OBR says “pre-measures” forecast in autumn 2024 was too high bcs it did not fully anticipate impact of Trump tariffs and could not anticipate the growth-reducing Jaguar Land Rover shutdown. It did not blame Reeves's NI increase. (£) www.thetimes.com/business/eco... By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social

Another Sunday Times piece from me: The new Danish government is cutting income tax, corporation tax and some VAT rates. How come it can afford to do so when U.K. taxes are only going up? If cheery Denmark can cut taxes, why can’t the UK? www.thetimes.com/article/33e2...

Thank you

Fantastic article by @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social about BRIC countries. Remember when this was the 'hot topic' in Economics & then the sequel - MINT. Interesting to see Indonesia is the only MINT mentioned here. Is a hit ratio of 3 out of 7 good? Shows difficulty of predicting winners. #EconSky

My Sunday Times piece: Decades on from the original BRICs analysis, Brazil and Russia have fallen by the wayside but China and India will be in the world’s big three by mid-century. And Indonesia’s rising fast How the G7 will look by 2050 — and what it means for us www.thetimes.com/article/17c0...

My Sunday Times piece: Decades on from the original BRICs analysis, Brazil and Russia have fallen by the wayside but China and India will be in the world’s big three by mid-century. And Indonesia’s rising fast How the G7 will look by 2050 — and what it means for us www.thetimes.com/article/17c0...

Inactivity rate for 50–64 age group is more than 25%. Nearly 3.4mn are classified as economically inactive. The economically inactive in this age group account for more than 37% of the 9.1mn UK total for inactive people aged 16–64. (£) www.thetimes.com/business/eco... By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social

My Times piece: We should worry about Neets, and high levels of youth unemployment and inactivity. But we should not forget about the over-50s, many of whom who are locked out of the job market: Older workers may be overlooked solution to inactivity crisis www.thetimes.com/article/79a8...

My Times piece: We should worry about Neets, and high levels of youth unemployment and inactivity. But we should not forget about the over-50s, many of whom who are locked out of the job market: Older workers may be overlooked solution to inactivity crisis www.thetimes.com/article/79a8...

Describing Brexit damage is not difficult. Leaving the EU has hit business investment, foreign direct investment, growth and trade, and helped lock in low productivity and weak growth in prosperity. (£) www.thetimes.com/business/eco... By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social

My Sunday Times piece: As the referendum anniversary approaches, the economic and political damage from Brexit is very clear, but reversing it by rejoining looks as politically difficult as it has ever been: Ten years on from Brexit, where do the UK and EU go next? www.thetimes.com/article/8390...

My Sunday Times piece: As the referendum anniversary approaches, the economic and political damage from Brexit is very clear, but reversing it by rejoining looks as politically difficult as it has ever been: Ten years on from Brexit, where do the UK and EU go next? www.thetimes.com/article/8390...

Fascinating article by @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social & would be interesting to see the productivity of all the firms McKinsey are involved with & McKinsey themselves. In our Edith Penrose episode we spoke about firms removing management with years of industry knowledge for MBA guys - linked to RBV.

My Times piece: Amid a debate on whether U.K. productivity is finally improving, I focus on new research showing that a significant part of the productivity problem is down to poor management: Is bad management to blame for UK’s productivity problem? www.thetimes.com/article/947d...

My Times piece: Amid a debate on whether U.K. productivity is finally improving, I focus on new research showing that a significant part of the productivity problem is down to poor management: Is bad management to blame for UK’s productivity problem? www.thetimes.com/article/947d...

My Sunday Times piece: Statistics and surveys for housebuilding and construction are very gloomy but visiting the UK’s big real estate event last week, the mood was cautiously optimistic: The UK economy will struggle if the builders don’t start building www.thetimes.com/article/5141...

He did talk about training more construction workers but I didn’t quote that bit. It’s not Labour’s immigration policy but Brexit which is the problem with construction worker supply:

My Sunday Times piece: Statistics and surveys for housebuilding and construction are very gloomy but visiting the UK’s big real estate event last week, the mood was cautiously optimistic: The UK economy will struggle if the builders don’t start building www.thetimes.com/article/5141...

For GDP growth to make discernible difference to households & businesses, it must be strong: 1 or 1.5%pa does not cut it. Growth has averaged just 1.6%pa a year since 2010 and 1.4%pa since 2016 (£) www.thetimes.com/business/eco... Interesting point by @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social about 'felt growth'

Today’s column

My Times piece: The UK economy defied IMF growth downgrades in 2024 and 2025 and is on course to so again this year. But with so many economic worries around, does anybody really notice? UK may again beat IMF forecast — but will it be enough for Labour? www.thetimes.com/article/1903...

My Times piece: The UK economy defied IMF growth downgrades in 2024 and 2025 and is on course to so again this year. But with so many economic worries around, does anybody really notice? UK may again beat IMF forecast — but will it be enough for Labour? www.thetimes.com/article/1903...

Thanks, Jonathan

"Politicians promising change that will restore past glories are doomed to disappoint." Very good piece by @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social on how the fetishisation of "manufacturing" [my words not his] distorts our political economy.. www.thetimes.com/article/569d...

All this is true & good piece from @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social but if you want to get the best view you need sub-regional analysis. Look at the economic difference *within* regions which can be even more startling...and revealing of the cause of our political problems.

Poorest region, by GDP per head, was North East, 28% below national ave, followed by Wales, 26% below. It will not have escaped your attention that these were places where the political earthquakes on May 7 were most intense. (£) www.thetimes.com/business/eco... By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social

My Sunday Times column: Britain’s industrial decline has long shaped the country’s economic geography. It keeps reshaping our political geography too, because no politician has an answer to it: Voters cried out for help. Know-how, not nostalgia, can save them www.thetimes.com/article/569d...

Thank you

Interesting article by @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social about how structural issues have created the problems we have now. It is the case we can't go backwards but nostalgia has taken over the political sphere and this is a rocky road to go down. #EconSky

Another really interesting article by David Smith. Despite the promises of various political parties, nostalgia is not the solution to the industrial decline… those days are gone and there's a need to retrain & redirect the resources to alternative production/service provision.

My Sunday Times column: Britain’s industrial decline has long shaped the country’s economic geography. It keeps reshaping our political geography too, because no politician has an answer to it: Voters cried out for help. Know-how, not nostalgia, can save them www.thetimes.com/article/569d...

A Sunday Times piece on the economics of Angela Rayner, Andy Burnham and other ideas to shape Labour economic policy. Convincing voters and markets is a challenge: Why big business fears ‘Raynernomics’ — and Andy Burnham www.thetimes.com/article/5964... shareToken=25e41fa89105d25c145641b8aa861478

The gilt market has been telling us, among other things, that Labour alternatives to Starmer and Reeves would be very risky, and that they are seen as the safest pairs of hands in the party. (£) www.thetimes.com/business/eco... By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social

Pathetic. And further demonstrating that you don’t understand any of this.

Read the piece

No. A clear indication that you don’t understand the point that is being made.

My Sunday Times piece: The gilt market has calmed a little because despite terrible Labour losses the PM is still there. But markets are on high alert for another lurch into political instability: The bond vigilantes are back, and a Starmer coup would cost us all www.thetimes.com/article/1bc4...

Thanks, Jonathan

Last year @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social noted the relative strength of household finances and predicted the UK economy might outperform expectations as a result. Seems he was right - but of course Trump's war means we may not feel the benefits for long. www.thetimes.com/business/eco...

My Times piece: The UK economy appears to have done OK in April, in fact better than in March, in spite of the Iran war. Is it resilience or just the delayed impact so far of the energy shock? Economy is holding up in face of energy shock — what’s going on? www.thetimes.com/article/8d10...

My Times piece: The UK economy appears to have done OK in April, in fact better than in March, in spite of the Iran war. Is it resilience or just the delayed impact so far of the energy shock? Economy is holding up in face of energy shock — what’s going on? www.thetimes.com/article/8d10...

My Sunday Times piece: Above-target inflation looms, eroding the reputation of the independent Bank of England. A new book co-written by Charles Goodhart highlights the risks to that independence: Is the bell tolling for independent central banking in Britain? www.thetimes.com/article/622c...

My Sunday Times piece: Above-target inflation looms, eroding the reputation of the independent Bank of England. A new book co-written by Charles Goodhart highlights the risks to that independence: Is the bell tolling for independent central banking in Britain? www.thetimes.com/article/622c...

My Times piece: A sharp rise in U.K. inflation expectations will worry the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee and could see some votes for a hike in interest rates this week: Inflation expectations have jumped — bad news for the Bank of England www.thetimes.com/article/39fc...

My Times piece: A sharp rise in U.K. inflation expectations will worry the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee and could see some votes for a hike in interest rates this week: Inflation expectations have jumped — bad news for the Bank of England www.thetimes.com/article/39fc...

Thank you

‘Exam gold’ here for all economists students going into exams in a few weeks

My Sunday Times piece: Last week saw a surprise fall in unemployment, partly because of a rise in economic inactivity. But the challenge will be to stop the jobless total rising in the wake of the energy shock A fall in unemployment — but can it possibly last? www.thetimes.com/article/e8e7...

My Sunday Times piece: Last week saw a surprise fall in unemployment, partly because of a rise in economic inactivity. But the challenge will be to stop the jobless total rising in the wake of the energy shock A fall in unemployment — but can it possibly last? www.thetimes.com/article/e8e7...

(£) www.thetimes.com/business/eco... By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social There are reasons to support a cut in VAT for hospitality, and some against, but we can't afford it anyway.