Excellent piece on UK gilt market from @tobyn.bsky.social

Delighted that my 2022 book on liberalism and public policy is on the LSE's Masters in Public Policy Reading List!

The success of the Asian “miracle” economies was driven less by markets alone & more by effective industrial policy institutions, according to new research by Fuad Hasanov, Reda Cherif & Gary Xie. Their new paper propose a “4As” framework for effective industrial policy institutions: bit.ly/48NDAeL

Why is this a surprise? The governance arrangements for this project is fundamentally flawed where HS2 ltd has zero skin in the game. www.ft.com/content/b8c9... Moreover, the government continues to ignore the NAO's criticism that Whitehall has a governance issue.

The EU is finally realising that trade between liberal and illiberal countries is fundamentally unstable - as it has always been. www.scmp.com/news/china/d...

At the outbreak of the Russia Ukraine War, the EU did far more trade with authoritarian regimes than the US by a significant margin (source of hydrocarbons matters) www.creditcapitaladvisory.com/2022/03/01/inflation-and-the-fragility-of-the-liberal-international-order/

Nick Crafts reminds us how freer trade (between countries with similar value systems) supports growth (20% higher income) and the +ve impact it had on UK GDP when it joined the EEC (between 8-10%)

UK government policy is based on the fallacy of capital shortage. There is an abundance of capital but a shortage of projects with appropriate risk return characteristics. www.ft.com/content/c372fe8d-57a6-473b-8c6e-67760b24b352?syn-25a6b1a6=1

Interesting comparison by Niall Ferguson between Trump and Nixon - but he overstates the notion of the closure of the Taiwan Strait www.youtube.com/watch?v=66RT... A quarantine is a far more likely option - which will pan out very differently in terms of commercial disruption.

Two men have been found guilty of spying for Hong Kong (China) - who actively targeted pro-democracy activists who had sought refuge in the UK www.ft.com/content/f478...

Spot on from Pierre Wunsch on why Europe has to embrace the demise of the Liberal International Order www.ft.com/content/1c25... “The world has changed, so we cannot keep doing the same thing and come up with the same answers again and again while they have to some extent failed in the past.” More

"Sullivan & Cromwell one of Wall Street’s most prestigious firms filed an emergency motion riddled with fabricated citations and other AI-generated errors. The mistakes were caught not by the firm’s own review process but by opposing counsel." www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/a...

The University of Oxford is advertising a Professorship of Economic History, which will be held in the Department of Economics in association with Nuffield College. Closing date 25 May 2026, interviews 26 June. my.corehr.com/pls/uoxrecru....

Fun piece from @soumayakeynes.ft.com. Worth noting that trade between liberal and illiberal countries is fundamentally unstable which models need to explicitly control for. More here in my European Legacy paper: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Boosting regional growth would require Reeves to accept that her rejection of self-funding public corporation debt is wrongheaded - and why the New Towns wont get built. @chriscurtis94.bsky.social www.bennettschool.cam.ac.uk/blog/new-tow...

A really good session, you can find it here www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/... Chair asks the right q: "How am I going to judge as chair of this committee whether the industrial strategy has delivered?" (from 16:15). Not sure we get a complete answer Also with @antoniabance.bsky.social

UK firms are good at taking innovative ideas and exploiting them commercially - despite what commentators write. www.ft.com/content/caf9...

FORE! A Russian businessman looked at buying a Lake District golf course that sits next to the rail line serving the UK's shipyard where the nuclear-power Aukus attacks submarines will be built. Then the FT started asking questions... www.ft.com/content/19a3...

“The likely result of LB’s acquisition of Venator’s UK plant will be a significant diminution in competition in both the UK and the EU as LB Group seeks to render UK and EU producers unable to invest in their businesses and remain viable” www.ft.com/content/3ff3... #illiberaltradepractices

Fascinating @financialtimes.com discussion with Amanda Podany on Mesopotamian debt relief. ft.com/content/0bd7... When I was researching my 2012 book on the credit cycle I ended up looking at the Manishtushu Obelisk (earlier than Hammurabi) to try and explain why the rates of interest on grain and

Today a Russian paper criticises the authorities over internet restrictions and for poor communication with citizens: “[It] causes the population to feel we are not respected, that strange games are being played with us.” Plus, an interview with Lenin's “spirit.” #ReadingRussia

Good piece from @marymcd.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/c2df... Exposure to illiquid assets also increases credit risk. As the output floor kicks in, banks will have to start charging riskier funds more for transactions due to the jump in RW.

Investors rediscovering credit risk is a thing! www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/outflows-leveraged-loan-funds-jump-investors-shun-credit-risk-2026-04-10/

Credit default swaps now being traded against private credit funds run by Blackstone, Apollo and Ares. www.ft.com/content/5407...

HMT is right not to loosen the fiscal rules for increased defence spending. But HMT IS fiscally irresponsible to stop self-funding infrastructure projects via public corporation debt proceeding - clinging on to its PPP approach which damages the public finances. @jamesmurrayldn.bsky.social

UK hit with big IMF growth downgrade as Iran war fuels inflation www.reuters.com/business/uk-...

A focus on RN is the "British way of War" as per Andrew Lambert following Julian Corbett.

Good @financialtimes.com piece from @elerianm.bsky.social on the volatility of gilts. www.ft.com/content/4b25... There are an additional two areas of policy that have exacerbated this considerably. 1) The lack of a public corporation debt market means that bulk annuity insurers are taking leveraged

Bloomberg: "China Moves to Ban Sulfuric Acid Exports as Iran War Hits Supply" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Why the government’s New Towns strategy is likely to fail henrytapper.com/2026/04/10/w... Rather than doing what has worked well elsewhere, and in the UK in the past, the Government’s approach will struggle to scale, place greater pressure on the public finances and keep gilts volatile

Why the Government’s New Towns strategy is likely to fail. @henrytapper.bsky.social @marymcd.bsky.social @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social @eddavey.libdems.org.uk @darrenpjones.bsky.social @julesbirch.bsky.social @andrewcities.bsky.social

Why the Government’s New Towns strategy is likely to fail @matthewpennycookmp.bsky.social @liambyrnemp.bsky.social @allymcgovern.bsky.social @chriscurtis94.bsky.social @guardianheather.bsky.social @jenwilliamsft.bsky.social @greenmirandahere.bsky.social @duncanrobinson.bsky.social

My @bennettinstitute.cam.ac.uk piece on why the Government’s New Towns strategy is likely to fail. bennettschool.cam.ac.uk/blog/new-tow... There are 3 options to fund & finance them. 1) Raise more debt from gilts and allocate as grants. There is no extra fiscal headroom & breaches best practice

As the UK govt advances its New Towns agenda, @thomasaubreycca.bsky.social argues current funding plans are ill-equipped to deliver infrastructure at scale. He calls for reviving long-term, bond-based financing to unlock large-scale housing & growth without straining public finances. bit.ly/41Y8VHu

EXCLUSIVE: @thehousemag.bsky.social has obtained the confidential government report which delayed West Yorkshire's planned tram network. It warned the scheme was working to "unrealistic milestones" and there was a "high" risk of public money being wasted: www.politicshome.com/news/article...

🧵on Private Credit @theeconomistnews.bsky.social piece ignores the fact that PC's risk systems are not structured to deal with a jump in the default correlation www.economist.com/briefing/2026/04/01/a-guide-to-the-private-credit-crisis When things start to look dicey, spreads widen on all loans and

"Wealthy individuals had been promised access to higher-yielding investments in exchange for limited liquidity" www.ft.com/content/f432... Portfolio managers think they can sell before the shit hits the fan, but that doesn't work in illiquid markets #creditriskmanagment

Initial meetings “will allow participants to survey recent market events, emerging risks, risk management practices and outlooks for the sector” www.ft.com/content/09f4... They will be shocked when they find out what typical "risk management" practices are.

Great discussion today with the LSE MSc in Public Policy students on the failings of the Labour government's infrastructure policy and how a shift towards self-funded public corporation vehicles would drive growth while improving the public finances.

Baroness Sharon Bowles, who led the opposition in the upper house, said... We think any mandation is bad news. Ministers should not be overriding trustees. It is anti-competitive and economically illiterate. www.ft.com/content/ee6c...

Ten-year gilt yield jumping to 5% highlights the flaw at the heart of the Chancellor's investment strategy using gilts to finance capital investment. www.ft.com/content/1e77... Most advanced economies use self-funded public corporation debt for infrastructure. The UK is an outlier. But the UK used

Baroness Sharon Bowles...told the Lords on Thursday that her objection to the move towards “mandation” was “one of principle, why should the government override trustees?”, adding that the record of intervention was “not good” www.ft.com/content/33086f14-194a-4ff0-90f6-ef60c00df578?syn-25a6b1a6=1

Really looking forward to speaking tomorrow at the Festival of Flourishing Regions in Bristol on how regions can fund and finance large-scale infrastructure without having to depend on government expenditure. futureswest.co.uk/festival-flourishing-regions/

📣 Registrations for ESCoE's 2026 conference on economic measurement are now open! The conference is organised in partnership with the ONS and will take place on 19-21 May 2026 at @kingsbschool.bsky.social @kingscollegelondon.bsky.social Register for your free ticket by 5 May: tinyurl.com/rzrfx4se

Reality Check: The OxCam corridor needs about £10bn in infrastructure investment. Reeves has doubled funding to £800m. www.ft.com/content/556a339f-61ef-4204-b032-bda3cb4b8935?syn-25a6b1a6=1

Report calls for greater scrutiny of public investment programmes such as the British Business Bank and the National Wealth Fund. Policymakers should ensure these initiatives address genuine market gaps rather than subsidising investments that would have occurred anyway. www.ipe.com/news/mandati...

Powers to acquire land without paying excessive compensation are ALREADY on the statute book from LURA 2023. Labour has not used them because the issue is about funding & financing, and Labour’s approach to use PPP for infrastructure means they cannot be used. www.ft.com/content/3c4e...

The UK government's assumption that pension funds should invest more in private markets carries risks! PE returns are now lower than govt bonds due to interest rate jump www.ft.com/content/1dcd44b2-e08c-4d95-99b1-065c84852528

The outlook for reducing dependency on the Middle East for fertilizer will shift dramatically in the next few years as projects developed by UK listed firm Atome, financed by the IDB, come on line. idbinvest.org/en/news-medi...

My latest @bennettschool.cam.ac.uk blog: UK private sector productivity growth is finally in positive territory driven by Financial Services. The Insurance sector has huge potential to drive growth in new markets, but Manufacturing continues to decline. www.bennettschool.cam.ac.uk/blog/product...