Can large language models stand in for human participants? Many social scientists seem to think so, and are already using "silicon samples" in research. One problem: depending on the analytic decisions made, you can basically get these samples to show any effect you want. THREAD 🧵

New paper on precise tool use learning in carrion crows @currentbiology.bsky.social. We show that—like New Caledonian crows—expert carrion crows pay close attention to the working end of their tool, suggesting tool integration into their peripersonal space. 🧵 & vids! 👇 www.cell.com/current-biol...

Ever stared at a table of regression coefficients & wondered what you're doing with your life? Very excited to share this gentle introduction to another way of making sense of statistical models (w @vincentab.bsky.social) Preprint: doi.org/10.31234/osf... Website: j-rohrer.github.io/marginal-psy...

For a coffee person on a budget (me!), there is no better combo….

Experimentology is out today!!! A group of us wrote a free online textbook for experimental methods, available at experimentology.io - the idea was to integrate open science into all aspects of the experimental workflow from planning to design, analysis, and writing.

Unlock hidden patterns in longitudinal data! 🚀 Our new vignette shows how to use brms & easystats to perform Growth Mixture Models, identify unique developmental trajectories, and visualize & interpret your findings with ease. #rstats #brms #easystats easystats.github.io/modelbased/a...

It's bonkers that in academic science we spend hours obsessing over the wording of a paper, but often only one person has seen the code that produced the results! 2/N

B.F Skinner from the paper, “How to discover what you have to say” pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...

📚😅🎉 Yay!! I just submitted the complete manuscript of my upcoming book to the publisher! Learn to easily and clearly interpret (almost) any stats model w/ R or Python. Simple ideas, consistent workflow, powerful tools, detailed case studies. Read it for free @ marginaleffects.com #RStats #PyData

writing another review where I point to the Table 2 Fallacy (doi.org/10.1093/aje/... and doi.org/10.1017/psrm...) and say stop interpreting every single coefficient

I was recommending my students @jonathantemplin.com 's awesome course recordings (jonathantemplin.com/teaching/) to get more in-depth discussion of stan tips and psychometrics models and I discovered there's a new 2024 version. house chores will be more fun for a while.

Important new evidence published today: large-scale DofE trial (N=12,166) found that two universal MH awareness interventions, in secondary schools, led to an *increase* in emotional symptoms at long term (9-12 month) follow up tinyurl.com/4ffday8y Thread below /1

Another video in my series on applied time series and forecasting with the {mvgam} #rstats 📦. This one introduces State Space hierarchical GAMs and GPs for tackling multivariate series youtu.be/2POK_FVwCHk?...

Behaviour goes where reinforcement flows. Choice of task driven by relative success rate. Three preregistered experiments with young kids. Open version here jlnrd.github.io/Publications...

New report! Hehman et al. (2018) "Disproportionate Use of Lethal Force in Policing Is Associated With Regional Racial Biases". Based on the review by @conjugateprior.org, we find a Major Error that affects a core conclusion. We recommend the authors seek a correction. error.reviews/reviews/hehm...

UK universities might misattribute changes in their rankings to their institutional strategies when random fluctuations in the ranking system are a more likely explanation. Preprint: osf.io/preprints/ps... BSky author: @tvpollet.bsky.social #UKHE #AcademicSky

I am beyond excited to announce the imminent arrival of my book. Operationism in Psychology. An Epistemology of Exploration: press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/bo... Brief chapter summaries below (1/10)

12 years. RIP my darling boy.

Also, a reminder that the average effect measured in a population study usually has little predictive value if looking at individual health outcomes: kucharski.substack.com/p/the-popula...

Upgrade your #causalinference arsenal. A revision of our book "Causal Inference: What If" is available at miguelhernan.org/whatifbook Thanks to everyone who suggested improvements, reported typos, and proposed new citations and material. Enjoy the #WhatIfBook plus code and data. Also, it's free.

“No causes in, no causes out”(Cartwright, 1994)

If you missed my talk but still want to learn how to make your R code more reproducible, my slides are here 🙂: daxkellie.quarto.pub/will-your-co... All the links to packages and resources I mentioned are there, so hopefully this can be a nice reference, too! #ESAus2024 #rstats #quartopub 🧪🌏

Also presented by Richard Morey here…. youtu.be/TvUSSaU8tVY?...

All three books I've co-authored are freely available online for non-commercial use: - #Bayesian Data Analysis, 3rd ed (aka BDA3) at stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/book/ - #Regression and Other Stories at avehtari.github.io/ROS-Examples/ - Active Statistics at avehtari.github.io/ActiveStatis...

Using Generalized Additive Models in #rstats but unsure how to interpret them? The {marginaleffects} 📦 by @vincentab.bsky.social is your friend ecogambler.netlify.app/blog/interpr...

there are many reasons why the social sciences remain abyssal pits of methodological despair, but imo the biggest one is that no bridge ever falls down (literally or figuratively) when a social scientist makes an error

Autumn in Ontario ❤️

Back in Ontario 🍁❤️

Our Introduction to Bayesian Data Analysis for Cognitive Science (with Nicenboim and Schad) is now in production with CRC Press. It will remain freely available here: bruno.nicenboim.me/bayescogsci/

1.5 hours of evolutionary game theory in 15 seconds. For something at a slower pace, see the typeset notes: github.com/rmcelreath/V...

Happy that my first first-author paper is now published 🌟 We investigated the immediate effects of brief detached mindfulness interventions on repetitive thinking and affect in daily life. Big thanks to Lars Schulze, Ulrike Zetsche, and @paul-buerkner.bsky.social link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Drafts of the first chapters of my brms Book: Applied Bayesian Regression Modelling Using R and Stan are online: paulbuerkner.com/software/brm... Check it out and let me know what you think!

When sharing data, it's important that your data meet a set of standard data quality criteria (datamgmtinedresearch.com/clean#clean-...) and is also shared along with documentation (datamgmtinedresearch.com/share#what-d...) to allow for reuse and correct interpretation! osf.io/t8upr

Well it would require everyone to be honest. I mean, can you imagine a 'research environment' REF report actually describing the research environment rather than just boasting about 'initiatives' and research groups?

Another example: Peer-based interventions for at-risk teens can lead to increases in problem behavior. The teens teach each other how to be more effective delinquents pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/10510665/

One of my favourite examples of, "hey, we should properly evaluate if this popular intervention works" was a trial of infant simulator program in teens that found that randomisation to caring for a fake baby was associated with *increased* pregnancies www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

New book version up! solomon.quarto.pub/sr2rstan/ This is the {rstan} sibling to my {brms} translation of McElreath's 2nd edition. The 0.0.2 version now has drafts of Chapters 1 through 12. #rstats

New blog post! Have you (like me!) wondered what the ATT means and how it's different from average treatment effects? I use #rstats to explore why we care about the ATE, ATT, and ATU + how to calculate them with observational data! #polisky #episky #econsky www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2024/03...

Introduction to meta-analytic methods for SCEDS by Mariola Moeyaert (Campbell Collaboration webinar) Meta Analysis of Single Case Experimental Designs: An Overview of Current Synthesis Methods youtu.be/bgQ1kO7JGdI?...

The methods discussion group set up by grad students in my department is discussing this paper by @dominikdeffner.bsky.social, @dingdingpeng.the100.ci, and @rmcelreath.bsky.social: osf.io/preprints/ps... Julia Rohrer is an author on at least half of my favorite articles from the past five years.

For those interested, I've started to do my little part here: solomonkurz.netlify.app/blog/2023-04...

Excellent new paper by @mieronen.bsky.social on whether psychologists actually measure anything at all. Lays out a minimal causal condition for measurement, argues that psych vars do not satisfy it & distinguishes between "hard" and "soft measurement."> www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Every time I mention the 3rd edition of my book, people throw money at me and ask when it will be published. Here are some evasive answers and broad details:

Local registration for the 2024 round of my FREE OPEN ONLINE Statistical Rethinking course has begun. I'll open up registration on Sunday 3 December. See theatrical trailer below and other details on the course github page #stats 🧪 github.com/rmcelreath/s...

Great open access textbook on experiment design! (h/t @mcxfrank.bsky.social) experimentology.io

Yes I will offer my online science-focused Statistical Rethinking course again starting in January 2024. Registration going up at the end of this month. All the course materials are already online though, so why wait? Update your posterior starting today 🧪 #stats www.youtube.com/watch?v=FdnM...

Nice tutorial on how to desaturate figures in R for publishers that require greyscale www.cgoodman.com/blog/2020-02...

Here too for the X-boycotters: 1st 1st author manuscript, elated, etc. etc., let’s get to it: We need more high-quality norms in psychology and traditional sampling and norming techniques won’t get us there. MRP can help, though!

I am looking for institutional statements supporting open science practices and scholarship. If you are part of an institution or organization that has made a policy statement about how open science will be encouraged and supported-can you drop a link to that statement in reply? Thanks! #openscience