Seattle may wake up to some snow showers on the hills on Tuesday morning with snow levels expected to be around 250 ft. Minimal accumulation expected. There will be another chance or two in the morning hours this week, otherwise we’ll likely finish with a snowless winter.

Grazalema, Spain, received over 2,000 mm (78 inches) of rain in just the last 20 days. Over a year’s worth of rain — and it’s only early February. This is hydrologically absurd.

In Seattle we take to the streets when our sports teams win. Until the “don’t walk” comes on. Then we take to the sidewalks.

How cold has this winter been so far? The first 2/3 of winter 2025-26 is the 7th warmest on record for the Contiguous U.S.

NCAR represents what is possible when a nation chooses to invest in science as a public good, writes @carlonimbus.bsky.social of @ucs.org. #SaveNCAR

I've seen several Big Climate Accounts™ post about how the recent winter storm was made worse by climate change. It's a convenient narrative. s But what is "worse"? Colder temperatures? More snow? More freezing rain? Is there any primary literature supporting the idea of worse snowstorms? 1/

My flight to Houston keeps getting canceled and each time Alaska’s auto rebook gives me a more complicated itinerary. I now have SEA->PDX->SEA->IAH which seems sub optimal…

The cold/dry spell is nearly over for Seattle. The next pattern shift will bring seasonal precipitation and above normal temperatures. It will really feel like spring by the first week of February. The mountain snowfall outlook is bleak.

Snowpack in Washington and Oregon is so bad that a normal February and March would result in a recovery to just the ~10th percentile of historical years. More in the CZ blog... theconvergencezone.com/2026/01/19/p...

The last 5-6 days of T/Td at my house had almost no diurnal cycle while we were stuck under an inversion. Today the warmth aloft finally mixed down to the ground and the temp is soaring into the mid-50s.

#EarthquakeReport for M 6.0 #Earthquake offshore of #Oregon #USA Right-lateral strike-slip earthquake along Blanco transform fault Common location for M 5-6+ earthquakes No #Tsunami hazard Tectonic setting in 2019 report earthjay.com?p=8935 earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/...

Globally, no single day in 2025 was cooler than its 1991-2020 average. climate.copernicus.eu/global-clima...

2025 was an exceptional year for the Earth's climate ⬆️ Warmest ocean heat content ⬆️ Tied as second warmest surface temps ⬆️ Second warmest troposphere ⬆️ Record high sea level and GHGs ⬇️ Record low winter Arctic ice New State of the Climate over at Carbon Brief: www.carbonbrief.org/...

Interesting 10 day forecast for Seattle with some ensemble members showing a cold snap and others projecting mild weather. An arctic front is likely headed for the northern Plains/Rockies and the question is whether any of the arctic air will make it west of the Cascades or not.

Same story for Washington (pictured) and Oregon. Need 90th percentile snow from here on out to get to normal. No snow coming anytime soon, so we'd need a record snowy Feb-Mar just to reach normal. Hint: that ain't happening.

One of those days in Seattle where you should probably cancel your afternoon meetings and take an extended lunch because it might be a while before we have sunshine and nearly 60 degree temperatures again. (by the way, the record high for the date is 58)

I can’t even causally read the news on a Sunday evening without there being another new crisis???

I don’t comment much on non-weather current events but I read the content here and think what the actual fuck is going on in this country? How are we ever going to be able to turn this around when so many people support this and/or don’t know or care or have biased news feeds? It’s terrifying.

The Space Needle is in there somewhere

Looks like we're going to need a miracle to be able to see anything at New Year's at the Space Needle this year...there's quite a bit of fog around and it will likely expand in coverage this evening 😶‍🌫️

After a crazy December, there's not much PNW weather news to report. A few weak weather systems will move through from Thursday night -> next week. Temperatures will be near-normal and precipitation will generally be light. For mid-January, current odds favor a transition back to dry weather.

🚨🔥 Warmest Christmas on record for the Contiguous U.S.! The average high of 57.9F and the average low of 36.6F each broke the Christmas record by a full 3F. 🔥🚨

Fortunately for everyone, the wind storm didn‘t happen. The European model had far and away the best forecasts for the event, although there were enough stronger members in the ensemble spread to trigger warnings/advisories.

I feel bad for the NAM model, it just wants one last time to shine before NOAA cuts the cord in 2026. Fortunately it is 10-15+ years outdated and the modeled 70+ mph winds are NOT going to happen in Seattle. Doesn't mean there won't be a significant storm, but not apocalypse level!

Will there be a Christmas Eve windstorm? It would be nice to have an answer, but unfortunately the best meteorologists can do is say "maybe, maybe not". I'd say it probably leans about 75/25 in favor of a minor event, so let's hope that ends up being the case.

Potential X-mas eve windstorm update -- The European model has a weaker and more inland low resulting in mostly non-damaging winds. The GFS ensembles are stronger and farther west, resulting in an event that could be damaging for many areas. Probably will come down to a nowcast 🤷

PNW wind storms exist to frustrate forecasters. After a bunch of news articles ran today, the threat greatly diminished in the models. Wednesday just looks to be a normal day with light rain and a gentle breeze. Unless the models flip again 😅

It's raining again...that makes it 18/22 days with measurable rain this December in Seattle, 20/22 if you include 2 days with a trace.

They're trying to squeak one more Harrell Administration priority through before the end of the year: allowing huge-ass corporate signs on skyscrapers in Downtown Seattle. services.seattle.gov/Portal/Cap/C...

A Christmas Eve windstorm is appearing increasingly likely with a compact 980 hPa low + trailing sting jet expected to take a troublesome S to N track. Willamette Valley, coast, PDX, SEA metros all potentially impacted. Lots of model uncertainty…follow forecasts closely. Could be a bad one.

Watching a possible snow event for the WA lowlands on Christmas Eve. Currently looks like a "dusting on the higher hills" type event for Seattle. Areas north and at higher elevations have a better chance at seeing accumulating snow, but it's still too early to tell...

Sea-Tac is now over 7 inches of rain for December. Average Dec total is 5.90 in. The high water mark for Dec is 11.85" from 1979. Second is Dec 2015, 11.21". Models suggest that we'll get to the 12-13 inch range by the end of the month, which would be #3 all time for any month.

"What if it was all snow?" It was at one spot in Washington -- Harts Pass, the highest elevation SNOTEL site in the Washington Cascades. Snowpack is now 173% of normal for the date. Last winter it took until March 14 to reach this level of snowpack.

What’s the likelihood this actually happens? Killing the mothership would be the knockout blow for weather and climate research in this country.

Efforts by the USACE and facilitated by accurate NWS forecasts appear to have significantly reduced impacts from record flooding on the Skagit River in WA last week. A look at how that worked and why we have to protect the foundations of our fed science/water agencies. tinyurl.com/bdebat4m

This is incredible -- if the claims are true that the Skagit crest height was reduced by 4-5 ft (consistent with some forecasts), this emergency measure may have saved hundreds of millions in damage to Mt. Vernon and other towns along the Skagit river.

A flash flood warning has been issued for a levee failure on the Green River near Tukwila Evacuation info: This is for residents and businesses east of the Green River in the Orillia area in Tukwila, Renton and Kent. Due to breach in the Desimone Levee, this area is under a GO NOW evacuation notice

SEW corrects Flash Flood Warning [flash flood: observed, flash flood damage threat: considerable, levee failure: occurring] for King [WA] till Dec 15, 9:00 PM PST Link

Sea-Tac is now over 5.25" of rainfall for December. Normal for the entire month is 5.75". Model forecasts show about 2 additional inches falling this week.

I spent way too much time on a Saturday analyzing snowfall trends in Washington, but it does appear that the start to snow season in the WA Cascades has trended later in recent decades. Check out my post to learn more...

The catastrophic flooding has been rough to handle, so here's some good news. One more warm atmos river on Monday, then the Cascades are going to get pummeled with snow when cold air finally moves in next Wednesday. Snoqualmie Pass could see 4 feet of snow by Christmas. Skiing will be great.

Another record stage reached on a western Washington river, this time the Cedar River at Renton. Records go back to at least 1940. #wawx

A brief summary as the atmospheric river finally tapers off, with the worst flooding along the Skagit river still to come.

Here's a sampling of some rainfall totals since Monday morning if you were wondering why rivers are experiencing historic flooding in the WA Cascades. Normally one would expect at least some of this to fall as snow in the high terrain, but it was 100% rain in this area.

Morning update: it rained all night and the Snohomish River is now above its modern record and still rising. For now the Snoqualmie River remains slightly below record level, but still in major flood stage.

This storm is just crazy to watch on radar. Nothing but a little drizzle in the lowlands but as soon as the flow hits the foothills it gets the lift needed to produce a deluge. 55 degrees with 95% humidity In Seattle.

Lake Quinault is now higher than the peak in 2015 (14.7 ft) that produced the photo of Josh Wurman kayaking around the DOW during the OLYMPEX campaign. Those were some crazy strong storms, can’t believe this topped it.

While rain has been the main story, Washington Pass in the North Cascades has somehow managed to stay below 32 F all week. As a result, there is at least one site in the PNW sitting well above normal with snowpack this year while everyone else drowns in rain.

Main Topic: November and Fall 2025 Record Scoreboard and Climatological Review On The Extreme Temperature Diary MON 12/08/2025 At: guyonclimate.com + #climate #weather and record temp reports @michaelemann.bsky.social @katharinehayhoe.com @capitalweather.bsky.social @brianmchugh.bsky.social

These subtropical air masses that reach the PNW keep getting warmer and wetter as the climate warms as a whole. Yakima, WA has reached 70 degrees today, the only other 70+ in Dec was 72 on 12/1/2021. The atmospheric water vapor content is near record highs for Dec, increasing rainfall amounts.