The month I fear is October 2028. Due to weather conditions and currents, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is best executed in either April or October. If the US descends into internal turmoil before the presidential elections on 7 November 2028, Taiwan may face a moment of unprecedented vulnerability.

🇵🇹🇺🇦 Thank you, Lisbon. Thank you, Portugal. Your steadfast support for Ukraine means more than words can say. We see it, we feel it, and we will never forget it.

Yet another prediction materialises. Ukraine hit the Shatura Power Station in Moscow Oblast hard last night. It is close enough to Moscow to be problematic for Muscovites to lose, but too far to the east to defend. The plant partly relies on US- and German-made equipment. bsky.app/profile/paxl...

Fuel shortages of 92- and especially 95-octane petrol are now being reported in Yaroslavl Oblast. Minor detail: That region hosts the fifth-largest oil refinery in Russia.

This is potentially VERY important. Tuapse is one of the most important ports for Russian oil exports. Ukrainian naval drones attacked a different part of the port in September. bsky.app/profile/spec...

Ukraine's targeted strikes of TPPs in Russia is quite a new phenomenon. It may be partly viewed as a tit-for-tat strategy aiming to deter Russian attacks on similar Ukrainian facilities. We can expect more such strikes, albeit not against nuclear power plants like those near Smolensk and Kursk. 1/2

"Xi told me that he would not sell weapons to Russia, but I know one thing: China is helping Russia. China is not helping Ukraine. China is not interested in our victory and Russia's defeat," Zelensky said during a press conference in Brussels.

Ukraine has been stockpiling Flamingo missiles, with probably a few hundred available at present. Whether originally intended for deterrence or as offensive weapons, renewed Russian strikes may force Ukraine to respond in kind. So what could they aim for? 1/20 www.logicofwar.com/what-is-ukra...

My powers of prediction are not 100% reliable, but my track record has been improving lately. The 330kV electrical substation in Dzhankoy is a key bottleneck in Crimea's power grid. bsky.app/profile/paxl...

This is why the hype around Tomahawk missiles is a ridiculous distraction. The Americans are no longer a reliable ally, and in their current path to internal paralysis not much help to traditional adversaries either. Better for EU-UK and Ukraine to expand production and reduce reliance on the US

This is one of the most easily-readable macroeconomic assessments of the Russian economy that I have read for a while. Thundering applause!

The Ukrainian strikes against the 330kV substation at Simferopol and the 220kV 'Kafa' substation near Feodosia may prove devastating for the electricity grid on Crimea. Without these two electrical nodal points, much of the peninsula will be confined to cold and darkness. bsky.app/profile/did:...

🚨🚨🚨 EXCLUSIVE PHOTO 🚨🚨🚨 The 🇷🇺 Russian 🤿 submarine NOVOROSSIYSK resurfaces! Following recent rumors about technical problems, she continues its journey toward the Baltic Sea for repairs. 🛠️

Time for an updated bingo card! Again, all credit goes to the original author of the work, @KHoholenko on Twitter. In the quoted post, you may find my original recommendations on useful resources when monitoring Ukraine's progress in destroying Russian oil refineries. 1/4 bsky.app/profile/paxl...

One operational A-50U (RF-94268, “Taganrog”, Red 41) arrived at the base between September 24 and 28, likely for maintenance or repair. ❗️ This is the first time such a valuable aircraft for Russia has been based so close to the frontline, within the reach of most Ukrainian UAVs.

An unidentified aircraft from Beja Air Base is currently circling over the exact area where the Russian ships 'RN Neptune' and 'Lauga' are located, possibly escorting the accident-affected (?) Kilo-class submarine 'Novorossiysk'. Probably a P-3 Orion from 601st Squadron of the Portuguese Air Force.

Taiwan's foreign minister in Warsaw: “It is high time for Europe to stand with Taiwan, to forge a robust coalition for our shared values, halt expansion of authoritarian regimes. Taiwan is ready to work with Europe; is Europe ready to work with Taiwan?”

🔻 Satellite images of 🇷🇺 Kacha Air Base as of September 25, 08:22 UTC The airbase housed 5 Be-12 (Mail), 1 An-26 (Curl), 3 MiG-29K (Fulcrum-D), 4 Mi-8 (Hip) and 4 Ka-27/29 (Helix).

I finally got around to have a better look at the fire in Novorossiysk today, which I first suspected had hit a local oil depot. Sadly, it turns out that was not the case. The fire in fact came from a residential building in flames. 1/4 bsky.app/profile/paxl...

Today's Ukrainian attack against Novorossiysk appears to have hit oil installations near the inner port and the main railway station. This video shows an easily recognisable church on the southern shoreline (44.701420, 37.788576), looking north, towards the city centre.

Europe emerges from shadows at Taiwan’s largest defence show "In an arms market long dominated by US, Europe raised its profile at Taiwan’s largest defence show as countries take tentative steps to help Taiwan deal with an increasingly aggressive China"

Amidst the many recent attacks on Russian refineries, Ukrainian drones also hit an oil depot in Prokhorovka, Belgorod Oblast, on 9 September. Comparing Sentinel-2 satellite imagery from 2 and 12 September, it is clear that the facility was almost entirely destroyed. 1/2 bsky.app/profile/noel...

Struggling to keep track of - or make sense of - Ukrainian attacks against Russian oil refineries? Let me try to help: Firstly, see this 'Bingo card' made by @KHoholenko on Twitter. Note that the effect of individual drone strikes differ. A 'hit' refinery is not necessarily a 'destroyed' one. 1/6

Russia recently built a new drone launch site in Bryansk oblast, just 35 kilometers from the border with Ukraine. Imagery from Maxar via @skyfi.bsky.social

A notorious Russia-linked shadow fleet tanker, the 'Jag', has recently changed its name to 'Sea Raker' and is now sailing under the Portuguese flag. I hope the International Shipping Register of Madeira and the Portuguese authorities are paying attention. war-sanctions.gur.gov.ua/en/transport...

In what PM Mette Frederiksen calls "a paradigmatic shift", Denmark has stated that it will acquire long-range precision weapons. Further details were not disclosed. "There is no doubt that Russia will be a threat to Europe and Denmark for years to come", she added. www.reuters.com/world/denmar...

Unfortunately there seems to be no real competition to Boeings P8 - when it comes to surveillance of large sea areas in the Arctics = 🇬🇱 🇩🇰 has given up on loaning such airplanes - all are used a lot by NATO partners these day. Another huge investment in defense. www.dr.dk/nyheder/indl...

Denmark chooses to purchase European air defense systems from France, Italy, Germany, and Norway in the largest Danish military investment ever. European air defense can be delivered faster and more affordably than American Patriot missiles. www.fmn.dk/da/nyheder/2...

Some countries - from India to the US - have lately gotten a lot of flak for continuing to buy Russian goods. But we Europeans are not totally innocent ourselves. To provide an example, let us have a look at what Portugal still imports from Russia. 1/9 www.essential-business.pt/2023/02/27/b...

Russian officer's logic as per the FighterBomber Telegram channel. No wonder they still think they are winning the war.

As a native Jutlander, I am delighted to hear that Ukraine's FPRT is establishing a new solid rocket fuel factory in Vojens, near Skrydstrup Air Base.

I hope relevant stakeholders in the Ukrainian military are aware of the information that this extremely detailed thread encompasses. Knowing the exact coordinates of Russian anti-air assets around strategic targets like the Alabuga drone factory could be... helpful.

The war in Ukraine has exposed Russia’s energy sector to stresses unseen since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Strikes on refineries, rail junctions, depots, and pumping stations are no longer sporadic: they’re systematic. What would it actually take to push the Russian Federation over the edge?

This morning I passed a luxury hotel at Campo Grande in Lisbon. Amidst its customary row of flag poles, I noticed one thing: The US flag was upside down. It was probably no mere lapse - but rather a commentary on how most of us Europeans feel nowadays.

Many years ago, as a teenager in rural Denmark, I wrote a nice little essay about the Russian colonisation of Alaska, mostly based on my battered old copy of Hector Chevigny's "Lord of Alaska". My teacher may have found the topic a bit obscure - but all history always becomes relevant at odd times.

I own a book that seems quite relevant. But I am beginning to suspect that the years mentioned on the cover are wrong.

For all the EU's fault, after a certain point bashing the EU for dynamics emerging from Putin's fanatical inflexibility and Trump's strategic incompetence gets a bit absurd

President of Taiwan Lai Ching-te reaffirmed the country's support for #Ukraine: "Although Taiwan and Ukraine are far apart, …Taiwan firmly stands with the people of Ukraine. I sincerely hope that this irrational war,completely devoid of justice or legitimacy,will come to an end soon."

Russia’s air force can barely see Ukraine coming Ukraine’s strikes have cut Russia’s A-50U fleet to just four planes—two or three near the front, and still not enough. euromaidanpress.com/2025/08/06/r...

How Denmark fell out of love with America. www.wsj.com/world/europe...

Much kudos to Germany, Sweden, Netherlands, and Romania. Europe has come up short at times but incredible work is being spearheaded by these nations (and others) to wrangle batteries for Ukraine while the US sits on the largest Patriot force ever built and has been unable to part with more than 2.

A response to this from Taiwan’s EU envoy in Euractiv "Taiwan has never been part of the PRC There is no question about Taiwan’s status today. Only an authoritarian regime’s denial of a reality its ideology finds inconvenient" www.euractiv.com/section/poli...

These days, an awful lot of Tu-22Ms are at Belaya, with a similarly huge number of Tu-95s at Ukrainka. Siberian air bases are crowded.

Wrote a little love letter to Denmark 🫶🇩🇰 In good Nordic style, I of course had to dunk on them a little. But the main point is: if all European countries were more like Denmark, Ukraine and Europe would be in a very different place now. On the Europe Dispatch with @phillipspobrien.bsky.social

🔵 Mechanized and infantry units of the Taiwanese army are carrying out urban and anti-landing operations at the entrances to the capital, Taipei, as part of ongoing nationwide exercises. These are the largest drills in the country’s history, simulating a full-scale invasion by China.

This is an insanely high concentration of Russian strategic bombers at a single air base. Ukrainka is in the distant Russian Far East, but one can always hope for an 'Operation Spiderweb 2.0'.

I love Denmark. The Danes deliver some good news about every 2-3 days. If you want to cure your depression, start reading Danish news !

The Ohio-class SSGN USS Michigan took on fuel and other supplies (including bananas) off Terceira in the Azores on 6 July, according to local news reports. Quite unusual manoeuvre. @saturnax1.bsky.social @covertshores.bsky.social @thelookout.bsky.social www.portugalresident.com/united-state...

As Ukraine marked Naval Forces Day, Russia’s Black Sea Fleet started the morning fending off a joint air and sea drone attack on its base in Novorossiysk. Early footage shows no major damage. Our team reviewed satellite imagery from the day before, here’s what we know🧵: