Excellent article by @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social & the PS is fascinating also. Surprised this didn't happen already. We had a vote in class about IR - 2 went higher, 8 or 9 went lower & the rest held. Students had to justify their choice, so it seems reasonable MPC members should as well! #EconSky

My Sunday Times piece: A rise in income tax rates would be no bad thing if part of a proper tax reform strategy, but not as a panicked response to a failed budget deficit reduction policy, which is the reality: Rachel Reeves’ raid on income tax could work www.thetimes.com/article/6c0f...

My Sunday Times piece: A rise in income tax rates would be no bad thing if part of a proper tax reform strategy, but not as a panicked response to a failed budget deficit reduction policy, which is the reality: Rachel Reeves’ raid on income tax could work www.thetimes.com/article/6c0f...

My Times piece: Why the Bank of England should not cut interest rates this week, ahead of the budget, and probably not again this year: Bank of England would boost its credibility by not cutting rates www.thetimes.com/article/e67e...

My Times piece: Why the Bank of England should not cut interest rates this week, ahead of the budget, and probably not again this year: Bank of England would boost its credibility by not cutting rates www.thetimes.com/article/e67e...

My Sunday Times piece: Rachel Reeves’s fiscal consolidation in the budget will have a lot more chance of success if it includes spending cuts as well as tax hikes: Spending cuts are crucial for Reeves to get out of this fiscal hole www.thetimes.com/article/6105...

My Sunday Times piece: Rachel Reeves’s fiscal consolidation in the budget will have a lot more chance of success if it includes spending cuts as well as tax hikes: Spending cuts are crucial for Reeves to get out of this fiscal hole www.thetimes.com/article/6105...

Top 1% per cent, pre-tax income £219,000+, 26.6% all income tax 2025-26, down from 30.7% 2021-22. Top 5% (£99,900+) down 50.9% to 47.1%. Middle 25-5% up from 26 to 28.5%. Bottom 50% up 9.2 to 9.9%. (£) www.thetimes.com/business-mon... By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social

My Times piece: The OBR is downgrading its estimates of future UK productivity growth, with implications for tax hikes, at the very time that official measures of it have become very unreliable: Productivity is hard to measure now and even harder to improve www.thetimes.com/article/9ef1...

My Times piece: The OBR is downgrading its estimates of future UK productivity growth, with implications for tax hikes, at the very time that official measures of it have become very unreliable: Productivity is hard to measure now and even harder to improve www.thetimes.com/article/9ef1...

My Sunday Times piece: The negative effects of Brexit on trade, investment, growth and productivity have re-emerged ahead of the November 26 budget. Plus: scrapping the 60% marginal rate would cost a lot: Why the economic fallout from Brexit is a hot issue again www.thetimes.com/article/aa8a...

My Sunday Times piece: The negative effects of Brexit on trade, investment, growth and productivity have re-emerged ahead of the November 26 budget. Plus: scrapping the 60% marginal rate would cost a lot: Why the economic fallout from Brexit is a hot issue again www.thetimes.com/article/aa8a...

Exports in goods are down 14% since final pre-Brexit quarter of 2019. Services exporters now face higher trading costs, more red tape and fewer opportunities. Services exports have been underperforming due to Brexit barriers. (£) www.thetimes.com/business-mon... By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social

My Times piece: Labour is under pressure in Wales for good reason. Its economy is underperforming even a subdued UK economy and it is hard to see what will lift it: Wales is in sad decline — and Labour deserves to lose it www.thetimes.com/article/3983...

My Times piece: Labour is under pressure in Wales for good reason. Its economy is underperforming even a subdued UK economy and it is hard to see what will lift it: Wales is in sad decline — and Labour deserves to lose it www.thetimes.com/article/3983...

My Sunday Times piece: High and volatile inflation, past increases in interest rates, the freeze on income tax allowances and thresholds, and fears about the November 26 budget are holding down spending: Why Britain’s consumers are now a drag on economic growth www.thetimes.com/article/eb76...

Yes, fair point. Everybody expected the savings built up during the pandemic to be spent but people decided to be more cautious, perhaps for good reason.

Good point

My Sunday Times piece: High and volatile inflation, past increases in interest rates, the freeze on income tax allowances and thresholds, and fears about the November 26 budget are holding down spending: Why Britain’s consumers are now a drag on economic growth www.thetimes.com/article/eb76...

My Times piece: The chancellor is angry the OBR has chosen now to downgrade medium-term growth and productivity forecasts, necessitating bigger tax hikes next month. But it is unlikely to change its mind: Convincing voters is one thing — the OBR is quite another www.thetimes.com/article/7513...

My Times piece: The chancellor is angry the OBR has chosen now to downgrade medium-term growth and productivity forecasts, necessitating bigger tax hikes next month. But it is unlikely to change its mind: Convincing voters is one thing — the OBR is quite another www.thetimes.com/article/7513...

Thank you

Excellent article by @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social on a topic that most economists would agree with. Fuel duty freeze' should be compared to public transport rises (notably trains), where it makes no sense to travel by train if you have a car from a price perspective. #EconSky

My Sunday Times piece: Sacred cows like the pension triple lock and the long freeze on fuel duty help explain why other taxes are having to go up: Taxes are going up, and the pension triple lock is one of the reasons www.thetimes.com/article/7f77...

My Sunday Times piece: Sacred cows like the pension triple lock and the long freeze on fuel duty help explain why other taxes are having to go up: Taxes are going up, and the pension triple lock is one of the reasons www.thetimes.com/article/7f77...

Thanks, Thomas

Great article from @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social who kindly quoted my research on funding & financing infrastructure without negatively impacting the public finances. The Chancellor can pursue an alternative path.. @greenmirandahere.bsky.social @tonytassell.bsky.social @pmdfoster.bsky.social

My Times piece: We can learn from the Netherlands on how better to finance infrastructure spending and more house building, without spooking the markets: It’s time to go Dutch to solve Britain’s housing crisis www.thetimes.com/article/ce46...

A brief history of the UK's two official economic forecasts a year, and why we still need them. (£) www.thetimes.com/business-mon... By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social

My Sunday Times piece: The chancellor has hinted at cutting official forecasts to one a year, which would be a mistake. Just treat one of the OBR’s two forecasts as advisory, not a call for immediate action: Don’t shoot the messenger by burying OBR forecasts www.thetimes.com/article/6040...

My Sunday Times piece: The chancellor has hinted at cutting official forecasts to one a year, which would be a mistake. Just treat one of the OBR’s two forecasts as advisory, not a call for immediate action: Don’t shoot the messenger by burying OBR forecasts www.thetimes.com/article/6040...

My Times piece: Donald Trump’s tariffs haven’t crashed the economy - they take time to work through - but they are slowly damaging it: Trump tariffs are taking their toll on America by stealth www.thetimes.com/article/b0fd...

My Times piece: Donald Trump’s tariffs haven’t crashed the economy - they take time to work through - but they are slowly damaging it: Trump tariffs are taking their toll on America by stealth www.thetimes.com/article/b0fd...

Will Reeves reach for a grab bag of tax raisers that further complicate system, or set out a proper tax strategy, including some least economically damaging tax rises, even if going against one of Labour’s manifesto commitments? (£) www.thetimes.com/business-mon... By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social

My Sunday Times piece: The budget process will get going when the OBR presents its first forecast next Friday. Will the chancellor, under pressure, opt for a “make do and mend” budget or go for something bolder? Will Rachel Reeves dare to be bold in her budget? www.thetimes.com/article/ba9e...

My Sunday Times piece: The budget process will get going when the OBR presents its first forecast next Friday. Will the chancellor, under pressure, opt for a “make do and mend” budget or go for something bolder? Will Rachel Reeves dare to be bold in her budget? www.thetimes.com/article/ba9e...

My Times piece: People expect inflation to stay high - their expectations are “elevated” - and that adds to the challenge of getting it back down to the 2% target again: High expectations make it harder to get inflation down www.thetimes.com/article/b71d...

My Times piece: People expect inflation to stay high - their expectations are “elevated” - and that adds to the challenge of getting it back down to the 2% target again: High expectations make it harder to get inflation down www.thetimes.com/article/b71d...

Thanks Jonathan

Very good explainer by @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social on the UK's productivity underperformance vs the US - exaggerated but real. www.thetimes.com/article/54cd...

My Sunday Times piece: Weak productivity, poor resilience and self inflicted damage mean UK GDP per capita, properly measured, is falling well behind the US. We’ve closed the gap before, can we again? America is leaving the UK economy behind. How can we catch up? www.thetimes.com/article/54cd...

My Sunday Times piece: Weak productivity, poor resilience and self inflicted damage mean UK GDP per capita, properly measured, is falling well behind the US. We’ve closed the gap before, can we again? America is leaving the UK economy behind. How can we catch up? www.thetimes.com/article/54cd...

My Times piece: There is little chance of a Bank of England rate cut this week but, following bond market turbulence, its decision on gilt sales over the next 12 months is important: A rate cut is unlikely, but the Bank has a big decision to announce www.thetimes.com/article/f68b...

My Times piece: There is little chance of a Bank of England rate cut this week but, following bond market turbulence, its decision on gilt sales over the next 12 months is important: A rate cut is unlikely, but the Bank has a big decision to announce www.thetimes.com/article/f68b...

@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social we would all benefit from politicians doing more of the prosaic and much much less of the “world-leading”. Don't fall for political parties selling economic snake oil. www.thetimes.com/article/63d1... I had my passport checked on the train from Copenhagen to Malmo btw

My Sunday Times piece: Mainstream political parties are under pressure but they are the ones who have had to deal in office with economic reality, rather than the fantasies peddled by the populists: Don’t fall for political parties selling economic snake oil www.thetimes.com/article/63d1...

My Sunday Times piece: Mainstream political parties are under pressure but they are the ones who have had to deal in office with economic reality, rather than the fantasies peddled by the populists: Don’t fall for political parties selling economic snake oil www.thetimes.com/article/63d1...

Sigh, the usual economically illiterate nonsense.

My Sunday Times piece: The chancellor has 11 weeks to convince the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and the gilt market that she is on the right track. It won’t be easy: How Rachel Reeves hopes to win over her doubters — and the markets www.thetimes.com/article/8ac5...

My Times piece: Labour’s ambition of 1.5m new homes this Parliament is badly off track. Giving builders the freedom to build the houses they want to could help, and ease the affordability crisis: Could luxury homes be the key to solving UK’s housing crisis? www.thetimes.com/article/1897...