Probability of super El Nino vs probability of super duper turbocharged El Nino? Check out the strength forecast cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana...

Well, this is simply infuriating. Someone's got to fight this in court. BREAKING: Trump Administration Orders Dismantling of the U.S. Forest Service open.substack.com/pub/morethan...

As the first reanalysis data become available, I think I can say with a fairly high degree of confidence that the March 2026 heatwave will go down as the most anomalously extreme heat event ever observed at any time of year in the southwestern U.S.

Colorado snowpack is melting out three weeks ahead of the previous record. This is happening at 1.5C of warming. What will the record year look like at 2 or 2.5C?

Is climate change making cold extremes more frequent/severe? No This plot shows the difference in temperature of the 0.2% coldest hourly temps (from ERA5) from two periods: 2000-2019 and 1980-1999. Red colors indicate that the later period had warmer extreme cold temperatures.

Earlier today, I was asked to comment on the current state of American disaster preparedness. That was already a fraught question, even prior to present chaos, but then I saw today's headlines. 🫠 "Top Disaster Response Official Claims He Teleported to a Waffle House"

I've interviewed more than a dozen hydrologists and climatologists across the West the past 10 days. A sense of panic is starting to set in. Wildfires and water shortages will start mounting this summer. Adverse impacts are expected from not only this heat wave, but the historically warm winter.

The upcoming SW USA heat dome is predicted to be so anomalous that the 500 hPa heights over the entire region will exceed every historical daily max (1990-2025) from now until JUNE. This may be a short lived event, but the consequences for snowpack, water supply, and drought will be felt all year.

Major shades of '21 Pacific Northwest heat event. EFI maxed out across the majority of the Western US, for multiple consecutive days.

By how much and for how long will the upcoming weather pattern--an astonishing anticyclone--be breaking March records in the west? A lot, and a long time. Here's GFS forecast 500hPa height compared to the March record. Breaking monthly records by >50m, and 2 to 5+ days in monthly record territory.

That storm made a nice dent in the WA state snowfall deficit. However, it wasn’t enough to get up to the 10th percentile line. Snowpack remains low, but at least we’re well clear of historic lows. A warm atmospheric river next week will be a net negative for snowpack.

US 2 Stevens Pass is now closed between milepost 55 and 85 because our plows are not able to clear the road due to illegally parked vehicles at the summit. If you have selfishly chosen to block our crews and first responders, come move your car off the highway.

All signs continue to point to an exceptional, long-duration, and record-breaking to (in some cases) record-shattering March heatwave initially centered across U.S. Southwest but expanding to much broader region next week. This is effectively a full-on summer heatwave in March.

Incredible to see a mid-March snowfall in Seattle. I saw the high-res models showing snow last night and didn't believe them!

The latest run of the European ensemble model has 500 mb heights a week from now around 5960 m over southern AZ. To give some perspective on how insane that is, that would be the orange dot on the SPC graph of Tucson historical 500 mb heights (red line is all-time highest)

The #Seattle area may see some wet snow between the pre-dawn hours Friday until about mid morning -- yes, including the Friday morning commute -- with slushy accumulations on grassy surfaces. Get the scoop in the ECWB: emeraldcityweather.com/atmospheric-... #wawx #wasnow

The upcoming western US heatwave will be of similar proportion to the 2021 PNW heatwave -- setting records that are well outside of the existing climatology.

Absurd heat! Despite our best efforts, the monster heat dome is bound to be "undersold" by the meteorology community. Why? Because intensity like this is almost never seen. This thing has the potential to be Epic for Mid-March, and not in a good way… 1/

A sight for sore eyes

Some exciting weather on tap for next week, cold onshore flow Mon-Tue followed by an atmospheric river Wed-Thu with low snow levels (2-4K ft). Could be the biggest mountain snow event of the season for WA. Desperately needed. Tuesday morning could see snow showers close to sea level as well.

First documented scientific proof of a chemtrail! Rockets re-entering the atmosphere leave a lithium trail.

Seattle may wake up to some snow showers on the hills on Tuesday morning with snow levels expected to be around 250 ft. Minimal accumulation expected. There will be another chance or two in the morning hours this week, otherwise we’ll likely finish with a snowless winter.

Grazalema, Spain, received over 2,000 mm (78 inches) of rain in just the last 20 days. Over a year’s worth of rain — and it’s only early February. This is hydrologically absurd.

In Seattle we take to the streets when our sports teams win. Until the “don’t walk” comes on. Then we take to the sidewalks.

How cold has this winter been so far? The first 2/3 of winter 2025-26 is the 7th warmest on record for the Contiguous U.S.

NCAR represents what is possible when a nation chooses to invest in science as a public good, writes @carlonimbus.bsky.social of @ucs.org. #SaveNCAR

I've seen several Big Climate Accounts™ post about how the recent winter storm was made worse by climate change. It's a convenient narrative. s But what is "worse"? Colder temperatures? More snow? More freezing rain? Is there any primary literature supporting the idea of worse snowstorms? 1/

My flight to Houston keeps getting canceled and each time Alaska’s auto rebook gives me a more complicated itinerary. I now have SEA->PDX->SEA->IAH which seems sub optimal…

The cold/dry spell is nearly over for Seattle. The next pattern shift will bring seasonal precipitation and above normal temperatures. It will really feel like spring by the first week of February. The mountain snowfall outlook is bleak.

Snowpack in Washington and Oregon is so bad that a normal February and March would result in a recovery to just the ~10th percentile of historical years. More in the CZ blog... theconvergencezone.com/2026/01/19/p...

The last 5-6 days of T/Td at my house had almost no diurnal cycle while we were stuck under an inversion. Today the warmth aloft finally mixed down to the ground and the temp is soaring into the mid-50s.

#EarthquakeReport for M 6.0 #Earthquake offshore of #Oregon #USA Right-lateral strike-slip earthquake along Blanco transform fault Common location for M 5-6+ earthquakes No #Tsunami hazard Tectonic setting in 2019 report earthjay.com?p=8935 earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/...

Globally, no single day in 2025 was cooler than its 1991-2020 average. climate.copernicus.eu/global-clima...

2025 was an exceptional year for the Earth's climate ⬆️ Warmest ocean heat content ⬆️ Tied as second warmest surface temps ⬆️ Second warmest troposphere ⬆️ Record high sea level and GHGs ⬇️ Record low winter Arctic ice New State of the Climate over at Carbon Brief: www.carbonbrief.org/...

Interesting 10 day forecast for Seattle with some ensemble members showing a cold snap and others projecting mild weather. An arctic front is likely headed for the northern Plains/Rockies and the question is whether any of the arctic air will make it west of the Cascades or not.

Same story for Washington (pictured) and Oregon. Need 90th percentile snow from here on out to get to normal. No snow coming anytime soon, so we'd need a record snowy Feb-Mar just to reach normal. Hint: that ain't happening.

One of those days in Seattle where you should probably cancel your afternoon meetings and take an extended lunch because it might be a while before we have sunshine and nearly 60 degree temperatures again. (by the way, the record high for the date is 58)

I can’t even causally read the news on a Sunday evening without there being another new crisis???

I don’t comment much on non-weather current events but I read the content here and think what the actual fuck is going on in this country? How are we ever going to be able to turn this around when so many people support this and/or don’t know or care or have biased news feeds? It’s terrifying.

The Space Needle is in there somewhere

Looks like we're going to need a miracle to be able to see anything at New Year's at the Space Needle this year...there's quite a bit of fog around and it will likely expand in coverage this evening 😶‍🌫️

After a crazy December, there's not much PNW weather news to report. A few weak weather systems will move through from Thursday night -> next week. Temperatures will be near-normal and precipitation will generally be light. For mid-January, current odds favor a transition back to dry weather.

🚨🔥 Warmest Christmas on record for the Contiguous U.S.! The average high of 57.9F and the average low of 36.6F each broke the Christmas record by a full 3F. 🔥🚨

Fortunately for everyone, the wind storm didn‘t happen. The European model had far and away the best forecasts for the event, although there were enough stronger members in the ensemble spread to trigger warnings/advisories.

I feel bad for the NAM model, it just wants one last time to shine before NOAA cuts the cord in 2026. Fortunately it is 10-15+ years outdated and the modeled 70+ mph winds are NOT going to happen in Seattle. Doesn't mean there won't be a significant storm, but not apocalypse level!

Will there be a Christmas Eve windstorm? It would be nice to have an answer, but unfortunately the best meteorologists can do is say "maybe, maybe not". I'd say it probably leans about 75/25 in favor of a minor event, so let's hope that ends up being the case.

Potential X-mas eve windstorm update -- The European model has a weaker and more inland low resulting in mostly non-damaging winds. The GFS ensembles are stronger and farther west, resulting in an event that could be damaging for many areas. Probably will come down to a nowcast 🤷

PNW wind storms exist to frustrate forecasters. After a bunch of news articles ran today, the threat greatly diminished in the models. Wednesday just looks to be a normal day with light rain and a gentle breeze. Unless the models flip again 😅

It's raining again...that makes it 18/22 days with measurable rain this December in Seattle, 20/22 if you include 2 days with a trace.

They're trying to squeak one more Harrell Administration priority through before the end of the year: allowing huge-ass corporate signs on skyscrapers in Downtown Seattle. services.seattle.gov/Portal/Cap/C...