Constructing a novel measure of one-year-ahead exchange rate forecasts and nowcasts for non-financial firms, from Martha Elena Delgado Rojas, Juan Herreño, Marc Hofstetter, and Mathieu Pedemonte www.nber.org/papers/w35175

We are hosting the Canadian Macroeconomics Study Group at @westernu.ca! This year's keynote is Kjetil Storesletten @hellerhurwicz.bsky.social Program 👉 baxter-robinson.github.io/CMSG2025_Pro... Registration is 100 CAD (70 for students!) 🔗https://economics.uwo.ca/about-us/workshops/index.html

Very useful discussion on the perils of using micro/cross-sectional parameter estimates in inferring the aggregate effects of policies/shocks. This is pervasive in Economics, yet the two effects can even have the opposite signs. (Example in next post.) voxdev.org/topic/method...

Monetary policy shocks affect more cities with low income per capita, both in prices and income. Just Accepted new paper by Juan Herreño @juanherreno.bsky.social‬ and Mathieu Pedemonte @mathpedemonte.bsky.social‬ zurl.co/njzAc

A timely and trenchant piece by Suresh Naidu. When future generations sift through the wreckage of our era, they’ll find it strewn with the institutional and personal failures of leaders both great and small. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/23/o...

🚨 Excited to share insights from a paper I co-authored with @juanherreno.bsky.social on why emerging economies often face financial crises or "Sudden Stops"! Just published in Journal of International Economics (@jintlecon.bsky.social ) 📝 Link: shorturl.at/JdJhr #Econsky #Macroeconomics

Something has happened in the last three months that has led basically every economic forecaster to predict that inflation will be substantially higher than they previously thought.

OH COME ON STEPH!!!!

Recently accepted by #QJE, “Micro MPCs and Macro Counterfactuals: The Case of the 2008 Rebates,” by Orchard (@jakeorchard.bsky.social), Ramey, and Wieland: doi.org/10.1093/qje/...

This will be remembered as the day when America's honor took a deep dive... And meanwhile #Ukraine will keep fighting for all of us who believe in freedom, justice and democracy #UkrainianView www.nytimes.com/video/us/pol...

If you think you've seen this move before, you have. (These are from mid-2019.)

Just posted a new textbook chapter on “Money and Banking.” Covers bank runs, panics, banking regulation, lender of last resort, payment systems, development of paper money, ledger-based money, fractional reserve banking, bills of exchange, free banking, and more! eml.berkeley.edu/~jsteinsson/...

As I am now handling papers at AEJ:Policy again, I want to encourage authors of papers that identify partial equilibrium effects to consider (in a rigorous manner) how they relate to policy effects or general equilibrium effects.

Recently accepted by #QJE, “When Did Growth Begin? New Estimates of Productivity Growth in England from 1250 to 1870,” by Bouscasse (@paulbouscasse.bsky.social), Nakamura, and Steinsson (@jonsteinsson.bsky.social): doi.org/10.1093/qje/...

Happy to see our paper with Bernardo Candia out at the @jeeanews.bsky.social. We use high frequency data and variation from countries that left the gold standard to estimate the cost of bilateral exchange rate appreciations in US cities

Regression is a tool for making comparisons If you don't know / can't easily explain what comparisons you're trying to make, then you don't understand the regression you're running

Fantastic conversation