I am doing well but my own sentiment is in the tank. I don't do much social media but it seeps into everything

This is an absolute show-stopper of a chart from Dr. David Kelly at JPM, it shows the complete and utter disconnect between consumer sentiment and the stock market. We have never before seen such a disconnect between how people are feeling and how they're actually doing.

"Both total nonfarm payroll employment (+57,000) and the unemployment rate (4.2 percent) changed little in June." Well below consensus and previous 2 months revised down sharply.

Great chart from Kevin Gordon at Schwab (from Vandatrack)

This is CORE inflation, while headline goes over 4%. If the Fed has even the most lukewarm commitment to a 2% inflation target, they have to hike rates.

I say this with all seriousness. If you are looking for any war news to move the market down, I think you are looking in the wrong place.

A livestream of a volcano in the Philippines captured a meteor crashing to Earth today. What are the odds? Mayon Volcano, Location: Albay, Luzon, Philippines

U.S. NATIONAL DEBT OFFICIALLY HITS $39 TRILLION, RISING BY APPROXIMATELY $5 BILLION PER DAY SINCE OCTOBER - REPORTS

The Fed rate cut debate is over; the rate hike debate has begun www.wsj.com/economy/cent...

Good morning. Here is your Monday morning attempt at boosting stocks. Who needs prediction markets when he is so predictable?

Wowsa. I am a full time trader and I dont trade this much.

Data today continues to show that US manufacturing is weak and softening. Quite the contrast to all the folks around here desperately trying to make the case that some kind of boom is happening.

NAAIM Exposure 77 Color me surprised.

No sign of an increase in US oil production since the war began.

funniest thing i’ve ever seen

Yesterday's VIX put/call ratio was .16. Second time sub 20 in a week.

Brent crude oil highest settle in almost 4 years $114

Kolanovic.

TUDOR JONES: “.. We're 252% of stock market cap-to-GDP. In 1929 we were 65%. In 1987 we got to ~85-90%. In 2000, 170%. “.. Since 1970, we get a mean reversion about every 10 years. Let's say mean revert to the past 25 or 30-year PE. That would be a 30, 35% decline.” youtu.be/S31J5ACsOqU?...

As I read the news today it is crystal clear that our most pressing need as a nation is a new ballroom for our leader.

What a crazy story. And scary

Dan Schulman is the new CEO of Verizon and he is predicting 20 to 30% unemployment within the next 2 to 5 years due to AI. Not a typo. He thinks 1/3 of people currently employed will lose their jobs by 2030.

Zillow: "Zillow economists just published their updated 12-month forecast, projecting that U.S. home prices—as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index—will shift +0.0% between March 2026 and March 2027." With 3% inflation, that is a decline in real prices.

😬 THAT'S NOT GOOD – The Air Force VIP jet (SAM236 – tail: 99-0004) departs Pakistan after only a few hours on the ground 👀

(Bloomberg) - Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson called on US authorities to prepare a back-up plan in order to avert a potential collapse in demand for Treasuries — an event that he warned would have “vicious” effects. @bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

I am traveling but still trying to keep up. So is it a taco or is he going to nuke a whole country. What the he'll is happening?

WTI Oil at $114.56 (gasoline will be close to $5 nationally if this gets above $120)

Markets are still pricing the Strait reopening within a ~month and pretty significant supply normalization by summer. That's why stocks aren't down more imo:

The meme crowd starts trading oil.

I have really been trying to understand the reason for Iran. From what I can tell Jared convinced Trump that bombing Iran would make him popular and Trump and Hegseth really like watching stuff blow up on the screens. I cant seem to find any other reason that makes sense

How hedged up are folks? The ETF put/call ratio's 21 dma is now higher than during the Tariff Tantrum.

Uggh

The Iranian response to the US peace proposal is expected later today - CBS Reporter citing sources familiar with the matter.

#$SPY Structural Update (Mar 27): Major new Put Wall at $640 (45k OI). This is safety net for Friday. Price $645.09 is deep in Negative Gamma. Volatility expands here as dealers must sell into drops to hedge. Pivot: Hold $645 for a relief bounce to $648; lose $644 for a swift flush to the $640 floor

Kolanovic.

RAPIDAN: “.. Fade speculation on a near-term US-Iran ceasefire – renewed escalation is likely as early as this weekend. .. oil prices aren’t high enough to drive urgency or concessions from Washington, while Iranian hardliners still believe they can hold out for months ..”

Goldman Sachs' Lloyd Blankfein warns Iran war fallout 'is going to last' even if 'there's a resolution tomorrow'

I am trying to just trade what I see (which means some bullish trades but longer term I am trying to shore up my entire financial house. I might be reading too much news but I don't think the market is pricing what has already happened. trade what you see and everything is short term these days

Monday was the first day since November 2023 where retail investors flipped to selling. https://sherwood.news/markets/retail-traders-are-retreating-from-single-stocks/

Huge swing across markets since Trump's Truth Social post claiming Iran has offered a "present" to the US. SPY +1% after-hours, crude getting smoked and EMFX ripping.

It's weird that the new normal is that we have to try to track down info from Iran or the middle east to check to see how much and about what our own President is lying about.

So this would explain the statements from Iran: they're not talking to Trump, and really it's not even the government talking to Americans.

Where's @carlquintanilla.bsky.social today?

This one is good

Ocean Grove to Minnesota. Cool.

Brent curve is pricing in a $100 average oil price for the rest of the year.

The war in Iran could trigger a global food shock • More than 1.1mn tonnes of fertiliser and fertiliser inputs is currently stuck in the Gulf • Shortages are starting during northern hemisphere’s planting season, raising the risk of lower harvests for staples like rice www.ft.com/content/1054...

CBS News reports more detailed preparations for ground troops in Iran. No decision made yet, options are being prepared for presentation to the President.

Here is the Mamis Chart. Sentiment does not always go in order but great chart to keep an eye on. We have an overt warning today. Does not mean we fall apart just means worth watching. I suspect we will find are area soon that will be defended and that area will be the big tell.

Everyone immediately decided the market bounced on a flimsy untrustworthy headline, I guess that settles it then. Because a market that grabs for any faint excuse to stop going down can't be telling us anything worth listening to. Crude traders must also have been duped, oil slipping 3%...