Natural gas is pretty much disappearing from the electricity mix in California.

Congratulations @s-stantcheva.bsky.social !!! Wonderful choice!

#QJE May 2025, #1, “When Did Growth Begin? New Estimates of Productivity Growth in England from 1250 to 1870,” by Bouscasse (@paulbouscasse.bsky.social), Nakamura, and Steinsson (@jonsteinsson.bsky.social): doi.org/10.1093/qje/...

The Fed spent down a lot of credibility when it looked through the temporary post-Covid inflation and managed to engineer a rare soft landing. But this probably means it has less of an ability to do so again now (less credibility). That means a more aggressive approach is probably optimal this time

I guess Trump is going for import substitution policy. That sure made lots of countries rich in the past.

I finally made the transition from X to here, looking forward to interacting with the econ community here @tedmiguel.bsky.social @evavivalt.bsky.social @rthaler.bsky.social @cega-uc.bsky.social @socscipredict.bsky.social

CDU/CSU &SPD have just proposed a sea change in German fiscal policy: - defence spending above 1% of GDP exempt from debt brake - 10-year €500bn special fund for infrastructure - looser debt rules for states - further debt-brake reform in new Bundestag

The ABA rejects efforts to undermine the courts and the legal profession. Read full message: www.americanbar.org/news/abanews...

For the record, as of the start of Trump's second term, the US economy is on a tear.

These DOGE guys are so smart!!! "Not realizing they oversee the country's weapons stockpile"

Getting rid of the penny seems sensible to me. But there are arguments on both sides. Here are a few. 1/

This is a useful example of how economists’ mental model of climate change leads us astray. The idea is that optimal climate policy is a carbon tax of ~$200/ton, and IRA is equivalent to a carbon tax around $10/ton, so we need 20x stronger policy. That's wrong 🧵

🚨 Oprea (2024 AER) argued that prospect theory choice anomalies were not due to risk, but due to complexity-driven mistakes. But this new analysis convinces me that Oprea (2024) is substantially wrong. In my opinion, the paper should be retracted.

Interesting!

Private money? Should the government be so heavily involved in our monetary system? Do we even need a central bank? These are questions discussed in section 9 of my new “Money and Banking” chapter: eml.berkeley.edu/~jsteinsson/...

Just posted a new textbook chapter on “Money and Banking.” Covers bank runs, panics, banking regulation, lender of last resort, payment systems, development of paper money, ledger-based money, fractional reserve banking, bills of exchange, free banking, and more! eml.berkeley.edu/~jsteinsson/...

The end of history viewpoint so prevalent in contemporary thought is dealt another severe blow: venal corruption and systematic corruption are back. This like other 'I didn't think that could happen again' moments underscore the value of economic history and history more generally.

NYT: Trump begins selling a new crypto token, in a move assailed as an ethical breach. “It is literally cashing in on the presidency — creating a financial instrument so people can transfer money to the president’s family” one ethics lawyer said www.nytimes.com/live/2025/01...

David Brooks nails it: www.nytimes.com/2025/01/15/o...

This is a super interesting paper cognitive endurance.

this abstract is INSANE

John Joseph Wallis's 2006 paper "The Concept of Systematic Corruption in American History" is a ridiculously good paper. We usually think of corruption as rent seeking. But systematic corruption is rent creating to feed a political coalition. This is a huge barrier to growth.

One dissent, but four dissenting dots! (Can you spot them?)

The serving size of my kids' advent calendar is three pieces!?! My son argues that he should be able to open three per day or have three calendars! I'm in a real bind here. What is corporate America smoking!

Intercontinental electrical cables! Now that is a cool technology! Hope it becomes economical soon. ember-energy.org/latest-insig...

I wonder if this is a silver lining from the forced disruptions of Covid. But somehow unique to the US?!? Perhaps a consequence of Bidenomics? No! Could that be? In any case, very interesting.

This was funny before, but it is really funny today.

If you are giving a discussion at a conference, you should ALWAYS correspond with the author about your thoughts before the conference. (IMHO)

Banks in the United States used to hold a lot of capital.

The dollar is up. Markets still seem to believe in monetary dominance. I worry that many take monetary dominance for granted and don't think about how much our prosperity depends on it.

I so agree with Emily on these points! Experts need to communicate nuance and be honest about shades of gray. The current approach treats the population as if it were really dumb. And guess what, people don't like it. www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/o...

End the Fed at your own peril. Alesina and Summers (1993):

Given Trump's behavior now, what is he going to be like in four years!

Why I'm voting www.nytimes.com/2024/10/28/o...

The failure to endorse should actually be a more powerful signal than an endorsement. Things are so bad that the Washington Post -- of all newspapers -- is afraid to endorse Harris. That is really bad. Should affect people much more than a predictable endorsement would.

Just listened to a super interesting lecture by Chad Jones on AI. Main point: Our society is already very well off. So, we have a lot to lose from rogue AI causing a catastrophe. For standard utility functions, even very little risk of a catastrophe is not worth it, no matter the upside. Unless. 1/2

Worth listening to. What’s Wrong With Donald Trump? www.nytimes.com/2024/10/22/o...

I'm in Philly and thinking about how if not for Andrew Jackson and Martin Van Buren, Philly would probably be the financial capital of the US.

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... Very interesting! I'm amazed that Fed HR let them do this, but otherwise very interesting. Striking that they find these significant letter differences, but then almost no differences in actual job outcomes.

Great choice!! Congratulations dacemoglumit.bsky.social, Simon, and James!!

Unusually interesting article about education: www.nytimes.com/2023/10/22/o...

It is curious to me how the stock market reacted to Covid early on. It seems like the market woke up all of a sudden on Feb 21st 2020. Why the abrupt change when information presumably trickled out?

Public service announcement to students: When writing an exam, don't use a red pen!

One of my least favorite aspects of the dominant culture in our field is that if there is one good estimate of something (say the MPC) then it gets much harder to publish additional estimates (especially if they confirm earlier results). 1/4

Good piece on intellectual history. Actually, both Modigliani and Friedman acknowledged the crucial contributions of Dorothy Brady, Rose Friedman, and Margaret Reid to the development of PIH/LCH. But they got little wider recognition at the time. www.nytimes.com/2023/10/13/o...

I'm an optimist and so I am thinking about the prospect of a centrist unity majority in the House.

Maybe everyone has ODed on reading about Covid. But this is a pretty interesting article IMO: www.nytimes.com/2023/10/05/o...

If you have science-oriented, school-aged kids and don't know about Veritasium, you should check it out. It is amazing. Simply amazing. (Where to start? Try out "Gravity is not a force" or "How electricity actually works") www.youtube.com/channel/UCHn...

The idea of wage-price spirals resonates with regular people that experience high inflation. I have always felt uneasy that I don't know how to think about this idea formally. Guido and Ivan reinterpret a relatively standard model to help us think about what a wage-price spiral is. Very insightful:

Good article by Rich Clarida on the post-Covid inflation. I agree that the first order thing was the big relative price change in goods and that it did not make sense to engineer a recession to make service prices fall to offset increasing goods prices www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/i...