives too early.

🇵🇱 Poland - January 26 - BEV Trajectory 8.8% BEV 7.0% PHEV 84.2% ICE (of which 46.3%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 7.7% BEV 5.9% PHEV 86.4% ICE (of which 45.5%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

For the time being, ICE is still the main thing in Chile, but HEV are now starting to take share. Remember, HEV are the first to take up share as a general rule. Only then will PHEV and then BEV take over. Exceptions are rare.

Chile has had a bit of a slow down, but within reason. I couldn't say what's gonna happen down there.