I keep seeing articles about investors shifting money to international assets, it's a long-term trend etc etc. But since the third week in April the S&P has steadily out-performed international developed stocks.

I would like to invite you to pay well over 100X earnings for the future king of self-driving...if you can overlook the periodic running of red lights that might kill you or someone else...

The US is two economies--the top 20% are responsible for 51% of consumer spending. If you are in that cohort, everything is fine. If you are outside, the noose of slowly rising prices, expensive cars, houses, health and home insurance, electricity prices is tightening

Junk bond rally stalls. With about an 80% chance for two rate cuts in the next two meetings priced, there is not a lot of room for bonds to rally from here. Tight credit spreads are another reason that high yield debt seems particularly unattractive now.

Steep dollar fall seems to be over for now, creating a headwind for international assets versus USD heading into year-end.

From Torsten Slok at Apollo. Could not agree more. Focus on real return--that skimpy number is likely contributing to gold's supercharged rally.

It falls upon the WSJ to finally show some reality-based data that demonstrates Trump and Prime Minister Miller are lying daily about Portland protests. www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

International developed stocks crushed the US to start the year to the S&P April low, but since then the US and its AI hype have steadily out-performed rest of developed world. After all, nowhere else in that universe has the stimulative policy mix of US

We didn't think financial conditions could get any looser but we were wrong. We now have loose financial conditions, a massive and growing fiscal deficit, rate cuts going into rising inflation, and hundreds of billions being thrown at data centers. Why wouldn't there be a bubble forming??

The deficit is exploding despite tariff revenue and performative firings of government workers. We are on a one-way train that is accelerating into the tunnel.

We will be lamenting the Trump shunning of green power for decades.

Can there be any doubt that this is a bubble just waiting for the piece of bad news to come that acts as a catalyst for a steep decline that feeds off itself? on.ft.com/4hiKI5X

The US is losing its self-sufficiency in food, rapidly.

The probability of two rate cuts by December meeting have gone from low 20s to low 40s percent--in a week. Great environment for asset price appreciation, as we wave goodbye to a 2% inflation target.

The tariffs are making us so rich we can afford to subsidize all the parts of the economy the tariffs destroy--that's just 3d chess economic policies right there.... www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

A quote from James Anderson, a very successful tech investor in Europe, in today's FT. Hard to argue with this directionally....

Wow, this is a strong op-ed on Ukraine on.ft.com/4pUHsl6

Great Argentina piece by Brad Setser who is one of the best on international finance. Basically, without insisting on the right conditionality, the US could well blow through the funds it gives to Argentina. Argentina is unmatched in burning through other people's money. on.ft.com/3Iq4QpH

It happens slowly--measured in quarters or years--but the degradation of institutions in the US will 100% lead to a poorer country as companies wake up to the realization that the rule of law no longer holds. on.ft.com/4pKyDKt

Not a great looking five day chart for QQQ...let's see if the selling feeds on itself with tons of imbedded profits and Q4 arriving (and portfolio manager bonus season...) or people continue to believe and buy the dip. This chart doesn't give encouraging evidence of the latter....

When the AI bubble bursts, it might not take down the mega-cap tech companies but it will take down the economy for some time and there is nothing that lower rates can do about it. www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-b...

Odds of two rate cuts by the December meeting have fallen by 20% in a week.

Bonds were priced for an aggressive rate cutting cycle after the Fed cut. Now, the narrative is shifting more towards where the Fed probably wants it to be--no need to be in a hurry to cut rates. Credit spreads also widening today; time to avoid bonds till dust settles and a little value opens up.

Why are the Democrats not hammering, every single day, the enormous corruption--in plain sight--of the Trump administration? open.substack.com/pub/deklepto...

"Opposing technological progress would hasten the coming of the Antichrist"..." This is pretty off the rails even for a Murdoch franchise www.wsj.com/tech/peter-t...

Anything that might give you joy is hereby cancelled … www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Sorry, but tariffs are likely to be forever with us, as no President can walk away from significant revenue when the deficit is exploding and tax and spending promises will continue to be made. (From Torsten Slok of Apollo)

Rates Exuberance and Asset Prices: open.substack.com/pub/barrinea...

Henry Farrell with an absolutely stellar piece on the problems of confronting authoritarians: it's a coordination problem. open.substack.com/pub/programm...

From Torsten Slok at Apollo--upward earnings revisions are all about AI this year, rest of market earnings seen to be treading water--appropriate for an iffy economy.

A solid thesis is that the 2% inflation target is going to be consigned to the dustbin of history over the next few months

With inflation at 3%, this is the rates path the market is seeing...if you can pick the point on this line that the market suddenly realizes its wrong, that is a good equity short...good luck!

Sharpest increase in import prices since January--was expected to come at -0.1%. This does not include tariffs, but it does indicate that prices are not being lowered to try to make up for tariff taxes, which does not bode well for future inflation.

More state sanctioned murder from the US military.

All the sectors where investors and ETF-builders find value, cash flow, dividends, etc.....have gotten hammered on a relative basis in the last three months. It's still an AI-driven market with no real sign the hype is waning.

With September rate cut a done deal, and the market pricing in 79% chance of another in October, the key question coming out of Wednesday is whether Powell will validate that probability or want the market enthusiasm to tap the brakes.

From Torsten Slok at Apollo. In particular, the unemployed trend line looks like it has momentum. Great big picture look when you read stories about how the economy is holding up...

It might be starting to get embarrassing even for supporters to watch Lutnick give interviews these days...

You are getting a fat 0.4% real return on the two year bond above core CPI inflation at current levels!

There is so much that is irrational about this: from investors in the funds, the funds themselves, and the managers who lose money only to move and pick up a big check to start over--without establishing they are actually good investors. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Some great entertainment by the carnival barking showman Adam Jonas, courtesy of FT's Alphaville:

From Torsten Slok at Apollo: The economy and, needless to say, the stock market grow increasingly reliant on the AI story for growth. Yes, it's a bubble. By many measures bigger than 2000.

From Torsten Slok at Apollo: AI adoption rates are slowing among firms with more than 250 employees

The media rarely talks about deportations and less immigration in economic terms, but long run these are more ruinous than the tariffs. Lower labor supply=slower growth. What will lower rates do? Drive asset price inflation, cement goods inflation higher. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/05/o...

This will do wonders to bring manufacturing back to the US--you have to import raw materials at a higher price than anywhere in the world thanks to tariffs, and your workforce is subject to random, crippling ICE raids at any time. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/05/u...

Is there a pattern here? I can't tell.

It’s a soft number; they have a call into the White House to ask how many to add www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Somebody wants to be long duration before the jobs report...

Where is Bill Pulte, the multiple mortgage watchdog? Let's get Justice involved! www.propublica.org/article/trum...

Trump is working tirelessly to raise our electricity costs and to ensure we are far behind most of the world in energy generation for at least a decade to come. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/03/c...