Another day another strange technological manifesto to critique. open.substack.com/pub/danieldr...

This is shameful

Die Frage ist ja nicht ob, sondern wann US-Waffenlieferungen auch für europäische NATO-Staaten zum unberechenbaren Glücksspiel werden

It was a pleasure to join @pbsnews.org for the current episode of Compass Points to discuss the Vice Preisdent‘s diplomatic engagement, the US war on Iran, Hungary, and much more. Thanks @lisad.bsky.social for the great questions! @amgerinst.bsky.social youtu.be/tKO58Qu44uk?...

New era alliance management…

A notable warning, coming from a head of state in Europe who has one of the closest relations with Donald Trump.

Hm.

No agreement is ever final...which makes it ever more hard to reach any new ones with anybody... “We gave them a good trade deal. Better than I had to. Which can always be changed,” Trump said

This paper represents a small but deeply impressive and genuinely important achievement by the much maligned British state in what is probably the most important global issue of our era. Hear me out ( 🧵) 1/ www.aisi.gov.uk/blog/our-eva...

⚡️ Germany, Ukraine elevate ties to strategic partnership with new defense deal. "Now, more than ever before, we want to learn from one another," German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said.

Hungary chose to be a member of the EU. And Hungarian voters overwhelmingly rejected Orban’s anti-EU stance. MAGA can’t get its head around this.

My thoughts in this BBC piece on the negotiation dynamic as US-Iran talks begin in Pakistan www.bbc.com/news/article...

Hab die Ehre gehabt, meine Sicht auf den Iran-USA-Verhandlungen mit dem NDR-Radio zu diskutieren. Vielen Dank @ndr.de ! My thoughts on the U.S. negotiations with Iran, in German, with NDR Radio👇🏻

The cost to rebuild US bases in GER, ITA, ESP, etc. in other parts of EUR would be enormous, take years. To say nothing of negotiating new basing arrangements, US access and operational restrictions. This @wsj.com piece suggests Pentagon reliving the 2020 Trump scramble to move from GER to BEL.

So, if Hungary is the best EU friend of Russia and China, and also offers to help Iran investigate an Israeli operation against Hezbollah...it's hard to recall what the US interest is in trying to save Orban's political skin? www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...

My experience watching Trump "negotiate" with Kim Jong Un was: Kim never offered to disarm, Pompeo would wishcast disarmament, lots of media would amplify, a couple of summits happened, but no deal emerged ... leaving Kim stronger than before. Maybe this time is different.

There's a distinctly MAGA-Republican context to JD Vance's Hungary trip + also a broader anti-EU obsession of the far-right, as @donmoyn.bsky.social highlights in this good 🧵. But during Orban's premiership since 2010, no one has done more to support him than Germany's center-right CDU+CSU leaders.

The president threatening nuclear annihilation of a country against which he launched a war a few weeks ago.

The Iran War has gobbled up a breathtaking amount of U.S. military capability vital for deterring a Chinese attack on Taiwan. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

I think Tuesday we get to find out whether the chairman of the joint chiefs, the CENTCOM commander and others are willing to carry out illegal orders.

One of the greatest decisions the Ukrainians made was in not listening to the western analytic community which was saying that they needed to concentrate on drafting more soldiers and send them to the front.

From the President down, there are a lot of Americans who think our bases in Europe exist mainly to defend Europe. They have no comprehension how logistically crucial they are to our ability to support our forces elsewhere, wherever we choose to send them.

NEW: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has taken steps to block or delay promotions for more than a dozen Black and female senior officers across all four branches of the military, according to nine U.S. officials familiar with the process.

It wouldn’t be a full retread of the Iraq War 23 years later without the Secretary of Defense firing the Army Chief of Staff after an ego-driven power struggle

AEI is making a fired flags tracker so you can assess the replacements are more political. Coles out Monday.

“The basic issue is restoring economic growth. This is a problem with grand coalitions... if you’re dissatisfied with the government, you go to the extremes.” Listen to #TheZeitgeist for more on Germany’s political challenges in a year of state elections: americangerman.institute/podcast/epis...

Apropos of nothing: Available now: our book on the shifting U.S. relationship with Europe, the domestic drivers, and the challenges to global order. A pleasure working with Stefan Froehlich and Jack Janes on this! link.springer.com/book/9783032...

In my excitement I mistyped 😩its almost A BILLION DOLLARS ↘️

Another reminder: the prevailing assumption is that if Ukr agreed to give up Donbas, Ru would immediately stop the war. Ru has promised no such thing. It's very likely Ru would respond by praising the concession as a first step and putting forth more demands to "remove the root causes of the war"

Interested in how the likes of Vance & Rubio respond to this Vance ghosted Olaf Scholz in Munich last year to meet AfD, while Rubio put lipstick on the pig with his own Munich speech in February, but pandered to similar forces. Counterpoint: Vance likely agrees on removing US troops from Germany

Germany's far-right AfD leader calls for withdrawal of all US troops (h/t @abenewman.bsky.social ). Several factors at work: 🧵

something something Hemispheric Dominance something something. www.nytimes.com/2026/03/29/w...

Sandra Wong, the great granddaughter of Wong Kim Ark, is preparing to march at the #NoKings Rally in San Francisco. Today is the 128th Anniversary of the SCOTUS decision affirming birthright citizenship.

There is close to zero reason for European leaders to expect US support in a conflict with Russia unless American servicemembers or US assets in Europe are directly attacked by Moscow.

This guy sounds smart. Laid out Iran's moves with incredible foresight. Too bad he no longer works as the National Security Council’s director for Iran b/c some online nutjob does not like him and that is enough to get experts shitcanned from government these days. www.politico.com/newsletters/...

www.ft.com/content/4f09... Genuinely hard to overstate how much of a strategic defeat it would be for the United States if the war ends with effective Iranian control of the Strait.

Rubio: Iran May Own The Strait Now, And That’s a Huge Bummer

He fired a Black man who was the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. He fired a woman who was the CNO. I could go on. How much more evidence do we need.

MOFCOM readout of Sefcovic-Wang talks at WTO is unusually specific Lays out China's quid pro quo: ASML for exports "China is willing to expand EU imports & hopes the EU will ease export controls on hi-tech products & avoid politicising or weaponising economic and trade issues"

Leaders of far-right Alternative for Germany are quietly distancing themselves from Donald Trump as backlash over the Iran war grows and important elections loom. 🔗 www.politico.eu/article/afd-...

Trumps Drohungen gegen die NATO (vorgeblich, weil sie ihm nicht beim Krieg im Iran hilft) führen zum Kern des Problems: Für ihn ist das keine Allianz zum Schutz gegen äußere Feinde, sondern ein Hebel, um innerhalb des Bündnisses Wohlverhalten zu erzwingen. Ich erkläre das ausführlich in meinem Buch.

We’re seeing a massive escalation in Ukraine’s #kineticsanctions campaign. Over the last few days, long-range drone strikes have hammered the Saratov refinery and major Baltic export hubs at Ust-Luga and Primorsk. The strategy is shifting from "difficult" to "systemic shutdown." 🧵 1/

Merz’s remarks underscore how surging trade and geopolitical tensions with Washington are nudging parts of Europe towards a more accommodating stance on China, even as Brussels insists the conditions for any formal deal remain far from being met.

Heckuva job Rutte

US position on principles for ending Russian war in Ukraine increasingly difficult to distinguish from Moscow's own policies.

Latest episode of #TheZeitgeist @amgerinst.bsky.social -- we assess German political trajectory after 2 state elex this month, and what it means for Chancellor Merz and his coalition. Join me, @phyberdc.bsky.social and Eric Langenbacher for a timely look! americangerman.institute/podcast/epis...

"Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs confirmed later on Wednesday that the drone was Ukrainian – this unmanned aerial vehicle was part of a coordinated Ukrainian operation against Russian targets."

Russian drone strikes Estonia power plant chimney, per Estonian internal security ISS statement. The drone entered Estonian airspace from Russian airspace. Auvere power plant, operated by the Enefit Power group, is located in northeastern Estonia, near RU border. insiderpaper.com/drone-from-r...

I've lost count of the times the West has 'bribed' Lukashenko to improve human rights in Belarus (I was involved in one effort in 1999). It always fails, & he always locks up some more critics to be ready for the next round. The additional error this time is to make Russian sanctions evasion easier.

A great edition today of Cross Purposes newsletter. Captures China's "divide & rule" approach to Europe, described as "precision diplomacy" On the industrial accelerator act "We can exploit internal EU divisions to conduct 'precision diplomacy' and rule-based bargaining"