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Market split in South Korea

South Korea has a heavily fluctuating trajectory, even though they're already at 15-20% BEV. From what I can tell, the reason seems simple: incentive schemes are frequently redesigned rather than phased out, creating stop-and-go adoption instead of a smooth transition.

PHEV are not a thing in South Korea

🇰🇷 South Korea - October 25 - BEV Trajectory 15.2% BEV 0.6% PHEV 84.2% ICE (of which 33.7%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 12.5% BEV 0.8% PHEV 86.6% ICE (of which 33.5%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

Italy is still heavy on HEV at the moment.

Italy has significantly accelerated BEV adoption in the last 2 months. Incentives help kicking off things. They just need to stay long enough to make things permanent. Abolishing them below 20% adoption or after only a few months means only a pull-forward effect. People need a bit of time to learn.

Last months acceleration in Italy's BEV adoption came almost purely from ICE. No changes in PHEV trajectory.

🇮🇹 Italy - December 25 - BEV Trajectory 11.0% BEV 9.3% PHEV 79.7% ICE (of which 42.8%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 6.2% BEV 6.5% PHEV 87.4% ICE (of which 44.4%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

PHEV still have room for growth in Ireland. This is due to ICE falling mich faster than BEV is rising. I think you can read this as people still being somewhere wary of BEV.

Ireland is becoming more electrified by the month.

Ireland seems to have reached peak slowness of transition time. I think they should accelerate in 2026.

🇮🇪 Ireland - December 25 - BEV Trajectory 62.0% BEV 7.2% PHEV 30.8% ICE (of which 11.6%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 18.9% BEV 15.2% PHEV 66.0% ICE (of which 23.5%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

BYD's November 2025 was their biggest BEV month ever recorded in human history.. if you combine BYD's BEV sales of November and October (2025) you're talking about more electric vehicles than the entire fleet of Spain.. #alwaysbecharging chart by #alojoh nitter.net/alojoh/statu...

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Market in Portugal is becoming more and more electric, and quite fast as well. Neither PHEV, nor HEV have started their fall yet, which is in favour of future BEV, as these people will likely already want a BEV next.

About 5%p more is the current wiggle room PHEV can expect for growth in Portugal.

🇵🇹 Portugal - December 25 - BEV Trajectory 26.8% BEV 14.1% PHEV 59.2% ICE (of which 18.2%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 23.2% BEV 15.2% PHEV 61.6% ICE (of which 22.3%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

Heavy Duty Vehicles in the Netherlands are still almost all Diesel, but this will now change rapidly, as BEV show massive growth. Almost unbelievable growth even.

BEV adoption among Heavy Duty Vehicles in the Netherlands has accelerated SIGNIFICANTLY. They're setting the bar quite high for themselves. This is good news.

🇳🇱 Netherlands (HDV) - November 25 - BEV Trajectory 14.3% BEV 0.1% PHEV 85.6% ICE Trailing 12 months are: 7.0% BEV 0.1% PHEV 92.9% ICE Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

New Feature in the Gallery: Every Threshold already reached is now coloured green 🟢 Every 80% that is only reached after Jan 2035 is coloured red 🔴 Now go play around with the Custom column! (colouring as per the model, not as a trailing 12 months or anything)

Heavy Duty Vehicle Market is dominated by Diesel in Finland. Like ... completely dominated. And no, the "OTHER" category do not consist of H2, but rather LNG and CNG. Hydrogen Trucks are not a thing.

Heavy Duty Vehicles (Lorries) in Finland are currently still trying to find their trajectory for transitioning to BEV, but the model is converging nicely, meaning there is a transition to BEV in the works, even though it's still in the very early stages.

🇫🇮 Finland (HDV) - November 25 - BEV Trajectory 2.0% BEV 0.0% PHEV 98.0% ICE Trailing 12 months are: 3.0% BEV 0.0% PHEV 97.0% ICE Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

Only a tiny portion of the market persists as Diesel. Petrol is the main fuel type to take the fall as BEV rise in FInland.

PHEV have begun their fall in Finland, just as expected. The market transitions from ICE->HEV->PHEV->BEV

🇫🇮 Finland - November 25 - BEV Trajectory 37.8% BEV 18.3% PHEV 43.9% ICE Trailing 12 months are: 36.0% BEV 20.4% PHEV 43.6% ICE Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

Basically no room for PHEV in Singapore. BEV are taking the market basically 1:1 from falling ICE

Singapore is no longer slowing down their BEV adoption. They're a small market, true, but they transition at an incredible rate, making the fact that this blue curve is no longer rising quite the achievement.

🇸🇬 Singapore - November 25 - BEV Trajectory 50.8% BEV 2.1% PHEV 47.1% ICE (of which 36.4%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 50.9% BEV 2.4% PHEV 46.6% ICE (of which 34.3%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

Canada is slowing down

🇨🇦 Canada - Q3 2025 - BEV Trajectory 5.7% BEV 5.5% PHEV 88.8% ICE (of which 21.1%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 7.4% BEV 3.6% PHEV 89.0% ICE (of which 19.1%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

Hadn't updated Thailand in a few months and didn't think they'd be able to keep up their insanely fast trajectory to BEV adoption. But they are somehow able to keep up with it.

HEV is not yet fully stagnant in Thailand. BEV is taking over so rapidly though that it's probably soon gonna happen.

Basically 0 demand for PHEV in Thailand. At ~618k cars per year they are about 1/3rd the size of France as a market.

🇹🇭 Thailand - November 25 - BEV Trajectory 24.1% BEV 2.4% PHEV 73.4% ICE (of which 24.3%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 18.4% BEV 2.9% PHEV 78.7% ICE (of which 21.7%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

I just had a look at the Gallery and things look hilarious since pushing the Indonesia update just now. Yes, the x-axes and y-axes are comparable ... this is actually how Indonesia compares.

I almost don't want to show you the trailing 12 months market split for Indonesia. Their current BEV share is increasing so fast that a trailing 12 months look of things is almost uselessly outdated. THAT'S how fast Indonesia is switching!

Indonesia doesn't care for PHEV. How could they even, they wouldn't even have time to think about PHEV. That's just how fast they're switching to BEV!

HOLY FUCKING SHIT How the fuck did Indonesia manage to keep up with this? I hadn't updated them in a few months and thought that no way would they be able to keep this insanity going, but alas, Indonesia is indeed somehow keeping up with this madness of a transition to BEV.

🇮🇩 Indonesia - November 25 - BEV Trajectory 24.4% BEV 0.9% PHEV 74.7% ICE (of which 10.5%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 14.2% BEV 0.7% PHEV 85.1% ICE (of which 10.2%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

Slovenia is actually accelerating their transition to BEV at the moment, and quite significantly even. I did not expect that much change since the last update.

🇸🇮 Slovenia - November 25 - BEV Trajectory 12.9% BEV 2.8% PHEV 84.2% ICE (of which 17.3%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 10.6% BEV 3.3% PHEV 86.2% ICE (of which 12.5%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

Transition to BEV is getting faster right now in Spain

🇪🇸 Spain - November 25 - BEV Trajectory 9.9% BEV 12.7% PHEV 77.4% ICE (of which 43.6%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 8.6% BEV 10.2% PHEV 81.2% ICE (of which 41.9%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

🇩🇰 Denmark (Industry) - November 25 - BEV Trajectory 43.5% BEV 1.5% PHEV 55.1% ICE Trailing 12 months are: 39.5% BEV 2.8% PHEV 57.7% ICE Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

🇩🇰 Denmark (Private) - November 25 - BEV Trajectory 90.9% BEV 1.6% PHEV 7.5% ICE Trailing 12 months are: 84.2% BEV 2.7% PHEV 13.1% ICE Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

🇩🇰 Denmark - November 25 - BEV Trajectory 73.6% BEV 1.6% PHEV 24.9% ICE Trailing 12 months are: 66.3% BEV 2.8% PHEV 30.9% ICE Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...

🇨🇱 Chile - November 25 - BEV Trajectory 1.8% BEV 1.1% PHEV 97.1% ICE (of which 11.4%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 1.8% BEV 1.0% PHEV 97.2% ICE (of which 4.7%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gall...