One of the Trump admin’s explanations for striking Iran—preemption of an imminent attack—put me in mind of my article w/@yujimasumura.bsky.social at @ajpseditor.bsky.social, which examines when govts use the preemption casus belli and how publics react. (1/x) doi.org/10.1111/ajps...

A few more thoughts. USFP/natsec usually works from bottom up, even for prez-directed policies. Bureaucrats, mid-levels, political appointees work the problem, then top people bless it. Diplomacy (JCPOA) works like this. Military planning can move faster w/ prior plans, but similar. 1/

Quick reactions after learning that no, nobody could stop him. 1/ goodauthority.org/news/trump-m... 1/

From the introduction of McGillivray and Smith (2008, page 4):

Perennial reminder of this excellent paper about how secret police forces are swamped with underachievers “We don’t want clever people. We want mediocrities.” (Ungated summary here ajps.org/2019/10/08/w...)

Here is a thread about a true police-shooting incident that I'm going to use to pose a fun little thought problem for anyone anywhere who think there ia a single justifiable reason to ever allow a law enforcement officer to use force on a citizen and remain anonymous. From my back pages:

"Loss Framing in Territorial Disputes" by Andi Zhou, Hein Goemans, and Michael Weintraub. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

Can state-building disrupt rather than stabilize society? Thrilled to have a new article in @apsrjournal.bsky.social w/ @mikealbertus.bsky.social showing that the expansion of state communication networks spurred rebellion for decades in France before the Revolution. 👉 doi.org/10.1017/S000... 🧵1/7

Wrote up this thread for @goodauth.bsky.social (thanks as always to the amazing editorial team!). goodauthority.org/news/what-ha...

it's crazy that 500 years ago, you would see the ruler of your country maybe once in your life and hear whispers that they're the Sun God, but now with social media, you get to see on a daily basis that they're the most unhinged, idiotic, and unhappy person you know

There is growing interest in HPE about social conflict in the run-up to the French Revolution. In a new article at Data & Corpus, I describe the Jean Nicolas Database, a database of 8,516 rebellions in France (1661-1789) 👉Article: doi.org/10.46298/dc.... 👉Database: doi.org/10.7910/DVN/... 🧵1/6

If the government won't bail out my crypto losses, I'm going to become an even bigger libertarian.

👇 Not only is this true, it is literally the only non-revolutionary path to a political transition. There is no option for a regime change where your only allies are the people who always shared your values!

👋 I'm Danielle, and I'm on the #econjobmarket this year! Let's start with a student describing her segregated school: "The school felt temporary. Built like a warehouse with aluminum siding . . . I had a slipshod education" The twist? The student is white, and her school is private. A JMP 🧵 -->

(This also reminds us of the need to introduce some more consistent version-numbering rules, which we'll do in the not-too-distant future.)

We've introduced a minor update to COW's State System Membership Data, updating the coverage through 2024 and making available "blank" dyad-year and directed dyad-year data sets, in addition to the traditional state-year data. correlatesofwar.org/data-sets/st...

ANES Data Release! electionstudies.org/data-center/... The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.

New data, data nerds!

He also made Bob Lighthizer his Deputy USTR & created incredible new forms of protectionism ("voluntary export restraints") during a trade war with 🇯🇵 that Trump has used as his model for how to approach trade with 🇨🇳 today. Please, let's stop it with the Reagan was a Paladin of Free Trade stuff.

Student media rules. They are lapping a lot of the spineless media orgs this year and showing how solidarity is the way.

If you aren't failing you aren't trying. Grad students and new faculty: the most prolific scholars are also the most prolific at getting rejected. Rejections suck but they are a big part of the publication process.

Call for Proposals! APSA R&P is accepting proposals for small grant awards of up to $2,500 for research on R&P. Proposals may address any topic of theoretical, empirical, and practical significance for the study of religion and politics. Apply here: bit.ly/4gRt4py

Announcing the barest of web redesigns at correlatesofwar.org. Look on our new logo, ye mighty, and despair.

Why don't you continue the momentum from APSA and present your work at JAWS? We are still taking submissions! docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...

From Jan–July 2025, U.S. musical instrument exports are 8.4% below the 2021–24 avg. Brazil (-28%), China (-27%), Italy (-23%), and Canada (-12%) saw sharpest Y-o-Y drops. Why? NOT retaliation (ex-China) - Higher input costs - Global economic uncertainty - Consumer substitution away from brands

We are hiring in American Politics! While some areas are listed as preferences, we are open to a wide variety of specializations. I am happy to answer any questions you might have about the position. Please circulate in your networks. appstate.peopleadmin.com/postings/50925

Apocalypse Now, famously a movie about how war is awesome and always turns out well

Good stuff from @dhnexon.bsky.social

App State is hiring in public administration. Join us in the mountains. I am not on the committee, but I am happy to answer any questions. appstate.peopleadmin.com./postings/51187

American University is currently hiring two faculty positions in international affairs! Assistant Professor, International Security: www.higheredjobs.com/faculty/deta... Assistant Professor, Economic Security jobs.chronicle.com/job/37868709...

We are seeking a new leadership team for WiLS! If you might be interested (or just want to chat and see what's involved), please get in touch with Ellie, Gisela, or Leslie by September 5 (feel free to DM us here if you need contact info). Polisky Gendersky

"It's like a PhD in every field!" "Can it reliably do college-level work, such as accurately identifying and summarizing pertinent information?" "No." "So what is really does is sound like an expert to people who aren't experts in that field?" "Yeah! That's what everyone wants, right?"

The full release of the ANES 2024 Time Series #Data is now available. More details here: electionstudies.org/anes-announc...

Per usual, great stuff on the train wreck that is US foreign policy from @profsaunders.bsky.social

Collingwood, Morín & Tzelgov's recent paper shows voters often anticipate threats to local industries—and vote to protect them. From marijuana growers in CA to coal workers in WV, economic self-interest drives voting patterns. #EconVoting Read more: link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Wesleyan GOVT department is hiring! Open subfield (IR/CP/PT), but we have interest in scholars of human rights, migration, environment, global health, inequality, or international law. I am on the committee, so feel free to reach out with any questions about the position or Wes!

The new dataset contains 991 records, and can be downloaded and merged into the preliminary release of the pre and post-election survey data using the 2024 Case ID variable (V240001). electionstudies.org/data-center/...

New ANES data release: A preliminary release of the data from a survey administered to cohabiting spouses or partners of sampled individuals on the FtF and Web is now available as a standalone file.

UC Berkeley is hiring an Assistant Professor this fall, with a preference for candidates in International Relations, American Politics, or Public Law. I am on the committee and glad to answer questions. Please apply! aprecruit.berkeley.edu/JPF04948

{tinyplot} 0.3.0 is out! 🚨 It's a lightweight #Rstats 📦 to draw beautiful and complex plots, using an ultra-simple and concise syntax. This is a massive release! @gmcd.bsky.social @zeileis.org and I worked hard to add tons of new themes and plot types. Check it out! grantmcdermott.com/tinyplot/

Are you: ✅ A young scholar in econ, poli sci, or law ✅ Working on institutions, broadly defined ✅ Interested in spending a week in Italy with amazing faculty If so, please apply to this year’s Coase Institute Workshop! It’s a transformative experience for many, and always fun. I’ll be there.

This is the point. Trump and his admin use this language a lot, institutionalizing a particular view of the presidency. The individual occupying the Oval Office is, in their theory, the embodiment of the government, not a servant administering the law as written. And, that’s not democracy.

Just as a practical matter, consider how unheard of it is to expand an already significant federal agency by 1,000% in two or three years. WW2 mobilization or the early 60s Moon race are the right sort of analogies

With this budget, ICE alone would have nearly as large a detention operation as all 50 states' prison systems combined. Bigger budget than the Marine Corps. Police-state levels of spending

Three recent events underscored not only the continued relevance of naval power in international politics, but also its growing importance in the 21st century, @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.