📣 New preprint "Probabilistic measures afford fair comparisons of AIWP and NWP model output" with Tilmann Gneiting, Tobias Biegert, Kristof Kraus, Eva Walz and Alexander Jordan available at arxiv.org/abs/2506.03744. Some details below 🧵

Useful law for estimating the overall speedup from ML/GPU optimizing subcomponents of scientific code en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amdahl%...

AI NWP models will solve this, right? RIGHT?

Ever been told to ""sleep on it""? 😴 @alanajaskir.bsky.social’s research shows how snoozing helps your brain learn! #sleepbenefits #replay #hippocampus #academicsky #standupforscience

After losing 2 flight directors (my old job), the NOAA Hurricane Hunters are down to minimum staffing for continuous hurricane flights. And if I still had my old job, I'd be looking for new employment before the next onslaught of cuts. yaleclimateconnections.org/2025/03/noaa...

Potentially interesting job for the NOAA crowd - Verisk, one of the biggest modeling firms in the insurance industry, is looking for an experienced atmospheric scientist. Charles Jackson is hiring, who was on my PhD committee and is just a delight to work with, aside from being a kickass scientist.

Pleased to share my views in a new TEDx talk on how AI offers compelling new ways to simulate the Earth with unprecedented resolution and interactivity: youtu.be/I0nxFLh-iBg?...

Excited to share some great collaboration on a new data assimilation framework with transformer encoding arxiv.org/pdf/2502.02884. Exciting times for data assimilation with ML

☀️ APPS ARE OPEN for our Summer'25 MOMENTUM FELLOWSHIP ☀️ - For data sci PhD students @ a U.S. institution - Mentorship of REU students - June 9 - August 1 - 5 research projects based in NYC and/or Boulder, CO 📆 INFO + APPLY by 3/15/25: leap.columbia.edu/education-2/...

Kyleen Liao did stellar work with @karadlamb.bsky.social, Pierre Gentine, and me a while ago on simulating PM2.5 emissions from California wildfires using graph neural networks (GNNs). Her paper with cool new model validation results is out now: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Words of wisdom from @naomioreskes.bsky.social's Science on a Mission.

1/n Please see our new paper in Nature Communications! We used 1,851 tree-ring fire-scar sites and contemporary fire perimeters to quantify the prevalence of wildfire from 1600-1880 compared to 1984-2022. 🧪🌍🔥 Our key findings are as follows ...

Also consistent with my experience that PNAS is actually a terrible journal. I know of several PNAS papers that were either straight wrong or you could not reproduce their results.

I should have led off this thread with the statement: this is how to think about wildlife risk and what we can do about it. No safety intervention makes a community perfectly safe. Many reduce risk. It is a layered and cumulative effort. Think about auto safety to understand what I mean:

Is there a link between #ClimateChange & increasing risk/severity of #wildfire in California--including the still-unfolding disaster? Yes. Is climate change the only factor at play? No, of course not. So what's really going on? [Thread] #CAfire #CAwx #LAfires iopscience.iop.org/a...

Notice power generation - high wind events are bad news for transmission lines. Suspect these statistics are worse for structures/fatalities - high wind fires make up 12% of burn area in western US, but 52% of lives/60% of structures lost, via @climate-guy.bsky.social @pyrogeog.bsky.social research

Skew-T Log-P xkcd.com/3032

“With the rising costs of and vulnerability to extreme weather in a changing climate for the United States, dismantling or defunding NOAA would be a catastrophic error” Good op-ed from Ryan Maue in todays @nytimes: www.nytimes.com/2024/12/01/o...

Arvind, me, and Jonah released a new pre-print on some pen and paper analysis of fundamental failure modes and old school stability analysis for neural PDEs typically used in AI for Science application. arxiv.org/abs/2411.15101. 1/n

Is there a similar conversation we can have among climate scientists as the new administration freezes or cuts federal funding levels for climate related research? Should we be more private sector focused in our collaborations while also doing more public outreach in non-university spaces?

We have an opinion piece at the NYT on the need to operationalize some aspects of climate science. 🧪 Thoughts welcome! (Gift link) www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/o...

+1 Williams (2017): "While extreme drought has been rare in the SE U.S. over the past half century, the intensity and rapid onset of the SE U.S. drought in 2016, and its destructive impacts on wildfire...should motivate preparedness for reoccurrences of droughts of similar or stronger magnitude."

Thrilled to make LEAP's 1st jump into #Bluesky by hi-lighting our next-gen #climate #data scientists, who spearheaded today's ClimateML Methods Workshop + brought together early-career scientists in the #NYC area to share progress @ the intersection of #climate science + #ML! #community #diversity

#HarveyLab @UW_SEFS is recruiting 1-2 funded PhD students in 2025. Research is part of @NSF project testing mechanisms of forest resilience to fire + changing fire regimes in PNW www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/... + opportunities to collab w/ WFFRC westernfireforest.org Apply to SEFS by Nov 15

With the (belated) September data now in, the updated prediction is that 2024 is almost certain to be a new annual surface temperature record, and possibly by more than 0.1ºC. 50% change of exceeding 1.5ºC above the late 19th C.

For several years, I have been mostly focused on ML models and their climate applications. So it felt good to have contributed something more physically motivated; here's a new algorithm we developed to simulate aerosol perturbations (or seeding) in PySDM: github.com/open-atmos/P...

Bidenomics architect Deese set out a cheaper, green-ish “Marshall Plan” this week. @70sbachchan.bsky.social and I looked at key developments that led to this (a lot has happened!) and what’s wrong / missing (some big things). buttondown.com/polycrisisdi...

As the fire season intensifies over parts of the western United States, I wanted to share some results from ongoing work to improve seasonal and subseasonal-to-seasonal scale forecasts of wildfire frequency and burned area with machine learning. The model forecast for July 2024:

My colleagues at LEAP STC are organizing a ML for Earth System Modeling workshop at ICML 2024 this July. Please consider submitting and share the call for papers among interested folks! leap-stc.github.io/ml4esm-works...

An outstanding report from ProPublica - an indictment of how the agencies are mistreating their most valuable resource and it's not just the woefully inadequate level of compensation but also the failure to attend to cancer and emotional trauma and stress. www.propublica.org/article/wild...

Last semester, I asked my students to analyze CRU data. Naturally most worked on the country or town they came from, and they found interesting things. Here is the annual mean precipitation over Iraq. A sudden jump in variability?

Couldn't agree more with this op-ed by Justin Mankin on the importance of public, actionable climate risk information CEA, OMB and Treasury make a similar argument in this public memo on priorities for climate-economic modeling: www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u... www.nytimes.com/2024/01/20/o...

Interesting paper quantifying the smoke related trade-offs from different forms of forest management for wildfire mitigation

If I'm reading this correctly, climate change projections are overestimating water vapor, and therefore underestimating vapor pressure deficit (VPD), in many regions of the planet. For processes tightly correlated with VPD, like wildfire, we are likely underestimating their future impacts. Crap! 🧪🌏

As I pace between the conference center and my hotel, I'm feeling many of the emotions listed here quite acutely!

The Compound Event Network is on bsky! Give them a follow to keep up with the most recent research on compound and cascading climate hazards and risks. ➡️ @compoundnet.bsky.social

“Improving insurance markets does little to address the fact that the core drivers of the ‘climate risk doom loop’ rest in the design of capital markets.” www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/the...

What a gorgeous plot!

Very large portions of the Arctic observed temperatures more than 5°C above the 1981-2010 reference period last month! This was especially prominent in areas of missing sea ice. 🧪⚒️ + Graphic from zacklabe.com/arctic-tempe... + Data from cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dat....

100% true

Thrilled to be watching one of my geo heroes Christopher Jackson right NOW on a @novapbs episode about ancient Earth history and the implications for our lives now! Loving the diversity of scientists featured in this episode too! See it online at youtu.be/FabQSRI7kHo?... #BlackSky

“When I see people watching the horrible tragedy that is happening here as if it were a Super Bowl of victimhood, in which you support one team and really don’t care about the other, empathy becomes very, very selective. You see only some pain. You don’t want to see other pain.”

This 60 Minutes Episode, "The Age of Megafires" aired 16 years ago. I'll never forget Scott Pelley asking me [at 10:15 min mark] "Wait. Did you just say there's a reasonable chance we could lose half of our forests in the West?" Sadly, we are still on that track... www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGdU...

🧪 Scientist? 🟦 New to BlueSky? 👀 Wanna find posts by other people in your area and use the right hashtags in your own posts? 📃 Here’s a list of around 160 science-related feeds and their hashtags. #AcademicSky #PhDSky

Translating historical extreme weather events into a warmer world A new reanalysis-based approach shows how a severe windstorm that occurred in 1903 would produce more rain & stronger winds if it occurred in a warmer world. Hawkins, Compo & Sardeshmukh: esd.copernicus.org/articles/14/...

For now, the world needs oil. We don't have to get it from $500 billion companies that consistently mislead the public on climate change. That's a choice. Me @newyorktimes.bsky.social on Exxon's new deal. HT @robinsonmeyer.bsky.social @climatesollab.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2023/10/18/o...

Heidi Blake has a long piece in the New Yorker on carbon offsets. No matter how bad you think things are, the people involved in big projects keep telling us how much worse things actually are.

Many people take "non-traditional" career paths in academia. My Leading Edge colleagues and I did! We wrote for PLOS Biology about how non-linear careers are increasingly common, but funding agencies and search committees penalize these paths. journals.plos.org/plosbiology/...

We are recruiting a postdoc or research assistant prof to work on a project modeling vegetation and fire. www.hurteaulab.org/blog/ecosyst...

Rather crazy situation unfolding in northern #Quebec. Thunderstorms, some potentially severe, having the potential to ignite new #wildfires. Conditions pretty dry already. Maximum temperature forecasted on wednesday: 29°C (Check the date...October 2nd...)