David Smith
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
đ€ 2102
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Economics Editor, The Sunday Times.
reposted by
David Smith
John Peters
about 8 hours ago
OBR says âpre-measuresâ forecast in autumn 2024 was too high bcs it did not fully anticipate impact of Trump tariffs and could not anticipate the growth-reducing Jaguar Land Rover shutdown. It did not blame Reeves's NI increase. (ÂŁ)
www.thetimes.com/business/eco...
By
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
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How the G7 will look by 2050 â and what it means for us
After the Trump tariffs, the age of âhyper-globalisationâ is over and post-Brexit Britain must pivot to new trading partnerships. Plus: why OBR forecasts were wrong
https://www.thetimes.com/business/economics/article/world-economy-uk-trading-partnerships-q0hs9pmjc
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Another Sunday Times piece from me: The new Danish government is cutting income tax, corporation tax and some VAT rates. How come it can afford to do so when U.K. taxes are only going up? If cheery Denmark can cut taxes, why canât the UK?
www.thetimes.com/article/33e2...
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If cheery Denmark can cut taxes, why canât the UK?
The Nordic country has a generous welfare state and yet is able to reduce the burden on its taxpayers. Thereâs a simple reason
https://www.thetimes.com/article/33e229e9-989c-4a6f-ae03-019a79e8e202?shareToken=f1ea59e2ea22050327d5095f58152241
about 11 hours ago
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Thank you
add a skeleton here at some point
about 11 hours ago
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reposted by
David Smith
EconomicsInTen
about 12 hours ago
Fantastic article by
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
about BRIC countries. Remember when this was the 'hot topic' in Economics & then the sequel - MINT. Interesting to see Indonesia is the only MINT mentioned here. Is a hit ratio of 3 out of 7 good? Shows difficulty of predicting winners.
#EconSky
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reposted by
David Smith
My Sunday Times piece: Decades on from the original BRICs analysis, Brazil and Russia have fallen by the wayside but China and India will be in the worldâs big three by mid-century. And Indonesiaâs rising fast How the G7 will look by 2050 â and what it means for us
www.thetimes.com/article/17c0...
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How the G7 will look by 2050 â and what it means for us
After the Trump tariffs, the age of âhyper-globalisationâ is over and post-Brexit Britain must pivot to new trading partnerships. Plus: why OBR forecasts were wrong
https://www.thetimes.com/article/17c05d4b-8348-4ff2-8de2-7838ef252496?shareToken=292ccfae996d6180893ab14ed8b8e06c
about 22 hours ago
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My Sunday Times piece: Decades on from the original BRICs analysis, Brazil and Russia have fallen by the wayside but China and India will be in the worldâs big three by mid-century. And Indonesiaâs rising fast How the G7 will look by 2050 â and what it means for us
www.thetimes.com/article/17c0...
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How the G7 will look by 2050 â and what it means for us
After the Trump tariffs, the age of âhyper-globalisationâ is over and post-Brexit Britain must pivot to new trading partnerships. Plus: why OBR forecasts were wrong
https://www.thetimes.com/article/17c05d4b-8348-4ff2-8de2-7838ef252496?shareToken=292ccfae996d6180893ab14ed8b8e06c
about 22 hours ago
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reposted by
David Smith
John Peters
4 days ago
Inactivity rate for 50â64 age group is more than 25%. Nearly 3.4mn are classified as economically inactive. The economically inactive in this age group account for more than 37% of the 9.1mn UK total for inactive people aged 16â64. (ÂŁ)
www.thetimes.com/business/eco...
By
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
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Verifying Device
https://www.thetimes.com/business/economics/article/older-workers-fix-neet-economic-inactivity-problem-ageism-xr7l8pv6q
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reposted by
David Smith
My Times piece: We should worry about Neets, and high levels of youth unemployment and inactivity. But we should not forget about the over-50s, many of whom who are locked out of the job market: Older workers may be overlooked solution to inactivity crisis
www.thetimes.com/article/79a8...
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Verifying Device
https://www.thetimes.com/article/79a8a355-a902-4e2f-8b74-b5e93a0df17b?shareToken=c30b94ba8b84163544beef08f906d80f
5 days ago
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My Times piece: We should worry about Neets, and high levels of youth unemployment and inactivity. But we should not forget about the over-50s, many of whom who are locked out of the job market: Older workers may be overlooked solution to inactivity crisis
www.thetimes.com/article/79a8...
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Verifying Device
https://www.thetimes.com/article/79a8a355-a902-4e2f-8b74-b5e93a0df17b?shareToken=c30b94ba8b84163544beef08f906d80f
5 days ago
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reposted by
David Smith
John Peters
7 days ago
Describing Brexit damage is not difficult. Leaving the EU has hit business investment, foreign direct investment, growth and trade, and helped lock in low productivity and weak growth in prosperity. (ÂŁ)
www.thetimes.com/business/eco...
By
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
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Ten years on from Brexit, where do the UK and EU go next?
Leaving the European Union has hit investment, growth and trade, but rejoining does not look achievable. Should the old EEC model be back on the table?
https://www.thetimes.com/business/economics/article/ten-years-from-brexit-where-do-uk-and-eu-go-next-ffvwnxm7j
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reposted by
David Smith
My Sunday Times piece: As the referendum anniversary approaches, the economic and political damage from Brexit is very clear, but reversing it by rejoining looks as politically difficult as it has ever been: Ten years on from Brexit, where do the UK and EU go next?
www.thetimes.com/article/8390...
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Ten years on from Brexit, where do the UK and EU go next?
Leaving the European Union has hit investment, growth and trade, but rejoining does not look achievable. Should the old EEC model be back on the table?
https://www.thetimes.com/article/83902264-f442-40fc-bab0-ee09d2f33054?shareToken=7ba5b44f35d05ebdebb4ede68a976944
8 days ago
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My Sunday Times piece: As the referendum anniversary approaches, the economic and political damage from Brexit is very clear, but reversing it by rejoining looks as politically difficult as it has ever been: Ten years on from Brexit, where do the UK and EU go next?
www.thetimes.com/article/8390...
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Ten years on from Brexit, where do the UK and EU go next?
Leaving the European Union has hit investment, growth and trade, but rejoining does not look achievable. Should the old EEC model be back on the table?
https://www.thetimes.com/article/83902264-f442-40fc-bab0-ee09d2f33054?shareToken=7ba5b44f35d05ebdebb4ede68a976944
8 days ago
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reposted by
David Smith
EconomicsInTen
11 days ago
Fascinating article by
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
& would be interesting to see the productivity of all the firms McKinsey are involved with & McKinsey themselves. In our Edith Penrose episode we spoke about firms removing management with years of industry knowledge for MBA guys - linked to RBV.
add a skeleton here at some point
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reposted by
David Smith
My Times piece: Amid a debate on whether U.K. productivity is finally improving, I focus on new research showing that a significant part of the productivity problem is down to poor management: Is bad management to blame for UKâs productivity problem?
www.thetimes.com/article/947d...
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Is bad management to blame for UKâs productivity problem?
A McKinsey report doesnât pull any punches when comparing Britain to the US and Germany, highlighting the issues creating our âdoom loopâ
https://www.thetimes.com/article/947d8347-a669-4b94-ba07-e1db02edb3dc?shareToken=b577c23de004b1417578c13727f9f478
12 days ago
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My Times piece: Amid a debate on whether U.K. productivity is finally improving, I focus on new research showing that a significant part of the productivity problem is down to poor management: Is bad management to blame for UKâs productivity problem?
www.thetimes.com/article/947d...
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Is bad management to blame for UKâs productivity problem?
A McKinsey report doesnât pull any punches when comparing Britain to the US and Germany, highlighting the issues creating our âdoom loopâ
https://www.thetimes.com/article/947d8347-a669-4b94-ba07-e1db02edb3dc?shareToken=b577c23de004b1417578c13727f9f478
12 days ago
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reposted by
David Smith
My Sunday Times piece: Statistics and surveys for housebuilding and construction are very gloomy but visiting the UKâs big real estate event last week, the mood was cautiously optimistic: The UK economy will struggle if the builders donât start building
www.thetimes.com/article/5141...
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The UK economy will struggle if the builders donât start building
Amid the turmoil unleased by the Iran war, can construction come to the rescue by hitting Labourâs target of 1.5m new homes? So far, the signs arenât good
https://www.thetimes.com/article/5141e25a-d450-441a-85b3-e8670ae22e3e?shareToken=a9665e1d5818356a59a83aec89c0e18b
15 days ago
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He did talk about training more construction workers but I didnât quote that bit. Itâs not Labourâs immigration policy but Brexit which is the problem with construction worker supply:
add a skeleton here at some point
15 days ago
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My Sunday Times piece: Statistics and surveys for housebuilding and construction are very gloomy but visiting the UKâs big real estate event last week, the mood was cautiously optimistic: The UK economy will struggle if the builders donât start building
www.thetimes.com/article/5141...
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The UK economy will struggle if the builders donât start building
Amid the turmoil unleased by the Iran war, can construction come to the rescue by hitting Labourâs target of 1.5m new homes? So far, the signs arenât good
https://www.thetimes.com/article/5141e25a-d450-441a-85b3-e8670ae22e3e?shareToken=a9665e1d5818356a59a83aec89c0e18b
15 days ago
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reposted by
David Smith
John Peters
18 days ago
For GDP growth to make discernible difference to households & businesses, it must be strong: 1 or 1.5%pa does not cut it. Growth has averaged just 1.6%pa a year since 2010 and 1.4%pa since 2016 (ÂŁ)
www.thetimes.com/business/eco...
Interesting point by
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
about 'felt growth'
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UK may again beat IMF forecast â but will it be enough for Labour?
Rachel Reeves must not be too hasty to celebrate if the economy continues the trend of outpacing expected GDP growth â people need to feel wealthier
https://www.thetimes.com/business/economics/article/uk-economic-growth-government-challenge-jmh8wz6hk
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Todayâs column
add a skeleton here at some point
18 days ago
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reposted by
David Smith
My Times piece: The UK economy defied IMF growth downgrades in 2024 and 2025 and is on course to so again this year. But with so many economic worries around, does anybody really notice? UK may again beat IMF forecast â but will it be enough for Labour?
www.thetimes.com/article/1903...
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UK may again beat IMF forecast â but will it be enough for Labour?
Rachel Reeves must not be too hasty to celebrate if the economy continues the trend of outpacing expected GDP growth â people need to feel wealthier
https://www.thetimes.com/article/1903b9a5-75cb-4f79-9b9f-9956d03d014d?shareToken=bcd1aec8f369bc4f3785306f51a8feb7
19 days ago
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My Times piece: The UK economy defied IMF growth downgrades in 2024 and 2025 and is on course to so again this year. But with so many economic worries around, does anybody really notice? UK may again beat IMF forecast â but will it be enough for Labour?
www.thetimes.com/article/1903...
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UK may again beat IMF forecast â but will it be enough for Labour?
Rachel Reeves must not be too hasty to celebrate if the economy continues the trend of outpacing expected GDP growth â people need to feel wealthier
https://www.thetimes.com/article/1903b9a5-75cb-4f79-9b9f-9956d03d014d?shareToken=bcd1aec8f369bc4f3785306f51a8feb7
19 days ago
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Thanks, Jonathan
add a skeleton here at some point
19 days ago
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reposted by
David Smith
Jonathan Portes
20 days ago
"Politicians promising change that will restore past glories are doomed to disappoint." Very good piece by
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
on how the fetishisation of "manufacturing" [my words not his] distorts our political economy..
www.thetimes.com/article/569d...
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https://www.thetimes.com/article/569d1392-d5d7-4a38-8d30-4a7da72afdcd?shareToken=622f72272121456ad1588c882399545d
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reposted by
David Smith
Alison McGovern
21 days ago
All this is true & good piece from
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
but if you want to get the best view you need sub-regional analysis. Look at the economic difference *within* regions which can be even more startling...and revealing of the cause of our political problems.
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reposted by
David Smith
John Peters
21 days ago
Poorest region, by GDP per head, was North East, 28% below national ave, followed by Wales, 26% below. It will not have escaped your attention that these were places where the political earthquakes on May 7 were most intense. (ÂŁ)
www.thetimes.com/business/eco...
By
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
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Voters cried out for help. Know-how, not nostalgia, can save them
Industrial heartlands launched a mass protest at the local elections, but the clock canât be turned back. Plus: the curious case of quarterly GDP
https://www.thetimes.com/business/economics/article/local-elections-industrial-economy-nostalgia-labour-m2k8wr90d
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reposted by
David Smith
My Sunday Times column: Britainâs industrial decline has long shaped the countryâs economic geography. It keeps reshaping our political geography too, because no politician has an answer to it: Voters cried out for help. Know-how, not nostalgia, can save them
www.thetimes.com/article/569d...
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Voters cried out for help. Know-how, not nostalgia, can save them
Industrial heartlands launched a mass protest at the local elections, but the clock canât be turned back. Plus: the curious case of quarterly GDP
https://www.thetimes.com/article/569d1392-d5d7-4a38-8d30-4a7da72afdcd?shareToken=622f72272121456ad1588c882399545d
22 days ago
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Thank you
add a skeleton here at some point
22 days ago
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reposted by
David Smith
EconomicsInTen
22 days ago
Interesting article by
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
about how structural issues have created the problems we have now. It is the case we can't go backwards but nostalgia has taken over the political sphere and this is a rocky road to go down.
#EconSky
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reposted by
David Smith
Andy Squibb
22 days ago
Another really interesting article by David Smith. Despite the promises of various political parties, nostalgia is not the solution to the industrial decline⊠those days are gone and there's a need to retrain & redirect the resources to alternative production/service provision.
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My Sunday Times column: Britainâs industrial decline has long shaped the countryâs economic geography. It keeps reshaping our political geography too, because no politician has an answer to it: Voters cried out for help. Know-how, not nostalgia, can save them
www.thetimes.com/article/569d...
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Voters cried out for help. Know-how, not nostalgia, can save them
Industrial heartlands launched a mass protest at the local elections, but the clock canât be turned back. Plus: the curious case of quarterly GDP
https://www.thetimes.com/article/569d1392-d5d7-4a38-8d30-4a7da72afdcd?shareToken=622f72272121456ad1588c882399545d
22 days ago
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A Sunday Times piece on the economics of Angela Rayner, Andy Burnham and other ideas to shape Labour economic policy. Convincing voters and markets is a challenge: Why big business fears âRaynernomicsâ â and Andy Burnham
www.thetimes.com/article/5964...
shareToken=25e41fa89105d25c145641b8aa861478
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Why big business fears âRaynernomicsâ â and Andy Burnham
The former deputy prime minister is to the left of both Keir Starmer and Wes Streeting, and the Greater Manchester mayor could follow her playbook
https://www.thetimes.com/article/5964c532-04ba-4cbb-b4a9-8bce17a30f33?shareToken=25e41fa89105d25c145641b8aa861478
22 days ago
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reposted by
David Smith
John Peters
28 days ago
The gilt market has been telling us, among other things, that Labour alternatives to Starmer and Reeves would be very risky, and that they are seen as the safest pairs of hands in the party. (ÂŁ)
www.thetimes.com/business/eco...
By
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
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The bond vigilantes are back, and a Starmer coup would cost us all
The markets donât like the idea of Sir Keir Starmer or Rachel Reeves being replaced, or the rise of the populists â and higher borrowing costs are the result
https://www.thetimes.com/business/economics/article/bond-vigilantes-starmer-coup-labour-economics-kqfh356vr
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Pathetic. And further demonstrating that you donât understand any of this.
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29 days ago
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Read the piece
add a skeleton here at some point
29 days ago
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No. A clear indication that you donât understand the point that is being made.
add a skeleton here at some point
29 days ago
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My Sunday Times piece: The gilt market has calmed a little because despite terrible Labour losses the PM is still there. But markets are on high alert for another lurch into political instability: The bond vigilantes are back, and a Starmer coup would cost us all
www.thetimes.com/article/1bc4...
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The bond vigilantes are back, and a Starmer coup would cost us all
The markets donât like the idea of Sir Keir Starmer or Rachel Reeves being replaced, or the rise of the populists â and higher borrowing costs are the result
https://www.thetimes.com/article/1bc40ff4-02eb-4765-9909-babc86415943?shareToken=cce489b677c2ea4a383b3cd935551fb5
29 days ago
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Thanks, Jonathan
add a skeleton here at some point
about 1 month ago
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reposted by
David Smith
Jonathan Portes
about 1 month ago
Last year
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
noted the relative strength of household finances and predicted the UK economy might outperform expectations as a result. Seems he was right - but of course Trump's war means we may not feel the benefits for long.
www.thetimes.com/business/eco...
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Economy is holding up in face of energy shock â whatâs going on?
The UK is proving surprisingly resilient as the effects of the Iran war go through the global economy, but beware the second half of the year
https://www.thetimes.com/business/economics/article/economy-is-holding-up-in-face-of-energy-shock-whats-going-on-wmmdtlzgz
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David Smith
My Times piece: The UK economy appears to have done OK in April, in fact better than in March, in spite of the Iran war. Is it resilience or just the delayed impact so far of the energy shock? Economy is holding up in face of energy shock â whatâs going on?
www.thetimes.com/article/8d10...
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Economy is holding up in face of energy shock â whatâs going on?
The UK is proving surprisingly resilient as the effects of the Iran war go through the global economy, but beware the second half of the year
https://www.thetimes.com/article/8d10ab17-565c-4801-b3f5-60661e1f10b2?shareToken=a7c0c6e7ef8052a54d40e2d1fb44c849
about 1 month ago
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My Times piece: The UK economy appears to have done OK in April, in fact better than in March, in spite of the Iran war. Is it resilience or just the delayed impact so far of the energy shock? Economy is holding up in face of energy shock â whatâs going on?
www.thetimes.com/article/8d10...
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Economy is holding up in face of energy shock â whatâs going on?
The UK is proving surprisingly resilient as the effects of the Iran war go through the global economy, but beware the second half of the year
https://www.thetimes.com/article/8d10ab17-565c-4801-b3f5-60661e1f10b2?shareToken=a7c0c6e7ef8052a54d40e2d1fb44c849
about 1 month ago
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reposted by
David Smith
My Sunday Times piece: Above-target inflation looms, eroding the reputation of the independent Bank of England. A new book co-written by Charles Goodhart highlights the risks to that independence: Is the bell tolling for independent central banking in Britain?
www.thetimes.com/article/622c...
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Is the bell tolling for independent central banking in Britain?
It will soon be 30 years since the Bank of England took full control of monetary policy, but as inflationary pressures storm its barricades, something may give
https://www.thetimes.com/article/622c15c4-94bd-4f31-8350-3007e88a6a31?shareToken=1e67aad016136824ffade8a4c3de7b03
about 1 month ago
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My Sunday Times piece: Above-target inflation looms, eroding the reputation of the independent Bank of England. A new book co-written by Charles Goodhart highlights the risks to that independence: Is the bell tolling for independent central banking in Britain?
www.thetimes.com/article/622c...
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Is the bell tolling for independent central banking in Britain?
It will soon be 30 years since the Bank of England took full control of monetary policy, but as inflationary pressures storm its barricades, something may give
https://www.thetimes.com/article/622c15c4-94bd-4f31-8350-3007e88a6a31?shareToken=1e67aad016136824ffade8a4c3de7b03
about 1 month ago
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David Smith
My Times piece: A sharp rise in U.K. inflation expectations will worry the Bank of Englandâs monetary policy committee and could see some votes for a hike in interest rates this week: Inflation expectations have jumped â bad news for the Bank of England
www.thetimes.com/article/39fc...
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Inflation expectations have jumped â bad news for the Bank of England
Public short-term inflation expectations leapt to 5.4 per cent last month. Will the Bank of England take decisive action or risk further economic instability?
https://www.thetimes.com/article/39fcff27-c86a-4f25-b83d-024853720033?shareToken=1a4a39637db36ac43b884335265aaa3d
about 1 month ago
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My Times piece: A sharp rise in U.K. inflation expectations will worry the Bank of Englandâs monetary policy committee and could see some votes for a hike in interest rates this week: Inflation expectations have jumped â bad news for the Bank of England
www.thetimes.com/article/39fc...
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Inflation expectations have jumped â bad news for the Bank of England
Public short-term inflation expectations leapt to 5.4 per cent last month. Will the Bank of England take decisive action or risk further economic instability?
https://www.thetimes.com/article/39fcff27-c86a-4f25-b83d-024853720033?shareToken=1a4a39637db36ac43b884335265aaa3d
about 1 month ago
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Thank you
add a skeleton here at some point
about 1 month ago
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reposted by
David Smith
Economics Teacher
about 1 month ago
âExam goldâ here for all economists students going into exams in a few weeks
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reposted by
David Smith
My Sunday Times piece: Last week saw a surprise fall in unemployment, partly because of a rise in economic inactivity. But the challenge will be to stop the jobless total rising in the wake of the energy shock A fall in unemployment â but can it possibly last?
www.thetimes.com/article/e8e7...
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A fall in unemployment â but can it possibly last?
The Iran war is set to have its biggest impact not on inflation but on jobs and growth. Plus: the economics of kidney transplants
https://www.thetimes.com/article/e8e76709-c2d3-44bc-b7e3-705f8cd2a8ff?shareToken=151b370f4813f104e997646a7ab9a850
about 1 month ago
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My Sunday Times piece: Last week saw a surprise fall in unemployment, partly because of a rise in economic inactivity. But the challenge will be to stop the jobless total rising in the wake of the energy shock A fall in unemployment â but can it possibly last?
www.thetimes.com/article/e8e7...
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A fall in unemployment â but can it possibly last?
The Iran war is set to have its biggest impact not on inflation but on jobs and growth. Plus: the economics of kidney transplants
https://www.thetimes.com/article/e8e76709-c2d3-44bc-b7e3-705f8cd2a8ff?shareToken=151b370f4813f104e997646a7ab9a850
about 1 month ago
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reposted by
David Smith
John Peters
about 2 months ago
(ÂŁ)
www.thetimes.com/business/eco...
By
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
There are reasons to support a cut in VAT for hospitality, and some against, but we can't afford it anyway.
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VAT cut for pubs and restaurants is food for thought
With the hospitality industry hit hard by government policies, this might be a good tax cut to consider if the public finances were in better shape
https://www.thetimes.com/business/economics/article/vat-tax-cut-hospitality-pubs-restaurants-xhnd23hpd
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