Trump Announces 5,000% Increase In All Numbers

Well, it's a little clearer now why billionaires are so invested in technology that produces better written emails.

I miss Harry Reid

IN NEW ISSUE: Ethnic voting - @scrosenzweig.bsky.social examines the subject through the lens of group norms & social pressure using data from Africa. Read in more: buff.ly/YYogOYs #polsci @polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com #polsci #poisky

That multiple NYS races show up on this list is a huge indictment of the New York Democratic Party. Lost all races in Nassau County, where candidates ran on their opposition to Mamdani, while just across the Sound in Westchester, Ken Jenkins—who did not—cruised to victory with 66% of the vote.

It's not in this article but the government asserts that the sandwich was thrown at "point blank range", which implies subway sandwiches have defined effective weapon ranges of varying lethality, and I would like to see the government's chart of these ranges.

Great analysis of the situation in Tanzania by Dan Paget

I’m sure I’m not the first to say this, but I can’t see a photo of Bovino without thinking he’s Col. Lockjaw from One Battle After Another

This is an excellent piece on Raila Odinga and how his politics fit into Kenyan politics since independence writ large

#NYC #NoKings 👑

So dangerous that they must be blown into small pieces rather than arrested … unless they are actually captured in which case they may go home with a warning. www.nytimes.com/2025/10/18/u...

This is a great paper that I had a chance to read an earlier version of as a committee member for the @epovb.bsky.social Best Paper award (which it won).

Why most polls overstate support for political violence www.gelliottmorris.com/p/most-polls...

So happy to see this out! We caution against excessive optimism that the opposition will restore countries back to their democratic trajectories after electoral victory. Weakened institutions and the memory of repression makes it tempting to continue rather than buck the trend of autocratization.

More evidence of backlash against politicians associated with political violence

🚨 New Bright Line Watch report on state of US democracy brightlinewatch.org/violence-red... -Expert ratings ~= since April but ↓ substantially since January -US now most closely resembles an illiberal democracy -Partisan gap in democracy ratings highest since 2017 Full thread of results below

Here's 90 minutes with @adamprz.bsky.social, Sue Stokes, Steven Levitsky, and @dziblatt.bsky.social on the state of American democracy right now. It was a great honor for me to be able to convene this set of people to speak together at this moment. Please share! open.spotify.com/episode/0F8W...

We must stand resolutely against political assassination and political violence of all kinds, and just as resolutely against everyone who exploits acts of violence as the pretext or excuse for political repression of political opponents.

Information environment has reached its grotesque conclusion in that there is a very real killer out there who has not been identified, apprehended, or investigated, a detail practically inconsequential to nearly every commentator’s purposes.

I mean what on earth are district court judges supposed to do at this point other than get the message from SCOTUS to let Trump do whatever he wants to no matter what the law says.

🚨🚨🚨Announcing a special issue on “Political Violence in Democracies” published by @jpeaceresearch.bsky.social and edited by @andrearuggeri.bsky.social, U Daxecker, and me. In this very long 🧵, I will introduce the special issue with its 14 articles. doi.org/10.1177/0022...

A new piece I wrote appearing in FOREIGN AFFAIRS today www.foreignaffairs.com/germany/warn...

over the last week, several political scientists i trust have declared trump a dictator and that america is not a full functioning democracy anymore. see here: goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/where-we-a... donmoynihan.substack.com/p/the-author... i think making a list clarifies this:

I am hiring! 1-2 post-docs to join my project on political violence in democracies at @uupeace.bsky.social!

“Conceptualizing Election-Related Violence” in Terrorism and Political Violence www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Now out: new article w/ @niloufersiddiqui.bsky.social - "Conceptualizing Election-Related Violence" - takes stock of the rapidly growing literature on election violence, identifying points of agreement and disagreement across studies on how the concept is defined and disaggregated into sub-types.

Now out: new article w/ @niloufersiddiqui.bsky.social - "Conceptualizing Election-Related Violence" - takes stock of the rapidly growing literature on election violence, identifying points of agreement and disagreement across studies on how the concept is defined and disaggregated into sub-types.

Voyage of the Mimi

The real lesson of the Grok meltdown yesterday is think of the unimaginable power of controlling one of these platform scale LLMs if you don't go as over-the-top as "I'm Hitler 2.0 let's hurry up and gas the remaining Jews". If it's even slightly more subtle immense possibilities for info dominance.

Elon Musk's latest changes to Grok have made the LLM openly antisemitic.

In a June Democratic mayoral primary, Zohran Mamdani received more votes than 22 sitting US Senators received in their most recent general elections.

Netanyahu has spent the better part of two decades trying to strong arm the United States into an unprovoked war against Iran and finally found a president stupid enough to do it for him. Unbelievable.

i just find this so bizarre. searching through texts and doing the reading for myself is how i actually think through ideas! trying to put together a sentence is how i figure out what i actually want to say!

Here's a longer video of Brad Lander's detention just now inside 26 Federal Plaza as he tried to walk a man out of immigration court, by masked federal agents.

See below. The statement is posted as several skeets posted prior to the request.

What will you do when authoritarianism comes to America? Because it's here. Right now.

Candidly, as a civ-mil watcher, this scene at Bragg is freaking me out more than anything else that's happened so far. Just an absolute collapse of professional military norms.

Possible the Gaza protests hurt Ds electorally because they divided their coalition. But the war did that on its own, protests aside. Hard to pin down the electoral impact. But the evidence that American public opinion shifted in favor of the protestors’ cause is pretty clear-cut

State repression of peaceful protests can subject activists to injury and even death but—when broadcast to the world through media—often turns mass opinion against the state. bsky.app/profile/owas...

I don’t think this is consistent with contemporary political science research. See e.g. Wasow 2020 and Enos et al 2019 @owasow.bsky.social @ryanenos.bsky.social

Seems to me like Elon Musk is about the learn the lessons of the Russian oligarchs

😂😂😂

A great Kenyan has rested. RIP.

I'm procrastinating, Stancil is getting dragged over it, and the Rewatchables podcast guys finally covered it, so I guess it's time for what I hope is my last thread ever on Star Wars. Let's do this. 🧵

This was the first semester I taught Democratic Erosion where I taught cases from elsewhere in the world and thought to myself - “that doesn’t actually sound that bad” in comparison to the U.S.

Is anything more perfect than republicans being like, “we are going to ban anti semitism unless it’s from christians, then it’s ok”

A bit late to publicize, but my book is now available in paperback, and at a very good price from Cambridge w. discount code 102323. I know many of you have been dying to get your hands on it, just waiting for the price to come down 😆

A bit late to publicize, but my book is now available in paperback, and at a very good price from Cambridge w. discount code 102323. I know many of you have been dying to get your hands on it, just waiting for the price to come down 😆