David Smith
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
📤 1900
📥 11
📝 149
Economics Editor, The Sunday Times.
reposted by
David Smith
Rick
1 day ago
As my mum used to say (eyes rolling): “Well you don’t want much, do you?”
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reposted by
David Smith
My Sunday Times piece, in which I reflect on an economy which was good on parts, but not that many parts, because it was mainly disappointing: A year in which the bad easily outweighed the good
www.thetimes.com/article/1dca...
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A year in which the bad easily outweighed the good
The UK economy experienced a lopsided 2025. Growth forecasts for the coming year have been revised lower after a 0.7 per cent first-quarter GDP rise
https://www.thetimes.com/article/1dcae80e-2d8a-4aa9-80fe-9e5b49665379?shareToken=6dbd57fad8701353f4972f0563a6ec72
2 days ago
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reposted by
David Smith
EconomicsInTen
1 day ago
Good article from
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
that reads like a school report for the economy. Could do better it seems!
#EconSky
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My Sunday Times piece, in which I reflect on an economy which was good on parts, but not that many parts, because it was mainly disappointing: A year in which the bad easily outweighed the good
www.thetimes.com/article/1dca...
loading . . .
A year in which the bad easily outweighed the good
The UK economy experienced a lopsided 2025. Growth forecasts for the coming year have been revised lower after a 0.7 per cent first-quarter GDP rise
https://www.thetimes.com/article/1dcae80e-2d8a-4aa9-80fe-9e5b49665379?shareToken=6dbd57fad8701353f4972f0563a6ec72
2 days ago
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David Smith
My Times piece: If the three wise men have any gifts for the UK economy, a sustained productivity revival, low and stable inflation, and stability for the public finances would be very welcome: What do you get the troubled UK economy for Christmas?
www.thetimes.com/article/76ef...
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What do you get the troubled UK economy for Christmas?
After a tough year made worse by poor management, I’m wishing for three gifts that would give the nation’s finances a much-needed fillip
https://www.thetimes.com/article/76ef4b41-0a3a-4d54-a69a-af2cc49d8cd2?shareToken=62e3d45882fb78f65f20622e4b07464f
6 days ago
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My Times piece: If the three wise men have any gifts for the UK economy, a sustained productivity revival, low and stable inflation, and stability for the public finances would be very welcome: What do you get the troubled UK economy for Christmas?
www.thetimes.com/article/76ef...
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What do you get the troubled UK economy for Christmas?
After a tough year made worse by poor management, I’m wishing for three gifts that would give the nation’s finances a much-needed fillip
https://www.thetimes.com/article/76ef4b41-0a3a-4d54-a69a-af2cc49d8cd2?shareToken=62e3d45882fb78f65f20622e4b07464f
6 days ago
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Thank you. Quiz answers by email please, which is at the end of the column.
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9 days ago
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reposted by
David Smith
EconomicsInTen
9 days ago
Another interesting column by
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
about fiscal rules but this week, it comes with a quiz for students to answer!! Why not get involved? How do they send you answers David? And Merry Christmas btw! 🎅🤶
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David Smith
My Sunday Times piece: This has been a pretty disastrous year for fiscal policy, not least because of the government’s flawed fiscal rules, which are crying out to be reformed: Reeves has bought herself time to write smarter fiscal rules
www.thetimes.com/article/2659...
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Reeves has bought herself time to write smarter fiscal rules
The chancellor’s self-imposed restrictions are not good enough and other countries have better models. The moment is right for change
https://www.thetimes.com/article/2659d8c6-9eb1-44b0-872b-0d36186ceed7?shareToken=1a08130662840d9b536cfbc08beb674d
9 days ago
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My Sunday Times piece: This has been a pretty disastrous year for fiscal policy, not least because of the government’s flawed fiscal rules, which are crying out to be reformed: Reeves has bought herself time to write smarter fiscal rules
www.thetimes.com/article/2659...
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Reeves has bought herself time to write smarter fiscal rules
The chancellor’s self-imposed restrictions are not good enough and other countries have better models. The moment is right for change
https://www.thetimes.com/article/2659d8c6-9eb1-44b0-872b-0d36186ceed7?shareToken=1a08130662840d9b536cfbc08beb674d
9 days ago
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reposted by
David Smith
My Times piece: Construction is in what looks to be a sustained downturn, the mood in house building is bleak, and it wasn’t all due to pre-budget uncertainty: Builders aren’t building – and that’s a worry for the economy
www.thetimes.com/article/01c8...
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Builders aren’t building – and that’s a worry for the economy
For a government that has prioritised house building, stagnant or declining construction would be another missed target
https://www.thetimes.com/article/01c8e6fe-42a2-4a46-a7f7-d9db2239df41?shareToken=1995ab3eaf2df15c0fb61332f0b0ee30
13 days ago
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My Times piece: Construction is in what looks to be a sustained downturn, the mood in house building is bleak, and it wasn’t all due to pre-budget uncertainty: Builders aren’t building – and that’s a worry for the economy
www.thetimes.com/article/01c8...
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Builders aren’t building – and that’s a worry for the economy
For a government that has prioritised house building, stagnant or declining construction would be another missed target
https://www.thetimes.com/article/01c8e6fe-42a2-4a46-a7f7-d9db2239df41?shareToken=1995ab3eaf2df15c0fb61332f0b0ee30
13 days ago
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reposted by
David Smith
EconomicsInTen
16 days ago
We know we saw it last night but we're still extremely excited and happy that we're mentioned in a The Sunday Times economics article. Thanks
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
for a lovely early Christmas present. 🎅🕺🎄
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/e...
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reposted by
David Smith
My Sunday Times piece: Friday’s weak GDP figures probably guarantee a cut in UK interest rates in a few days’ time but the vote will be close, as will the next few decisions on rates: More interest rate cuts loom, but each will be a battle
www.thetimes.com/article/666b...
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More interest rate cuts loom, but each will be a battle
While the Bank of England is expected to cut this week, the arguments are finely balanced and rates may not have much further to fall in 2026
https://www.thetimes.com/article/666b5ff3-2192-483f-84bd-e1479888123d?shareToken=0d068a07a5173d1c7e09ba1f950c6f84
16 days ago
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My Sunday Times piece: Friday’s weak GDP figures probably guarantee a cut in UK interest rates in a few days’ time but the vote will be close, as will the next few decisions on rates: More interest rate cuts loom, but each will be a battle
www.thetimes.com/article/666b...
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More interest rate cuts loom, but each will be a battle
While the Bank of England is expected to cut this week, the arguments are finely balanced and rates may not have much further to fall in 2026
https://www.thetimes.com/article/666b5ff3-2192-483f-84bd-e1479888123d?shareToken=0d068a07a5173d1c7e09ba1f950c6f84
16 days ago
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reposted by
David Smith
My Times piece: After the the early 1980s and 1990s recessions, the UK economy emerged with strong, sustained growth. But not after the financial crisis or pandemic, when the economy failed to reboot. We’ve let crises go to waste and emerged with a weakened economy
www.thetimes.com/article/76cb...
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We’ve let crises go to waste and emerged with a weakened economy
More creative destruction — rather than government intervention — is what is needed in order to create growth and higher productivity
https://www.thetimes.com/article/76cb039d-6c34-4cbd-9ca4-0bc6ff804917?shareToken=b73098a19cb0be27d31e45c077104421
20 days ago
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Oh dear. See last Sunday’s piece.
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20 days ago
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My Times piece: After the the early 1980s and 1990s recessions, the UK economy emerged with strong, sustained growth. But not after the financial crisis or pandemic, when the economy failed to reboot. We’ve let crises go to waste and emerged with a weakened economy
www.thetimes.com/article/76cb...
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We’ve let crises go to waste and emerged with a weakened economy
More creative destruction — rather than government intervention — is what is needed in order to create growth and higher productivity
https://www.thetimes.com/article/76cb039d-6c34-4cbd-9ca4-0bc6ff804917?shareToken=b73098a19cb0be27d31e45c077104421
20 days ago
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reposted by
David Smith
John Peters
22 days ago
Analysis in OBR’s paper describes the four big shocks to the economy — the financial crisis, Brexit, the pandemic and the European energy crisis following the Russian invasion of Ukraine — and the UK’s vulnerability to each. (£)
www.thetimes.com/business/eco...
By
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
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Britain is in the productivity doldrums. What can lift us out?
Since the financial crisis, the UK has suffered the biggest fall in productivity growth among the G7. Trade has dragged it down but could AI pick it up?
https://www.thetimes.com/business/economics/article/uk-business-fall-productivity-q2qzsmt80
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Thank you. Good idea on podcasts.
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23 days ago
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reposted by
David Smith
EconomicsInTen
23 days ago
Excellent article by
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
on the UK's continued 'Productivity Puzzle' and it comes with some book recommendations as well. We've got 'Capitalism and its Critics' but lots of other goodies. Maybe next week podcast recommendations David & we have just the thing... 😉
#EconSky
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David Smith
My Sunday Times piece: A trade slowdown, including what the OBR says is the enduring impact of Brexit, helps explain UK productivity stagnation. Can AI lift it by more than the OBR expects? Britain is in the productivity doldrums. What can lift us out?
www.thetimes.com/article/1871...
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Britain is in the productivity doldrums. What can lift us out?
Since the financial crisis, the UK has suffered the biggest fall in productivity growth among the G7. Trade has dragged it down but could AI pick it up?
https://www.thetimes.com/article/18713467-a57a-4f3e-a9a5-da7b3146201d?shareToken=35626f0f32f8e0b19c3179d1abfe5d31
23 days ago
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My Sunday Times piece: A trade slowdown, including what the OBR says is the enduring impact of Brexit, helps explain UK productivity stagnation. Can AI lift it by more than the OBR expects? Britain is in the productivity doldrums. What can lift us out?
www.thetimes.com/article/1871...
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Britain is in the productivity doldrums. What can lift us out?
Since the financial crisis, the UK has suffered the biggest fall in productivity growth among the G7. Trade has dragged it down but could AI pick it up?
https://www.thetimes.com/article/18713467-a57a-4f3e-a9a5-da7b3146201d?shareToken=35626f0f32f8e0b19c3179d1abfe5d31
23 days ago
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reposted by
David Smith
My Times piece: Even after its worst few days, we need the OBR more than ever to keep the Treasury, and chancellors, in check: A fiscal watchdog that doesn’t growl or bark is not worth having
www.thetimes.com/article/a5c7...
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A fiscal watchdog that doesn’t growl or bark is not worth having
The OBR isn’t perfect, but much of the criticism it gets comes from people who do not really understand what it does — which is stand up to the Treasury
https://www.thetimes.com/article/a5c7cb3d-65f1-4123-be4a-c5385407a642?shareToken=76ede8b13c28205846ba0c251f94272f
27 days ago
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My Times piece: Even after its worst few days, we need the OBR more than ever to keep the Treasury, and chancellors, in check: A fiscal watchdog that doesn’t growl or bark is not worth having
www.thetimes.com/article/a5c7...
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A fiscal watchdog that doesn’t growl or bark is not worth having
The OBR isn’t perfect, but much of the criticism it gets comes from people who do not really understand what it does — which is stand up to the Treasury
https://www.thetimes.com/article/a5c7cb3d-65f1-4123-be4a-c5385407a642?shareToken=76ede8b13c28205846ba0c251f94272f
27 days ago
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reposted by
David Smith
Stefan Stern
29 days ago
Penetrating commentary as usual from
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
(with an added bonus bit of analysis on how the "dog's breakfast" has changed over time).
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Oh dear. Sad.
add a skeleton here at some point
29 days ago
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Thank you
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30 days ago
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reposted by
David Smith
EconomicsInTen
30 days ago
Great piece from
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
reflecting on the Budget and I do hope the story about Mandelson at the end is true. 🤣 Where did that come from? Will certainly be retelling it in the classroom! We're now wondering whether a 'builder's tea' is still a builder's tea or a nice camomile. 🤔
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My Sunday Times piece: The budget did nothing to boost growth and without a stronger revival, the public finances will remain vulnerable, and the threat of even higher taxes will persist: Now we really need the growth fairy to wave her magic wand
www.thetimes.com/article/a135...
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Now we really need the growth fairy to wave her magic wand
Rachel Reeves’s budget extended the biggest stealth tax increase in history and left public spending unchecked. So where will growth come from?
https://www.thetimes.com/article/a13582d2-a762-4c1c-9ff2-dbb8531f7b36?shareToken=3ff0a1aa233fb010e5aa9c0ff3de4faf
30 days ago
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My Sunday Times piece: The budget did nothing to boost growth and without a stronger revival, the public finances will remain vulnerable, and the threat of even higher taxes will persist: Now we really need the growth fairy to wave her magic wand
www.thetimes.com/article/a135...
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Now we really need the growth fairy to wave her magic wand
Rachel Reeves’s budget extended the biggest stealth tax increase in history and left public spending unchecked. So where will growth come from?
https://www.thetimes.com/article/a13582d2-a762-4c1c-9ff2-dbb8531f7b36?shareToken=3ff0a1aa233fb010e5aa9c0ff3de4faf
30 days ago
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David Smith
My Times piece: We are promised a cost of living budget, the danger of which is that the government gets locked into expensive price freezes, like the long freeze on fuel duty: Why the prospect of a cost of living budget makes me feel uneasy
www.thetimes.com/article/d0ca...
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Why the prospect of a cost of living budget makes me feel uneasy
Price controls can turn into an endless game of Whac-A-Mole if the chancellor is not careful — we need long-term thinking to tackle inflation
https://www.thetimes.com/article/d0cae854-7ac2-4d74-9759-5839f21b38ed?shareToken=75bf651daec30aae0bfe4dfd0aa89c21
about 1 month ago
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My Times piece: We are promised a cost of living budget, the danger of which is that the government gets locked into expensive price freezes, like the long freeze on fuel duty: Why the prospect of a cost of living budget makes me feel uneasy
www.thetimes.com/article/d0ca...
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Why the prospect of a cost of living budget makes me feel uneasy
Price controls can turn into an endless game of Whac-A-Mole if the chancellor is not careful — we need long-term thinking to tackle inflation
https://www.thetimes.com/article/d0cae854-7ac2-4d74-9759-5839f21b38ed?shareToken=75bf651daec30aae0bfe4dfd0aa89c21
about 1 month ago
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Congratulations on spectacularly missing the point.
add a skeleton here at some point
about 1 month ago
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David Smith
My Sunday Times piece: I’ve covered very many budgets over the years but the build-up to this one is the most chaotic and destabilising I can remember: There is no method in this messy pre-budget madness
www.thetimes.com/article/aad8...
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There is no method in this messy pre-budget madness
It has been five unprecedented months of speculation before Rachel Reeves’s second budget and the pain is being felt. Plus: what you think she should announce
https://www.thetimes.com/article/aad8a15c-764a-4807-99f2-e334a0e64fdd?shareToken=9d9ea1dcd628bfac2f4658658426dd26
about 1 month ago
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My Sunday Times piece: I’ve covered very many budgets over the years but the build-up to this one is the most chaotic and destabilising I can remember: There is no method in this messy pre-budget madness
www.thetimes.com/article/aad8...
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There is no method in this messy pre-budget madness
It has been five unprecedented months of speculation before Rachel Reeves’s second budget and the pain is being felt. Plus: what you think she should announce
https://www.thetimes.com/article/aad8a15c-764a-4807-99f2-e334a0e64fdd?shareToken=9d9ea1dcd628bfac2f4658658426dd26
about 1 month ago
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reposted by
David Smith
John Peters
about 1 month ago
It is right that there is an independent economic and fiscal watchdog in the form of the OBR to mark the chancellor’s homework. Current arrangements, however, provide the OBR with a task that is near impossible and invites ridicule (£)
www.thetimes.com/business/eco...
By
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
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Our obsession with the fiscal rules is a very British problem
The UK’s rules are more tightly drawn than those in many other countries and set up a regular tug of war between the OBR and the Treasury before the budget
https://www.thetimes.com/business/economics/article/fiscal-rules-obr-rachel-reeves-budget-kq6gfgp6v
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David Smith
My Times piece: We need an independent fiscal watchdog like the OBR, but asking it to judge whether fiscal rules will be met in five years’ time, and raising taxes if not, is eccentric: Our obsession with the fiscal rules is a very British problem
www.thetimes.com/article/c797...
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Our obsession with the fiscal rules is a very British problem
The UK’s rules are more tightly drawn than those in many other countries and set up a regular tug of war between the OBR and the Treasury before the budget
https://www.thetimes.com/article/c797a07f-3249-469b-88ea-70353bf79f28?shareToken=000696965a45c70788be838482ecb91d
about 1 month ago
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My Times piece: We need an independent fiscal watchdog like the OBR, but asking it to judge whether fiscal rules will be met in five years’ time, and raising taxes if not, is eccentric: Our obsession with the fiscal rules is a very British problem
www.thetimes.com/article/c797...
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Our obsession with the fiscal rules is a very British problem
The UK’s rules are more tightly drawn than those in many other countries and set up a regular tug of war between the OBR and the Treasury before the budget
https://www.thetimes.com/article/c797a07f-3249-469b-88ea-70353bf79f28?shareToken=000696965a45c70788be838482ecb91d
about 1 month ago
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David Smith
John Peters
about 1 month ago
Things could be worse. Economy battered by higher taxes, budget speculation, US tariffs, delayed effect of higher interest rates, yet OBR will revise up forecast for this year’s growth from 1% predicted in March to nearer to 1.5% (£)
www.thetimes.com/business-mon...
By
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
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As economic gloom descends, it’s time to unleash my inner Tigger
The data for growth and unemployment is disappointing and tax rises are coming in the budget, but interest rate cuts and market credibility may also be in sight
https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/economics/article/reasons-for-hope-amid-budget-gloom-cmsvjgs3w
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My Sunday Times piece: In which, amid extraordinary budget chaos and disappointing economic news, I look for reasons to be cheerful, or at least not excessively miserable: As economic gloom descends, it’s time to unleash my inner Tigger
www.thetimes.com/article/d6a2...
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As economic gloom descends, it’s time to unleash my inner Tigger
The data for growth and unemployment is disappointing and tax rises are coming in the budget, but interest rate cuts and market credibility may also be in sight
https://www.thetimes.com/article/d6a2f2a9-ff08-45e2-9d07-f54d43d89b22?shareToken=8ec627c65c0e5905ceabe4e1b199c3ed
about 1 month ago
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David Smith
My Times piece: Hopes that the job market was stabilising were dashed by the latest official figures, which send a warning to the government not to risk further job-destroying policies: Job market hit by budget fears while still reeling from past one
www.thetimes.com/article/896e...
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Job market hit by budget fears while still reeling from past one
After disappointing labour market figures and anticipated tax rises, the government’s Employment Rights Bill will only push the country further to the extreme
https://www.thetimes.com/article/896e36fa-140d-4cd4-a419-cbd2957185b1?shareToken=c60342079e3b57d2d41ae248b7e865de
about 2 months ago
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My Times piece: Hopes that the job market was stabilising were dashed by the latest official figures, which send a warning to the government not to risk further job-destroying policies: Job market hit by budget fears while still reeling from past one
www.thetimes.com/article/896e...
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Job market hit by budget fears while still reeling from past one
After disappointing labour market figures and anticipated tax rises, the government’s Employment Rights Bill will only push the country further to the extreme
https://www.thetimes.com/article/896e36fa-140d-4cd4-a419-cbd2957185b1?shareToken=c60342079e3b57d2d41ae248b7e865de
about 2 months ago
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reposted by
David Smith
John Peters
about 2 months ago
In some ways, the breaking of the taboo on ever raising income tax rates should be welcomed. It would be much better, though, if it were the product of a carefully thought-out tax reform strategy. (£)
www.thetimes.com/business-mon...
By
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
Hard to disagree.
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How Rachel Reeves’ raid on income tax could work
It has been 50 years since the basic rate was raised and it has been untouchable ever since. But in some ways, breaking this taboo should be welcomed
https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/economics/article/income-tax-rates-increase-rachel-reeves-w75lsz0dq
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David Smith
EconomicsInTen
about 2 months ago
Excellent article by
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social
& the PS is fascinating also. Surprised this didn't happen already. We had a vote in class about IR - 2 went higher, 8 or 9 went lower & the rest held. Students had to justify their choice, so it seems reasonable MPC members should as well!
#EconSky
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David Smith
My Sunday Times piece: A rise in income tax rates would be no bad thing if part of a proper tax reform strategy, but not as a panicked response to a failed budget deficit reduction policy, which is the reality: Rachel Reeves’ raid on income tax could work
www.thetimes.com/article/6c0f...
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How Rachel Reeves’ raid on income tax could work
It has been 50 years since the basic rate was raised and it has been untouchable ever since. But in some ways, breaking this taboo should be welcomed
https://www.thetimes.com/article/6c0f1fac-7e79-486f-920c-bec422187944?shareToken=4cef4b65f923d68532c396f486ddac47
about 2 months ago
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My Sunday Times piece: A rise in income tax rates would be no bad thing if part of a proper tax reform strategy, but not as a panicked response to a failed budget deficit reduction policy, which is the reality: Rachel Reeves’ raid on income tax could work
www.thetimes.com/article/6c0f...
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How Rachel Reeves’ raid on income tax could work
It has been 50 years since the basic rate was raised and it has been untouchable ever since. But in some ways, breaking this taboo should be welcomed
https://www.thetimes.com/article/6c0f1fac-7e79-486f-920c-bec422187944?shareToken=4cef4b65f923d68532c396f486ddac47
about 2 months ago
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reposted by
David Smith
My Times piece: Why the Bank of England should not cut interest rates this week, ahead of the budget, and probably not again this year: Bank of England would boost its credibility by not cutting rates
www.thetimes.com/article/e67e...
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Bank of England would boost its credibility by not cutting rates
Though markets are set up for a close decision, they are on balance not expecting a cut. To reduce rates this week could put downward pressure on the pound
https://www.thetimes.com/article/e67ea537-a005-4c1c-bd4e-defd2c4be0a0?shareToken=fa5737b0b8e28898a393418d9ec6550d
about 2 months ago
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My Times piece: Why the Bank of England should not cut interest rates this week, ahead of the budget, and probably not again this year: Bank of England would boost its credibility by not cutting rates
www.thetimes.com/article/e67e...
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Bank of England would boost its credibility by not cutting rates
Though markets are set up for a close decision, they are on balance not expecting a cut. To reduce rates this week could put downward pressure on the pound
https://www.thetimes.com/article/e67ea537-a005-4c1c-bd4e-defd2c4be0a0?shareToken=fa5737b0b8e28898a393418d9ec6550d
about 2 months ago
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David Smith
My Sunday Times piece: Rachel Reeves’s fiscal consolidation in the budget will have a lot more chance of success if it includes spending cuts as well as tax hikes: Spending cuts are crucial for Reeves to get out of this fiscal hole
www.thetimes.com/article/6105...
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Spending cuts are crucial for Reeves to get out of this fiscal hole
Most of the talk is of tax rises, but while the austerity years were unpopular, public spending restraint could save the government up to £165 billion
https://www.thetimes.com/article/6105a2f0-ae1a-4b2d-97fe-ef4f44031e34?shareToken=2a5eb31de2d210190c497e2ccf805bb7
about 2 months ago
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