Gabe Lenz
@gabelenz.bsky.social
đ€ 922
đ„ 582
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Professor of Political Science at UC Berkeley
pinned post!
New paper. What happens when a presidential candidate steps way out of line, not only with the public, but even with his own voters? And on a highly salient issue? Candidates typically donât do thatâtheyâre too strategic. But Trump isnât. Heâs good for social science. đ§”
6 months ago
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Ethan Mollick
16 days ago
I understand the fear and anger. But also: 1) It is connected to the belief that AI is fake and going to vanish, which means that critics who should be helping shape AI use through policy and collective work are sitting it out 2) Lumping all AI criticism/talk into us vs. "tech bros" doesn't help
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New paper in PNAS: Your homicide risk follows you around the country. If youâre born in the historically violent Wild West, Appalachian Highlands, or Deep South, a higher risk of violent death trails you wherever you go. đ§”1/14
18 days ago
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Jake Grumbach
4 months ago
Incredible parallels in this Berinsky &
@gabelenz.bsky.social
paper. Politicians didn't stand up to Joe McCarthy in large part because they incorrectly inferred McCarthy/ism was extremely popular. Not standing up to McCarthy was a kind of 1950s Popularism gated
academic.oup.com/poq/article/...
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Jonathan Ladd
4 months ago
Research: Believing that the mass public in the opposing party supports undemocratic tactics leads people to be more supportive of undemocratic tactics themselves. Being assured that a majority of your opponents oppose such radical tactics increases support for democratic norms
osf.io/my987/download
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https://osf.io/my987/download
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Jonathan Ladd
6 months ago
I went on Washington Journal to talk about Elon Musk and third parties.
www.c-span.org/program/wash...
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Randy Besco
9 months ago
Donât trust an observational model with a bunch of arbitrary control variables
@gabelenz.bsky.social
@alexandersahn.bsky.social
Lenz, Gabriel S., and Alexander Sahn. "Achieving statistical significance with control variables and without transparency." Political Analysis
doi.org/10.1017/pan....
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Achieving Statistical Significance with Control Variables and Without Transparency | Political Analysis | Cambridge Core
Achieving Statistical Significance with Control Variables and Without Transparency - Volume 29 Issue 3
https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2020.31
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New paper. What happens when a presidential candidate steps way out of line, not only with the public, but even with his own voters? And on a highly salient issue? Candidates typically donât do thatâtheyâre too strategic. But Trump isnât. Heâs good for social science. đ§”
6 months ago
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Jonathan Ladd
9 months ago
Everything indicates that the Tesla protests are really eroding his wealth and are the only thing causing enough business/financial pain to him to possibly change his behavior.
www.teslatakedown.com
to find a protest near you this weekend. Something you can do to really make a difference.
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Jonathan Ladd
9 months ago
One way to think about what's happening with Trump getting elected and then waging war on the Constitution and laws is that: It's taken less than 9 months for Trump v. U.S. to almost break the American republic. /1
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Our institutions depend on a coalition of moderate Republican senators emerging. Give Schumer space to help it form.
10 months ago
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Buffy Wicks
10 months ago
Permitting reform: sexy? Not so much. Important? Crucially. Red tape trips up so many critical housing, transportation, renewable energy & climate resilience projects â and we can fix this. Here I talk to my colleagues about why itâs so important that we do.
www.youtube.com/shorts/v17C4...
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Why should permitting reform matter to Californians in 2025?
YouTube video by Buffy Wicks for Assembly
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/v17C4a0GtWs
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An underappreciated reason why Harris lost was flat real disposable income growth in the election year. RDI was above trend, but voters care about growth in the election year itself. Between Jan. and Nov. 2024, nothing happened.
11 months ago
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Adam Bonica
11 months ago
New 2024 data: Over 50% of GOP fundraising now comes from just 100 mega-donors. Trumpâs embrace of the billionaire classâand their embrace of himâwill only supercharge this trend.
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Jonathan Ladd
11 months ago
More evidence for the long-term stability and persistence of party id. A change induced by a major early life experience does not decay.
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Jonathan Ladd
almost 2 years ago
Imagine if employees of the IRS could give out cards to their friends and family and those with cards didn't have to pay taxes. I could see an argument that this is even worse.
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Joe Noonan
almost 2 years ago
Since their rollout, I have made heavy use of the custom GPT tools in ChatGPT. Here is a thread of some of the tools that I use regularly (all of them require ChatGPT 4). I think they are most useful for people doing quantitative social science, but some are more general.
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It's added to the fun of writing papers in markdown that copilot tries to write not only the R code but also the paper, suggesting what I should say next. The spooky part is that once in a while it guesses correctly.
almost 2 years ago
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Matt Grossmann
almost 2 years ago
Across 93 countries, the preferences of the lowest socioeconomic group, rather than those of the median or upper strata, are most predictive of realized redistribution. This finding contradicts the expectations of both leading experts and regular citizens.
www.nber.org/papers/w31974
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Whose Preferences Matter for Redistribution: Cross-country Evidence
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
https://www.nber.org/papers/w31974
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Paul Krugman
almost 2 years ago
NY Fed measure of underlying inflation also more or less says we won the war
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Been working on the unicorn problem for years only to read itâs been solved by GPT-4. AGI must be close.
almost 2 years ago
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We should adopt the phase planetary destabilization in place of global warming. It sounds worse and is the even greater threat posed by global warming. lhttps://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1259855
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Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet
Developments in the planetary boundaries concept provide a framework to support global sustainability.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1259855
about 2 years ago
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Paul Krugman
about 2 years ago
In the aftermath of the financial crisis austerity advocates claimed that contractionary policy was actually expansionary bc of confidence â which I mocked as belief in the Confidence Fairy. It seems to me now that we're seeing a somewhat parallel myth: the Credibility Fairy 1/
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The real threat to humanity is humans, not AI. Every decade technology makes it easier for a small group to wipe us out. Will AI improve fast enough to protect us from ourselves? Sure hope so.
about 2 years ago
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I'm curious to hear from IR scholars how much Trump's four years (and the possibility of more) lies behind this increase. How much of it is because Trump undermined the perception of a US backed world order? polisky
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about 2 years ago
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Sure wish Elon Musk spent $44B on catching oumaumua then on wrecking twitter.
phys.org/news/2022-01...
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If launched by 2028, a spacecraft could catch up with 'Oumuamua in 26 years
In October 2017, the interstellar object 'Oumuamua passed through our solar system, leaving many questions in its wake. Not only was it the first object of its kind ever observed, but the limited data...
https://phys.org/news/2022-01-spacecraft-oumuamua-years.html
about 2 years ago
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simine vazire
about 2 years ago
Very excited that
@i4replication.bsky.social
is going to be doing annual stress tests of papers published in Psych Science. Itâs amazing to see what theyâve done in econ & poli sci, and great that theyâre expanding to psych!
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An example of the ever present tendency of elites to extract from non-elites. Workers are being forced to pay thousands of dollars to quit.
www.nytimes.com/2023/11/20/m...
about 2 years ago
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Exemplifies two well established tendencies in American politics: 1. Knowledge about party positions is surprisingly low. 2. People over attribute responsibility for everything to the sitting president.
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about 2 years ago
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Brendan Nyhan
about 2 years ago
Feature suggestion: Editorial Manager Clippy
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Political Science should beat other fields to this obvious next step in improving transparency and reproducibility. Pre-register or justify! From a nice Data Colada post:
datacolada.org/115
about 2 years ago
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Gabe OrtĂz
about 2 years ago
NYT covering Hillary Clintonâs âdeplorablesâ remark vs NYT covering Donald Trumpâs âverminâ remark.
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Mark Copelovitch
about 2 years ago
Suffering From Inflationâąïž update, real wages edition
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Want your findings to replicate? Want to actually discover true things? This new study shows you should preregister, have high power, and open materials.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
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High replicability of newly discovered social-behavioural findings is achievable - Nature Human Beha...
Four labs discovered and replicated 16 novel findings with practices such as preregistration, large sample sizes and replication fidelity. Their findings suggest that with best practices, high replica...
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-023-01749-9
about 2 years ago
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Eirik Eylands Brandsaas
about 2 years ago
Wildest thing about the American economy I've learned after two years at the Federal Reserve: Almost 1% of US GDP is residential realtor commissions!
fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1b2IC
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I just spent three hours reformatting a paper for submission after it sent back on technical grounds. Why do we do this to ourselves? Journals outside of political science often require formatting compliance only after acceptance. Stop the torture! Polisky
about 2 years ago
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Joey Politanođłïžâđ
about 2 years ago
I love democracy
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Omar Wasow
about 2 years ago
âOverall, 73 percent of Gazans favored a peaceful settlement to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. On the eve of Hamasâs October 7 attack, just 20 percent of Gazans favored a military solution that could result in the destruction of the state of Israel.â
www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/what-...
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What Palestinians Really Think of Hamas
Before the war, Gazaâs leaders were deeply unpopularâbut an Israeli crackdown could change that.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/what-palestinians-really-think-hamas
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4/ I write this as much for myself as for others. âThe first principle is not to fool yourself â and you are the easiest person to fool.â - Richard Feynman
about 2 years ago
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3/ If your findings are real, lower p-values will always be more common than higher p-values. If you're not seeing that in your work, you're not being honest with yourself.
about 2 years ago
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2/ Real phenomena yield lower p-values more often than higher ones.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
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p-Curve and Effect Size: Correcting for Publication Bias Using Only Significant Results - Uri Simon...
Journals tend to publish only statistically significant evidence, creating a scientific record that markedly overstates the size of effects. We provide a new to...
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1745691614553988
about 2 years ago
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1/ In writing peer reviews and promotion letters, I notice p-values often hover near the 0.05 threshold. This pattern raises eyebrows. We know that such a p-value distribution indicates false positives, not genuine findings.
about 2 years ago
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Your regular reminder that if you think a paper should be published, you have to make a case for it in your review. Editors use the length of reviews as a signal for quality and effort, so make the case for the paper. So many good papers get rejected because reviewers fail to make the case.
about 2 years ago
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simine vazire
about 2 years ago
Read this. There is a lot of fear of too much criticism in psychology, talk of protecting ECRs from this threat, etc. What about protecting ECRs from the damage of being silenced or worse when they raise legitimate criticism of famous peopleâs work?
https://www.theorgplumber.com/posts/statement/
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A Post Mortem on the Gino Case | The Organizational Plumber
My perspective on the Gino-Ariely scandal, and what we should learn from it.
https://www.theorgplumber.com/posts/statement/
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Will Jordan
about 2 years ago
An illuminating survey experiment from WaPo-Schar VA poll. âSupport preventingâ vs âoppose allowingâ â a gap of 25 points. Demonstrates softness of opinion on this issue but also power of status quo bias that likely applies in many contexts.
www.washingtonpost.com/education/20...
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"Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux
about 2 years ago
One of the things I find striking in the current crisis around Gaza is how clearly it displays that the strategic decisions states (& non-state/quasi-state actors) make are often more the product of internal politics & ideology than external interests & strategic calculations. 1/
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Your semi-annual reminder to put your hand on your wallet when you encounter interaction findings. Only a quarter replicated in the ManyLabs replication project. They offer researchers just too many degrees of freedom. You can trust pre-registered ones more.
about 2 years ago
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