Ian Hall (@drianhall.bsky.social)

Perhaps the most shocking statistic that China published last year was the total number of births. At only 7.92 million in 2025, total births were less than half of the number a decade ago… | Rhodium Group Perhaps the most shocking statistic that China published last year was the total number of births. At only 7.92 million in 2025, total births were less than half of the number a decade ago. Demographic headwinds to household consumption growth are a “gray rhino” for China’s economy—a clearly visible threat that is nonetheless neglected. The 2025 data pointing to double the population loss from 2024 suggest the rhino is now charging directly at China’s political and economic ambitions. Our estimates of trends in death rates suggest that China will lose nearly 60 million people in the next decade, almost the size of France, with the annual decline in 2035 to hit 7.6 million. The headlines are bad, the regional breakdown is worse. The country’s most developed provinces are seeing falling populations, which will impact overall consumption and the future productivity of the labor force. The impact on household consumption is obvious, but the larger problem for Beijing may be the hit to social security funds. The fiscal subsidy to social security funds rose to a record 2.9 trillion yuan last year, or 10.1% of general budget spending, and appears set to rise in the future. https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:7452713961168195584/