DfE pupil data is out today and shows that the number of private school pupils has dropped 5.6% since VAT was introduced. Not 25% like the independent schools council predicted. Or the 50% we saw in some right-wing papers. 5.6%.

Important considerations on immigration changes in relation to both their retrospective nature and the lack of parliamentary scrutiny of them.

No 10 thought net 200k or 200-250k good landing zone this time last year [white paper] but were worried it might spike above that The govt has never had a decision to aim for < net 100k. It is Mahmood's instinct But costs Treasury £20 billion. PM does not appear to have any firm view of that choice

Net migration was 171,000 across the whole of 2025 - halving from the net migration level of 2024 (331,000 is the 2024 estimate) - ONS Driven by a fall in immigration [not a rise in emigration] Immigration is falling further during 2026, so the November number will fall again

Applications in the year to March 2026 are down around 12%. 93,525 people claimed asylum in the UK during that time. 4 in 10 - 42% - of those who claimed asylum had arrived on a small boat. Small boat crossings are about 40% lower in 2026 that at the same time last year.

As expected, the immigration stats show that the asylum backlog is now down to to 35,744 cases, which is just under 49,000 people. Lowest since pre-covid. And there were 20,855 people in hotels at the end of March - which is down a third since the time of the election.

Astonishing (yet somehow unsurprising) perception gaps in this research - major failures in both government communications and media coverage to be at this point alongside significant misinformation.

The dumping of at-risk children by local authorities in illegal homes symbolises a broken care system and grotesque state failure. My @unherd.com column on how vulnerable children became big business - with damaging consequences unherd.com/2026/05/how-...

Rubber, meet road.

I think it unlikely that even 1/10 journalists, MPs know this about population I think it is genuinely a surprise to this govt itself that they are now going to undershoot that in 2026 and in 2027 (possibly by an eyecatching significant unplanned outflow) www.gov.uk/government/p...

ONS significantly downgrades UK population growth forecast on the back of falling net migration - with net migration central estimate reduced from 340k per year to 230k (means population of the UK would hit 71m by 2034, rather than 72.2m, as projected in 2022)

@jacquibroadhead.bsky.social, Director of the Global Exchange on Migration at COMPAS, shares her thoughts on why cohesion and integration must be taken more seriously in UK policy making. ⬇️ Where do the key challenges lie and how we can get to a better place? www.compas.ox.ac.uk/article/taki...

There is an imagined working class, that largely no longer exists and a modern working class that the political class rarely interact with outside of service provision.

A Doctor quoted in this piece: “I previously asked the Home Office for permission to work as a doctor three times. But they refused me three times. I specialise in paediatric intensive care but until now I have been forced to do nothing,”

Very much enjoy this municipal energy.

Alex Norris, Home Office Minister, is speaking at a Citizens UK summit event about launching named community sponsorship in the UK in Westminster "This is a bet on the British people". Those who express concerns will also step up for Afghans, Syrians, Ukrainians and Hong Kongers, he says

HASC then was chaired by Yvette Cooper. The Migration Advisory Committee annual report + a wider remit came out of that report. Successive governments have not yet adopted the proposal to do this at scale in a regular process. This proposal has picked up a broader coalition since 2024 though.

More on the 3 discussion locations and the methods being used committees.parliament.uk/committee/83...

Demos are holding three discussion sessions - with the Home Affairs Committee - they will visit Northumberland, Leicestershire and South Renfrewshire, which should again capture the case for dialogue + discussions about immigration choices in polarised times BBC www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Govt's plans to double (or more) the length of time it takes for migrants to qualify for settlement in the UK risks exacerbating child poverty, according to new analysis by @ippr.org Poverty will be prolonged for 60,000-90,000 children of foreign workers by 2029 www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...

Migration Advisory Committee has published (some of) numbers behind Mahmood's claim. Care workers/dependants make *positive* net contribution for 1st 20 years in UK After that - like Brits - they get old, retire and become a cost. www.gov.uk/government/p...

A good thing happened today. www.gov.uk/government/n...

Interestingly, the salience of migration seems to have plateaued or potentially be dipping, following a raft of policy announcements - 44% select either channel crossings or levels of migration as a top issue - the lowest since June 2025

There are other reasons for the UK government not to award or continue Palantir contracts but this statement of intent by its CEO must surely be decisive?

Try: "We chose not to have an exception, even for Chevening prog. Its unfortunate + unfair to vg students identified by FCDO. But we hope that may increase our leverage with their govts" Why do we think that in case of Afghan women+Taliban govt? Maybe it "sends a message" here. But what message?

This is a cruel story but also one of governmental incoherence. FCDO takes the time and effort to select the right scholars for this highly competitive scheme, which is part of its work and mandate. Home Office (unilaterally?) changes the rules, (presumably) refuses a carve out for Chevening.

Immigration salience - by local area Most affluent: 43% 2nd most affluent: 44% Middle fifth: 41% Second most deprived: 41% Most deprived: 38% Ipsos issues index, Feb 2026

In less than a month, new providers of children’s homes, fostering services and secure accommodation will no longer be able to make a profit in Wales — making it the first nation in the UK to take this landmark step. nation.cymru/news/wales-b...

The OBR views migration as a net fiscal contributor not a drag. Quite a few people don't like this or simply don't believe it, but it remains the case.

This is definitely worth a read. The electoral implications of two deprivations: "In the parts of the country where you can get a good job, you can’t get a good house; in the parts of the country where you can get a good house, you can’t get a good job."

The government is willing - as a political choice - to pay significant fiscal costs to get immigration down But it can not fabricate fiscal savings of its settlement policy by presenting numbers which don't reflect its policy at all. bsky.app/profile/sund...

"A full impact assessment has not been produced for this instrument as no, or no significant, impact on the private, voluntary or public sector is foreseen." Just off the top of my head the potential interaction with local authority homelessness and social care duties feels significant?

Your regular reminder that the UK is in fact a high trust society and anyone who implies it isn’t is either selling you a pup or has bought one.

Its a political choice to want to keep net migration down (then readjust the borrowing, tax, spending numbers) or whether to want net migration to drift up (then readjust some of the Home Office policy drive to reduce/eliminate it). Can't do both. www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...

"Today’s OBR projections reveal two competing realities in government right now. The OBR and Treasury forecast an upturn in net migration, which makes their fiscal numbers add up – while the Home Office says it is determined to drive net migration down still further. They can’t have it both ways".

Here but excluded remains the worst of all worlds from an integration perspective.

The wider point here is that you can only sell assets once. Sales such as these, which many councils are being forced to make, are not a sustainable solution to financial pressure. Likewise drawing down reserves, which an increasing proportion of councils have now been doing for 3 years or more

Understanding public procurement is key to understanding the failures in asylum accommodation. This is a good explainer of some of the gaps, in the solutions I strongly agree with the need for more spending on contract management (and factoring this into whether outsourcing is in fact cheaper.)

When we fail to make sure we all have a decent home that we can afford, we’re failing in our most basic responsibility to protect people’s dignity. It’s appalling that the number of children growing up in temporary accommodation continues to reach record highs.

The latest data shows 134,760 households including 175,990 children living in temporary accommodation. This includes 2,880 families with children in bed and breakfast hotels, with more than half of these (1,670) living in these for more than 6 weeks...

New statistics released today show two abysmal new records: - A record high number of people sleeping rough - A record high number of households and children living in temporary accommodation These are the most devastating indicators of the failure of our housing system ⬇️

The recent Public Accounts Ctte highlighted a new Asylum Systems Board aiming to take a more holistic approach with participation from MoJ and MHCLG. Time will tell how effective this will be, but this is an example of exactly why that is so needed, HO acting alone will not be effective.

The number of people arriving on safe and legal routes hasn't fallen dramatically. Only 65 refugees were resettled through the UK resettlement scheme between Oct and Dec. It's supposed the be the UK's global resettlement scheme. When launched in 2019, it aimed to resettle around 5k people a year.

🧵Reform’s promise to scrap the employees’ rights act as part of the Great Repeal Bill could risk alienating a group of their potential voters. Here's why it's a risk Firstly, as polling we've done for @jrf-uk.bsky.social shows - Brits across voter groups support key elements of the act

The Reform proposal to repeal the Equality Act + anti-discrimination laws (a proposal which Farage made and u-turned on in 2015, but which is back in 2026) has gone almost completely under the radar

Football represents an underutilised opportunity for Labour to anchor a wider programme of civic renewal. By Sam Taylor Hill

Can cities survive without the anonymity they give people? Genuine question.