David Smith
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
đ€ 1960
đ„ 12
đ 167
Economics Editor, The Sunday Times.
reposted by
David Smith
EconomicsInTen
2 days ago
Interesting article as always from
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
but agree with
@busecon.bsky.social
that housing should have been mentioned for young professionals. Generally the UK economy seems to be a hostile environment for young graduates...no surprise they would look elsewhere.
add a skeleton here at some point
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reposted by
David Smith
Economics Teacher
2 days ago
Need to mention the broken housing market in the UK, and with regards to teaching, which needed mentioning in the article, and the government seem absolutely oblivious to, is that many young teachers leave the UK and teach in the UAE/Qatar/Saudi because of free accommodation.
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My Sunday Times piece: In the 1960s we worried about the âbrain drainâ of talent. Now we are worried again about the outflow of talent, together with an exodus of the wealthy leaving because of UK taxes: Why the young and rich are leaving Britain
www.thetimes.com/article/439c...
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Why the young and rich are leaving Britain
Brexit began the outflow of millionaires and Labourâs tax changes for non-doms accelerated it, but young people are also seeking brighter horizons abroad
https://www.thetimes.com/article/439cb3d7-4e22-4cf3-9e8c-9b8174b61e61?shareToken=66baef7b99e59c686a5778c7e1f278c4
2 days ago
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reposted by
David Smith
John Peters
6 days ago
Inflation, interest rates, government debt, growth, all provide reasons to be cheerful-ish says
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
'after all the missteps and unpopular policies, things could be about to start coming right.' (ÂŁ)
www.thetimes.com/business/eco...
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In fiscal terms, itâs strange to be thinking of replacing Starmer
While the economy is a long way from being fixed the outlook is still bright, and a new prime minister or chancellor could mean more pain for taxpayers
https://www.thetimes.com/business/economics/article/in-fiscal-terms-its-strange-to-be-thinking-of-replacing-starmer-ql0wp5cz2
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My Times piece: There may be many political reasons for replacing Keir Starmer but to think of doing so when the economic outlook appears to be improving seems strange: In fiscal terms, itâs strange to be thinking of replacing Starmer
www.thetimes.com/article/feb4...
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In fiscal terms, itâs strange to be thinking of replacing Starmer
While the economy is a long way from being fixed the outlook is still bright, and a new prime minister or chancellor could mean more pain for taxpayers
https://www.thetimes.com/article/feb4351c-fbfe-4fc5-8932-eb86a07bc180?shareToken=ea2ef7db601411ad236a04ed31f0c545
7 days ago
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reposted by
David Smith
John Peters
8 days ago
Is AI going to destroy not just some jobs but all but a tiny number of them, resulting in mass unemployment? A large degree of scepticism is in order, and not just because of the lump of labour fallacy. (ÂŁ)
www.thetimes.com/business/eco...
By
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
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We canât afford a universal basic income â and donât need it
If AI massacres jobs, the state will never find ÂŁ1.5 trillion a year to keep us going. Targeted help would be far more sensible
https://www.thetimes.com/business/economics/article/universal-basic-income-kngtfx6j0
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reposted by
David Smith
Usagi
9 days ago
I thought this piece by
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
was excellent in its careful dissection of the risks associated with relying on the impractical vision of a UBI to prop up human workforces displaced by AI.
www.thetimes.com/article/70cd...
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We canât afford a universal basic income â and donât need it
If AI massacres jobs, the state will never find ÂŁ1.5 trillion a year to keep us going. Targeted help would be far more sensible
https://www.thetimes.com/article/70cd0bb6-7110-4835-aff6-c3e21b238ded?shareToken=74ec5c2872f2dcad4488d48d6a9cefa5
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reposted by
David Smith
My Sunday Times piece: The idea that we will need a universal basic income because of all the jobs that will be displaced by AI is gaining traction, but it is wrong on several counts: We canât afford a universal basic income â and donât need it
www.thetimes.com/article/70cd...
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We canât afford a universal basic income â and donât need it
If AI massacres jobs, the state will never find ÂŁ1.5 trillion a year to keep us going. Targeted help would be far more sensible
https://www.thetimes.com/article/70cd0bb6-7110-4835-aff6-c3e21b238ded?shareToken=587923dd21220f2979000f1a1ed6d6b7
9 days ago
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My Sunday Times piece: The idea that we will need a universal basic income because of all the jobs that will be displaced by AI is gaining traction, but it is wrong on several counts: We canât afford a universal basic income â and donât need it
www.thetimes.com/article/70cd...
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We canât afford a universal basic income â and donât need it
If AI massacres jobs, the state will never find ÂŁ1.5 trillion a year to keep us going. Targeted help would be far more sensible
https://www.thetimes.com/article/70cd0bb6-7110-4835-aff6-c3e21b238ded?shareToken=587923dd21220f2979000f1a1ed6d6b7
9 days ago
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Once, twice or three times? No, not Lionel Richie, but my Times column on how much the Bank of England is likely to cut interest rates this year after this weekâs pause: Bank will hold rates, but there will be more cuts this year
www.thetimes.com/article/3a73...
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Bank will hold rates, but there will be more cuts this year
Borrowers will certainly be disappointed this time, and key new economic forecasts will be watched for clues about how many further reductions there could be
https://www.thetimes.com/article/3a73c3f0-41f9-48c2-a862-ec864805d639?shareToken=1045d32ae5e3edcb852901f970fea12e
13 days ago
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My Times piece: Thereâs little chance of a rate cut this week, but the Bank of England should provide some clues on how much it is likely to reduce rates later this year: Bank will hold rates, but there will be more cuts this year
www.thetimes.com/article/3a73...
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Bank will hold rates, but there will be more cuts this year
Borrowers will certainly be disappointed this time, and key new economic forecasts will be watched for clues about how many further reductions there could be
https://www.thetimes.com/article/3a73c3f0-41f9-48c2-a862-ec864805d639?shareToken=fe57ad11dc3d8085dae119160fa49249
13 days ago
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reposted by
David Smith
Hetan Shah
15 days ago
In his Times column
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
draws on our two recent papers on the future of the dollar Pound sterling is flexing its muscles against the sickly US dollar
www.thetimes.com/article/3e68...
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reposted by
David Smith
John Peters
16 days ago
Average value against a basket of currencies dropped last week to 13% below 01/2025. That should be enough even for a devaluer like the current POTUS. Further USD instability has the capacity to do significant financial damage (ÂŁ)
www.thetimes.com/business/eco...
By
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
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Pound sterling is flexing its muscles against the sickly US dollar
The pound has never fully recovered from Brexit so it is nice to see it gaining ground on the greenback â unless the price is global financial instability
https://www.thetimes.com/business/economics/article/pound-sterling-us-dollar-price-x998ws3fq
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reposted by
David Smith
My Sunday Times piece: Fridayâs announcement of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chairman calmed the dollar, but itâs weakness is entrenched, perhaps worryingly, and the pound is benefiting: Pound sterling is flexing its muscles against the sickly US dollar
www.thetimes.com/article/3e68...
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Pound sterling is flexing its muscles against the sickly US dollar
The pound has never fully recovered from Brexit so it is nice to see it gaining ground on the greenback â unless the price is global financial instability
https://www.thetimes.com/article/3e684055-3ad8-4902-a1ac-ec40792706ab?shareToken=fa28cba46897262eec713fa916026bf3
16 days ago
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My Sunday Times piece: Fridayâs announcement of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chairman calmed the dollar, but itâs weakness is entrenched, perhaps worryingly, and the pound is benefiting: Pound sterling is flexing its muscles against the sickly US dollar
www.thetimes.com/article/3e68...
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Pound sterling is flexing its muscles against the sickly US dollar
The pound has never fully recovered from Brexit so it is nice to see it gaining ground on the greenback â unless the price is global financial instability
https://www.thetimes.com/article/3e684055-3ad8-4902-a1ac-ec40792706ab?shareToken=fa28cba46897262eec713fa916026bf3
16 days ago
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Thanks. Yes I do mention that and it is a concern.
add a skeleton here at some point
20 days ago
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Thank you
add a skeleton here at some point
20 days ago
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reposted by
David Smith
Rick
20 days ago
Another good âun here from @dsmitheconomics. Labour killed its own post-election bounce with doom-and-gloom warnings.
add a skeleton here at some point
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reposted by
David Smith
My Times piece: The UK economy appears to have got off to a strong start this year, as in 2024 and 2025. The question is whether it can last or, as then, it will be killed off by budget speculation: Reeves faces challenge of maintaining the good start to 2026
www.thetimes.com/article/b7d4...
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Reeves faces challenge of maintaining the good start to 2026
The UK economy appears to be going gangbusters as we reach the end of January â letâs hope upcoming data confirms that and the chancellor doesnât mess things up
https://www.thetimes.com/article/b7d4e8ea-91fb-40d9-87e2-f8915d0ee17c?shareToken=1bf0d870daf257985ddab10b4de7f281
21 days ago
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My Times piece: The UK economy appears to have got off to a strong start this year, as in 2024 and 2025. The question is whether it can last or, as then, it will be killed off by budget speculation: Reeves faces challenge of maintaining the good start to 2026
www.thetimes.com/article/b7d4...
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Reeves faces challenge of maintaining the good start to 2026
The UK economy appears to be going gangbusters as we reach the end of January â letâs hope upcoming data confirms that and the chancellor doesnât mess things up
https://www.thetimes.com/article/b7d4e8ea-91fb-40d9-87e2-f8915d0ee17c?shareToken=1bf0d870daf257985ddab10b4de7f281
21 days ago
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reposted by
David Smith
My Sunday Times piece resurrects my annual forecasting league table. Forecasters were a bit too downbeat on growth last year but over-optimistic on both inflation and government borrowing: How the UK economy fared in 2025 â a mixed year, also for forecasters
www.thetimes.com/article/ab72...
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How the UK economy fared in 2025 â a mixed year, also for forecasters
Growth in 2025 was slightly better than expected and interest rates bang-on. But inflation and unemployment were worse than envisaged, and borrowing way worse
https://www.thetimes.com/article/ab72311c-5187-4dbe-8601-bb35f55c7def?shareToken=59b3fd18482e305683f78b5267ffd3ff
23 days ago
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My Sunday Times piece resurrects my annual forecasting league table. Forecasters were a bit too downbeat on growth last year but over-optimistic on both inflation and government borrowing: How the UK economy fared in 2025 â a mixed year, also for forecasters
www.thetimes.com/article/ab72...
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How the UK economy fared in 2025 â a mixed year, also for forecasters
Growth in 2025 was slightly better than expected and interest rates bang-on. But inflation and unemployment were worse than envisaged, and borrowing way worse
https://www.thetimes.com/article/ab72311c-5187-4dbe-8601-bb35f55c7def?shareToken=59b3fd18482e305683f78b5267ffd3ff
23 days ago
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reposted by
David Smith
My Times piece: Donald Trump and his policies may be unhinged but America is enjoying a productivity revival which we would give our eye teeth for. Can we have what they are having? Stonking US productivity revival leaves UK green with envy
www.thetimes.com/article/7c84...
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Stonking US productivity revival leaves UK green with envy
Economic growth is roaring ahead on the other side of the Atlantic, but where America leads Britain follows â hopefully
https://www.thetimes.com/article/7c84096e-b7be-4d56-a507-ded2d4c633ca?shareToken=d97839c75714dce24523f33f4cd7649d
28 days ago
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My Times piece: Donald Trump and his policies may be unhinged but America is enjoying a productivity revival which we would give our eye teeth for. Can we have what they are having? Stonking US productivity revival leaves UK green with envy
www.thetimes.com/article/7c84...
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Stonking US productivity revival leaves UK green with envy
Economic growth is roaring ahead on the other side of the Atlantic, but where America leads Britain follows â hopefully
https://www.thetimes.com/article/7c84096e-b7be-4d56-a507-ded2d4c633ca?shareToken=d97839c75714dce24523f33f4cd7649d
28 days ago
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reposted by
David Smith
EconomicsInTen
30 days ago
Interesting column as always from
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
but surely the most important data is the 40% of folk who don't trust anyone to run the economy! Looking forward to the league table though...
#EconSky
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reposted by
David Smith
My Sunday Times piece: Deserting a sinking ship? Perhaps not. As senior figures leave the Tories, the partyâs lead on who voters trust most to run the economy has risen to a four-year high: Tory economic reputation is reviving, as Labour struggles persist
www.thetimes.com/article/aa0a...
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Tory economic reputation is reviving, as Labour struggles persist
Polling shows that Britons have more faith in the economic competence of the Conservatives â but that is more a verdict on Rachel Reeves
https://www.thetimes.com/article/aa0a52e2-ec86-401f-8c6e-243c322b3420?shareToken=28d96cb78c141f6e0c02694fcd9258b3
about 1 month ago
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My Sunday Times piece: Deserting a sinking ship? Perhaps not. As senior figures leave the Tories, the partyâs lead on who voters trust most to run the economy has risen to a four-year high: Tory economic reputation is reviving, as Labour struggles persist
www.thetimes.com/article/aa0a...
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Tory economic reputation is reviving, as Labour struggles persist
Polling shows that Britons have more faith in the economic competence of the Conservatives â but that is more a verdict on Rachel Reeves
https://www.thetimes.com/article/aa0a52e2-ec86-401f-8c6e-243c322b3420?shareToken=28d96cb78c141f6e0c02694fcd9258b3
about 1 month ago
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reposted by
David Smith
My Times piece: The OBR is relying on a big increase in self-assessment tax receipts this month to keep its forecast of a drop in borrowing this year on track. But will it happen? Self-assessment windfall for taxman may rescue Rachel Reeves
www.thetimes.com/article/f51c...
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Self-assessment windfall for taxman may rescue Rachel Reeves
The OBR expects a big rise in income tax and capital gains receipts, which would be a crucial advantage if public borrowing targets are to be met
https://www.thetimes.com/article/f51c3c40-43e7-411d-94c3-f7eb206aa641?shareToken=2c7c239714c7c062378200254f64c6ab
about 1 month ago
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My Times piece: The OBR is relying on a big increase in self-assessment tax receipts this month to keep its forecast of a drop in borrowing this year on track. But will it happen? Self-assessment windfall for taxman may rescue Rachel Reeves
www.thetimes.com/article/f51c...
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Self-assessment windfall for taxman may rescue Rachel Reeves
The OBR expects a big rise in income tax and capital gains receipts, which would be a crucial advantage if public borrowing targets are to be met
https://www.thetimes.com/article/f51c3c40-43e7-411d-94c3-f7eb206aa641?shareToken=2c7c239714c7c062378200254f64c6ab
about 1 month ago
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reposted by
David Smith
John Peters
about 1 month ago
Low inflation does matter. The ideal combination would be falling inflation and stronger growth. It could happen, but evidence is that we are still waiting for the mythical âgrowth fairyâ to wave her magic wand. (ÂŁ)
www.thetimes.com/business/eco...
By
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
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The UK will turn a corner on inflation, but not on growth
Was Keir Starmer right to talk up our prospects in 2026? While the rate of price rises will get close to the 2% target, another holy grail remains elusive
https://www.thetimes.com/business/economics/article/the-uk-will-turn-a-corner-on-inflation-but-not-on-growth-hnzvv5t5p
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reposted by
David Smith
My Sunday Times piece: The prime minister says this will be the year the UK turns the corner. It may do on inflation, which is set to fall close to the 2% target, but stronger growth will remain elusive: The UK will turn a corner on inflation, but not on growth
www.thetimes.com/article/5fd0...
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The UK will turn a corner on inflation, but not on growth
Was Keir Starmer right to talk up our prospects in 2026? While the rate of price rises will get close to the 2% target, another holy grail remains elusive
https://www.thetimes.com/article/5fd0f592-e679-4308-ac24-416a57b9ea19?shareToken=9e856133c986d39328f9abb16ad7f85c
about 1 month ago
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My Sunday Times piece: The prime minister says this will be the year the UK turns the corner. It may do on inflation, which is set to fall close to the 2% target, but stronger growth will remain elusive: The UK will turn a corner on inflation, but not on growth
www.thetimes.com/article/5fd0...
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The UK will turn a corner on inflation, but not on growth
Was Keir Starmer right to talk up our prospects in 2026? While the rate of price rises will get close to the 2% target, another holy grail remains elusive
https://www.thetimes.com/article/5fd0f592-e679-4308-ac24-416a57b9ea19?shareToken=9e856133c986d39328f9abb16ad7f85c
about 1 month ago
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reposted by
David Smith
My Times piece: History tells us that when growth disappoints, we look to Europe. But it is not as easy or straightforward now as it was half a century ago: Europe solved our growth problem once. Could it do so again?
www.thetimes.com/article/1c09...
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Europe solved our growth problem once. Could it do so again?
Almost ten years after the Brexit referendum, closer economic relations with the EU are certainly worth cultivating. But donât expect them to be a panacea
https://www.thetimes.com/article/1c09371e-ad95-4e79-9e1e-fae3783fffe4?shareToken=729a5544e3848f936fb6cd5f07b502c8
about 1 month ago
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My Times piece: History tells us that when growth disappoints, we look to Europe. But it is not as easy or straightforward now as it was half a century ago: Europe solved our growth problem once. Could it do so again?
www.thetimes.com/article/1c09...
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Europe solved our growth problem once. Could it do so again?
Almost ten years after the Brexit referendum, closer economic relations with the EU are certainly worth cultivating. But donât expect them to be a panacea
https://www.thetimes.com/article/1c09371e-ad95-4e79-9e1e-fae3783fffe4?shareToken=729a5544e3848f936fb6cd5f07b502c8
about 1 month ago
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Thank you
add a skeleton here at some point
about 1 month ago
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reposted by
David Smith
EconomicsInTen
about 1 month ago
Great explainer by
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
on the some of the key indicators/objectives in economics. This is economics for everyone, which we obviously love.
#EconSky
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Another piece from me, in the Sunday Times magazine, on what to look at and whatâs important, in trying to work out whatâs happening in the economy: The expertâs guide to understanding the economy
www.thetimes.com/article/7eed...
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The expertâs guide to understanding the economy
Inflation, deficits, quantitative easing⊠the Sunday Times economics editor explains exactly what they are, and why they matter
https://www.thetimes.com/article/7eed9d54-b896-4a80-9fd2-a8915955bbc4?shareToken=ea3804980a01f2cbf0f12dee8050fb53
about 1 month ago
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reposted by
David Smith
My Sunday Times piece: We face another mediocre year for growth unless consumers rein in some of their caution and appetite for saving, and increase spending significantly: More of the same for the UK economy â unless we start spending
www.thetimes.com/article/06b4...
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More of the same for the UK economy â unless we start spending
The growth expected this year wonât feel much like growth at all. Could hard-pressed consumers come to the rescue by somehow loosening the purse strings?
https://www.thetimes.com/article/06b46a96-7a6c-465d-9510-afc154669169?shareToken=345d05a30f31ea558362f1fd2fc7cd2e
about 1 month ago
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My Sunday Times piece: We face another mediocre year for growth unless consumers rein in some of their caution and appetite for saving, and increase spending significantly: More of the same for the UK economy â unless we start spending
www.thetimes.com/article/06b4...
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More of the same for the UK economy â unless we start spending
The growth expected this year wonât feel much like growth at all. Could hard-pressed consumers come to the rescue by somehow loosening the purse strings?
https://www.thetimes.com/article/06b46a96-7a6c-465d-9510-afc154669169?shareToken=345d05a30f31ea558362f1fd2fc7cd2e
about 1 month ago
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reposted by
David Smith
Rick
about 2 months ago
As my mum used to say (eyes rolling): âWell you donât want much, do you?â
add a skeleton here at some point
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reposted by
David Smith
My Sunday Times piece, in which I reflect on an economy which was good on parts, but not that many parts, because it was mainly disappointing: A year in which the bad easily outweighed the good
www.thetimes.com/article/1dca...
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A year in which the bad easily outweighed the good
The UK economy experienced a lopsided 2025. Growth forecasts for the coming year have been revised lower after a 0.7 per cent first-quarter GDP rise
https://www.thetimes.com/article/1dcae80e-2d8a-4aa9-80fe-9e5b49665379?shareToken=6dbd57fad8701353f4972f0563a6ec72
about 2 months ago
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reposted by
David Smith
EconomicsInTen
about 2 months ago
Good article from
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
that reads like a school report for the economy. Could do better it seems!
#EconSky
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My Sunday Times piece, in which I reflect on an economy which was good on parts, but not that many parts, because it was mainly disappointing: A year in which the bad easily outweighed the good
www.thetimes.com/article/1dca...
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A year in which the bad easily outweighed the good
The UK economy experienced a lopsided 2025. Growth forecasts for the coming year have been revised lower after a 0.7 per cent first-quarter GDP rise
https://www.thetimes.com/article/1dcae80e-2d8a-4aa9-80fe-9e5b49665379?shareToken=6dbd57fad8701353f4972f0563a6ec72
about 2 months ago
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David Smith
My Times piece: If the three wise men have any gifts for the UK economy, a sustained productivity revival, low and stable inflation, and stability for the public finances would be very welcome: What do you get the troubled UK economy for Christmas?
www.thetimes.com/article/76ef...
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What do you get the troubled UK economy for Christmas?
After a tough year made worse by poor management, Iâm wishing for three gifts that would give the nationâs finances a much-needed fillip
https://www.thetimes.com/article/76ef4b41-0a3a-4d54-a69a-af2cc49d8cd2?shareToken=62e3d45882fb78f65f20622e4b07464f
about 2 months ago
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My Times piece: If the three wise men have any gifts for the UK economy, a sustained productivity revival, low and stable inflation, and stability for the public finances would be very welcome: What do you get the troubled UK economy for Christmas?
www.thetimes.com/article/76ef...
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What do you get the troubled UK economy for Christmas?
After a tough year made worse by poor management, Iâm wishing for three gifts that would give the nationâs finances a much-needed fillip
https://www.thetimes.com/article/76ef4b41-0a3a-4d54-a69a-af2cc49d8cd2?shareToken=62e3d45882fb78f65f20622e4b07464f
about 2 months ago
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Thank you. Quiz answers by email please, which is at the end of the column.
add a skeleton here at some point
about 2 months ago
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David Smith
EconomicsInTen
about 2 months ago
Another interesting column by
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
about fiscal rules but this week, it comes with a quiz for students to answer!! Why not get involved? How do they send you answers David? And Merry Christmas btw! đ đ€¶
add a skeleton here at some point
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David Smith
My Sunday Times piece: This has been a pretty disastrous year for fiscal policy, not least because of the governmentâs flawed fiscal rules, which are crying out to be reformed: Reeves has bought herself time to write smarter fiscal rules
www.thetimes.com/article/2659...
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Reeves has bought herself time to write smarter fiscal rules
The chancellorâs self-imposed restrictions are not good enough and other countries have better models. The moment is right for change
https://www.thetimes.com/article/2659d8c6-9eb1-44b0-872b-0d36186ceed7?shareToken=1a08130662840d9b536cfbc08beb674d
about 2 months ago
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My Sunday Times piece: This has been a pretty disastrous year for fiscal policy, not least because of the governmentâs flawed fiscal rules, which are crying out to be reformed: Reeves has bought herself time to write smarter fiscal rules
www.thetimes.com/article/2659...
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Reeves has bought herself time to write smarter fiscal rules
The chancellorâs self-imposed restrictions are not good enough and other countries have better models. The moment is right for change
https://www.thetimes.com/article/2659d8c6-9eb1-44b0-872b-0d36186ceed7?shareToken=1a08130662840d9b536cfbc08beb674d
about 2 months ago
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reposted by
David Smith
My Times piece: Construction is in what looks to be a sustained downturn, the mood in house building is bleak, and it wasnât all due to pre-budget uncertainty: Builders arenât building â and thatâs a worry for the economy
www.thetimes.com/article/01c8...
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Builders arenât building â and thatâs a worry for the economy
For a government that has prioritised house building, stagnant or declining construction would be another missed target
https://www.thetimes.com/article/01c8e6fe-42a2-4a46-a7f7-d9db2239df41?shareToken=1995ab3eaf2df15c0fb61332f0b0ee30
2 months ago
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