I appreciate @trevortombe.bsky.social's POV, but... I tend to take a different starting point on some of this - First, he's right that mechanically, the overall (age 15+) participation rate drops when the pop ages. But it's important to point out that within age groups, people are working more

Canada’s population is aging quickly. But that doesn’t have to slow us down. My latest for @TheHubCanada on some cool new research and what it may mean for Canada: thehub.ca/2026/07/16/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Some argue Canada should abandon equalization altogether, but the better path is to renew the entire system of transfers. My latest for @MLInstitute offers a simple, more transparent, more growth-oriented, and more sustainable option: macdonaldlaurier.ca/rebalancing... #cdnpoli #cdnecon

While oil prices have returned to their pre-war levels, Alberta's fiscal situation remains dramatically improved. Accumulated surpluses since April means lower oil prices are needed to balance. AB is on track for modest surplus. A +$10B improvement.

Roughly, there’s ~$800 billion in taxpayer-funded education sitting outside the province that paid for it. With Alberta and B.C. the largest beneficiaries. My latest for @TheHubCanada on the largest financial transfer nobody talks about: thehub.ca/2026/07/02/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

The preliminary labour productivity statistics for 2025 are out: www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu... PEI leads at 4.9%, with AB and NL next up at 3.8%. National growth was 0.7%. #cdnecon

From this morning's inflation report, Canada's overall rate is up 0.9% compared to start of year. That's half the increase seen in the U.S. Why the difference? I explain in a piece for @TheHubCanada here (from last Thurs): thehub.ca/2026/06/19/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Canada's inflation rate rose to 3.2% in May. What's behind the surge? Oil prices. That's it. Most other important components are pulling down the overall rate. #cdnecon 🧵

Why is Canada’s inflation rate so much lower than the U.S.? It’s not because our prices are rising more slowly. My latest for @TheHubCanada explains: thehub.ca/2026/06/19/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

ICYMI: Economic weakness combined with rising inflation is a dilemma for monetary policy. To balance these risks, we've held our policy rate at 2.25%. We are committed to maintaining Canadians’ confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. 👉 https://bit.ly/49ZE0z7

The more freely Canadians can live, work, and do business across the country, the more the value of the federation shows up in ordinary life. My latest on how doubling down on Canada's economic union might help with separatism: thehub.ca/2026/06/04/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

The stakes in this referendum are too high to sit it out. We need to build a solid case, not just for staying put, but for a stronger Alberta within a better Canada. That's why I'm joining other prominent conservatives in making the case for Alberta to lead, not leave. www.leadnotleave.ca

The status quo is not desirable, but a referendum on separation is even less so. Alberta must lead, not leave. www.readtheline.ca/p/alberta-m... #cdnpoli #ableg

“Opinions among Albertans overall about their province’s treatment in the Canadian federation have been steadily improving” but there has been also been “a steady polarization of opinions.” Check out the latest Confederation of Tomorrow report: environicsinstitute.org/spotlight-o... #cdnpoli

For all the noise around Western alienation, separatist petitions, and fed-prov fights, Albertans and other Canadians agree on more than they disagree. My latest with Brooks Decillia for @TheHubCanada with new survey results: thehub.ca/2026/04/30/... #cdnpoli #cdnecon

My latest on how we need to stop treating the public square like a political science seminar. We need to return to the basics -- three cardinal rules -- if we are to stall the decline of liberal democracy. edmontonjournal.com/opinion/colu...

We’re hiring a Manager for Canada’s Productivity Initiative at @UCaglary! It's a great opportunity to help build a national partnership connecting universities, governments, and policy leaders. If it sounds like a fit, take a look and please share: careers.ucalgary.ca/jobs/176253...

Our governments’ finances face a growth problem, not just a budget problem. My latest for @TheHubCanada on why productivity changes everything: thehub.ca/2026/04/01/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Oil prices (WTI) ended March just under $102/bbl. Adjusted for inflation, that's the second largest monthly $/bbl increase ever and the third largest % increase. #cdnecon

Alberta's fiscal year ends in two weeks. With oil prices up, the government's deficit forecast of $4.1 billion is now on track for roughly half that. #ableg

What do rising oil prices mean for Canadian households? In my latest for @TheHubCanada, I estimate the costs for gasoline, energy, and (just as importantly!) all other goods and services throughout the supply chain. Overall, about $1,000/yr/household. thehub.ca/2026/03/18/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Have Alberta's finances gone off the rails? My latest for @TheHubCanada on the province's latest budget. thehub.ca/2026/03/03/... #ableg #cdnpoli #cdnecon

So excited to welcome Doug Irwin (@D_A_Irwin) to Calgary in a few weeks for the 2026 Distinguished Lecture in Economics! It will be a must-hear talk on all the trade policy changes happening today. 🤓 All are welcome! Details here: events.ucalgary.ca/arts/econom... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

The hidden costs of political uncertainty are high. We can see that in Canada's job market today. And there's a lesson for those who view Alberta separatism as a costless protest vote. It isn't. My latest for @TheHubCanada: thehub.ca/2026/02/19/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Canada has a productivity problem. Research can help. A new piece from me in @nationalpost on a broad partnership to build new tools, evidence, and talent to raise living standards and strengthen prosperity for decades to come. nationalpost.com/opinion/can... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Thrilled for the 7th event in @policy_school’s Canada’s Productivity Initiative in partnership with Rotman, featuring insight from Carolyn Rogers, Bill Morneau, Susan Black, Glenda Crisp, and so many more. Livestream available: community.rotman.utoronto.ca/events/s/sp... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Rising separatist sentiment could come with real risks to jobs and income. I estimate nearly 2 million jobs depend on interprovincial trade with Alberta and Quebec. My latest for @TheHubCanada here: thehub.ca/2026/02/04/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

New population projections from Statistics Canada suggest that Alberta may become the third largest province within a decade, although much depends on the level of interprovincial migration. www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Very happy to have contributed to the latest research from the IMF on internal trade in Canada. Summary here 👇 "Canada Can Grow Faster by Unlocking Its Own Market" www.imf.org/en/news/art... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Excellent 'On The Line' podcast episode on central bank independence, and understanding the latest threats to the US Fed. Jen Gerson and Chris Ragan: www.readtheline.ca/p/will-the-u... #cdnpoli #cdnecon

Sharing this new @irpp.org paper on #internaltrade by Diya Jiang, @trevortombe.bsky.social and I: “The Politics of Internal Trade: Narratives, Public Opinion and Canadian Federalism” @mcgillpolisci.bsky.social @cpsa-acsp.bsky.social centre.irpp.org/research-stu...

Alberta's "royalty rollercoaster" is larger than ever. Oil price moves now cost the government ~5x more per $1/bbl than a decade ago. Something will have to give. And soon. My latest for @TheHubCanada on Alberta's upcoming fiscal challenges: thehub.ca/2026/01/08/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

"If you read a book in 2025—just one book—you belong to an endangered species...fewer than half of Americans had read a single book in the previous 12 months; only 38 percent had read a novel or short story." www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...

Statistics Canada (Sean Clarke + Andrew Fields) finds Canada's 2025 employment drop stemmed from industries reliant on U.S. exports. The cause? Not increased layoffs, but reduced hiring rates. (Maybe b/c high uncertainty.) Details: www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/36-2... #cdnecon

Interesting new Statistics Canada paper on firm sizes and the Canada-U.S. productivity gap. Shows most of our gap is due to Canada having more small firms (less productive). But most of the widening gap is due to large firms lagging. Details: www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/36-2... #cdnecon

New estimates of the federal government's long term fiscal trajectory from the PBO released earlier this week shows almost all of the federal fiscal room since FES2024 is used up now: www.pbo-dpb.ca/en/addition... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Really enjoyed contributing to this Alberta Views dialogue on equalization! 👇

Tegan Hill: Yes, Albertans will contribute roughly $4.2-billion to equalization this year while receiving no direct benefit @trevortombe.bsky.social: No, equalization is funded by federal taxes paid by individuals at the same rate across the country albertaviews.ca/equalization... #ABleg #CndPoli

An incredibly fascinating new paper by Casey Pender and Vincent Geloso (@VincentGeloso) on what we can learn from the most significant period of Canadian economic convergence with the U.S. Read it here: www.policyschool.ca/wp-content/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli @policy_school

As Alberta completes its first full year without coal in its power supply mix, renewables (wind, solar, and hydro) have reached 22% of total generation and natural gas makes up 78%.

Waiting for a return to “normal” is a mistake. A new era for Canada’s economy has already begun. My latest for @TheHubCanada on what the biggest economic stories of 2025 mean for Canada's future: thehub.ca/2025/12/11/... #cdnpoli #cdnecon

Strong jobs report from StatCan this morning. Employment rose 54k in November, and unemployment fell to 6.5%, down 0.6 points from its peak. More details here: www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu... #cdnecon

Today's data: GDP growth for the third quarter of 2025. Positive growth of 0.6% compared to Q2 (annualized rate of 2.6%). A strong report overall, headline growth beat expectations. Details from StatCan here: www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu... #cdnecon

Full text of the agreement between the federal and Alberta governments is available here: www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/bac... It's big. Strong commitments for a new pipeline to the west coast, and significant increases in climate policy stringency in AB to go along with it.

An important step for internal trade! The “Canadian Mutual Recognition Agreement” signed yesterday could yield real economic gains: www.ctvnews.ca/canada/arti... For some analysis on what MR means, see this by me and Ryan Manucha: macdonaldlaurier.ca/liberalizin... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Today's data: inflation 📈 www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu... Consumer prices rose 2.2% since October 2024. But since it matters what you buy, experiences vary. Lower-income, single renters faced highest increases. Relevant to understand affordability concerns. #cdnecon #cdnpoli

ICYMI, @mattgalloway.bsky.social set up @trevortombe.bsky.social and I for a rich "two sides" convo about Tuesday's budget and what matters. We follow @armstrongcbc.bsky.social's excellent Econ101 explanation of the meaning of deficits and debts. www.cbc.ca/listen/live-...

The federal budget hopes to boost growth by ~0.7%/yr (+3.5% by 2030). Even if we exceed U.S. growth by that much, we won't regain our pre-2015 position until 2050. My latest for @TheHubCanada on our long-term challenge ahead: thehub.ca/2025/11/12/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

It was billed as an investment budget—and in its framing, it’s right about the problem. But on the numbers, it offers more continuity than change. My contribution to @TheHubCanada’s roundup on Budget 2025: thehub.ca/2025/11/05/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Big news relevant for Alberta and the oil and gas sector: the emissions cap will be scrapped. Emissions to decline using other tools. There's merit to this decision. The policy had considerable drawbacks, even from a narrow climate policy perspective: thehub.ca/2023/04/20/...