Canada's 2025 Federal Budget is now out. All documents are available here: budget.canada.ca/2025/home-a... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

This government's signal legacy in higher education is going to be "we torched whatever we could right across the country because we couldn't figure out how to control the southern Ontario housing market". Ford can't/won't build houses? Better knife some more rural colleges in NB or BC.

Just finished academic/admin day and looking at budget headlines. Can anyone help me parse the international student stuff? The headlines (cuts of 60% plus) look like it would be further carnage for the higher ed sector. But, maybe the *target* is being cut but the *actuals* are already there?

Budget day chez moi: I have academic and administrative matters keeping me busy all day Tuesday and Wednesday. So, I'm not available for budget interviews or hot takes. I might post here a bit on Tuesday night and I will take a deeper look by Thursday. But I will look for #budgetsnax posts!

Budget day chez moi: I have academic and administrative matters keeping me busy all day Tuesday and Wednesday. So, I'm not available for budget interviews or hot takes. I might post here a bit on Tuesday night and I will take a deeper look by Thursday. But I will look for #budgetsnax posts!

Vlad first over the boards. Gotta love it. Give him the "C" on his uni already...

That lineup is as good as it is gonna get. If it were up to me Bam Bam is 5th and Varsh is 7th, but that's just a little quibble. Bo on wobbly knees at 2b is a bit nerve-wracking and I wonder how George will handle a hard swing, but otherwise LFG!

Love this choice. Kids, before there was Varsho. before there was KK, there was Devo. www.youtube.com/watch?v=ekQ7... (BTW, Gruber *did* tag the runner on the heel so that *was* a triple play....) 7 Gold Gloves in centre field, including all five years he was with the Jays.

The large increase in steel tariffs under GW Bush did not cause an increase in steel-industry employment. But it did hurt the US industries that use steel to make things, reducing employment there long after the tariffs were gone. New in @aeajournals.bsky.social —> doi.org/10.1257/pol....

You might have heard the phrase, "Correlation does not imply causation," but what does that actually mean? Hear from Profs Siwan Anderson, Patrick Francois and @rjuhasz.bsky.social as they break down the importance of causal inference in economic research: youtu.be/YSa7S8W7obs

Meet the Vancouver School of Economics’ 2025/26 PhD job market candidates! View their profiles here: economics.ubc.ca/people/phd-j... @plbeauregard.bsky.social

Scary @ubcvse.bsky.social Halloween pumpkins. Which is scariest?

Vancouver School of Economics @ubcvse.bsky.social MA program info session: This Weds Oct 29th, 9-10am PDT. Learn about: * our new inequality stream * our new computation stream * lots more! Website: economics.ubc.ca/graduate/mas... Registration: www.grad.ubc.ca/form/webform...

In Paris to give the keynote lecture to La Colloque Retraite et Vielleissement, sponsored by La Caisse de Dépôt, la Chaire ESoPS, et la fondation Panthéon Sorbonne/Université Paris I. I'm presenting in French, which is a first for me. (This may be crazy?) But I'm looking forward to it!

Tarps off, get on the police horse, and LFG!!!!!

Defence!

Adding to my list: The Time of Your Life: On the Economics of Longevity and Mortality, with @kevinmilligan.bsky.social (which happens to showcase some of the work we've loved doing for the past few years!) share.transistor.fm/s/dcdabb47

MASON FLUHARTY ⚾

Darn Jays are in a bad streak right now. But I recovered my mood by watching the 7th 8th and 9th of the MIA NYY game. Yankenfreude felt GREAT.

No other way to slice it: this is incredibly fucked up.

A powerful earthquake off the coast of eastern Russia has prompted a tsunami watch for much of the British Columbia coast. globalnews.ca/news/1131050...

Be like Max, kids...

Enjoyed some Yankenfreude last night listening to this.... www.youtube.com/live/FjM4Ukb...

64 ICONIC SYMBOLS 1 CHAMPION THE SEARCH FOR BRITISH COLUMBIA'S BEST SYMBOL BEGINS NOW

Garden Saturday: Lamb's ear: looks tasty but 🦌 dont eat! Brunnera: big healthy patch. Deer fern: in spite of the name, 🦌 don't eat it. Mewr cats among the Japanese tassle ferns.

For the 2026 World Baseball Classic, here's a possible Canadian roster: C: B Naylor, Hicks 1B: Freeman, J Naylor 2B: Joulien SS: ?? 3B: Toro OF: O'Neill, D Clarke, Jared Young SP: Pivetta, Quantrill, Soroka RP: Brash, Cade Smith, Sabrowski, Zastryzny Not bad. Looks like a .500 MLB team to me.

SOLE "Oh Canada!" Session, Friday 9:45-11 "Investing in Mothers? The Long-Run Impact of a Universal Childcare Program on Maternal Work and Income" Presented by Michael Baker, @econuoft.bsky.social , coauthors J. Gruber and @kevinmilligan.bsky.social submissions.mirasmart.com/SOLE2025/Iti...

Got a little Eibsee Rundgang in before Frühstuck. The trails here are very....civilized. Also, no the water was not stinky. Next up this morning: the cable car up to Zugspitze.

"AllTrails has a new generative AI feature that can be asked to 'shorten my route' or 'make this more scenic.' But the people in charge of searching for lost hikers say the feature is going to exacerbate an issue they’ve been warning about for years: hiking apps providing false information."

If you have 10 minutes to read about trade policy, read the chapter on 7 questions by Andres and Arnaud. If you 20 minutes, also read my chapter (with Thierry, Pauline, and Vincent) on Auto tariffs. @cepr.org

Funniest part of the Jays game was after Straw was pulled out of the game, both Roden and Schneider were like excited puppies hoping to be chosen to play. Put me in, coach! I'm ready to play. Centrefield.

This is the "deal" that UK and US made. Fake "emergency" tariffs stay at 10%. Steel tariffs stay. If this is what's on offer for Canada, we should walk away. bbc.com/news/article... Only upside is that UK gave up very little--allowed a bit more agricultural imports tariff free. Includes tacos?

Trying some new things. Apple twist and ostrich fern are new. Fuzzy leaves so should be ok for deer resistance, but OTOH looks good and it's called "apple twist" so we will see.... The lamb's ear is from last year. Its huge; it's grown 8x in size so we had to separate them more.

I get the sentiment that underlies this. I too think we should strengthen ties with the EU. Economically, militarily, socially. But EU *membership* would be a very bad thing. The basic reason is we are not in Europe. Geographically, economically. (Also legally. Article 49 says must be European.)

好 不 好 吃? Picked this up at Kuo Hua the other day.....Garlic prawn Doritos!

[Watching Jays on PVR] Dan: so when did you first meet Kirk? Caleb: in 2020 when he was called up. I was DFA'd. Dan: .......uh

Watch the accounting on this: cahs vs accrual accounting issues matter a lot here, since much spending is on capital. If you're buying equipment, would be *very* hard to have big immediate increase under accrual. If it's salaries, much easier to boost right away.

For those like @kevinmilligan.bsky.social @stillots1.bsky.social asking me a month ago about the impact of the US #tariffs on our supply chain, this morning's CBC radio feature on customs brokers tasked with unraveling all the chaos is worthwhile (article or 23 min audio). #cdnecon #cdnpoli #tariffs

Federal government debt service to GDP ratio, 1870-2024. The 2024 data point is lower than any point between 1918 and 2011. The 2021 to 2024 jump is mostly due to increased interest rates; unless rates jump a lot further the interest/GDP should start to flatten out with relatively stable debt/GDP.

EXTREMELY BAD NEWS for economic research, per former BLS Commissioner @ericagroshen.bsky.social on LinkedIn. BLS is suspending access to its restricted data "for the forseeable future." Applies to projects through the Federal Statistical Research Data Centers & onsite projects with BLS. #EconSky

Ever wonder about the totem pole on the South side of the Iona Building? From Kevin Ward: "The pole is titled All My Relations, and it was designed and carved by Jack (Jackie) La-Sah Timothy from the Sliammon First Nation, near Powell River, B.C." fnhl.ubc.ca/2025/05/27/a...

This is a good read from @trevortombe.bsky.social on internal trade. Given the current policy momentum, it is super helpful to have guidance on *which* areas of internal trade the gains from liberalization would be strongest and should be prioritized. Trevor's answer: it's services, not beer.

MLB looking to implement the ball/strike challenge system in 2026. I like it. Each team gets 2 challenges. www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/06/mlb-...

Inspired by @kevinmilligan.bsky.social, I wrote up a version of my notes for the CEA panel on tax and transfer policy. open.substack.com/pub/robsonj/...

Watch the video to learn about @ubcvse.bsky.social student Abul Bashar Rahman who is studying economics and climate change. He's in the Bachelor of International Economics program. The BIE is a cohort-based direct-entry program here at the VSE. Learn more here: economics.ubc.ca/undergraduat...

Frustrated upon seeing poor Bangladeshi representation in global climate conversations, Abul Bashar Rahman (BIE '25) cycled across his home country collecting stories to create what would become the documentary, "Stories of Change." He screened it at COP28 See it on YouTube: youtu.be/sZdO4_yhJp0

Tsawwassen⛴️ Swartz Bay.

Also congratulations to Purvis Prize winners from the Bank of Canada, Xu Zhang, Olena Kostyshyna and Monica Jain (who's moving to the Laurier Econ Department!) for their paper "How do people view wage and price inflation" www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

And to @paupujolas.bsky.social and Oliver Loertscher who received an honorable mention for their work on oil production and productivity in Canada: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...