Is Canada already in a recession? My latest for @TheHubCanada explores the latest data thehub.ca/2025/09/17/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

From today's jobs report, Canada's unemployment rate rises to 7.1% (up 0.5 points this year). Alberta has seen a notable increase to 8.4% (the highest since 2017, excl. covid). More from StatCan here: www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

A separate Alberta would be a poorer Alberta. My latest for @TheHubCanada on the fiscal and economic fantasies of those promoting independence: thehub.ca/2025/07/24/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Canada’s 5 percent of GDP defence spending commitment comes with a fiscal reckoning. And it's more than an 'operating budget' problem. My latest for @TheHubCanada explores the future of the federal budget: thehub.ca/2025/07/10/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Did retaliatory tariffs affect Canadian imports from the U.S.? And what about consumer boycotts? Some new data provides some early answers. My latest for @TheHubCanada: thehub.ca/2025/06/25/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

What a higher NATO military spending target means for Canada's finances. My latest for @TheHubCanada on the potential for a 3.5%+1.5% target for NATO members: thehub.ca/2025/06/12/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Liberalizing trade within Canada has long been a challenge. But recent moves by governments right across Canada are making big improvements, led by Atlantic Canada. My new report with PPF explores some the potential gains: ppforum.ca/policy-spea... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

How much did the carbon tax actually impact inflation? My latest for @TheHubCanada: thehub.ca/2025/05/22/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Today's inflation data: avg prices rose 1.7% in April vs last year. Absent carbon taxes, inflation would have been 2.3% in April (see: www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/...). This 0.6% effect validates research (incl. by myself and @dr_jen_winter) on the effect of CTaxes. #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Even when Canada's regional diversity causes tension (and, dare I say, alienation), it can be a good thing. My latest for @TheHubCanada: thehub.ca/2025/05/15/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Curious about the history and functioning of federal-provincial transfers in Canada? Here's a paper unpacking it all: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers... Seems like it might become topical again in #cdnpoli and #ableg

It's been a month since Canada's federal consumer carbon price was eliminated. With the latest data from this morning, the effect on gasoline prices remains clear: nearly the full value of tax cut was passed to consumers. #cdnecon

Today’s data: the StatCan payroll report! Employment down slightly in February, mainly due to a drop in education, while average earnings reach nearly $1.3k per week, up 5.4% over this time last year. Details: www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu... #cdnecon

Now that the CPC platform is out, I can post an update to the debt/GDP trajectories. The CPC document includes assumed revenue gains that many, including me, find dubious. So, I've put lines showing their numbers with/without the assumed revenue gains. I'm using PBO GDP as demominator.

In an uncertain world, with no shortage of future demands on public finances, Canada would benefit from a credible & sustainable fiscal strategy. Unfortunately, the LPC platform would take us further from that goal. My latest for @TheHubCanada here: thehub.ca/2025/04/21/... #cdnpoli #cdnecon

The next government will set the Bank of Canada's mandate. It's an issue receiving little attention. My latest for @TheHubCanada on the value of targeting inflation and nothing more: thehub.ca/2025/04/17/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

The S&P 500 has lost 10.5% of its value in two days. Since 1980, we've only seen larger declines three other times: the '87 crash, Nov 2008, and Mar 2020. And those weren't due to policy choices. This may be the largest self-imposed destruction of wealth ever.

Yesterday, @trevortombe.bsky.social and I changed some thoughts on whether and how to retaliate. Last night I saw this from Olivier Blanchard. Both Trevor and I could claim alignment with Blanchard, depending on which highlighted section you think is right.

If you do this since 1929, it's even worse. Today was worse than 99.6% of trading days since 1929. It was the 95th worst day of all time (out of >24,000 days), and the 35th worst day since 1945.

How bad was today's stock market decline? Of the 11,406 trading days since January 1980, only 29 had larger declines.

The meaningful costs we can impose aren't to 'the US economy' writ large but about political pressure points. When you have CEOs from Kentucky's bourbon industry on CNN complaining about Trump's tariffs because some CDN provinces pulled US alcohol from shelves, that's huge.

Political scientist here: The goal of retaliation is not only PR or communication. The goal is also political: to contribute to political pressures. The American senate resolution yesterday is not a magic solution, but it is a first step in building a coalition against tariffs in the US.

When Kevin disagrees, I take note. He captures my perspective well here. I put a lot of weight on domestic costs of our actions and don't think much of what we could do would matter, so draw a different conclusion. I could be wrong, of course. Interesting debate!

Some great new analysis by @TaxFoundation on the latest U.S. tariff developments: taxfoundation.org/research/al... The U.S. is now set to have the highest average tax on imports since 1933.

If there’s one lesson from the 1930s, it’s that doubling down on protectionism and retaliation will only deepen Canada’s economic pain. My latest for @TheHubCanada on the last time a trade war was a part of a Canadian election: thehub.ca/2025/04/03/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Has eliminating the federal retail carbon tax lowered gasoline prices? Yes. With two days of data now, here's my estimate of the effect. Drop appears to fully reflect the tax change. (Note: no change CTax in QC, so that's a nice comparator.) #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Duelling tax cuts from the Liberals and Conservatives may improve family budgets—but they'll do little for the economy. My latest for @TheHubCanada thehub.ca/2025/03/27/... #cdnecon

Quick estimate of the two major personal income tax cuts proposed so far this campaign. Effect varies across families (depends on income/credits/etc). Average for census family is ~$250 for LPC's proposal and ~$570 for CPC's. #cdnecon

The proposed changes in personal income tax cuts by the LPC and CPC affect different individuals/families differently. Depends on what credits you claim, your income, number of earners in the family, etc. Here's my estimate of the full distribution of changes. #cdnecon

Comparing GDP/capita growth across OECD countries over the past decade (plus selected aggregates like EU/G7/etc). #cdnecon

"The next federal government has an opportunity to take a Canada-first approach by eliminating unnecessary regulations, restoring investor confidence, and reducing costs for Canadians." Good read by Adam Legge today in @TheHubCanada: thehub.ca/2025/03/17/... #cdnecon

"Forty years later, we’re due for another big rethink about Canada’s future." Interesting new piece from Charles Breton (@charlesbreton) on the potential value of a new Royal Commission on the future of Canada's economy. policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/m... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

With hundreds of thousands of jobs at risk due to U.S. tariffs, the electoral risks associated with liberalizing internal trade now seem much less daunting. New piece with @danielbeland, @diyajiangg, and me in today's @globeandmail: www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/art... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

From StatCan this morning, the latest financial data for households in Q4 2024 shows a further decline in debt service costs. 14.4% of disposable income went to debt payments, down from 15.1% at peak and back to late 2017 levels. www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu... #cdnecon

It was great to present to the Alberta Chambers of Commerce meeting today! A lot of economic developments going on, and they've done great work advocating for better policy to improve growth in #cdnecon.

I really enjoyed this @FrontBurnerCBC podcast on the Canada-U.S. trade war with @ArmineYalnizyan and @andrew_leach! They both gives excellent insight into how this might affect Canadians and some of the policy ideas out there. Give it a listen: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/... #cdnecon

A really thoughtful piece by @ChadBown and @D_A_Irwin exploring point-by-point the case made for tariffs by the U.S. Administration. Give it a read! www.foreignaffairs.com/united-stat... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Bank of Canada lowers its main policy rate to 2.75% this morning. Details: www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/03/fad... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

How much could consumer prices in Canada rise due to the phase-one retaliatory tariffs vs the U.S.? I take a stab at answering that in my latest for @TheHubCanada here: thehub.ca/2025/03/11/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

U.S. debt completely unsustainable. The result: higher borrowing costs. Never before (at least since 1870) has their govt borrowing rate exceeded Canada’s by as much as it does now. My latest for @TheHubCanada: thehub.ca/2025/03/06/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Not since the Great Depression have Canada-US tariffs risen as broadly or as sharply. Uncertainty is now double the COVID peak. My latest for @TheHubCanada roughly quantifies the effect on investment and employment. It’s not pretty: thehub.ca/2025/03/04/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

With tariffs coming tomorrow, improving Canada's economic union is more important than ever. My latest for @MLInstitute argues that instead of waiting for a national solution, provinces can take unilateral action to do just that: macdonaldlaurier.ca/breaking-ba... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Fascinating conversation on competition policy at the School of Public Policy's Productivity Initiative in Ottawa today! Great to have Robin Shaban, Matthew Chiasson, and Jennifer Quaid sharing their insights! #cdnecon

Withholding funds is the Fed’s best weapon against internal trade barriers. My latest for @TheHubCanada on how to push provinces to act: thehub.ca/2025/02/20/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Retaliatory tariffs simply won’t move the needle in the U.S. as much as we might like. My latest for @TheHubCanada: thehub.ca/2025/02/06/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

And we move into a new era of performative trade war

So Canada and Mexico win

The latest index of economic uncertainty is out! Jan 2025 saw the highest level of uncertainty in decades. As expected. From policy to politics to trade, uncertainty is high across the board. Potentially shrinks #cdnecon and lowers business investment. www.policyuncertainty.com/canada_mont...

Which exporting states are most impacted by Canada's initial tariff retaliation of 25% on exports totaling $30 billion? Here is my initial estimate. #cdnecon

Quick calcs: U.S. tariff is on 80% of #cdnecon exports (not on services), trade-weighted average rate of 15% (25% goods; 10% energy). If U.S. demand falls in proportion to the tariff (to illustrate), then that's a $160 billion hit ($100b direct + $60b upstream), ~3% of total.