Exclusive | A long-serving BoM executive is leaving after almost a decade-long tenure — one marked by the widely panned rollout of its new $96 million website. @squigglyrick.bsky.social reports. www.crikey.com.au/2026/05/19/b...

One of my amazing students (Gemma) just plotted up the satellite derived Vegetation Health Index for April 2026. (Red = stressed vegetation, Blue = very healthy vegetation)

Outlooks recently updated from the multi-model system run at Copernicus are pushing for a spring positive IOD event, though mostly from warmer conditions off Africa. climate.copernicus.eu/charts/packa...

Coastal erosion and recession was one of the priority hazards in the Australian first National Climate Risk Assessment. These types of impacts can be expected to grow more common and more severe www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05...

BoM ENSO warning system shows that they would have shifted to **El Nino ALERT** in the past week: docs.google.com/document/d/1... This means at least a 70% chance of El Nino forming in the coming season (ie >70% vs NOAA 82%)​

NOAA ENSO Alert System Status update: El Niño Watch Synopsis: El Niño is likely to emerge soon (82% chance in May-July 2026) and continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27 (96% chance in December 2026-February 2027) www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana...

“We need the Australian government to choose to be brave on environmental policy, and unfortunately we’ll be waiting at least one more budget night to see that.” theconversation.com/a-real-inter...

The Monjon is a tiny (~1kg) rock wallaby. Like me, it wonders if anyone in budget land even heard of the 63 Nationally Significant Climate Risks identified in the Government's own National Climate Risk Assessment, released 9 months ago. Not a cent spent on 'em. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

A timeline of our rapidly changing planet (through 2025)... I've now added this visualization permanently to my climate change indicators webpage (at the bottom): zacklabe.com/climate-chan.... Check it out there, as it looks much better in its full resolution!

“A climate increasingly shaped by extremes”

Spiralling global temperatures (1850-2026) It is exactly 10 years since I first put this animated graphic of changes in global temperature online. #ClimateSpiral It instantly went viral. People watched it over and over again. It still offers the power to shock a decade on.

New Zealand's second National Climate Change Risk Assessment (NCCRA) has been released today, as required under their Climate Change Response Act 2002. www.climatecommission.govt.nz/our-work/ada... Press Release: www.climatecommission.govt.nz/news/acting-...

🚨 Monday ice update - #Arctic sea ice extent is currently the *lowest* on record (JAXA data)... • about 510,000 km² below the 2010s mean • about 900,000 km² below the 2000s mean • about 1,290,000 km² below the 1990s mean • about 1,770,000 km² below the 1980s mean More: zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-i...

Second driest April on record for NSW, behind April 1997 at the start of the strong 1997-98 El Niño. Also driest April for the Murray Darling Basin since 1997, and the 7th driest April for the MDB on record. www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/clim...

Not exactly May weather… (Melbourne mean May maximum: 16.7°C) www.baywx.com.au/melbtempmax....

Awaiting the May update to the Multi Model ensemble for the 2026 Global Mean Temperature: at the start of April, the median forecast for 2026 was around +1.55, equal to the 2024 record. nmme.earth.miami.edu/figures/inde...

Avalanche deaths in Europe surged this year. Lotsa human factors, but also "What we observed this season – long, dry, very cold spells followed by intense snowfall – is consistent with what we expect from climate change". Its also what can happen in El Nino in Aus www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

“the latest stupid move made by a president who continues to harm science and American innovation.” Trump fires the entire board of the National Science Foundation and demands a 55% cut in its budget. www.science.org/content/arti...

The rate of global warming has increased significantly in the last decade. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

#ridetoworkmelb #melbweather

We only have to back roughly a decade for an example of a model-predicted "super El Niño" that failed to make it through the infamous spring predictability barrier. Nice discussion here: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

If you didn't get the whiplash summer big rain, you're probably thinking "will I plant a crop at all?". No April rainfall, little rain this year, soils drying out, El Nino forecast, Urea & fuel & diesel price vulnerability. Tough time to farm. 1/5 April to date rain www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps...

#ridetoworkmelb #melbweather

#ridetoworkmelb #melbweather

The National Climate Risk Assessment identified the import of (fossil) fuel as a key vulnerability in its National Security system report, and in its workshops with security system experts. www.acs.gov.au/documents/3f...

In 2004 Australia decided to let the global fossil fuel market decide our energy future. That same year China decided fossil fuels were costly and risky so went with electrification (noting Strait of Hormuz and Malacca Strait were threats to their National Security). www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04...

Australia's energy minister is skipping global meetings on accelerating the phase-out of fossil fuels because he has to stay in Australia to deal with the fallout from not phasing fossil fuels out fast enough.

The "super-El Nino" talk is unhelpful clickbait hype. Current consensus forecast is for a Nino3.4 index of ~1.3C to materialize later this year. That's a *moderate* El Nino; pales in comparison w/ recent (e.g. 2016 & 2024) events. The truth remains bad enough! www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana...

This will never be easy... but it is inevitable and unavoidable. www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04...

Revisiting the near-term projection from IPCC AR5 climatelabbook.substack.com/p/revisiting...

We are currently at El Nino WATCH levels. Using the BoM's former ENSO alerting system criteria, the current ENSO status would be El Nino WATCH, meaning ~50% chance of an El Nino event occurring in 2026. Details at: docs.google.com/document/d/1...

Ashamed this is even mentioned in Australian politics by a major party. Many First Nations people may not pass - let alone agree with - the first two, which alone makes it a vile policy.

Good ECMWF article on El Niño strength possibilities by Tim Stockdale. Now is a low accuracy time to make strength forecasts. 2023 and 2017 had some similarities to now - 2023 forecast reasonable, 2017 forecast a bust. Alert but not alarmed is the best advice right now. www.ecmwf.int/en/about/med...

"In May-July 2026, El Niño is likely to emerge (61% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026." NOAA ENSO Diagnostic Discussion updated overnight. I'd agree with that... El Nino WATCH with a 50-60% chance of an event in 2026. www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ana...

#ridetoworkmelb #melbweather

Bugger (Australia: Cooktown) charts.ecmwf.int/products/cyc...

A decent burst of tropical westerly winds (1st frame), being helped now by TC Maila and Severe Tropical Cyclone Vaianu, has triggered off another Kelvin Wave in the ocean (3rd frame). What does this mean? The chance of El Nino is rising (but still some way to go). www.pmel.noaa.gov/gtmba/assort...

Pick your fighter: ONI or RONI at nmme.earth.miami.edu/figures/inde...

Live with Dr Shane and Dr Ray on 3RRR Einstein a Go Go. And daughter Sarah Watkins joined us too! Talking climate change, social sciences, generational baselines and the importance of the arts/science interface. Plus my new role with the Climate Council. Listen at www.rrr.org.au/shared/broad...

I’ll be gobbling down the Easter Sunday chocky with Dr Shane from the 3RRR studios 11am-12, talking whiplash summer, the recent WMO summary of the 2025 climate, & maybe a bit on my new role with the Climate Council. Melbourne 102.7FM (or online) 11am-12 Sunday 5 April www.rrr.org.au/explore/prog...

John McBride and Neville Nicholls changed the way we think about flood and drought years in Australia. Today 'El Nino' is a word every Aussie knows. Back in 1982, it was just a word for boffins. These two guys changed all that. And are still alive. www.youtube.com/watch?v=1E-V...

Looks as though peak cherry blossom in Tokyo was March 28 - the 87th day of the year. The last three times it occurred earlier were in 2023 (March 25), 2021 (March 26), and 1409 (March 27). Yes, 617 years ago. Data at: ourworldindata.org/grapher/date...

Climate change is the security threat that Australian's judge most likely but the one for which they feel least prepared. Concern is highest among younger peope, women, and the university-educated. New ANU National Security report nsc.anu.edu.au/research/no-...

Its now 6 months since the release of the Government's first ever National Climate Risk Assessment (NCRA). The climate risks to the nation outlined in the NCRA were sobering. Government action since? Five new coal & gas projects approved, all beyond 2050. www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/al...

👀 This is amazing to watch!! The flow of moist air immediately around the cyclone is obvious. But look how tropical moisture is delivered into the central arids parts of Australia, and how connected systems dump rain on the east coast. These teleconnections are incredible to see

The big lap. Severe TC Narelle. www.bom.gov.au/warning/trop...

Editorial in The Saturday Paper on the BoM paying Accenture $96m for its new website, copping stick about it, then going back to pay them another $16m for an ACS platform. Accenture says it targets people to give them government projects. www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/comment/edit... archive.md/JHUp4

A reminder that gas is NOT a vital industry to Australia – if anything, it COSTS the Australian economy. Australia Institute research shows a 25% tax on gas exports could solve the gas crisis – and raise $17 billion every year. ✍ Sign the petition: https://theaus.in/4uTyGWX

Just over a foot of additional sea level above the tide height as TC Narelle passed Cape Cuvier, NW of Carnarvon, around high tide. With waves on top of that, expect some coastal damage. www.bom.gov.au/cosppac/rtdd...

Almost-global-average sea-surface temperatures are creeping up to record levels again and we’re still in La Niña (according to NOAA). There’s some uncertainty though as you can see from these two datasets..