Jeff Rathke
@jeffrathke.bsky.social
đ€ 491
đ„ 308
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Pres. American-German Institute; ex-diplomat; ex-CSIS; Pittsburgher
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Jeff Rathke
Daniel Drezner
about 2 hours ago
Another day another strange technological manifesto to critique.
open.substack.com/pub/danieldr...
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Another Bizarre Corporate Manifesto Released Into the Wild
Another Silicon Valley CEO aspires for profundity and lands... somewhere else
https://open.substack.com/pub/danieldrezner/p/another-bizarre-corporate-manifesto?r=rjjdx&utm_medium=ios
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Jeff Rathke
Kai Ryssdal
about 16 hours ago
This is shameful
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Jeff Rathke
Thomas Wiegold
2 days ago
Die Frage ist ja nicht ob, sondern wann US-Waffenlieferungen auch fĂŒr europĂ€ische NATO-Staaten zum unberechenbaren GlĂŒcksspiel werden
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Estonia's HIMARS ammunition held up by US weapons deliveries delays
The delay in U.S. defense deliveries mainly affects Estonia's ammunition for the HIMARS multiple rocket launcher system, some of which was supposed to arrive already this year.
https://news.err.ee/1610000377/estonia-s-himars-ammunition-held-up-by-us-weapons-deliveries-delays
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It was a pleasure to join
@pbsnews.org
for the current episode of Compass Points to discuss the Vice Preisdentâs diplomatic engagement, the US war on Iran, Hungary, and much more. Thanks
@lisad.bsky.social
for the great questions!
@amgerinst.bsky.social
youtu.be/tKO58Qu44uk?...
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Vance faces first global test as U.S. negotiator with Iran
YouTube video by PBS NewsHour
https://youtu.be/tKO58Qu44uk?si=8NhUgeur2c8XFUFq
4 days ago
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Jeff Rathke
Mick Ryan
5 days ago
New era alliance managementâŠ
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A notable warning, coming from a head of state in Europe who has one of the closest relations with Donald Trump.
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5 days ago
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Jeff Rathke
Thomas Wiegold
6 days ago
Hm.
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France, Germany split on potential US role in European plans to help secure Hormuz
While Europe talks, the Trump administration says U.S. forces can protect the waterway on their own.
https://www.politico.eu/article/france-germany-split-potential-us-role-european-plans-help-secure-hormuz/
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No agreement is ever final...which makes it ever more hard to reach any new ones with anybody... âWe gave them a good trade deal. Better than I had to. Which can always be changed,â Trump said
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7 days ago
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Jeff Rathke
Ciaran Martin
8 days ago
This paper represents a small but deeply impressive and genuinely important achievement by the much maligned British state in what is probably the most important global issue of our era. Hear me out ( đ§”) 1/
www.aisi.gov.uk/blog/our-eva...
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Our evaluation of Claude Mythos Previewâs cyber capabilities | AISI Work
We conducted cyber evaluations of Anthropicâs Claude Mythos Preview and found continued improvement in capture-the-flag (CTF) challenges and significant improvement on multi-step cyber-attack simulati...
https://www.aisi.gov.uk/blog/our-evaluation-of-claude-mythos-previews-cyber-capabilities
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Jeff Rathke
The Kyiv Independent
8 days ago
âĄïž Germany, Ukraine elevate ties to strategic partnership with new defense deal. "Now, more than ever before, we want to learn from one another," German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said.
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Germany, Ukraine elevate ties to strategic partnership with new defense deal
"Now, more than ever before, we want to learn from one another," German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said.
https://kyivindependent.com/germany-ukraine-elevate-ties-to-strategic-partnership
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Jeff Rathke
Noah Barkin
8 days ago
Hungary chose to be a member of the EU. And Hungarian voters overwhelmingly rejected Orbanâs anti-EU stance. MAGA canât get its head around this.
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My thoughts in this BBC piece on the negotiation dynamic as US-Iran talks begin in Pakistan
www.bbc.com/news/article...
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Trump has handed JD Vance his most difficult mission yet
As the US vice-president leads peace talks with Iran, he must balance warring factions, a demanding boss and his own political future.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1d9z1q2997o
11 days ago
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Hab die Ehre gehabt, meine Sicht auf den Iran-USA-Verhandlungen mit dem NDR-Radio zu diskutieren. Vielen Dank
@ndr.de
! My thoughts on the U.S. negotiations with Iran, in German, with NDR Radiođđ»
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12 days ago
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The cost to rebuild US bases in GER, ITA, ESP, etc. in other parts of EUR would be enormous, take years. To say nothing of negotiating new basing arrangements, US access and operational restrictions. This
@wsj.com
piece suggests Pentagon reliving the 2020 Trump scramble to move from GER to BEL.
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14 days ago
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So, if Hungary is the best EU friend of Russia and China, and also offers to help Iran investigate an Israeli operation against Hezbollah...it's hard to recall what the US interest is in trying to save Orban's political skin?
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...
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After pager attack on Hezbollah, Hungary offered help to Iran
Revelations about a 2024 call offering assistance raise questions about Hungaryâs ties to Iran as the Trump administration backs Prime Minister Viktor Orban for reelection.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/04/08/hungary-iran-hezbollah-trump-orban/
14 days ago
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Jeff Rathke
Jeffrey Lewis
14 days ago
My experience watching Trump "negotiate" with Kim Jong Un was: Kim never offered to disarm, Pompeo would wishcast disarmament, lots of media would amplify, a couple of summits happened, but no deal emerged ... leaving Kim stronger than before. Maybe this time is different.
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There's a distinctly MAGA-Republican context to JD Vance's Hungary trip + also a broader anti-EU obsession of the far-right, as
@donmoyn.bsky.social
highlights in this good đ§”. But during Orban's premiership since 2010, no one has done more to support him than Germany's center-right CDU+CSU leaders.
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15 days ago
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The president threatening nuclear annihilation of a country against which he launched a war a few weeks ago.
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15 days ago
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Jeff Rathke
Caitlin Talmadge
16 days ago
The Iran War has gobbled up a breathtaking amount of U.S. military capability vital for deterring a Chinese attack on Taiwan.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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US Deploys Bulk of Stealthy Long-Range Missile for Iran War
The next steps in the US military campaign against Iran will commit nearly its entire inventory of stealthy JASSM-ER cruise missiles, drawing them from stockpiles devoted to other regions.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-04/us-deploys-bulk-of-stealthy-long-range-missile-for-iran-war?embedded-checkout=true
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Jeff Rathke
Shashank Joshi
17 days ago
I think Tuesday we get to find out whether the chairman of the joint chiefs, the CENTCOM commander and others are willing to carry out illegal orders.
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Jeff Rathke
Phillips OBrien
19 days ago
One of the greatest decisions the Ukrainians made was in not listening to the western analytic community which was saying that they needed to concentrate on drafting more soldiers and send them to the front.
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reposted by
Jeff Rathke
Patrick Chovanec
19 days ago
From the President down, there are a lot of Americans who think our bases in Europe exist mainly to defend Europe. They have no comprehension how logistically crucial they are to our ability to support our forces elsewhere, wherever we choose to send them.
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reposted by
Jeff Rathke
NBC News
20 days ago
NEW: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has taken steps to block or delay promotions for more than a dozen Black and female senior officers across all four branches of the military, according to nine U.S. officials familiar with the process.
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Hegseth has intervened in military promotions for more than a dozen senior officers
The defense secretaryâs efforts to block or delay promotions to general or admiral for some officers has raised concerns that he may be targeting them because of race, gender or affiliation with the B...
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/hegseth-intervened-military-promotions-dozen-senior-officers-rcna266062
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Jeff Rathke
Spencer Ackerman
20 days ago
It wouldnât be a full retread of the Iraq War 23 years later without the Secretary of Defense firing the Army Chief of Staff after an ego-driven power struggle
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Hegseth Fires Army Chief Amid Battle With Its Leaders
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/02/us/politics/hegseth-fires-general-randy-george.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share
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reposted by
Jeff Rathke
Kori Schake
20 days ago
AEI is making a fired flags tracker so you can assess the replacements are more political. Coles out Monday.
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reposted by
Jeff Rathke
American-German Institute
20 days ago
âThe basic issue is restoring economic growth. This is a problem with grand coalitions... if youâre dissatisfied with the government, you go to the extremes.â Listen to
#TheZeitgeist
for more on Germanyâs political challenges in a year of state elections:
americangerman.institute/podcast/epis...
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Episode 143: Germanyâs Political Barometer
Two state elections in western Germany this month resulted in one win for Chancellor Merzâs Christian Democrats and two poor outcomes for the Social Democrats. The Alternative for Germany, meanwhile, ...
https://americangerman.institute/podcast/episode-143-germanys-political-barometer/
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Apropos of nothing: Available now: our book on the shifting U.S. relationship with Europe, the domestic drivers, and the challenges to global order. A pleasure working with Stefan Froehlich and Jack Janes on this!
link.springer.com/book/9783032...
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Transatlantic Fracture
This book provides a comprehensive overview of the evolving transatlantic relationship in light of the United Statesâ recent domestic upheavals.
https://link.springer.com/book/9783032140074
21 days ago
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Jeff Rathke
Marietje Schaake
21 days ago
In my excitement I mistyped đ©its almost A BILLION DOLLARS âïž
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Jeff Rathke
Maria Popova
23 days ago
Another reminder: the prevailing assumption is that if Ukr agreed to give up Donbas, Ru would immediately stop the war. Ru has promised no such thing. It's very likely Ru would respond by praising the concession as a first step and putting forth more demands to "remove the root causes of the war"
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Jeff Rathke
Finbarr Bermingham
23 days ago
Interested in how the likes of Vance & Rubio respond to this Vance ghosted Olaf Scholz in Munich last year to meet AfD, while Rubio put lipstick on the pig with his own Munich speech in February, but pandered to similar forces. Counterpoint: Vance likely agrees on removing US troops from Germany
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Germany's far-right AfD leader calls for withdrawal of all US troops (h/t
@abenewman.bsky.social
). Several factors at work: đ§”
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23 days ago
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something something Hemispheric Dominance something something.
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/29/w...
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U.S. Allows Russian Oil Tanker to Reach Cuba, Despite Blockade
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/29/world/americas/cuba-russian-oil-tanlker.html
23 days ago
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Jeff Rathke
AsAmNews
25 days ago
Sandra Wong, the great granddaughter of Wong Kim Ark, is preparing to march at the
#NoKings
Rally in San Francisco. Today is the 128th Anniversary of the SCOTUS decision affirming birthright citizenship.
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There is close to zero reason for European leaders to expect US support in a conflict with Russia unless American servicemembers or US assets in Europe are directly attacked by Moscow.
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25 days ago
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Jeff Rathke
Don Moynihan
25 days ago
This guy sounds smart. Laid out Iran's moves with incredible foresight. Too bad he no longer works as the National Security Councilâs director for Iran b/c some online nutjob does not like him and that is enough to get experts shitcanned from government these days.
www.politico.com/newsletters/...
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Jeff Rathke
Duncan Weldon
25 days ago
www.ft.com/content/4f09...
Genuinely hard to overstate how much of a strategic defeat it would be for the United States if the war ends with effective Iranian control of the Strait.
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Jeff Rathke
TPM
26 days ago
Rubio: Iran May Own The Strait Now, And Thatâs a Huge Bummer
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Rubio: Iran May Own The Strait Now, And Thatâs a Huge Bummer
Secretary of State Marco Rubio today made some extraordinary comments today after...
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/rubio-iran-own-the-strait-now-and-thats-a-huge-bummer
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Jeff Rathke
Kai Ryssdal
26 days ago
He fired a Black man who was the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. He fired a woman who was the CNO. I could go on. How much more evidence do we need.
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Jeff Rathke
Finbarr Bermingham
26 days ago
MOFCOM readout of Sefcovic-Wang talks at WTO is unusually specific Lays out China's quid pro quo: ASML for exports "China is willing to expand EU imports & hopes the EU will ease export controls on hi-tech products & avoid politicising or weaponising economic and trade issues"
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Jeff Rathke
POLITICO Europe
27 days ago
Leaders of far-right Alternative for Germany are quietly distancing themselves from Donald Trump as backlash over the Iran war grows and important elections loom. đ
www.politico.eu/article/afd-...
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Jeff Rathke
Joerg Lau
27 days ago
Trumps Drohungen gegen die NATO (vorgeblich, weil sie ihm nicht beim Krieg im Iran hilft) fĂŒhren zum Kern des Problems: FĂŒr ihn ist das keine Allianz zum Schutz gegen Ă€uĂere Feinde, sondern ein Hebel, um innerhalb des BĂŒndnisses Wohlverhalten zu erzwingen. Ich erklĂ€re das ausfĂŒhrlich in meinem Buch.
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Jeff Rathke
Sven-Erik Volberg
28 days ago
Weâre seeing a massive escalation in Ukraineâs
#kineticsanctions
campaign. Over the last few days, long-range drone strikes have hammered the Saratov refinery and major Baltic export hubs at Ust-Luga and Primorsk. The strategy is shifting from "difficult" to "systemic shutdown." đ§” 1/
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Jeff Rathke
Finbarr Bermingham
27 days ago
Merzâs remarks underscore how surging trade and geopolitical tensions with Washington are nudging parts of Europe towards a more accommodating stance on China, even as Brussels insists the conditions for any formal deal remain far from being met.
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Jeff Rathke
Max Bergmann
27 days ago
Heckuva job Rutte
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US position on principles for ending Russian war in Ukraine increasingly difficult to distinguish from Moscow's own policies.
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28 days ago
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Latest episode of
#TheZeitgeist
@amgerinst.bsky.social
-- we assess German political trajectory after 2 state elex this month, and what it means for Chancellor Merz and his coalition. Join me,
@phyberdc.bsky.social
and Eric Langenbacher for a timely look!
americangerman.institute/podcast/epis...
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Episode 143: Germanyâs Political Barometer
Two state elections in western Germany this month resulted in one win for Chancellor Merzâs Christian Democrats and two poor outcomes for the Social Democrats. The Alternative for Germany, meanwhile, ...
https://americangerman.institute/podcast/episode-143-germanys-political-barometer/
28 days ago
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Jeff Rathke
Thomas Wiegold
28 days ago
"Latvian President Edgars RinkÄviÄs confirmed later on Wednesday that the drone was Ukrainian â this unmanned aerial vehicle was part of a coordinated Ukrainian operation against Russian targets."
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Drone flies into Latvian territory from Russia and falls
The Latvian Air Force has identified a foreign unmanned aerial vehicle entering Latvian airspace from Russia, according to the National Armed Forces (NBS), the Defence Ministry reports on Wednesday mo...
https://eng.lsm.lv/article/society/defence/25.03.2026-drone-flies-into-latvian-territory-from-russia-and-falls.a640310/
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Jeff Rathke
Olga Nesterova
28 days ago
Russian drone strikes Estonia power plant chimney, per Estonian internal security ISS statement. The drone entered Estonian airspace from Russian airspace. Auvere power plant, operated by the Enefit Power group, is located in northeastern Estonia, near RU border.
insiderpaper.com/drone-from-r...
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Estonia, Latvia say struck by drones
A drone coming from Russian airspace hit a chimney of a power plant in Estonia while another fell on Latvian territory, authorities in the two Baltic
https://insiderpaper.com/drone-from-russian-airspace-strikes-estonia-power-plant-security-service/
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Jeff Rathke
Ian Bond
30 days ago
I've lost count of the times the West has 'bribed' Lukashenko to improve human rights in Belarus (I was involved in one effort in 1999). It always fails, & he always locks up some more critics to be ready for the next round. The additional error this time is to make Russian sanctions evasion easier.
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Jeff Rathke
Finbarr Bermingham
about 1 month ago
A great edition today of Cross Purposes newsletter. Captures China's "divide & rule" approach to Europe, described as "precision diplomacy" On the industrial accelerator act "We can exploit internal EU divisions to conduct 'precision diplomacy' and rule-based bargaining"
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