One of my favourites. Vale Jon Kudelka

La Nina + neg IOD = cold Australia, right? Not anymore. Just released: "2025 was Australia's 4th warmest year since national temperature records began in 1910. For Australia as a whole, the national annual average temperature was 1.23 °C above the 1961–1990 average" www.bom.gov.au/climate/curr...

Winter Olympic athletes juggle the mental load of large carbon footprints that contribute to a warmer world & loss of snow, with a love of their sport, mountains & representing their nation. Hence more are speaking out on the need to move away from fossil fuels. #POW www.nbcmiami.com/olympics/202...

Comments from me in today’s Guardian on the chance of El Niño in 2026 & record global temperatures in 2026 or 27. TL:DR La Niña is unlikely, but either neutral or El Niño more likely in 2026. With accelerating global warming, we may not even need a strong El Niño to give record global temperatures.

Great article on the climate threats to both winter and summer Olympics theconversation.com/climate-chan...

My interview with ABC Radio today on the threat that climate change plays to the Winter Olympics (which starts this week in Italy) and Australia’s snow seasons, and the need to Protect Our Winters. drive.google.com/file/d/1Z6zS...

#ridetoworkmelb #melbweather

I did a live interview today discussing the shortening window of reliable natural snow for the Winter Olympics (starting in Italy on Friday) and Australia, and the importance of having plans to Protect Our Winters. From the 5min mark of www.abc.net.au/listen/progr...

Absolutely enormous sunspot on the surface of the Sun that is visible with eclipse glasses or a solar filter - no telescope required. Just took a look at it myself. Could be interesting when it is directed more towards Earth later this week. www.spaceweather.com

#Melbourne is so parched. 3mm of rain in the past six weeks and repeated heatwaves. Example of an intense flash drought coming on top of an ordinary rainfall year.

While we have been watching the heat, inland Qld has floods. Already areas have had a years worth of average rainfall in first 5 weeks of the year, with almost 3 months to go in their wet season. www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps...

Press release from Protect our Winters on the threats to Australia’s snow season, high country and Winter Olympians, with some quotes from me (and from Olympians!) protectourwinters.org.au/press/austra...

Thanks Adam Morgan for asking me and Sarah Kirkpatrick to be involved in this ABC News story about the heatwaves. Normalising the difficult conversations about climate risk is important, and it’s a credit to the ABC. youtu.be/goMyuDCKS9M?...

I spoke about heat records, NCRA, Antarctica and the arts on Einstein-a-Go-Go (3RRR) this morning. Listen at: www.rrr.org.au/shared/broad...

"Heatwave? Its always been hot up here." There were 6 days in January 2026 above 45.0C at Mildura. Mildura only reached 45C a total of 6 times from 1946-2000 (54 years). Mildura has reached 45C a total of 27 times since 2000. www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/... *hat tip Gary Weymouth

Congratulations to Port Augusta AUSTRALIA for recording the most Southern 50C (122F) in world climatic history. It's one of the several world records being set in this unbelievable heat wave, By far, the harshest the Southern Hemisphere has ever seen More records on Saturday !

Great article on the causes of the current heatwave by Tess Parker @tessjparker.bsky.social and Michael Barnes. Most people would not realise that Tropical Cyclones off NW Australia in Jan/Feb actually drive an extra kick in our SE Australia heat. theconversation.com/anatomy-of-a...

Second day with SA recording a 50C now... www.bom.gov.au/sa/observati...

First 50C (provisional) of the heatwave posted at Andamooka (SA) yesterday. May not be the last. Data at: reg.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/...

Concerning temperatures in South Australia today. Roxby Downs already 49.4C at 2:17pm local time. Recent maximums have been hit around 4pm. Also 49.0C at Maree - second day in a row 49+, 4th consecutive day over 48. 'Only' 47C forecast tomorrow. Is 50C on the cards? www.bom.gov.au/sa/observati...

If only we had some sort of report - a risk assessment if you will - that told government if this is all going to get better or worse...

Bit hard to have a winter Olympics without snow - so you make it. But that cant go on forever... www.reuters.com/sustainabili...

South Australia, this is getting crazy. www.bom.gov.au/sa/observati...

With respect to the *early* Jan heat in SE Australia (shorter heatwave than now) * climate change made the event about 1.6°C hotter * 5 times more likely to occur now than in preindustrial climate * Return period of every 5 years in current climate www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-chan...

World Weather Attribution @wwattribution.bsky.social and BoM scientists stars in today’s First Dog on the Moon cartoon. Recent Australian heatwaves occurring x5 as often as before climate change. Now that’s science communication www.theguardian.com/commentisfre... @firstdogonthemoon.bsky.social

If you think it's been dry in Melbourne, you're not wrong. Melbourne (Olympic Park) has only recorded 1.6mm of rain so far this year. Not the lowest (0.3mm in 1932), but could end up in the bottom 5 Januarys.

Stop Press. Pooncarie (NSW) Post Office has read its manual thermometer at 9am and its maximum temperature for yesterday (Tue 27 Jan 026) was 49.7C Equal second hottest temperature in the reliable BoM records for NSW. reg.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio...

#ridetoworkmelb #melbweather

For every new STEM PhD hired by the US Government in 2025, 11 quit/retired/fired. Eleven.

Hopetoun (48.9C) has now also broken the old Vic record also set at Hopetoun on 7 Feb 2009 (48.8)

New all-time record set for Victoria, Walpeup 48.9°C, noting that Ouyen won’t report until tomorrow as it is a manually recorded site. reg.bom.gov.au/places/vic/

Its not even 1:30pm in the eastern states and we have this.. You can track the BoM observed maximum temps by clicking on the state names on the old 'reg.bom.gov.au' page: reg.bom.gov.au/places/

Telling it like it should be told: www.linkedin.com/posts/dradam...

Add to the 'dont see that everyday' file; Laverton in the 40's and Avalon in the 20's!! A weak east-west trough sitting along the southern coastline is seperating the SW from the NW/NE (it wont last) www.baywx.com.au/melbtempmax....

Forecast Melbourne maximum temperatures for 27 Jan 2026. Not much escape by the water or on top of the Dandenongs (Ferny Creek), and yes, a Laverton has a 46C forecast. reg.bom.gov.au/vic/forecast...

Instagram link to the heatwave and climate change discussion by Dr. Adam Morgan on ABC News tonight www.instagram.com/reel/DT-Cb6t...

Top work ABC: Adam Morgan explaining the heatwave in terms of climate change on ABC news

The highest temperature ever recorded in Victoria is 48.8°C at Hopetoun on 7 Feb 2009. The forecast for Tuesday at Ouyen Victoria is 49°C.

Early Jan 2026 SE Australia heatwave (43°C in Melb) was made at least 1.6°C hotter & “about 5 times more likely to occur now than they would have been in a preindustrial climate without human-caused warming; however, this is likely an underestimate.” www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-chan...

Let’s talk about El Niño. Since the BoM removed its El Niño outlook service, it’s hard to get a true sense of what may be coming. The build up of heat in the western Pacific subsurface suggests the Pacific is primed for an El Niño in 2026.

A crazy amount of heat has accumulated in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean over the past two months. Hold on to your hats when this reaches the surface with the next El Niño. Y-axis shows depth, X-axis shows degree longitude (one degree equals 111 km) and colors temp anomalies. @noaa.gov PMEL data

A brilliant article talking about stepping beyond the silos to fully understand fire risk. The National Climate Risk Assessment noted that the traditional silo approach was a great stepping stone but didn’t take us to the point of understanding real world risks pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/the...

Global mean temperature 2025: 1.44 ± 0.13 °C above the 1850-1900 average, based on a synthesis of eight international datasets. 2025 was the second or third warmest year on record. 2024 remains the warmest. That makes the past 3 years are the 3 warmest years on record. wmo.int/news/media-c...

Globally, no single day in 2025 was cooler than its 1991-2020 average. climate.copernicus.eu/global-clima...

Very large hail events and losses. Damage costs have risen in Australia, but this appears linked to increased exposure rather than an increase in the number of events. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Mass mortality event in grey headed fruit bats- bad on so many reasons: any loss of wildlife is tragic; greyheaded fruit bats pollinate our big trees, often migratory along the east coast & fruit bats are mammals, so when one species reaches its upper thermal limit it’s a major warning for MAMMALS 😬

2025 was the hottest year on record for ocean heat content. Unfortunately, we now say this every year. 🥹 "In addition to setting a new record in 2025, the global ocean continues to show sustained and intensified warming." + #OpenAccess Study: doi.org/10.1007/s003... + Data: www.ocean.iap.ac.cn

I’m uneasy about the Age headline. The 2005 briefing by Geoff Love was pretty blunt about the risks. Why isn’t the headline ‘Howard government ignored scientists warnings’?? Headline implies the climate science was wrong - it wasn’t. Link to the 2005 briefing recordsearch.naa.gov.au/SearchNRetri...

Wondering where that smoke in Melbourne suburbs yesterday afternoon/evening came from? So did I! Satellites show it was smoke from several fires in the Otway Ranges, which started from lightning strikes overnight Friday/Saturday. slider.cira.colostate.edu?sat=himawari...