Spoiler alert 🔥

Excellent chapter-by-chapter discussion of Skinner’s oft-dismissed, but seldom read, Verbal Behavior podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/c...

post a perfect album from the 90s that isn't nirvana, pearl jam, soundgarden, or alice in chains

🔥 New viewpoint paper accepted at Journal of Psychopathology and Clinical Science! I propose a behavioral conceptualization of personality functioning (PF) that reframes the construct in terms of learned self-related repertoires rather than inferred inner structures.

Right on time for the upcoming holidays, and an upcoming paper, this arrived 🙂

The takeaway: Turn-taking isn't a single, monolithic trait that reflects social competence. It’s a multicomponential skill that emerges from the interplay of individual differences, moment-to-moment predictions, and interpersonal adjustments—all shaped by social context. 8/

Conversational turn-taking feels effortless, but it's a complex dance. We find social context—who you're talking to and what you're talking about—fundamentally changes conversational dynamics in both autistic & TD children. 1/ onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/... w @chrismmcox.bsky.social

Can large language models stand in for human participants? Many social scientists seem to think so, and are already using "silicon samples" in research. One problem: depending on the analytic decisions made, you can basically get these samples to show any effect you want. THREAD 🧵

New paper on precise tool use learning in carrion crows @currentbiology.bsky.social. We show that—like New Caledonian crows—expert carrion crows pay close attention to the working end of their tool, suggesting tool integration into their peripersonal space. 🧵 & vids! 👇 www.cell.com/current-biol...

Ever stared at a table of regression coefficients & wondered what you're doing with your life? Very excited to share this gentle introduction to another way of making sense of statistical models (w @vincentab.bsky.social) Preprint: doi.org/10.31234/osf... Website: j-rohrer.github.io/marginal-psy...

For a coffee person on a budget (me!), there is no better combo….

Experimentology is out today!!! A group of us wrote a free online textbook for experimental methods, available at experimentology.io - the idea was to integrate open science into all aspects of the experimental workflow from planning to design, analysis, and writing.

Unlock hidden patterns in longitudinal data! 🚀 Our new vignette shows how to use brms & easystats to perform Growth Mixture Models, identify unique developmental trajectories, and visualize & interpret your findings with ease. #rstats #brms #easystats easystats.github.io/modelbased/a...

It's bonkers that in academic science we spend hours obsessing over the wording of a paper, but often only one person has seen the code that produced the results! 2/N

B.F Skinner from the paper, “How to discover what you have to say” pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...

📚😅🎉 Yay!! I just submitted the complete manuscript of my upcoming book to the publisher! Learn to easily and clearly interpret (almost) any stats model w/ R or Python. Simple ideas, consistent workflow, powerful tools, detailed case studies. Read it for free @ marginaleffects.com #RStats #PyData

writing another review where I point to the Table 2 Fallacy (doi.org/10.1093/aje/... and doi.org/10.1017/psrm...) and say stop interpreting every single coefficient

I was recommending my students @jonathantemplin.com 's awesome course recordings (jonathantemplin.com/teaching/) to get more in-depth discussion of stan tips and psychometrics models and I discovered there's a new 2024 version. house chores will be more fun for a while.

Important new evidence published today: large-scale DofE trial (N=12,166) found that two universal MH awareness interventions, in secondary schools, led to an *increase* in emotional symptoms at long term (9-12 month) follow up tinyurl.com/4ffday8y Thread below /1

Another video in my series on applied time series and forecasting with the {mvgam} #rstats 📦. This one introduces State Space hierarchical GAMs and GPs for tackling multivariate series youtu.be/2POK_FVwCHk?...

Behaviour goes where reinforcement flows. Choice of task driven by relative success rate. Three preregistered experiments with young kids. Open version here jlnrd.github.io/Publications...

New report! Hehman et al. (2018) "Disproportionate Use of Lethal Force in Policing Is Associated With Regional Racial Biases". Based on the review by @conjugateprior.org, we find a Major Error that affects a core conclusion. We recommend the authors seek a correction. error.reviews/reviews/hehm...

UK universities might misattribute changes in their rankings to their institutional strategies when random fluctuations in the ranking system are a more likely explanation. Preprint: osf.io/preprints/ps... BSky author: @tvpollet.bsky.social #UKHE #AcademicSky

I am beyond excited to announce the imminent arrival of my book. Operationism in Psychology. An Epistemology of Exploration: press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/bo... Brief chapter summaries below (1/10)

12 years. RIP my darling boy.

Also, a reminder that the average effect measured in a population study usually has little predictive value if looking at individual health outcomes: kucharski.substack.com/p/the-popula...

Upgrade your #causalinference arsenal. A revision of our book "Causal Inference: What If" is available at miguelhernan.org/whatifbook Thanks to everyone who suggested improvements, reported typos, and proposed new citations and material. Enjoy the #WhatIfBook plus code and data. Also, it's free.

“No causes in, no causes out”(Cartwright, 1994)

If you missed my talk but still want to learn how to make your R code more reproducible, my slides are here 🙂: daxkellie.quarto.pub/will-your-co... All the links to packages and resources I mentioned are there, so hopefully this can be a nice reference, too! #ESAus2024 #rstats #quartopub 🧪🌏

Also presented by Richard Morey here…. youtu.be/TvUSSaU8tVY?...

All three books I've co-authored are freely available online for non-commercial use: - #Bayesian Data Analysis, 3rd ed (aka BDA3) at stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/book/ - #Regression and Other Stories at avehtari.github.io/ROS-Examples/ - Active Statistics at avehtari.github.io/ActiveStatis...

Using Generalized Additive Models in #rstats but unsure how to interpret them? The {marginaleffects} 📦 by @vincentab.bsky.social is your friend ecogambler.netlify.app/blog/interpr...

there are many reasons why the social sciences remain abyssal pits of methodological despair, but imo the biggest one is that no bridge ever falls down (literally or figuratively) when a social scientist makes an error

Autumn in Ontario ❤️

Back in Ontario 🍁❤️

Our Introduction to Bayesian Data Analysis for Cognitive Science (with Nicenboim and Schad) is now in production with CRC Press. It will remain freely available here: bruno.nicenboim.me/bayescogsci/

1.5 hours of evolutionary game theory in 15 seconds. For something at a slower pace, see the typeset notes: github.com/rmcelreath/V...

Happy that my first first-author paper is now published 🌟 We investigated the immediate effects of brief detached mindfulness interventions on repetitive thinking and affect in daily life. Big thanks to Lars Schulze, Ulrike Zetsche, and @paul-buerkner.bsky.social link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Drafts of the first chapters of my brms Book: Applied Bayesian Regression Modelling Using R and Stan are online: paulbuerkner.com/software/brm... Check it out and let me know what you think!

When sharing data, it's important that your data meet a set of standard data quality criteria (datamgmtinedresearch.com/clean#clean-...) and is also shared along with documentation (datamgmtinedresearch.com/share#what-d...) to allow for reuse and correct interpretation! osf.io/t8upr

Well it would require everyone to be honest. I mean, can you imagine a 'research environment' REF report actually describing the research environment rather than just boasting about 'initiatives' and research groups?

Another example: Peer-based interventions for at-risk teens can lead to increases in problem behavior. The teens teach each other how to be more effective delinquents pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/10510665/

One of my favourite examples of, "hey, we should properly evaluate if this popular intervention works" was a trial of infant simulator program in teens that found that randomisation to caring for a fake baby was associated with *increased* pregnancies www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

New book version up! solomon.quarto.pub/sr2rstan/ This is the {rstan} sibling to my {brms} translation of McElreath's 2nd edition. The 0.0.2 version now has drafts of Chapters 1 through 12. #rstats

New blog post! Have you (like me!) wondered what the ATT means and how it's different from average treatment effects? I use #rstats to explore why we care about the ATE, ATT, and ATU + how to calculate them with observational data! #polisky #episky #econsky www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2024/03...

Introduction to meta-analytic methods for SCEDS by Mariola Moeyaert (Campbell Collaboration webinar) Meta Analysis of Single Case Experimental Designs: An Overview of Current Synthesis Methods youtu.be/bgQ1kO7JGdI?...

The methods discussion group set up by grad students in my department is discussing this paper by @dominikdeffner.bsky.social, @dingdingpeng.the100.ci, and @rmcelreath.bsky.social: osf.io/preprints/ps... Julia Rohrer is an author on at least half of my favorite articles from the past five years.

For those interested, I've started to do my little part here: solomonkurz.netlify.app/blog/2023-04...

Excellent new paper by @mieronen.bsky.social on whether psychologists actually measure anything at all. Lays out a minimal causal condition for measurement, argues that psych vars do not satisfy it & distinguishes between "hard" and "soft measurement."> www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Every time I mention the 3rd edition of my book, people throw money at me and ask when it will be published. Here are some evasive answers and broad details: