Pure tariff chaos from the US administration. No one can make sense of it anymore — only open questions and growing uncertainty for the EU and other US trading partners (1/3)

To look for in the week to come: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

A few thoughts on possible US-Iran conflict (1/11):

Next week Friedrich Merz will embark on his first visit to China since taking office. The vibes, as they say, will be off. My piece on a relationship that has become a lot more complicated in recent years. www.economist.com/europe/2026/...

This is one of things that sounds great in a speech, but given that the EU couldn't even deliver a response of its own to Trump's tariffs, the idea that it would be able to do it with a sprawling and diverse group of countries feels fanciful at best.

wow

👇

Einige Passagen der Rubio-Rede hätten von Björn Höcke geschrieben werden können. „…von Schuld und Scham gefesselt“ passt in die Reihe mit Höcke‘s „Denkmal der Schande“ Formulierung

Gestern durfte ich mit @sarananni.bsky.social , @nicolekoenig.bsky.social + @helgaschmidt.bsky.social die Ergebnisse der MSC 2026 diskutieren. Danke an die Petra-Kelly-Stiftung und @margaretebause.bsky.social für die Einladung, und an Birgit Frank für Moderation www.youtube.com/live/Yru_cr7...

Hab‘ die Ehre gehabt, mit @ndr.de die Ergebnisse der Münchner Sicherheitskonferenz zu diskutieren - vielen Dank für die Einladung! : „Rubios Botschaft war die gleiche wie die von Vance, besser verpackt” www.ndr.de/nachrichten/... www.ndr.de/nachrichten/...

@nicolange.bsky.social hat recht - gute Folge des @annewill.bsky.social -Podcasts, sehr hörenswert

Habe mich riesig gefreut! Danke an das Politikteil für die Einladung!

Outstanding and timely report from @noahbarkin.bsky.social and his Rhodium Group colleagues - a must-read for those interested in German and European economic relations with China 👇

Full note here:

Poles no longer trusting the US for protection is a really big story. 27% of respondents see EU states as main source of assistance in emergency vs 15% the Americans. That said nearly 25% say Poland cannot on either US or EU states. h/t @euractiv.com

Moskau versucht, den Friedensprozess durch Korruption zu zerstören: Ein Mega‑Wirtschaftspaket soll die USA vom geopolitischen Gegner zum Geschäftspartner machen. Wer vermeintlich Milliarden oder "Billionen" verdienen kann, stellt keine Sicherheitsgarantien mehr. 1/

FT exclusive: “The US state department is set to fund Maga-aligned think-tanks and charities across Europe to disseminate Washington’s policy positions and challenge perceived threats to free speech.” via @annasophiegross.bsky.social and colleagues

A real change in how Germany approaches the EU is happening. Berlin used to prioritise the unity of the 27 and now seems much more open towards coalitions of the willing. Next step is initiative by Finance minister Klingenbeil to build an avant-garde with 🇫🇷🇵🇱🇮🇹🇳🇱🇪🇸:

The mother of all diversification partnerships. My @tagesspiegel.de piece (in 🇩🇪) on the meaning of India-EU trade agreement. Congratulations on everyone on both sides who worked hard to close the deal(s). Real work of making the most of this historic opportunity starts now.

73% of EU citizens polled think that when it comes to defence, Europe "must now rely solely on itself, without counting on the support of the United States"

We want strong trans-Atlantic ties. But Europe needs to adapt to new realities. It is no longer Washington’s primary centre of gravity. It’s time for Europe to step up and act with urgency. Extract of my speech at the European Defence Agency conference ↓

Trump: "Based upon a very productive meeting I had with Mark Rutte, we have formed the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland and, in fact, the entire Arctic Region. This solution, if consummated, will be a great one... Based upon this understanding, I will not be imposing the Tariffs"

#Polen gibt die Zielstruktur seiner #Streitkräfte 2039 bekannt: Die Gesamtstärke: 500.000 - davon 300.000 aktive Soldatinnen und Soldaten sowie 200.000 Reservisten. defence24.com/armed-forces...

der versuch mit rationalen argumenten ein irrationales argument zu beantworten funktioniert nicht. auf dieses irrationale machtargument muss man letztendlich mit machtargumenten antworten. true! @claudmajor.bsky.social 👇

Gemeinsame Erklärung von Dänemark, Finnland, Frankreich, Deutschland, den Niederlanden, Norwegen, Schweden und dem Vereinigten Königreich.

Why America still needs Europe US firms sell $3.6 trillion worth of stuff to Europeans. There are valuable military bases across Europe that allow America to project power globally. And the US is infinitely more powerful as the leader of The West, ie with Europe www.economist.com/europe/2025/...

First statement from Macron: “Tariff threats are unacceptable and have no place in this context. Should they materialise, Europeans will respond in a united and coordinated manner. We will ensure that European sovereignty is upheld. In this spirit, I will speak with our European partners.”

Shameful and destructive

Woah Nellie, Trump rekindles the trade war with Europe over Greenland. The President announces 10% tariffs on France, Germany, the Netherlands, the UK (yes), Denmark and the rest of Scandinavia. The tariffs will rise to 25% on June 1st unless Greenland is sold to the US. 1/

The Danish Armed Forces have released new photos from the operation that, over the past few days, has deployed Danish and allied reinforcements to Greenland.

Telling interview with German defence minister Pistorius. He goes out of his way to stress that the German soldiers on their way to Greenland are to deter Russia & China, not the US. Tries to argue that he does not believe the US will actually seize Greenland by force, referring to Congress.

The righteous opposition to a U.S. attempt to annex Greenland is focused justifiably at this point on a) the will of the people of Greenland and Denmark, b) the catastrophic effect it would have on America's most important alliance, NATO, and c) the breach of int'l law and erosion of int'l norms 1/

President Emmanuel Macron warned President Trump today that any attempt by the United States to grab Greenland would unleash a “cascade” of “unprecedented consequences”. He also spoke of French “actions” if Demark’s sovereignty was infringed..1/

Hard to be much clearer...

GER FM Wadephul @aussenminister.diplo.de stops demonstratively in Reykjavik en route to DC for mtg w/Sec Rubio. Backdrop: Trump pressure->DEN+EUR re Greenland. GER stresses security impt'ce of Arctic, should be dealt with in NATO, w/interests of all allies respected. Mentions Greenland by name.

Joint statement by 4 former officials in Democratic and Republican Administrations—including four NATO Ambassadors, 3 Assistant Secretaries of State for Europe, and 3 NSC Senior Directors. Excellent opening in particular.

Kaine: "I can tell you this -- we will force a vote in the Senate about no US military action in Greenland or Denmark if we need to. We will get overwhelmingly bipartisan support that this president is foolish to even suggest this."

Sweden to invest $1.6 billion in air defence systems reut.rs/3NhmIoE

Schweden plant neue territoriale Luftverteidigung (und nimmt das Geld dafür in die Hand) nach den Erfahrungen der Ukraine (h/t @bjoernm.bsky.social)

The Russian war in Ukraine = reminder of defense dependency of US allies on space systems for their security. Changing U.S. priorities highlight the vulnerability of Europe in this field. Join us Jan. 13 for insights into Germany's new space security strategy and what it means for GER and Europe!

??? Apparently Venezuela oil revenues will go into “offshore accounts” outside of the US Treasury, PBS reports.

4/But with Trump's comments from yesterday you see a different picture. He is putting himself at the center of a set of private goods that he can then distribute selectively. Very similar to the deals over exemptions and investments from the tariffs. www.cnbc.com/2025/04/14/a...

According to Chancellor Merz, Germany is offering to deploy soldiers in neighbouring NATO territory in Eastern Europe to secure a ceasefire in Ukraine. German government and lawmakers would have to decide on nature/scope of contribution once conditions for a ceasefire had been clarified @reuters.com

At the end of last year, a German official said the German position on security and defence should be to stay transatlantic as long as possible, and become more European as quickly as possible. I wonder if the timelines and calculations for both are already changing due to recent events.

The defeatists masking as realists are already calling for Europe to just abandon Greenland to the US.

Amazing situation where the six large European NATO members (France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, United Kingdom) issue joint statement with Denmark reaffirming Greenland/Denmark autonomy, NATO membership after threat from Trump regime to take Greenland. stm.dk/statsministe...

Notable: GER govt spox Kornelius announces replacement of Chanc. Merz's office chief. Philipp Birkenmaier takes over from Jacob Schrot. Schrot was also head of the GER Nat'l Security Council, which will now be led by Chancellery official Guenter Sautter www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktu...

Bundeskanzler Friedrich Merz hat sich von seinem Büroleiter Jacob Schrot getrennt, damit war zunächst unklar, wer die Stabsstelle Nationaler Sicherheitsrat leitet. Das soll jetzt vorerst der außenpolitische Kanzlerberater Günter Sautter tun.