Excited and grateful to learn that my book was reviewed In the latest issue of @foreignaffairs.com: www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/no-b...

German government is planning to invest approximately €350 bln until 2041 into materiel procurement. FY25 includes 8.2 bln, FY26 will include 22.3 bln. The special budget is additionally seeing draw-downs of ~75 bln until 2027, the final year of the fund. www.hartpunkt.de/bundeswehr-p...

💥 EU and US close in on 15% tariff trade deal that would mirror agreement struck with Japan By the one and only @andybounds.bsky.social on.ft.com/4fa5N1k

At the end of the current round of trade wars, I would like to see some political scientists look for correlations between (1) how dependent countries feel on the US for security and (2) how strongly they pushed back on the tariffs.

The NATO Hague Summit was a success against admittedly low expectations, but significant, substantive work remains, not the least of which is operationalising the spending commitment and building a post-industrial defence industrial base. @breakingdefense.com breakingdefense.com/2025/07/post...

"We are here to argue now that policymakers are spending far too much time looking backward, fighting the last war. They should be spending much more time examining what’s emerging as a new China Shock. Spoiler alert: This one could be far worse." www.nytimes.com/2025/07/14/o...

I see these tariff letters more as clumsy attempts at negotiating rather than likely tariff outcomes, but nevertheless this is quite a mess.

Absolutely striking numbers. 65% of Germans support Germany significantly increasing its defence expenditures to reach NATO’s 5%* goal. *it’s a 3,5%+ goal, to be exact.

Beloit, WI revitalized its waterfront and chose this way to celebrate it: by bringing to life Georges Seurat's "A Sunday Afternoon on the Island of La Grande Jatte."

💥 Brussels has told EU capitals that Trump’s 10pct tariffs are unlikely to be avoided, and that the bloc must face up to an unpalatable choice between concession or retaliation, officials told @andybounds.bsky.social & @pmdfoster.bsky.social Big shift in tone; mega scoop on.ft.com/4dyCRiq

Looks like Chinese online stores Temu and Shein are reacting to increasingly tricky market access situation in the US by trying to increase market shares in Europe. According to a German trade association, their online advertisement is up 40% since April in Germany: www.spiegel.de/panorama/tem...

Xi’s visit to Moscow this week is a usefully-timed reminder to European policymakers of the hard ceiling on China-Europe relations in the coming years. My @gmfus.bsky.social colleagues put a neat little video together laying it out... More here: www.linkedin.com/posts/andrew...

A few quick thoughts on how China is likely to deal with the current situation with India-Pakistan (since I am getting some questions...)

💥 EU to make €50bn offer to Trump to address the “problem” in the trade relationship, bloc negotiator @marossefcovic.bsky.social tells @financialtimes.com, adding that he was making “certain progress” towards striking a deal with the US on.ft.com/4jILqd6 w @andybounds.bsky.social

Germany has asked the EU to activate an emergency clause that would allow it to rapidly increase defense investment without breaching the bloc's spending rules.

US yields are rising sharply versus other advanced countries. That rise in US - foreign rate differentials (blue) should lift the Dollar, but it isn't. This is inviting lots of speculation that a "fiscal" or "policy chaos" risk premium is building, which is becoming harder and harder to refute...

Breaking! China has announced the imposition of 50 per cent tariffs on all American imports in response to a 50 per cent tariff increases on its goods from US President Donald Trump. www.scmp.com/economy/chin...

Seeking an introductory text for India and the world?

For anyone who missed this very important news, Jennie the guide dog crossed the floor of the House of Commons yesterday to be stroked by Labour MPs She was then summoned by the Lib Dem Chief Whip for a very stern word

Welcome to debt brake d-day. Germany is quick to adjust to the new global order and is doing so in force. @davideoneglia.bsky.social shows the package outstrips the spending booms that came with the postwar Marshall Plan and with German Reunification in the early 1990s.

CDU/CSU &SPD have just proposed a sea change in German fiscal policy: - defence spending above 1% of GDP exempt from debt brake - 10-year €500bn special fund for infrastructure - looser debt rules for states - further debt-brake reform in new Bundestag

Donate some blood this month in honor of James Harrison. www.npr.org/2025/03/03/n...

The only theme hotter than AI is German defense stocks:

Excellent thoughts (as always) on how to tackle the German debt brake and potential special funds from @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social (in German)

"Wall Street is once again creating and selling securities backed by everything—the more creative the better...Data-center bonds are backed by lease payments from companies that rent out computing capacity." www.wsj.com/finance/inve...

(Bloomberg) - Microsoft Corp. has begun canceling leases for a substantial amount of datacenter capacity in the US, a move that may reflect concerns about whether it’s building more AI computing than it will need over the long term, TD Cowen said in a report. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

If you are following the momentous developments in the US-German relationships after elections in both countries, my book “No Better Friend?”offers the background on the dynamics shaping events. @hurstpublishers.bsky.social is offering a 25% discount at the moment. Out in the US in the coming days.

A worthwhile thread on the quickly changing US-German and US-European relationship

"Such a fine, sunny day, and I have to go... What does my death matter, if through us, thousands of people are awakened and stirred to action?" Eighty two years ago today Sophie Scholl was executed, aged 21, for her part in the non-violent, anti-Nazi group the White Rose.

waited for a bit to listen to this because i thought it'd be brutal, and it is v brutal. what a loss. www.npr.org/2025/02/20/g...

Europe is full of tributes to the US. The Churchill-Roosevelt statue in Bond St. The Avenue du President Wilson in Paris and Roosevelt metro station. Kennedy platz in Berlin. The idea that the Americans are the good guys is deeply woven into our culture

The top diplomat reiterated the importance of standing up to Moscow, calling the war in Ukraine a “major challenge to the rule of law.'

It is increasingly difficult to write anything that is not immediately overtaken by events. In this piece @lianafix.bsky.social and I take a look at the upcoming German elections and lay out why forming a stable government will be of the utmost importance: www.foreignaffairs.com/germany/germ...

US consumer debt outstanding unexpectedly surged by the most on record in December, reflecting massive increases in credit-card balances and non-revolving credit

♥️

Okay, so I've made a #German foreign policy starter pack with academics working on German foreign and security policy. I've probably forgotten a ton of people, so please let me know whom to add.

Trump wants to negotiate with China first as his administration pivots from tariffs to engagement… For now… Scoop from my @bloomberg.com colleague Jenny Leonard. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Exclusive: Biden’s administration plans one additional round of restrictions on the export of AI chips from Nvidia and AMD just days before leaving office, a final push in his effort to keep advanced technologies out of the hands of China and Russia

Not sure this would get very far in DC... or in Germany for that matter...

Happy New Year from the Izu Shaboten Zoo!

In @financialtimes.com, I argue that the United States has not underwritten European security — not really — for decades now. No matter what happens next, European defense depends on Europeans themselves. Read paywall free: on.ft.com/4iSWlkf

🚘 🔋 - EU plans to build EV battery supply chains are in trouble • Despite pledges to become clean tech leader, EU struggles with lack of skilled workers & high energy costs • EV factories have high capital requirements & low margins, making sector difficult one to operate in

Germany headed for snap election after Olaf Scholz loses confidence vote https://www.ft.com/content/39d8e496-ddd2-486d-9306-da699687ee9a

An excellent piece discussing the role of Guam in US military planning against China’s potential missile threat by @mgerrydoyle.bsky.social www.reuters.com/graphics/USA...

“Germany is our biggest question mark” - Rhodium’s take on the latest US chip controls c/o Reva Goujon & Ben Reynolds rhg.com/research/sla...

This! Absolutely this. “Perhaps that’s why Interstellar now feels like one of the greatest films ever made about being a parent.” www.vulture.com/article/inte...

Intel has reached a final deal for a nearly $7.9b Chips Act grant & will get at least $1b of that this year The award is smaller than what was proposed in March (not bc of Intel’s financial woes, but rather bc of a military chips deal) Free link &🧵: 1/ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Berlin friends! As my old friend @davideisler.bsky.social just alerted me, my book “No better Friend? The United States and Germany since 1945” is now available at bookstores in your town. @hurstpublishers.bsky.social